PREGAME: Rd 08 vs Geelong

[dazzledavey36 55,853]

56 minutes ago, binman said:

Real contenders don’t give up 20 goals.

 

 

49 minutes ago, Webber said:

This. 

Well hang on, this factually incorrect.

Doesn't hurt to go back over time and see where other premiership teams and contenders have conceded huge amount of scores in games.

Collingwood and Brisbane 2023

Geelong and Sydney 2022

Richmond 2017

Happy to add more if you'd like? These just small examples.

What does this prove? Nothing.. Just because you're a contender doesn't mean you're vulnerable to conceding big scores.

Sometimes it's a good thing to have games where you do concede big score because it gives you the opportunity to reassess your team defensive structure. Not even a bad thing if Carlton failed whatever test you're thinking of. Geelong are just a bloody good side with a strong offensive and forward structure.

Simon Goodwin has been on record in stating this over the last few years.

Edited April 28, 2024 by dazzledavey36

[No. 31 1,382]

58 minutes ago, binman said:

Almost nailed it.

Danger is an A grader = two b grader hammy.

And I'm suspending my assessment of the blues.

I mean they were soundly beaten by the cats, with late goals flattering them. A reality check

Real contenders don’t give up 20 goals.

If i accept the prevailing wisdom on DL that next week is some sort of critical litmus test on our premiership bona fides surely the blues just failed their test?

The Blues have McGovern, Marchbank, Saad, Cerra, Fogarty, Docherty, Motlop & Martin out. They all played in the second half of last year and last September. Only Docherty (and Silvagni) are out for the whole season. All the others are returning over the next month. Carlton get to play Geelong again on 21 June, it is not that far away, a lot more about the prospects of all contenders will be known by then 😊

[The heart beats true 18,183]

9 minutes ago, No. 31 said:

The Blues have McGovern, Marchbank, Saad, Cerra, Fogarty, Docherty, Motlop & Martin out. They all played in the second half of last year and last September. Only Docherty (and Silvagni) are out for the whole season. All the others are returning over the next month. Carlton get to play Geelong again on 21 June, it is not that far away, a lot more about the prospects of all contenders will be known by then 😊

It does make you wonder in an 18 team competition how it’s even feasible that these 2 teams play each other again in 7 weeks.

If I was a Blues supporter I wouldn’t be that concerned. I said it yesterday half way through the game on here - but Geelong couldn’t have been more efficient. It’s interesting because that Carlton game style was very familiar to Melbourne supporters over the last 5 years - beat a team around the ball, not finish well, and watch the ball go up the other end and see a team take literally every single opportunity. We feel that pain.

[titan_uranus 25,174]

8 minutes ago, No. 31 said:

The Blues have McGovern, Marchbank, Saad, Cerra, Fogarty, Docherty, Motlop & Martin out. They all played in the second half of last year and last September. Only Docherty (and Silvagni) are out for the whole season. All the others are returning over the next month. Carlton get to play Geelong again on 21 June, it is not that far away, a lot more about the prospects of all contenders will be known by then 😊

This is so important to keep in mind. 

Carlton beat GWS with these 6-8 best 23 players out then put 100 on Geelong (admittedly plenty scored late).

I still rate Carlton as the number 1 seed.

I rate us higher than many but I don’t think we’d be as strong as they’ve been with equivalent players out. 

[titan_uranus 25,174]

1 minute ago, The heart beats true said:

It does make you wonder in an 18 team competition how it’s even feasible that these 2 teams play each other again in 7 weeks.

If I was a Blues supporter I wouldn’t be that concerned. I said it yesterday half way through the game on here - but Geelong couldn’t have been more efficient. It’s interesting because that Carlton game style was very familiar to Melbourne supporters over the last 5 years - beat a team around the ball, not finish well, and watch the ball go up the other end and see a team take literally every single opportunity. We feel that pain.

I can do one better. 

Fremantle plays the Dogs again on 15 June, in 7 weeks (Geel v Carlton is on 21 June, in 8 weeks).

[No. 31 1,382]

Yes, the AFL fixturing really is absurd.

[Diamond_Jim 12,686]

Geelong have the Suns in Darwin on Thursday 16 May. A brutal game. Knowing Scott he'll rest half his team. Very sensible

[Roost it far 9,481]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Almost nailed it.

Danger is an A grader = two b grader hammy.

And I'm suspending my assessment of the blues.

I mean they were soundly beaten by the cats, with late goals flattering them. A reality check

Real contenders don’t give up 20 goals.

If i accept the prevailing wisdom on DL that next week is some sort of critical litmus test on our premiership bona fides surely the blues just failed their test?

The reason the next 2 weeks are a minny litmus test is we need to bank some wins to guarantee top 4

[leave it to deever 17,591]

55 minutes ago, Oxdee said:

I would add hunter in for woe.. no need to change the backline which kept the tigers to 40 points. Leave petty in the forward line. He isn’t that far off from kicking a bag 

Petty was working hard to get to competitions but sadly just not impacting them. He is drastically out of form and down in confidence. He is a quality player that is in a serious lull at present. Playing down back for maybe small periods would return him to better form. Maybe Tmac who is moving better might find his old form fwd as well. Losing Petty from the fwd line isn't a worry. Jvr is struggling as well. At least we know have Turner there but maybe Fullerton would help. Something has to give.

[Roost it far 9,481]

4 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Petty was working hard to get to competitions but sadly just not impacting them. He is drastically out of form and down in confidence. He is a quality player that is in a serious lull at present. Playing down back for maybe small periods would return him to better form. Maybe Tmac who is moving better might find his old form fwd as well. Losing Petty from the fwd line isn't a worry. Jvr is struggling as well. At least we know have Turner there but maybe Fullerton would help. Something has to give.

Nothing has to give except patience, in that many here need some regarding Petty.

[binman 44,512]

25 minutes ago, No. 31 said:

The Blues have McGovern, Marchbank, Saad, Cerra, Fogarty, Docherty, Motlop & Martin out. They all played in the second half of last year and last September. Only Docherty (and Silvagni) are out for the whole season. All the others are returning over the next month. Carlton get to play Geelong again on 21 June, it is not that far away, a lot more about the prospects of all contenders will be known by then 😊

Yes, all good points.

I'm in no way writing the blues off. To do so would be ridiculous.

And if we lose to the cats I'll apply the same logic to us.

I take your point about the blues missing two of their most important defenders - Saad and McGovern (Marchbank out hurts too) - but we have repeatedly shown that even with key outs our defensive sytem holds up.

Take the lions game.

We were smashed in most key metrics, including contest and pressure.

Teams moving the ball easily from their back half and unpressured kicks into their 50 is a recipie for being opened up defensively.

Yet we were able to keep one of the best offensive teams to 82 points, despite missing Bowser, salo out of tbe game 5 mins into the game and having to run woey and clarry at hb.

To be honest, I'd be concerned if I was a cats fans too. They were also porous defensively.

No way the cats put 120 points on us this week, even with no salo and Bowser out.

[leave it to deever 17,591]

Cats currently on top of the ladder and yesterday proved why.

Beaten convincingly in inside 50 s, disposals and marks they showed how their precision and running allow for little error from top tier teams like Carlton.

Definitely a tough game on the horizon for us but a chance too to get back to our best and reassert our contention.

Our touted mids will need to be at their best and our fwd line will need to be restructured to kick a good score. 

Can't keep just relying on our backline and Max.

[titan_uranus 25,174]

4 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Cats currently on top of the ladder and yesterday proved why.

Beaten convincingly in inside 50 s, disposals and marks they showed how their precision and running allow for little error from top tier teams like Carlton.

Definitely a tough game on the horizon for us but a chance too to get back to our best and reassert our contention.

Our touted mids will need to be at their best and our fwd line will need to be restructured to kick a good score. 

Can't keep just relying on our backline and Max.

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you that Geelong are good but when we win games despite those same underlying stats how many on here say “we were lucky” or similar? (eg the Port win)

[titan_uranus 25,174]

16 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Geelong have the Suns in Darwin on Thursday 16 May. A brutal game. Knowing Scott he'll rest half his team. Very sensible

They have a tough stretch coming up. Carlton, then us, then a six day break into Port (at home), then another six day break into GC in Darwin, then GWS at home 9 days later, then a further two games, the second of which is Sydney in Sydney before their only bye in Round 14.

[leave it to deever 17,591]

1 minute ago, Roost it far said:

Nothing has to give except patience, in that many here need some regarding Petty.

I'm a Petty supporter. I'm just wondering if we have that luxury of patience with him. It's a big risk and the idea of some more time in the backline to get him some confidence isn't without merit. The problem being is the backline is doing very well without him. We can carry him for want of a better expression against teams like the tigers but the cats are a very different proposition.

 

I do hope I'm wrong and he finally starts holding marks and kicking quite a few next week. He's not going to be dropped unless Goody decides to go a completely different route and trial Fullerton. But that would probably be too risky a in such a big game. If Jvr was performing a little better marking wise, we wouldn't look so exposed. I'm guessing he plays fwd again with Turner in the mix. But with all due respect , I think you could be wrong about nothing giving. I don't believe anyone could fluke the success Petty had fwd last year but If he keeps playing like he has, Goody will have no choice but to make a change. Let's hope he doesn't. 

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,935]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

 

Well hang on, this factually incorrect.

Doesn't hurt to go back over time and see where other premiership teams and contenders have conceded huge amount of scores in games.

Collingwood and Brisbane 2023

Geelong and Sydney 2022

Richmond 2017

Happy to add more if you'd like? These just small examples.

What does this prove? Nothing.. Just because you're a contender doesn't mean you're vulnerable to conceding big scores.

Sometimes it's a good thing to have games where you do concede big score because it gives you the opportunity to reassess your team defensive structure. Not even a bad thing if Carlton failed whatever test you're thinking of. Geelong are just a bloody good side with a strong offensive and forward structure.

Simon Goodwin has been on record in stating this over the last few years.

This is Demonland @dazzledavey36. Please desist from introducing facts into the discussion.

[leave it to deever 17,591]

5 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you that Geelong are good but when we win games despite those same underlying stats how many on here say “we were lucky” or similar? (eg the Port win)

The Port win was great. It's what gives me hope after our last two. I'm holding to the fact that the Port game was the real us. The Crows game was strong too even if it was just the Crows. They were at home with a huge crowd and advantage.

I will say I was brave enough to watch the tigers game again and while there were a lot of skill errors I have to admit the tigers did apply a lot of pressure and tackled relentlessly. So it wasn't as disappointing as previously thought. The lions game hopefully was fatigue.I am worried about our fwd line. Not just the marking but the half fwd connection.

This Geelong game is a real litmus test for us. Bring it on.

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,935]

34 minutes ago, No. 31 said:

Yes, the AFL fixturing really is absurd.

It's not a fixture. It's a scheme of arrangement.

[leave it to deever 17,591]

6 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

It's not a fixture. It's a scheme of arrangement.

You would be more correct to stop at just scheme.

[Tarax Club 4,092]

Seven rounds + zero and it’s all preordained?  Premiers, Minor premiers, top four and final eight are all in, if you follow the orwellian logic of ‘the pundits.’

The fortune teller, oracle, soothsayer and gypsy woman collective on these boards needs to have a good lie down, a bex and a cup of tea. Moderators don’t leave the empty tea cup please.

Add the conspiracy theorists, AFL headquarters, the maggots, the media circus and the Flat Earth Society. It’s enough to send the self-flagellates into delirium ecstasy.

Next you have the MFCSS missionaries, juxtaposed with the messianic visionaries and then, there are the Statistics and be Damned sect. All confident in their self-persuasion and evangelically seeking further converts.

Followed by the coodabeen coaches, keyboard commentators, excommunicated physios and self-anointed sports medicine ‘professionals’, defrocked silks, ex-chalkies and other assorted hangers on. Feels like dragging fingernails down the blackboard whiteboard?

Those remaining, best go into hibernation. Set the timer post last Saturday in September. You’ll awake none the wiser apparently. 
 
 

Edited April 28, 2024 by Tarax Club

[No. 31 1,382]

6 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

It's not a fixture. It's a scheme of arrangement.

Agreed. I always thought that each team playing each other once with an additional cup comptetion to help fill out the lost rounds would be a fairer system. Could call the cup competition the Championship of Australia, reviving an old name:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Championship_of_Australia

Could even have WAFL & SANFL clubs participating in a first round giving these clubs some extra exposure and revenue.

Just an idea, not carefully thought out mind you 😁

[leave it to deever 17,591]

4 minutes ago, Tarax Club said:

The fortune teller, oracle, soothsayer and gypsy woman collective on these boards needs to have a good lie down, a bex and a cup of tea. Don’t leave the empty tea cup please.

Seven rounds + zero and it’s all preordained. Premiers, Minor premiers, top four and final eight are all in, if you follow the orwellian orthodoxy of ‘the pundits.’

Next you have the MFCSS missionaries, juxtaposed with the messianic visionaries and then, there are the Statistics and be Damned sect. All confident in their self-persuasion and evangelically seeking further converts.

Followed by the coodabeen coaches, keyboard commentators, excommunicated physios and self-anointed sports medicine ‘professionals’, defrocked silks, ex-chalkies and other assorted hangers on. Feels like dragging fingernails down the whiteboard blackboard?

Add the conspiracy theorists, AFL headquarters, the maggots, the media circus and the Flat Earth Society. It’s enough to send the self-flagellates into delirium ecstasy.

Those remaining best go into hibernation. Set the timer post last Saturday in September. You’ll awake none the wiser. 
 
 

Don't get me started .

Ps you forgot the moon landing.

[No. 31 1,382]

Taking into account Dangerfield out injured, Max will likely dominate the ruck giving the Dees mids plenty of opporrunities and the Dees organised defence, I think MFC are in with a real shot against Geelong. Kicking for goal accuracy is the uncertain variable ...

[Moonshadow 17,678]

Just now, No. 31 said:

Taking into account Dangerfield out injured, Max will likely dominate the ruck giving the Dees mids plenty of opporrunities and the Dees organised defence, I think MFC are in with a real shot against Geelong. Kicking for goal accuracy is the uncertain variable ...

Cats will pummel Max to minimize his influence. Nothing is surer, with the exception that the umps will turn a blind eye

[Tarax Club 4,092]

17 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Don't get me started .

Ps you forgot the moon landing.

Houston we have a problem...