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Expected Score Ladder 2024

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

 

Wow

Carlton and Giants

 

Even Adelaide and Saint Kilda

 

Brutal 

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    6 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

    Wow

    Carlton and Giants

     

    Even Adelaide and Saint Kilda

     

    Brutal 

    Not surprised.

    Their accuracy has been unsustainable recently. 15.4, 17.6, 18.8, 12.6.

    You don't win prelims and GF's if you have less scoring shots than the oppo and have to rely on accuracy.

  • Quote
    • Like 2
     

    Hawthorn was 0-5 with a percentage of 64%. Their turnaround has been ridiculous. 

     

    Edited by praha

  • Quote
    • Like 4

    The finals are going to fantastic this year. Glad to be back on board to watch neutral footy (hopefully) without the Pies in September.

    How far can Freo, Dogs and Cats go are my curiosities? (And of course the Dees if we make it lol)

    Hawks are such a wild turn of events, I can't comprehend them getting there and doing something, it's too weird. Get back down the bottom please.

    I was listening to Hoyney and he still puts Carlton and Sydney MILES ahead of every other team in scoring from turn overs the most important stat for winning a flag. But Sydney has had a very average month and Brisbane are climbing . You can't go past any of those 3 teams to be there on GF day at present I think. But who knows.

     

     

    Edited by John Demonic

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    • Like 2

    Here is my expected scores ladder based on expected wins. Rather than distilling the expected scores for a given match down to a win/loss/draw, the xWin % for a given match is the probability of the team winning given the expected scores.

     

     

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 3
     

    I wonder what the ladder would look like if you also included expected inside 50 kicks to leading forwards. 
     

    I.e. if entries went to leading players as opposed to on top of/over/completely missing the target that doesn’t result in a score. 
     

    Too time consuming I know, but I’d love to know. 

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    Ol Squiggle can actually vary a bit depending upon its own algorithms.

    I often do it 3/5 times and take the 'mean' 

    As such...

    Screenshot_20240725_074549_Chrome.jpg

  • Quote

    The Dogs are a real chance for the Expected Score Flag this year

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