Jump to content

Expected Score Ladder 2024

Demonland
Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

 

Wow

Carlton and Giants

 

Even Adelaide and Saint Kilda

 

Brutal 

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    6 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

    Wow

    Carlton and Giants

     

    Even Adelaide and Saint Kilda

     

    Brutal 

    Not surprised.

    Their accuracy has been unsustainable recently. 15.4, 17.6, 18.8, 12.6.

    You don't win prelims and GF's if you have less scoring shots than the oppo and have to rely on accuracy.

  • Quote
    • Like 2
     

    Hawthorn was 0-5 with a percentage of 64%. Their turnaround has been ridiculous. 

     

    Edited by praha

  • Quote
    • Like 4

    The finals are going to fantastic this year. Glad to be back on board to watch neutral footy (hopefully) without the Pies in September.

    How far can Freo, Dogs and Cats go are my curiosities? (And of course the Dees if we make it lol)

    Hawks are such a wild turn of events, I can't comprehend them getting there and doing something, it's too weird. Get back down the bottom please.

    I was listening to Hoyney and he still puts Carlton and Sydney MILES ahead of every other team in scoring from turn overs the most important stat for winning a flag. But Sydney has had a very average month and Brisbane are climbing . You can't go past any of those 3 teams to be there on GF day at present I think. But who knows.

     

     

    Edited by John Demonic

  • Quote
    • Like 2

    Here is my expected scores ladder based on expected wins. Rather than distilling the expected scores for a given match down to a win/loss/draw, the xWin % for a given match is the probability of the team winning given the expected scores.

     

     

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 3
     

    I wonder what the ladder would look like if you also included expected inside 50 kicks to leading forwards. 
     

    I.e. if entries went to leading players as opposed to on top of/over/completely missing the target that doesn’t result in a score. 
     

    Too time consuming I know, but I’d love to know. 

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    Ol Squiggle can actually vary a bit depending upon its own algorithms.

    I often do it 3/5 times and take the 'mean' 

    As such...

    Screenshot_20240725_074549_Chrome.jpg

  • Quote

    The Dogs are a real chance for the Expected Score Flag this year

  • Quote

    • Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
    Reply to this topic...
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • NON-MFC: Round 06

      The Easter Round kicks off in style with a Thursday night showdown between Brisbane and Collingwood, as both sides look to solidify their spots inside the Top 4 early in the season. Good Friday brings a double-header, with Carlton out to claim consecutive wins when they face the struggling Kangaroos, while later that night the Eagles host the Bombers in Perth, still chasing their first victory of the year. Saturday features another marquee clash as the resurgent Crows look to rebound from back-to-back losses against a formidable GWS outfit. That evening, all eyes will be on Marvel Stadium where Damien Hardwick returns to face his old side—the Tigers—coaching the Suns at a ground he's never hidden his disdain for. Sunday offers two crucial contests where the prize is keeping touch with the Top 8. First, Sydney and Port Adelaide go head-to-head, followed by a fierce battle between the Bulldogs and the Saints. Then, Easter Monday delivers the traditional clash between two bitter rivals, both desperate for a win to stay in touch with the top end of the ladder. Who are you tipping this week and what are the best results for the Demons?

        • Thanks
      • 9 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • REPORT: Essendon

      What were they thinking? I mean by “they” the coaching panel and team selectors who chose the team to play against an opponent who, like Melbourne, had made a poor start to the season and who they appeared perfectly capable of beating in what was possibly the last chance to turn the season around.It’s no secret that the Demons’ forward line is totally dysfunctional, having opened the season barely able to average sixty points per game which means there has been no semblance of any system from the team going forward into attack. Nevertheless, on Saturday night at the Adelaide Oval in one of the Gather Round showcase games, Melbourne, with Max Gawn dominating the hit outs against a depleted Essendon ruck resulting from Nick Bryan’s early exit, finished just ahead in clearances won and found itself inside the 50 metre arc 51 times to 43. The end result was a final score that had the Bombers winning 15.6 (96) to 8.9 (57). On balance, one could expect this to result in a two or three goal win, but in this case, it translated into a six and a half goal defeat because they only managed to convert eight times or 11.68% of their entries. The Bombers more than doubled that. On Thursday night at the same ground, the losing team Adelaide managed to score 100 points from almost the same number of times inside 50.

        • Sad
        • Clap
        • Like
      • 0 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PODCAST: Essendon

      The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 14th April @ the all new time of 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we dissect another Demons loss at Kardinia Park to the Cats in the Round 04. Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show. If you would like to leave us a voicemail please call 03 9016 3666 and don't worry no body answers so you don't have to talk to a human.

        • Thanks
      • 55 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • PREGAME: Fremantle

      The Demons return home to the MCG in search of their first win for the 2025 Premiership season when they take on the Fremantle Dockers on Saturday afternoon. Who comes in and who goes out?

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 174 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • VOTES: Essendon

      Max Gawn leads the Demonland Player of the Year ahead of Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Kade Chandler and Jake Bowey. Your votes please. 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 & 1.

        • Thanks
      • 24 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland

    • POSTGAME: Essendon

      Despite a spirited third quarter surge, the Demons have slumped to their worst start to a season since 2012, remaining winless and second last on the ladder after a 39-point defeat to Essendon at Adelaide Oval in Gather Round.

        • Vomit
        • Sad
        • Thanks
      • 271 replies
      Demonland
      Demonland
    View All