PODCAST: Rd 21 vs Collingwood

[Deeoldfart 7,830]

Another great poddy guys.  Currently spending a few days at a remote cabin in the Snowy Mountains (with very dodgy Internet coverage) so couldn’t tune in on Monday.  Went for a drive yesterday until I found the Net, and the poddy kept me company on an enjoyable bush walk through the high country. It restored my soul, and faith in the Dees for at least another week. Thanks!

[binman 39,221]

1 hour ago, DemonWA said:

The suggestion that we're a month or two from being at our absolute peak sits OK with me, but I think they'd be negligible gains from hear on in. Potentially the prefinals bye helps. 

We should have beaten the Pies, but I don't accept they won because of the differences in our loading/tapering. 2 weeks ago even the most ardent pro loaders were saying the freo game was the point in which the discussion would be put to bed. Revising the theory to match the results was my initial source of scepticism, and I feel like that's what these discussions have reverted to. 

Please. That's enough. It is getting ridiculously tiresome.

I could not have been clearer- I'm not blaming the loss on the loading program.

In case you missed it, i'll say it again - to be crystal clear loading is not an excuse for the loss.

Please stop misrepresenting my comments. It is so very frustrating.

I never said the loading program guaranteed we would win the flag (for clarity, and to avoid the need for a rebuttal, not saying you said i did).

I did say i thought we would go unbeaten after the dogs game and win the flag. I was obviously wrong about that, but that doesn't mean i was wrong about the loading program.

Was the loading a factor in the pies loss? What do you think? Who ran out the game better?

Was running out games an issue for us in the finals last year?

It was for the dogs in the gf - which is completely unsurprising because their no doubt carefully calibrated physical preparation program (because you know, they a professional sporting organisation playing in the highest level of a fully professional sport) was thrown into chaos when they fell out of the top 4. As it will for us if we don't finish top 4.

I actually think the crowd was a bigger factor in the loss than our physical readiness or any loading program.

No one is revising any theory to match the results. It is equally frustrating to be accused of doing so. To be frank, suggesting this is the case indicates you don't actually get it.

In fact, there is no need to 'revise' the theory.

Quite the contrary. The pies game is evidence the 'theory' is CORRECT.

You are confusing performance with winning. The fact we lost doesn't disprove anything.

Our performance indicated we are on a clear upward trajectory. Our performance was better than that in the freo game. The fact we lost doesn't change that. We just happened to play a team who was better than us on the day.

Our performance against the pies was way, way, way more impressive than our corresponding game last year against a much weaker Eagles team.

We were level pegging for much of that match, had 10 mins of dominant football in the third and then slowed to a walk (for whatever reason) and nearly got run down in the last.

So you could argue we are tracking better from a physical readiness perspective than last year.

Anyway, that is it for me on this topic. I've had enough. Believe what you want to believe. 

Edited August 10, 2022 by binman

[binman 39,221]

1 hour ago, layzie said:

The point is also that we hope the Pies are at full peak physical condition. Possibly as a result of not expecting to get this far, but there's no promises there. 

Absolutely.

If the pies have another gear they are going to be tough to beat.

[DemonWA 3,579]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Please. That's enough. It is getting ridiculouslt tiresome.

 

No need for the essay, there's nothing wrong with disagreement 

[binman 39,221]

9 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

No need for the essay, there's nothing wrong with disagreement 

No there is not.

There is however something wrong with willfully misrepresenting people's comments and opinions.

For example suggesting i, or anyone else for that matter, has suggested we lost against the pies because of the differences in our loading/tapering 

Let's leave it there shall we.   

[Lord Nev 13,511]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Our performance against the pies was way, way, way more impressive than our corresponding game last year against a much weaker Eagles team.

Might not be the best example of a corresponding game given it was in Perth and stopped for 30 minutes due to lightning.

On either side of that game we smashed the Suns by 98 points (after flying to QLD and back), and wacked Adelaide at the G by 41 points.

There's nuance to the opposition, the traveling, form, current injuries/soreness etc, but that just makes it even MORE irrelevant to directly compare to a game in the same round last year.

[Watson11 1,963]

5 hours ago, binman said:

So, as i said on the show, if you think the pies are legitimate flag contenders, then by extension logic says so are we.

I’ll reserve my judgement on the Pies as I think they are just making up numbers. An 11 game winning streak is impressive, but it started with a super impressive win over Freo, but since has included us twice, blues, and 7 of the bottom 8 (by an average margin of 6 points). Considering we and the Blues are 4w-6l in that period, I would argue they have scraped over 9 of the bottom 10 teams based on current form.

I think the Swans will thump them this week but if that doesn’t happen, they are a very remote chance to beat 3 top sides in a row considering they concede so much field position.

 

[binman 39,221]

42 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

I’ll reserve my judgement on the Pies as I think they are just making up numbers. An 11 game winning streak is impressive, but it started with a super impressive win over Freo, but since has included us twice, blues, and 7 of the bottom 8 (by an average margin of 6 points). Considering we and the Blues are 4w-6l in that period, I would argue they have scraped over 9 of the bottom 10 teams based on current form.

Really good points.

For me it comes down to whether they do in fact have another gear they can go to, as they were by far the most impressive opponent we have played this year, the cats included. That said everything that could go right, did go right for them. And we still nearly won.  

But if they are anywhere near their physical peak atm in terms of preparation sustaining that ballistic style of football will be extraordinarily difficult.

In that sense they really remind me of us in 2018.

The super high tempo, players rushing off the half bank flank, high press model we employed in the back half of that season was always gong to be hard to sustain - and we hit a massive wall on prelim day (and were outclassed by the eventual premier). 

The other similarity was that like the pies this year, we rode a wave of momentum and fan support into the finals. That first final against the cast was insane.

The closest thing to that experience for me was last Friday's game.

Unfortunately this time the wave was black and white.

Edited August 10, 2022 by binman

[Wodjathefirst 2,442]

3 hours ago, binman said:

I actually think the crowd was a bigger factor in the loss than our physical readiness or any loading program.

I 100% agree with this comment.  Last year, the Covid situation l believe actually helped us.

Would we have beaten Geelong at Geelong if there was a crowd there? I honestly don’t think so. I’m sure there were other games but I’m too lazy to do the research.

Did the incredibly biased crowds in the West assist us in the finals? Bloody oath. People talk about the noise the Filth fans made last week. Yep it was incredible and it most certainly helped the Pies (and didn’t help us one bit).  Just as a side note, may  be hard to believe, the support we received in the west was even more incredible. Both finals were the noisiest games I’ve ever attended (no doubt helped by the acoustics of the ground)

No wonder our boys were so excited to try and do it all again in front of their real fans this year.

Sadly, we have had the home grown advantage but not the home crowd advantage in some of our key home games this year. In my opinion this was telling when we played Fremantle and Sydney at home.

Just guessing here. It seems the boys set themselves to do well when they play interstate games and have done well. Less so for home games.

I just hope fans turn up in their droves this Saturday. No doubt this has been a tougher year for us than last year.  I still have faith in our lads.  We are still contenders- our team  could also do with a little (a lot) more support on game day from their fans.

[WalkingCivilWar 34,075]

4 hours ago, binman said:

I actually think the crowd was a bigger factor in the loss than our physical readiness or any loading program.

 

35 minutes ago, Wodjathefirst said:

People talk about the noise the Filth fans made last week. Yep it was incredible and it most certainly helped the Pies (and didn’t help us one bit).  

This is undeniable. As I mentioned in another thread, I was on banner crew on Friday night. When their banner was raised and their players ran out the noise was like nothing I’ve ever heard. Comparable to when a jet puts on the afterburners, only way more overwhelming. It’s different when you hear it from the middle of the ground, as opposed to from the stands. It’s absolutely insane.

And unless the players as well as the umpires are robots, there’s simply no way that sound is not gonna affect them. 

Sadly though, when we raised our banner and our players ran out the noise was just as mind blowing, only it was booing. 🙁

[Watson11 1,963]

2 hours ago, binman said:

Really good points.

For me it comes down to whether they do in fact have another gear they can go to, as they were by far the most impressive opponent we have played this year, the cats included. That said everything that could go right, did go right for them. And we still nearly won.  

But if they are anywhere near their physical peak atm in terms of preparation sustaining that ballistic style of football will be extraordinarily difficult.

In that sense they really remind me of us in 2018.

The super high tempo, players rushing off the half bank flank, high press model we employed in the back half of that season was always gong to be hard to sustain - and we hit a massive wall on prelim day (and were outclassed by the eventual premier). 

The other similarity was that like the pies this year, we rode a wave of momentum and fan support into the finals. That first final against the cast was insane.

The closest thing to that experience for me was last Friday's game.

Unfortunately this time the wave was black and white.

Wave or not I don’t think they are that good. Macrae spent a long time at Richmond and has implemented their gameplan at Collingwood but they have half the talent Richmond had (or we have). They have a pretty good defence and bring forward 50 pressure, but their midfield is pedestrian and if they don’t get quick movement into their f50 (or f50 free kicks) they find it hard to score. They are bottom 4 in contested possessions, bottom 2 in clearance differential, and bottom 8 in inside 50 differential, so they rely on intercepting (ranked #1) and counterattacking. But their kicking efficiency is ranked #18 so they don’t even have the skills to implement their game plan well. 

I rate Longmire as one of the more astute coaches and so expect Sydney to be the team that brings forward 50 pressure against them this week. I’m not sure how they cope when that happens. If they deal with Sydney I’ll pay them some respect.

 

[640MD 3,045]

On the analogy of the Olympic swimmer

you need to make the final 

no point in peaking for the gold medal if your fourth in the heat and only 3go through 

we need that top 4 spot, then we should be playing at the MCG   Same as top 2. 
might we are 5th or 6th. It becomes ….difficult 

and like the dogs last year run out of poop half way through the third. They were finished then and they knew it. Watch the replay and look at their faces or attitude after each goal in the last 90 seconds

get the job done this week.  Go Dees

[Dr. Gonzo 22,696]

12 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

Might not be the best example of a corresponding game given it was in Perth and stopped for 30 minutes due to lightning.

On either side of that game we smashed the Suns by 98 points (after flying to QLD and back), and wacked Adelaide at the G by 41 points.

There's nuance to the opposition, the traveling, form, current injuries/soreness etc, but that just makes it even MORE irrelevant to directly compare to a game in the same round last year.

I wouldn't say we whacked Adelaide at the G. We got out to a 25 point lead before half time, they reeled it back in then we held them at arm's length before Fritsch kicked 3 goals in the last few minutes to blow the margin out to 41 pts.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,696]

8 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Wave or not I don’t think they are that good. Macrae spent a long time at Richmond and has implemented their gameplan at Collingwood but they have half the talent Richmond had (or we have). They have a pretty good defence and bring forward 50 pressure, but their midfield is pedestrian and if they don’t get quick movement into their f50 (or f50 free kicks) they find it hard to score. They are bottom 4 in contested possessions, bottom 2 in clearance differential, and bottom 8 in inside 50 differential, so they rely on intercepting (ranked #1) and counterattacking. But their kicking efficiency is ranked #18 so they don’t even have the skills to implement their game plan well. 

I rate Longmire as one of the more astute coaches and so expect Sydney to be the team that brings forward 50 pressure against them this week. I’m not sure how they cope when that happens. If they deal with Sydney I’ll pay them some respect.

 

I agree about Longmire although Collingwood have a good record against the Swans and also travel well historically. I think it will be a(nother) close game.

Edited August 10, 2022 by Dr. Gonzo

[binman 39,221]

5 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I wouldn't say we whacked Adelaide at the G. We got out to a 25 point lead before half time, they reeled it back in then we held them at arm's length before Fritsch kicked 3 goals in the last few minutes to blow the margin out to 41 pts.

Indeed.

We weren't particularly impressive in that game at all.

As you say Fritters 3 late goals were in tbe last 3 mins, the last two in the last 90 seconds of the game.

I watched the suns game ahead of the freo game, and they were witches hats for almost all the game. Their season had already finished.

The two corresponding games this season have been far more impressive performances.

 

[Webber 10,181]

18 hours ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

only it was booing

For this reason alone, I’d be genuinely embarrassed to be a Collingwood supporter. Happy also to relay this to my Pies supporter friends, who agree but just shrug. 

 

23 hours ago, binman said:

If the pies have another gear

Inconceivable, based on their manic attack, particularly in the last 10 minutes on Friday night. Was like they were drug-fuelled (cue rumour mill!). Added to this, EVERYTHING went their way. Horrible horrible free kicks in front of goal (definitely brought by crowd affirmational bias), once in a blue moon accuracy. It was almost comical how the stars aligned for them. Not to discredit the performance, they deserved the win and will have enormous trust in their ability to get it done, which up to a point they will. Just not sure where or when that ‘point’ will be. Sooner the better though. 

[Lord Nev 13,511]

12 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I wouldn't say we whacked Adelaide at the G. We got out to a 25 point lead before half time, they reeled it back in then we held them at arm's length before Fritsch kicked 3 goals in the last few minutes to blow the margin out to 41 pts.

Splitting hairs a bit there mate.

Ok we 'soundly defeated' Adelaide comfortably.

Better?

[Lord Nev 13,511]

12 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Fritsch kicked 3 goals in the last few minutes to blow the margin out to 41 pts.

 

7 hours ago, binman said:

As you say Fritters 3 late goals were in tbe last 3 mins, the last two in the last 90 seconds of the game.

I watched the suns game ahead of the freo game, and they were witches hats for almost all the game. Their season had already finished.

The two corresponding games this season have been far more impressive performances.

 

So, one team we ran over at the end of the game and one team we made look like witches hats, but falling over against Collingwood in the second half is more impressive?

Sure the opponent is different, but not sure I agree there, and pretty clearly from a purely fitness point of view they are VERY different performances in terms of how we ran out the games.

[Binmans PA 26,592]

21 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Wave or not I don’t think they are that good. Macrae spent a long time at Richmond and has implemented their gameplan at Collingwood but they have half the talent Richmond had (or we have). They have a pretty good defence and bring forward 50 pressure, but their midfield is pedestrian and if they don’t get quick movement into their f50 (or f50 free kicks) they find it hard to score. They are bottom 4 in contested possessions, bottom 2 in clearance differential, and bottom 8 in inside 50 differential, so they rely on intercepting (ranked #1) and counterattacking. But their kicking efficiency is ranked #18 so they don’t even have the skills to implement their game plan well. 

I rate Longmire as one of the more astute coaches and so expect Sydney to be the team that brings forward 50 pressure against them this week. I’m not sure how they cope when that happens. If they deal with Sydney I’ll pay them some respect.

 

I'm sure some will laugh, I actually think we left a few tricks off the table the other night in preparation for the finals and should have won either way.

Playing the zone deeper from kick outs is one and allowing them to chip the ball around in D50. We wouldn't allow that in a final.

[Lord Nev 13,511]

1 hour ago, A F said:

I'm sure some will laugh, I actually think we left a few tricks off the table the other night in preparation for the finals and should have won either way.

Playing the zone deeper from kick outs is one and allowing them to chip the ball around in D50. We wouldn't allow that in a final.

I laughed, but only because I had a similar 'what if' thought this morning about our forward delivery.

What if, we keep hammering away at the forward pocket with entries not just because of the defensive advantages to it but because when the need arises in finals we know there will often be space/leads/players available straight in front? We've all seen the open players in those spots ignored, it's even been raised by the media types in the last week or two, so it's not something the coaches wouldn't be aware of.

Tacking that onto your thoughts and onto loading as well, it does paint a picture of a team maybe looking to slingshot into finals.

Just a 'what if' though.

[kongwacker 65]

11 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

What if, we keep hammering away at the forward pocket with entries not just because of the defensive advantages to it but because when the need arises in finals we know there will often be space/leads/players available straight in front? We've all seen the open players in those spots ignored, it's even been raised by the media types in the last week or two, so it's not something the coaches wouldn't be aware of.

Tacking that onto your thoughts and onto loading as well, it does paint a picture of a team maybe looking to slingshot into finals.

I get what you are saying LN and the concept is in the Goody playbook but given our ladder position before and after Friday night it is a high risk strategy, higher than loading and getting that wrong.

To give ourselves the best shot in finals we need to finish H&A season on 16 wins, it is then in our own hands to keep winning and play all finals at home, however many that ends up being.

I fear Sydney in the finals and would not like to travel to play them, even though we have a good “away” record. If we win an away final what is the impact on the following game of say a Perth trip.

[Lord Nev 13,511]

2 minutes ago, kongwacker said:

I get what you are saying LN and the concept is in the Goody playbook but given our ladder position before and after Friday night it is a high risk strategy, higher than loading and getting that wrong.

To give ourselves the best shot in finals we need to finish H&A season on 16 wins, it is then in our own hands to keep winning and play all finals at home, however many that ends up being.

I fear Sydney in the finals and would not like to travel to play them, even though we have a good “away” record. If we win an away final what is the impact on the following game of say a Perth trip.

Yeah absolutely, and if (and it's a big if) they were doing something like that it wouldn't be a surprise to see a change up before finals given top 4 is on the line. Who knows if that's something that can even be switched on and off like that anyway hey?

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,158]

On 8/8/2022 at 10:11 AM, Clintosaurus said:

Not sure how many we laid, but at least 4 should have been rewarded. But you know, umpires.

Let's say 50% of the guys got lucky, that's 12 very happy supporters. (Assuming one each of course.)