The Run Home

[Binmans PA 26,659]

5 minutes ago, binman said:

Based on tbe bookies odds for the next two games and my estimate of the likely odds in the remaining games, the odds of us winning our remaining 6 home and away games is a tick over 9-1.

We're only 3 wins behind Port and their percentage is very ordinary for a 2nd placed team with 14 wins to this stage.

Port could very well lose their next 3 games (Pies, Crows and Cats at Geelong) and then have an improving GWS at Adelaide Oval to contend with.

I admit it's unlikely they drop that GWS game, but if they do and the rest, there's a chance we could go 5-1 from here and still take a home QF.

This weekend is huge.

[leave it to deever 16,550]

3 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Current top 8 record vs each other:

• Port - 8-1
• Collingwood - 5-2
• Geelong - 4-2
• Brisbane - 4-3
• Melbourne - 4-4
• St Kilda - 2-4
• Bulldogs - 1-6
• Essendon - 1-7

Port the clear leader here, Collingwood next, with Geelong, us and Brisbane all sort of even but Geelong having two fewer games and Brisbane one fewer game than us so far.

Interestingly though, 3 of our 4 wins have been our last 3 wins, in our last 5 games. Similarly 3 of Geelong's 4 wins have been in their last 6 games. Whereas 2 of Brisbane's 4 wins were in the first month and 4 of Collingwood's 5 wins were in the first 6 games.

Bear in mind these figures will change on the expectation that Carlton or GWS will likely replace St Kilda/Essendon/the Dogs.

Tx for posting this. Lousy stat for the dons though. Have to say they are as likely as saints and dogs to drop out.

[leave it to deever 16,550]

10 minutes ago, A F said:

We're only 3 wins behind Port and their percentage is very ordinary for a 2nd placed team with 14 wins to this stage.

Port could very well lose their next 3 games (Pies, Crows and Cats at Geelong) and then have an improving GWS at Adelaide Oval to contend with.

I admit it's unlikely they drop that GWS game, but if they do and the rest, there's a chance we could go 5-1 from here and still take a home QF.

This weekend is huge.

Plus rapping up the Ashes 

[layzie 30,232]

20 minutes ago, A F said:

We're only 3 wins behind Port and their percentage is very ordinary for a 2nd placed team with 14 wins to this stage.

Port could very well lose their next 3 games (Pies, Crows and Cats at Geelong) and then have an improving GWS at Adelaide Oval to contend with.

I admit it's unlikely they drop that GWS game, but if they do and the rest, there's a chance we could go 5-1 from here and still take a home QF.

This weekend is huge.

How good would that be if Port lost their next 3 games, or even 3 of the next 4! Another classic Port choke, that would be worth a party for sure. 

Edited July 18, 2023 by layzie

[SFebes 4,748]

Even if we go on a roll and Port capitulated we still need to overtake the Lions as well to steal 2nd spot. Let’s not forget that. 

[Binmans PA 26,659]

20 minutes ago, SFebes said:

Even if we go on a roll and Port capitulated we still need to overtake the Lions as well to steal 2nd spot. Let’s not forget that. 

Indeed, but do you think Brisbane will go 6-0 or 5-1 from here? They could well fall in a hole too after their capitulation the other night.

They've still got Collingwood, Geelong, the Q-Clash and Adelaide.

Edited July 18, 2023 by A F

[Jaded No More 59,735]

4 minutes ago, A F said:

Indeed, but do you think Brisbane will go 6-0 or 5-1 from here? They could well fall in a hole too after their capitulation the other night.

They've still got Collingwood, Geelong, the Q-Clash and Adelaide.

My biggest concern in all this is Geelong.

I don't want them coming in hot. Even if they don't over take us inside the top 4, if they go on a run like they did last year, it could end as badly as last year did.

I want the Lions to smash them this weekend and destroy their faux confidence. 

[Little Goffy 12,953]

I think Geelong are masking their true situation a bit thanks to their potent home ground advantage.

Geelong when not playing at Goomba Stadium;

4 wins, 1 Draw, 6 losses.

The wins include the early season Hawks and West Coast at, um, Adelaide Oval because [reasons].

I'm not especially afraid of them and the beat-up is, of course a beat-up.

[Jaded No More 59,735]

4 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

I think Geelong are masking their true situation a bit thanks to their potent home ground advantage.

Geelong when not playing at Goomba Stadium;

4 wins, 1 Draw, 6 losses.

The wins include the early season Hawks and West Coast at, um, Adelaide Oval because [reasons].

I'm not especially afraid of them and the beat-up is, of course a beat-up.

You are probably right. They will also need a lot to go right with their aging list.

If they can't get Guthry back to full fitness by September, they are cactus anyway. 

[SFebes 4,748]

17 minutes ago, A F said:

Indeed, but do you think Brisbane will go 6-0 or 5-1 from here? They could well fall in a hole too after their capitulation the other night.

They've still got Collingwood, Geelong, the Q-Clash and Adelaide.

Nah I don’t think they’ll win all games. I only had a quick look but think they’ll drop Collingwood and Geelong. But still means we have to win most of our games too. I was actually quite impressed with how the Lions played the other night and how they fought back. Basically a 50pt turnaround. Cats are my concern right now but I do hate them with a passion so may be unnecessarily escalated. 

[Binmans PA 26,659]

1 minute ago, SFebes said:

Nah I don’t think they’ll win all games. I only had a quick look but think they’ll drop Collingwood and Geelong. But still means we have to win most of our games too. I was actually quite impressed with how the Lions played the other night and how they fought back. Basically a 50pt turnaround. Cats are my concern right now but I do hate them with a passion so may be unnecessarily escalated. 

I hate Geelong too. Half my family is Geelong, the other half Melbourne. That would be dreadful, but I expect Geelong to drop at least 2 more, possibly 3, which they can't really afford.

[binman 39,458]

23 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

My biggest concern in all this is Geelong.

I don't want them coming in hot. Even if they don't over take us inside the top 4, if they go on a run like they did last year, it could end as badly as last year did.

I want the Lions to smash them this weekend and destroy their faux confidence. 

The cats are def the best team outside the top 4 and Scott has once again made clear they are all about peaking come finals.

I know the game is at the gabba, but ad a way of demonstrating how good the lions are and how good our win was, the lions are currently 1.48 to beat the cats this week.

By way of contrast we are 1.35 to heat the crows.

 

[SFebes 4,748]

3 minutes ago, A F said:

I hate Geelong too. Half my family is Geelong, the other half Melbourne. That would be dreadful, but I expect Geelong to drop at least 2 more, possibly 3, which they can't really afford.

I know that feeling too well. My ex wife and all her family were Cats fanatics and all my mates are Geelong too. I’m sure I have PTSD from their success/our incompetence during that time! 
 

I’ll take another look at the Cats later when I’m home and do a ladder predictor and see if I see what you do. The fact they’re thereabouts worries me. Cameron isn’t firing either yet. Guthrie and Esava and maybe one other to come back. 
 

I think we need to finish second to win the flag from here. That would be strong form heading into finals plus the home final against an interstate club. I hope we are pushing hard for second and it falls our way. 

[Demon17 4,738]

40 minutes ago, SFebes said:

 

I think we need to finish second to win the flag from here. That would be strong form heading into finals plus the home final against an interstate club. I hope we are pushing hard for second and it falls our way. 

Maybe, but my hope is we just avoid the Pies in a prelim and a GF spot will be ours at least.  Thus I'm hoping we finish 4th to get rid of the Pies one way or another in Week 1.

[Demon17 4,738]

23 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I don't understand your thinking. Yes, if we lose in 2nd vs 3rd, we then have to win a Semi which unfortunately is likely to be a Victorian team and then we would have to beat Collingwood (very probably) in a Prelim. The alternative is we finish 4th and play Collingwood in a Qualifying and if we lose, we again play against a Victorian team in a Semi, and then have to win an Away Prelim. We're going to have to get past Collingwood at some stage but it will be at the MCG. On current form of course they'd be favourites, although we did beat them pre-bye! I don't see meeting them is likely to be any easier in a Prelim than a Qualifying. What, Collingwood only decide to turn up and play when it's a knock-out match!

In a perfect world we want to finish 2nd and host a Qualifying. The next best alternative is 4th aganst Collingwood, the last 3rd against Brisbane or Port. Except for the interstate travel thing arguably it's better to be in the 2nd vs 3rd Qualifying because no side has actually won from 4th in the AFL Final 8 System Era (last 23 years)! 1st has won 8, 2nd & 3rd 7, 7th 1 (Western Bulldogs 2016).

I hear you, but my approach is we have a better chance to get to a GF and have a shot, if we meet the Pies early and can't meet them in a prleim.  Lesser of two evils I guess.

[SFebes 4,748]

6 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Maybe, but my hope is we just avoid the Pies in a prelim and a GF spot will be ours at least.  Thus I'm hoping we finish 4th to get rid of the Pies one way or another in Week 1.

If we finish 2nd, we wouldn't play Pies until the GF anyway best case scenario.

[Binmans PA 26,659]

1 hour ago, SFebes said:

I know that feeling too well. My ex wife and all her family were Cats fanatics and all my mates are Geelong too. I’m sure I have PTSD from their success/our incompetence during that time! 
 

I’ll take another look at the Cats later when I’m home and do a ladder predictor and see if I see what you do. The fact they’re thereabouts worries me. Cameron isn’t firing either yet. Guthrie and Esava and maybe one other to come back. 
 

I think we need to finish second to win the flag from here. That would be strong form heading into finals plus the home final against an interstate club. I hope we are pushing hard for second and it falls our way. 

I think we can win it from 4th. Particularly, if we play Collingwood in the QF.

[rpfc 27,672]

2 hours ago, binman said:

Based on tbe bookies odds for the next two games and my estimate of the likely odds in the remaining games, the odds of us winning our remaining 6 home and away games is a tick over 9-1.

Those are appropriate odds; all winnable but sport is spasmodic.

[rpfc 27,672]

1 minute ago, A F said:

I think we can win it from 4th. Particularly, if we play Collingwood in the QF.

Such an even season…

 

[SFebes 4,748]

12 minutes ago, A F said:

I think we can win it from 4th. Particularly, if we play Collingwood in the QF.

I just had a look, of course we can win from anywhere, but 2nd makes it easier & I don't think we'll get there. Hopefully the win fires the boys up however we still have fundamental problems as we saw last week for large periods. Its a very even season. Form and injuries will be the tale, as it always is.

[beelzebub 22,701]

1 hour ago, A F said:

I think we can win it from 4th. Particularly, if we play Collingwood in the QF.

Love to play them first up ( and beat them ).. would set the tenet for the finals.

We're probably the last team they want to meet... suits me  😉

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,190]

Have little doubt that when we run into the Filth in Sept we'll stick it right up 'em. Their game isn't built for Sept action.

[Lucifers Hero 37,505]

Scott has already started the mind games declaring:  We are the danger...!

Lets wait and see what they are made of when they play the top 3 teams in the coming weeks - the teams they need to beat in the finals.  Beat Coll (G), Port (KP) and Lions (Gabba) and it could make them GF favourites.

They will be going all out to finish 5th and get a home final.  If an an interstate team sneaks into 8th, most likely GWS the game will be at KP.  That would be a fascinating first final as GWS beat them at KP and both teams have improved since.

Hopefully the physical toll of their run home wears them down in the finals and they don't go beyond the second week.

[leave it to deever 16,550]

16 hours ago, SFebes said:

Nah I don’t think they’ll win all games. I only had a quick look but think they’ll drop Collingwood and Geelong. But still means we have to win most of our games too. I was actually quite impressed with how the Lions played the other night and how they fought back. Basically a 50pt turnaround. Cats are my concern right now but I do hate them with a passion so may be unnecessarily escalated. 

I still think the cats are carried by the wins they accumulate at Fortress Kardinia. Not saying they're not a good side but without their home advantage they would be struggling this year. They did have a bad run with injuries but I do believe Kardinia gives them probably the strongest home advantage in the comp.

[layzie 30,232]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Scott has already started the mind games declaring:  We are the danger...!

Lets wait and see what they are made of when they play the top 3 teams in the coming weeks - the teams they need to beat in the finals.  Beat Coll (G), Port (KP) and Lions (Gabba) and it could make them GF favourites.

They will be going all out to finish 5th and get a home final.  If an an interstate team sneaks into 8th, most likely GWS the game will be at KP.  That would be a fascinating first final as GWS beat them at KP and both teams have improved since.

Hopefully the physical toll of their run home wears them down in the finals and they don't go beyond the second week.

Haha righto Chris Heisenberg!

In all seriousness they could be if everything goes right for them. This Brisbane and Geelong game is a real mover and shaker.