Best 44 for Sydney

[WERRIDEE 5,576]

Sydney

B: P.McCartin, Rampe, Lloyd

HB: Blakey, T.McCartin, McInerney

C: Ch.Warner, Rowbottom, Florent

HF: Heeney, Reid, Hayward

F: Papley, Franklin, Gulden

FOLL: Hickey, Mills, Parker

IC: Stephens, Clarke, Francis, Fox

Reserves

B: Cunningham, Edwards, Gould

HB: Campbell, Melican, Vickery

C: Mitchell, Sheldrick, Co.Warner

HF: Konstanty, McDonald, Magor

F: McAndrew, McLean, Armartey

FOLL: Ladhams, Roberts, Wicks

IC: Sheather, Owen, Rankin, Hall-Kahan

[whatwhat say what 23,451]

i'd be surprised if mcdonald isn't in their best 23

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

Keep playing Franklin ahead of Amartey and McDonald. Hopefully they both walk.

[spirit of norm smith 16,617]

Strong versatile and fast team. Very good recruiting and list management.  Got excellent kids through their academy.  Blakey Mills Heeney Campbell Gulden. That’s 5 excellent young players. Even playing field? 
They will be top 4 again in my view. 

[DeeZone 10,406]

Agree Spirit ONS Swans are going to be a thorn in the side for a long time, very good side, they will have to replace Franklin and Reid in near future but seem to have them covered.

[DubDee 26,306]

Only missing a inside bull to assist Parker and one of their young fwds to break out and they are very complete

that happens when you are gifted top 3 picks when you finish top 4

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

[censored] that first final frustrated me, we were so slow to react. They are a good side but I’m confident we’ve got them covered next season.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Bombay Airconditioning

[dl4e 5,851]

5th to 8th for me. 

[adonski 12,919]

Are we sure Logan McDonald is any good?

[whatwhat say what 23,451]

2 hours ago, adonski said:

Are we sure Logan McDonald is any good?

yes

[adonski 12,919]

6 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

yes

Will revist this 6 week into next year when he's officially been labelled a bust 

[grazman 7,512]

The draw is tough for the Swans as it should be for a side that made the GF the previous year.  Of the sides they play twice; Us, Geelong, Freo and Richmond will give them a stern test and GCS look a lot stiffer opposition than in previous years which leaves just the underwhelming GWS as the likely gimme.  It’s an even split to start the year with away matches in the first half to the bye in rd 12 against GCS, Us, Richmond (at AO before playing them at the MCG in rd 17), Cats at GMHBA, and Collingwood.  

1.  Sides that lose heavily in the GF usually take some time to bounce back.  I’ve heard some in the media say that Sydney is different, they have such a great culture that they’ll recover quickly without the attendant mental scarring that other sides have had.   This to me doesn’t seem to have any real basis other than wishful thinking, nor does it address the underlying reason why they got pole-axed by 81 points in a completely lop-sided contest in the first place.  For the record here is a list of sides beaten by more than 45 points in Grand Finals since 2000 and where they finished the following year:  2021, the Dogs (74 pts) 8^th.  2019, GWS (89 pts) 10^th, 2017, Adelaide (48pts) 12^th, 2015 West Coast (46 pts) 7^th, 2014 Sydney (53 pts) 5^th, 2007, Port (119 pts) 13^th, 2003, Collingwood (56 pts) 13^th and 2000 – us (60 pts) 11^th.   So based on recent history there’s a better than even chance the Swans don’t even make the eight and very little to no chance they bounce back into the four.  I understand this tells the story of what has happened previously not what will necessarily happen this season, but I think the Swans continue the trend and here’s why:

2.  Defence.  There’s a problem with the smalls there’s too many of them: 194, 193 (McCartins) and 187 (Rampe) those are the heights of the Swans key defenders. (Correspondingly our KPD heights are 194, 193 and 197).  Yes they were the fourth best defence in 2022 with very similar numbers to Port Adelaide, but when it matters on the bigger grounds those smaller KPD had a torrid time with the taller forwards – more tellingly Rampe had probably his career worst year despite playing every game.  Career lows in disposals, marks, meters gained, rebound 50s, Intercept possessions and 0 coaches votes for the first time in his career.  I guess we shouldn’t be surprised because he’s 33 this year, but 187cm when you’re party trick is in decline is just too short to play Key Position.  The next best option they have is the Lizard who stands taller than all of them at 196, but they want to release him in a running role (providing his season isn’t derailed by glandular fever).  There’s the 192cm Aaron Francis and the Swans have a good history of turning other clubs trash into their treasure, but 54 games in 4 seasons with only 4 last year isn’t anything to be sanguine about- so it might be Melican who is 194cm but out of favour. I have a feeling they will need a replacement this year. With the exceptions of GWS (though Cadman may still grow) and West Coast every club has a KPF at least 197cm or taller and many have two.    

3. They had a great season in attack last year, but Buddy was still their leading goal scoarer, though Heeney, Heywood and Papley are great foils.  The issue as exposed in the GF is their other KPF Sam Reid is injury prone.  He averages only 15 games a year and has only played one full season since 2016 and at 32 I think its more likely than not that trend continues.  Logan McDonald looks OK, but only in combination with Buddy and Sam and really doesn’t take many contested marks.  Maybe they experiment with Ladhams/McLean as the third tall resting ruck, but I think they’re easily covered by a good defence. 

4.  The midfield is very blue collar and they did a good job last year as evidenced by Mills, Warner, Rowbottom and Parker filling out the top 4 places in their B&F.  Maybe that’s a little unfair on Mills who was AA last year – but tellingly it was on the wing and not in the guts.  He’s good, just not Clarrie, Neale or Cripps good. What they lack though is a blue chip power mid that pushes forward and kicks goals like a Dusty, Tracc or Bont.  It might be a perception thing as well, but I also think other than Parker there’s no real big bodies in there.  This isn’t helped by the likes of Gulden and Campbell who are elite kicks, but also small for mids.   Don’t get me wrong it’s a solid outfit, but it will be interesting watch to see if they can maintain their CP numbers where they were at the end of 2022(6^th) or slip back to the middle of the pack where they were mid season.

The player they can least afford to lose – I was tempted to put Buddy down – I think he’s still a vital cog of their forward structure, which sounds  either absurd or disturbing because he’s 36 year old.  In the end though I went with their captain (or one of them) in Callum Mills.  With Joey Kennedy retiring it puts a lot of pressure on their mids to keep up with the other teams in the engine room,  I think Mills is just a cut above and the others who have to assume more midfield minutes if he goes down like Florent are nice players, but they won’t have the same output.

I don’t have Sydney in my top four, many do, Sportsbet has them on the fourth line of betting to make the four at $10.00 (6^th).    I think that’s close to the money I have them slipping to 7^th. 

Edited February 19, 2023 by grazman

[WERRIDEE 5,576]

4 hours ago, grazman said:

The draw is tough for the Swans as it should be for a side that made the GF the previous year.  Of the sides they play twice; Us, Geelong, Freo and Richmond will give them a stern test and GCS look a lot stiffer opposition than in previous years which leaves just the underwhelming GWS as the likely gimme.  It’s an even split to start the year with away matches in the first half to the bye in rd 12 against GCS, Us, Richmond (at AO before playing them at the MCG in rd 17), Cats at GMHBA, and Collingwood.  

1.  Sides that lose heavily in the GF usually take some time to bounce back.  I’ve heard some in the media say that Sydney is different, they have such a great culture that they’ll recover quickly without the attendant mental scarring that other sides have had.   This to me doesn’t seem to have any real basis other than wishful thinking, nor does it address the underlying reason why they got pole-axed by 81 points in a completely lop-sided contest in the first place.  For the record here is a list of sides beaten by more than 45 points in Grand Finals since 2000 and where they finished the following year:  2021, the Dogs (74 pts) 8^th.  2019, GWS (89 pts) 10^th, 2017, Adelaide (48pts) 12^th, 2015 West Coast (46 pts) 7^th, 2014 Sydney (53 pts) 5^th, 2007, Port (119 pts) 13^th, 2003, Collingwood (56 pts) 13^th and 2000 – us (60 pts) 11^th.   So based on recent history there’s a better than even chance the Swans don’t even make the eight and very little to no chance they bounce back into the four.  I understand this tells the story of what has happened previously not what will necessarily happen this season, but I think the Swans continue the trend and here’s why:

2.  Defence.  There’s a problem with the smalls there’s too many of them: 194, 193 (McCartins) and 187 (Rampe) those are the heights of the Swans key defenders. (Correspondingly our KPD heights are 194, 193 and 197).  Yes they were the fourth best defence in 2022 with very similar numbers to Port Adelaide, but when it matters on the bigger grounds those smaller KPD had a torrid time with the taller forwards – more tellingly Rampe had probably his career worst year despite playing every game.  Career lows in disposals, marks, meters gained, rebound 50s, Intercept possessions and 0 coaches votes for the first time in his career.  I guess we shouldn’t be surprised because he’s 33 this year, but 187cm when you’re party trick is in decline is just too short to play Key Position.  The next best option they have is the Lizard who stands taller than all of them at 196, but they want to release him in a running role (providing his season isn’t derailed by glandular fever).  There’s the 192cm Aaron Francis and the Swans have a good history of turning other clubs trash into their treasure, but 54 games in 4 seasons with only 4 last year isn’t anything to be sanguine about- so it might be Melican who is 194cm but out of favour. I have a feeling they will need a replacement this year. With the exceptions of GWS (though Cadman may still grow) and West Coast every club has a KPF at least 197cm or taller and many have two.    

3. They had a great season in attack last year, but Buddy was still their leading goal scoarer, though Heeney, Heywood and Papley are great foils.  The issue as exposed in the GF is their other KPF Sam Reid is injury prone.  He averages only 15 games a year and has only played one full season since 2016 and at 32 I think its more likely than not that trend continues.  Logan McDonald looks OK, but only in combination with Buddy and Sam and really doesn’t take many contested marks.  Maybe they experiment with Ladhams/McLean as the third tall resting ruck, but I think they’re easily covered by a good defence. 

4.  The midfield is very blue collar and they did a good job last year as evidenced by Mills, Warner, Rowbottom and Parker filling out the top 4 places in their B&F.  Maybe that’s a little unfair on Mills who was AA last year – but tellingly it was on the wing and not in the guts.  He’s good, just not Clarrie, Neale or Cripps good. What they lack though is a blue chip power mid that pushes forward and kicks goals like a Dusty, Tracc or Bont.  It might be a perception thing as well, but I also think other than Parker there’s no real big bodies in there.  This isn’t helped by the likes of Gulden and Campbell who are elite kicks, but also small for mids.   Don’t get me wrong it’s a solid outfit, but it will be interesting watch to see if they can maintain their CP numbers where they were at the end of 2022(6^th) or slip back to the middle of the pack where they were mid season.

The player they can least afford to lose – I was tempted to put Buddy down – I think he’s still a vital cog of their forward structure, which sounds  either absurd or disturbing because he’s 36 year old.  In the end though I went with their captain (or one of them) in Callum Mills.  With Joey Kennedy retiring it puts a lot of pressure on their mids to keep up with the other teams in the engine room,  I think Mills is just a cut above and the others who have to assume more midfield minutes if he goes down like Florent are nice players, but they won’t have the same output.

I don’t have Sydney in my top four, many do, Sportsbet has them on the fourth line of betting to make the four at $10.00 (6^th).    I think that’s close to the money I have them slipping to 7^th. 

I think your underestimating Warner he's their best midfielder.

[grazman 7,512]

Possibly, though I don't think I am.   Callum does a lot of unobtrusive things that often go unnoticed and Chad does a lot of exciting things in terms of speed and evasiveness.  Warner made 97 tackles last year which shows he does have a defensive side, but Mills laid 156 which probably explains why he won their B&F and Chad came second.  Mills was also AA so there's that as well - so I think he's their best mid.  Neither can be replaced really, but I think they rely more on Mills than Warner - certainly Mills has him covered in terms of kicking efficiency.  

[grazman 7,512]

On 2/19/2023 at 7:14 PM, grazman said:

I think that’s close to the money I have them slipping to 7^th. 

I've reassessed the above view based on a conversation I had recently and I think the Swans will slip out of the eight altogether.

It was put to me that every year a top four side from the previous season slides out of the eight... That's not quite correct, but it's close - since 1996  of the teams that finished in the top 4 at the end of the H&A, 19 times (twice in 2000) they have failed to play finals the following year.  Not quite a given, but still statistically significant.  There's obviously a bunch of factors why that happens to sides, but coinciding with the point I made above about sides getting belted in GFs - I think it's more likely than unlikely the Swans slide signficantly this year.   Here's three factors why that could happen.

1.  I mentioned Rampe above and his significant downturn in output compared to previous seasons.  He could bounce back particularly if it was based around an injury that meant he could play, but not at his best, but if it's age based then...

2.  Paddy McCartin.  The elephant in the room is his concussion history.  We all hope that it doesn't happen, but it is a contact sport and any type of concussion means he misses significant weeks - if Rampe  can't  get back to his previous form then it makes for a worst case scenario for Horse in how to shore up his key defensive options.

3.  I probably glossed over this in the analysis above - but the pragmatic side of me says even though Buddy was the leading goal scorer for the Swans last season he's just about cooked.   He's still a capable goal scorer  52 goals in 23 games from your key forward most sides would take in a heartbeat.  He kicked 15 goals in 6 games against defensive sides ranked 6-9 and he's enormous in terms of the structural make up of their forward half.  The real worry for the Swans and no prizes here for putting two and two together - is his output against the best defensive sides.   Against the four best defences in the competition he kicked 6 goals in 6 games (that includes 4 he kicked against the Cats in Rd 2).  Against the best defensive team last year (us) he kicked none in both matches.  It's a rod the Swans have made for their own back, they can try to manage him given the fatigue his 36 y.o. frame would be suffering, but it really isn't a fitness issue it's an age issue. He just can't do what he used to.  

Edited February 22, 2023 by grazman

[WERRIDEE 5,576]

On 12/16/2022 at 11:53 PM, WERRIDEE said:

Sydney

B: P.McCartin, Rampe, Lloyd

HB: Blakey, T.McCartin, McInerney

C: Ch.Warner, Rowbottom, Florent

HF: Heeney, McDonald, Hayward

F: Papley, Franklin, Gulden

FOLL: Hickey, Mills, Parker

IC: Stephens, Clarke, Campbell, Fox

Reserves

B: Cunningham, Edwards, Gould

HB: Francis, Melican, Vickery

C: Mitchell, Sheldrick, Co.Warner

HF: Konstanty, Reid, Magor

F: McAndrew, McLean, Armartey

FOLL: Ladhams, Roberts, Wicks

IC: Sheather, Owen, Rankin, Hall-Kahan

Revised best 44 for Sydney