The warped draft

[Little Goffy 14,530]

There's been a lot of talk about how much the Academy and Father-Son selections are going to mess with this draft, so I took a moment assemble a quick list just so the information is handy. (Will add in another post)

But what has really struck me about this is how in particular the 5 NGA picks expected to go in the first round, and also the five more expected to go in the second round, will have  a very strange warping effect on the draft, disadvantaging at some points but actually offering advantage at others.

Example one - You have pick 20.  By the time your selection comes around, five separate academy picks have been taken.  the clubs with those academy options have burned through all their second round, third round and later picks to get the draft points and effectively jammed that value into the first round.  Five additional selections have been made before the draft reaches your pick 20.  You are, in effect, taking the 25th selected player in the draft.

Example two - You have pick 55.  For each one of those first round NGA selections, you get pushed back one because of the insertion, BUT for every pick ahead of 50 which  a club 'burns' to get the draft points, you move one ahead in the order.  If  first-round NGA selections use an average of three other picks (above 55) to 'purchase', then that's fifteen selections gone.  As the dust settles after +5 and -15 movement, your pick 55 is now going to be the 45th actual selection in the draft.

The effect is of course much less for the NGA/FS players expected to go in the second round as they are more easily 'paid for' by the next available selection with maybe a top-up, but it will still see more picks consumed than selections actually taken.

Put another way -

A 2020 fourth round draft pick (55-72) is worth almost the same as a 'normal year' third round draft pick (37-54) in terms of how high up the pecking order you actually get to choose a player. 

A 2020 second round draft pick will be at least 5 draft selections lower in real value than a 'normal year' second round pick.

So to get value this year, either get into the top half-dozen selections, ahead of the NGA picks, or bail out and try your hand in the fourth round which is actually the third round!

Edited October 12, 2020 by Little Goffy

[Return to Glory 8,436]

On 10/12/2020 at 7:06 PM, Little Goffy said:

There's been a lot of talk about how much the Academy and Father-Son selections are going to mess with this draft, so I took a moment assemble a quick list just so the information is handy. (Will add in another post)

But what has really struck me about this is how in particular the 5 NGA picks expected to go in the first round, and also the five more expected to go in the second round, will have  a very strange warping effect on the draft, disadvantaging at some points but actually offering advantage at others.

Example one - You have pick 20.  By the time your selection comes around, five separate academy picks have been taken.  the clubs with those academy options have burned through all their second round, third round and later picks to get the draft points and effectively jammed that value into the first round.  Five additional selections have been made before the draft reaches your pick 20.  You are, in effect, taking the 25th selected player in the draft.

Example two - You have pick 55.  For each one of those first round NGA selections, you get pushed back one because of the insertion, BUT for every pick ahead of 50 which  a club 'burns' to get the draft points, you move one ahead in the order.  If  first-round NGA selections use an average of three other picks (above 55) to 'purchase', then that's fifteen selections gone.  As the dust settles after +5 and -15 movement, your pick 55 is now going to be the 45th actual selection in the draft.

The effect is of course much less for the NGA/FS players expected to go in the second round as they are more easily 'paid for' by the next available selection with maybe a top-up, but it will still see more picks consumed than selections actually taken.

Put another way -

A 2020 fourth round draft pick (55-72) is worth almost the same as a 'normal year' third round draft pick (37-54) in terms of how high up the pecking order you actually get to choose a player. 

A 2020 second round draft pick will be at least 5 draft selections lower in real value than a 'normal year' second round pick.

So to get value this year, either get into the top half-dozen selections, ahead of the NGA picks, or bail out and try your hand in the fourth round which is actually the third round!

Little Goffy, you really have articulated what I had been wondering about with your 'example two'....unfortunately, when it gets to draft calculations/permutations, it's like a mist descends upon me. 

What I take from this is that we can grab another Trent Rivers if our recruiters are on song.

Edited October 17, 2020 by Return to Glory

[whatwhat say what 22,747]

great post @Little Goffy

in the modelling work that you've looked at, where do you have our subsequent picks coming in to as a result of bids etc.?

[george_on_the_outer 7,590]

Great

On 10/12/2020 at 7:06 PM, Little Goffy said:

There's been a lot of talk about how much the Academy and Father-Son selections are going to mess with this draft, so I took a moment assemble a quick list just so the information is handy.

 

Great summary LG.  Shows why early round draft picks this year are severely compromised. 

Also don't forget Free agent compensation which can further devalue a clubs position.  Essendon lose Daniher, GWS Cameron etc. and your first or second round pick drops again. 

Then Gold Coast still have a compensation pick mid first round, another place drop for teams after that.  

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,175]

Add to this the lack of exposed form this year of players and you are better to load up and have 4-6 picks in the 30-60 range than have 2 picks 10-29 range. 

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

Does anyone have a list of expected compromised picks in the first 30?  U-H at #1 for example.  Anyone know the obvious candidates?

[old55 23,561]

1 hour ago, buck_nekkid said:

Does anyone have a list of expected compromised picks in the first 30?  U-H at #1 for example.  Anyone know the obvious candidates?

https://www.afl.com.au/news/514307/cal-twomey-s-2020-phantom-form-guide-october-update

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

4 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

https://www.afl.com.au/news/514307/cal-twomey-s-2020-phantom-form-guide-october-update

Looks like 4 in the top 25, and a GC direct draftee.  So our pick 23 pushed back 4 places by NGA’s, and probably several compo picks.  So pick 23 more like 30.

[Males 578]

There’s actually 8 there if my counting was correct, 2 of those are GC pre draft selections.

Edit: If I recall, 17 out of the 42 players picked for the all Australian U17’s team before last years GF were tied to AFL teams.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Males

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

10 hours ago, Males said:

There’s actually 8 there if my counting was correct, 2 of those are GC pre draft selections.

Edit: If I recall, 17 out of the 42 players picked for the all Australian U17’s team before last years GF were tied to AFL teams.

So if all are taken up to say pick 23, that is pick 30 at best (maybe 33 or so).  As the OP suggests, it then winds the other way as all of the points used soak up picks. Anything outside the top round in most drafts is a lottery, anyway.

Would suspect this means teams will take their priority option, give up the points, then use later selections to upgrade rookies to get their 3. GC are set for a feast.  Can see a lot of first round picks being traded out for later points or future picks as well.

Not sure this was the intention when all of this began - but that is what you get from the AFL.

Edited October 18, 2020 by buck_nekkid

[old55 23,561]

14 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

So if all are taken up to say pick 23, that is pick 30 at best (maybe 33 or so).  As the OP suggests, it then winds the other way as all of the points used soak up picks. Anything outside the top round in most drafts is a lottery, anyway.

Would suspect this means teams will take their priority option, give up the points, then use later selections to upgrade rookies to get their 3. GC are set for a feast.  Can see a lot of first round picks being traded out for later points or future picks as well.

Not sure this was the intention when all of this began - but that is what you get from the AFL.

I don't think it's all pushing out up to pick 23, as @Little Goffy in his excellent OP points out and you acknowledge, there will be some coming in from picks being consumed to make up points.

The AFL brought in the rule that says teams can only bunch picks for points equal to the number of list vacancies they have.  The Dogs for example aren't going to be able pay for pick 1 entirely with picks beyond 23.

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

4 hours ago, Pollyanna said:

I don't think it's all pushing out up to pick 23, as @Little Goffy in his excellent OP points out and you acknowledge, there will be some coming in from picks being consumed to make up points.

The AFL brought in the rule that says teams can only bunch picks for points equal to the number of list vacancies they have.  The Dogs for example aren't going to be able pay for pick 1 entirely with picks beyond 23.

I forgot about that rule change.  The deeper picks (after about 40) almost have no consequential value.  For the Dogs, getting 3000 points is going to be a challenge and will take their mid first round and second round, and maybe change. With that rule change, i guess they will have maybe one opportunity to pick split.

[TRIGON 4,783]

Combining FA/NGA with where the picks stood as at the end of trade period and Cal Twomey's Phantom Draft (if top 25) or Google Search for those outside his Top 25. I think it looks like this...

Adelaide: 1, 9, 22, 23, 40, 56, 66, 80 

• Luke Edwards – Father/Son, Draft Projection Pick 30-60
• James Borlase  – Next-Generation Academy, Draft Projection Pick 40+
• Tariek Newchurch — Next-Generation Academy,  Draft Projection Pick 30-45

Brisbane: 25, 53, 58, 63, 68, 69, 94

• Blake Coleman – Northern Academy, Draft Projection Pick ? 35-50
• Saxon Crozier – Northern Academy, Draft Projection Pick Late-Rookie
• Carter Michael – Northern Academy, Draft Projection Pick 35-55

Collingwood: 14, 16, 65, 70, 75, 92 

• Reef McInnes  – Next-Generation Academy, Draft Projection Pick 19

Essendon: 6, 7, 8, 44, 77, 85, 87 

• Cody Brand – Next-Generation Academy, Draft Projection Pick 35+
• Josh Eyee — Next-Generation Academy, Draft Projection Pick ?

Fremantle: 12, 32, 55 

• Joel Western – Next-Generation Academy, Draft Projection Pick ?
• Brandon Walker – Next-Generation Academy ?

Gold Coast: 5, 27, 37, 76, 84 

• Alex Davies – Northern Academy, Draft Projection Pick 14
• Joel Jeffrey  – Linked to the club via NT, Draft Projection Pick 17
• Brodie Lake – Linked to the club via NT, Draft Projection ?

GWS: 10, 13, 15, 20, 29, 52, 74, 88 

• Joshua Green – Next-Generation Academy ?

Hawthorn: 4, 24, 45, 46, 49, 72  

• Connor Downie  – Next-Generation Academy,  Draft Projection Pick 22

Melbourne: 18, 19, 28, 50, 89 

• Kobi George – Next-Generation Academy ?
• Deakyn Smith – Next-Generation Academy ?

Port: 35, 47, 57, 59, 73, 95  

• Taj Schofield – Father/Son, Draft Projection?  
• Lachlan Jones – Next-Generation Academy, Draft Projection Pick 10

Richmond: 17, 36, 61, 79, 97

• Ethan Baxter – Next-Generation Academy, Draft Projection ?

Sydney: 21, 64, 67, 74, 93 

• Braeden Campbell – Northern Academy, Draft Projection Pick 6
• Errol Gulden – Northern Academy, Draft Projection Pick 22

Bulldogs: 26, 33, 41, 42, 54, 90 

• Jamarra Ugle-Hagan – Next-Generation Academy, Draft Projection Pick 1
• Cody Raak – Next-Generation Academy ?

Please feel welcome to update the Draft Projections if you can find any up to date information.

[spirit of norm smith 16,450]

Yes I went through the 1st round and there is at least 5 or maybe 6 players who should have a bid on them by the time it gets to picks 18,19.  That means we are effectively picks 24,25.  I would definitely look to bid on Brandon Walker with our first pick. We’d force Freo to match it.  They will most likely but if they didn’t, he’d be a great get.  

[Forest Demon 4,681]

This is why I’m confused by our strategy, as it stands, of trading heavily into this draft at the expense of next year’s supposed super draft.

We have picks that will be pushed back, and there is little exposed form, in this draft.

Next year is supposed to be a bumper crop, and add to that there is every chance of players who didn’t get a chance to showcase talent, or develop, this year slipping into calculations next year once they can play again.

Edited November 13, 2020 by Forest Demon

[Dee-licious 1,949]

I think it was Mahoney which said that due to the lack of exposure of players this year, players that we rate at 7 might still be there at 18, 19 because what we saw at age 16 can be very different than others. Cal Twoomey joked he isn’t going to do a phantom because he has no idea who will pick who and who are the top performers. 
 

great point about Oliver and Bont on trade radio. If they were in this year, they wouldn’t have been first rounders because they used their final year to press their claims as top picks. 
 

my guess is that Taylor believes that he has a couple of guys that he thinks will be there around 20 and two top 20 picks is nothing to scoff at. 
 

2021 draft is being talked up as deep because they are expecting a heap of players not to be picked up, come back as 19 year olds and show they are Afl standard. I’d be keeping that mid season draft pick ready to go as that will be ‘good’ next year. 
 

at the end of the day, who knows. There are going to be players that no one thought of in the top 20 this year and those who we though would be drafted won’t be. I’d be waiting till round 1 to see how it all shakes out. It’s not going to be an easy year to draft.