25 minutes ago, A F said:

We got it deep plenty of times last night. The majority of entries were deep. But yes, we couldn't get it to 1v1s often enough.

Geelong played a very high line with no goalkeeper from defensive stoppages, but had extra numbers at the contest to chain out or clear the area.

Spot on and you would have had the best view of this at the ground. In tight they were able to get a quick 1 or 2 handball chain then sky it out of their backline to a contest on the wing and then a boundary throw in. This equals territory and it snuffed out a number of our attacks and momentum. 

9 hours ago, Garbo said:

More talls wouldn’t help tonight, our players just didn’t adapt for conditions where marking is going to be hard. Lowering the eyes or moving the ball more directly so our smalls can get it out the back without the other teaming having time to setup

Ben Brown naturally straightens us up and brings the smalls into play as he brings the ball to ground in dangerous areas.

9 hours ago, Garbo said:

More talls wouldn’t help tonight, our players just didn’t adapt for conditions where marking is going to be hard. Lowering the eyes or moving the ball more directly so our smalls can get it out the back without the other teaming having time to setup

I literally never see top sides drop their best talls if it's raining. Geelong didn't leave Hawkins and Cameron at home did they?

You need to maintain a structure. Petty or another tall up forward would have helped stop Stewart intercepting at ease and would have created a better focal point bombing it long inside 50, enabling better ground ball opportunities for our smalls.

Instead they plonk Gawn at FF. He. Is. Not. A. Forward. 

24 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Ben Brown naturally straightens us up and brings the smalls into play as he brings the ball to ground in dangerous areas.

The biggest difference that I see Ben Brown offers, is that he leads at the football. 
We have been creating space off turnovers when we move the ball well, but the problem with it is every forward runs back towards goal. We don’t have any forwards leading at the footy. There’s a bit of an issue with players wanting to kick the footy to where the player needs to go, but today especially it looked to be advantage side of the defender regularly. 
 

20 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

 

Instead they plonk Gawn at FF. He. Is. Not. A. Forward. 

I personally agree, I think we need to throw a different look at the team. bring in Schache or Brown. Drop Grundy. Or even play Petty forward, and bring in Tommo. 
 

I think the two rucks, is not a point of difference for the better. It’s removed one of our teams strengths, Max Gawns defensive intercept marking. It may prolong his career and he may play 3-5 games that dominate forward of the ball a year. But I agree he is not a forward. 
 

Our stoppage dominance is going to stand regardless of the two rucks, Gawn is the best ruck in the competition. We have the best midfield cattle in the competition. 
 

Scoring is our issue and we can afford to keep looking at different things to try and find a solution. If we aren’t scoring, we need to look at ways to score and we have a plethora of options playing VFL. 

2 minutes ago, Mad_Melbourne said:

Drop Grundy. 

Yeah nah

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Yeah nah

Agree, Max is in a lot more danger of being dropped. 

1 hour ago, BW511 said:

Agree, Max is in a lot more danger of being dropped. 

At least Grundy held his marks. 

12 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

I literally never see top sides drop their best talls if it's raining. Geelong didn't leave Hawkins and Cameron at home did they?

You need to maintain a structure. Petty or another tall up forward would have helped stop Stewart intercepting at ease and would have created a better focal point bombing it long inside 50, enabling better ground ball opportunities for our smalls.

Instead they plonk Gawn at FF. He. Is. Not. A. Forward. 

Just illustrating that even more talls than we went into the game with wouldn’t help on last night in that weather. As for Stewart if the goal is to stop him perhaps we shouldn’t have  had 2 inexperienced talls in smith and vanrooyen play together, sure bring petty fwd and keep Tomlinson in the team but you need to drop smith or vanrooyen then 

Edited June 23, 20231 yr by Garbo

On 6/22/2023 at 9:54 PM, Clint Bizkit said:

We have too many small forwards and out best key forward is playing for Casey.

We should have no more than two of:

- Pickett

- Chandler

- Spargo

- ANF

I would much rather have Smith, Brown, JVR, Fritsch and a resting ruckman than an ineffectual snall forward brigade like we have seen tonight.

I agree that we play too many small forwards. Spargo shouldn’t be playing and was a horrendous choice as sub. 

But IMO that spot should be another midfielder. We lack midfield depth and need another runner to work through stoppages. 

JVR, plus another tall, plus Fritsch, plus Gawn or Grundy resting forward, is probably sufficient. I don’t think we need to add Smith to that.

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I agree that we play too many small forwards. Spargo shouldn’t be playing and was a horrendous choice as sub. 

But IMO that spot should be another midfielder. We lack midfield depth and need another runner to work through stoppages. 

JVR, plus another tall, plus Fritsch, plus Gawn or Grundy resting forward, is probably sufficient. I don’t think we need to add Smith to that.

I want to see us go extra tall and really stretch defences with Smith, Brown, JVR, Fritsch and a maximum of two small forwards.

Prefer Gawn to drop back than forward.

A few posters moaning about our DE (in the wet)

So I thought I'd try to get some perspective to see where we sit as a team, and as individuals.

So far for the year - top is 75.4% - Essendon, overall average for DE across the league, is 72.6% and we sit just below the average at 72.4%

below us ARE

St Kilda,Sydney, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, Richmond, Gold Coast

Make of this what you will.

 

Average disposals across the league is 362 a match by each team.

724 a match between teams, missing targets 27.4% of the time. 198.37 disposals or 50 a quarter.

 

I was also curious about the D.E for all midfielders above 20 possessions a match.

Here's a table, to get a sense of what is realistic.

George Hewett is a bit of an outlier - I'd argue he spends a bit of time in defence, padding out his accuracy (there is a reason I say this coming up).

 

Player	Team	Age	Position	Matches	DisposalEfficiency
George Hewett	Carlton	28	Midfielder	10	82.266
Jaeger O'Meara	Fremantle	29	Midfielder	12	78.138
Callum Mills	Sydney	26	Midfielder	9	77.596
Karl Amon	Hawthorn	28	Midfielder	13	77.5
Blake Acres	Carlton	28	Midfielder	13	77.377
Josh Kelly	Greater Western Sydney	28	Midfielder	10	77.32
Scott Pendlebury	Collingwood	35	Midfielder	12	76.895
Adam Cerra	Carlton	24	Midfielder	14	76.702
Lachie Neale	Brisbane	30	Midfielder	14	76.203
Luke Davies-Uniacke	North Melbourne	24	Midfielder	7	76.19
Josh Ward	Hawthorn	20	Midfielder	7	76
Conor Nash	Hawthorn	25	Midfielder	13	75.49
Jai Newcombe	Hawthorn	22	Midfielder	13	75.484
Nic Martin	Essendon	22	Midfielder	13	75.433
Finn Callaghan	Greater Western Sydney	20	Midfielder	14	75
Tarryn Thomas	North Melbourne	23	Midfielder	3	75
Will Day	Hawthorn	22	Midfielder	11	74.737
Tom Mitchell	Collingwood	30	Midfielder	13	74.644
Tom Liberatore	Western Bulldogs	31	Midfielder	13	74.294
James Aish	Fremantle	28	Midfielder	12	74.089
Josh Dunkley	Brisbane	26	Midfielder	14	72.727
Jacob Hopper	Richmond	26	Midfielder	8	72.131
Jordan Dawson	Adelaide	26	Midfielder	13	71.866
Dylan Shiel	Essendon	30	Midfielder	10	71.759
Mason Wood	St Kilda	30	Midfielder	14	71.724
Rory Laird	Adelaide	30	Midfielder	13	71.585
Adam Treloar	Western Bulldogs	30	Midfielder	10	71.429
Steele Sidebottom	Collingwood	32	Midfielder	11	71.429
Andrew Brayshaw	Fremantle	24	Midfielder	13	71.081
Jack Crisp	Collingwood	30	Midfielder	13	70.677
Zach Merrett	Essendon	28	Midfielder	12	70.674
Marcus Bontempelli	Western Bulldogs	28	Midfielder	14	70.4
Zak Butters	Port Adelaide	23	Midfielder	14	70.341
Will Setterfield	Essendon	25	Midfielder	9	70.103
Luke Parker	Sydney	31	Midfielder	12	70.068
Ollie Wines	Port Adelaide	29	Midfielder	14	70.031
Will Brodie	Fremantle	25	Midfielder	5	69.903
Darcy Parish	Essendon	26	Midfielder	8	69.776
Jordan De Goey	Collingwood	27	Midfielder	11	69.708
Jy Simpkin	North Melbourne	25	Midfielder	11	69.604
Jack Steele	St Kilda	28	Midfielder	11	69.6
Josh Daicos	Collingwood	25	Midfielder	13	69.419
Dion Prestia	Richmond	31	Midfielder	13	69.258
Lachie Hunter	Melbourne	29	Midfielder	13	69.258
Will Ashcroft	Brisbane	19	Midfielder	14	69.032
Touk Miller	Gold Coast	27	Midfielder	6	68.874
Connor Rozee	Port Adelaide	23	Midfielder	14	68.839
Hunter Clark	St Kilda	24	Midfielder	11	68.722
Dom Sheed	West Coast	28	Midfielder	9	68.696
Patrick Cripps	Carlton	28	Midfielder	14	68.392
Noah Anderson	Gold Coast	22	Midfielder	13	68.286
Tom Green	Greater Western Sydney	22	Midfielder	13	67.718
Clayton Oliver	Melbourne	26	Midfielder	10	67.273
Christian Petracca	Melbourne	27	Midfielder	14	67.16

Clayton and Christian - hit a target 6.7 times out of 10 - For example - media darling, Marcus Bontempelli - 7 times out of 10 hits a target, or if you will, every 100 disposals, 3 more times he hits a target.

In checking other stats on @WheeloRatings website. Overall in the AFL - the top 50 players for DE - starts at 90.4% to 75%  - only 15 of those players are NOT defenders.

I think this is all useful information, to set expectations, when we ponder why so many targets are missed. We fail to take into account league averages.

Edited June 24, 20231 yr by Engorged Onion

Most of that top 15 on that list spend time on the wing, so on the outside, and off half back as you say with Hewett, @Engorged Onion.

This is three years in a row that we've struggled to score big and move the ball quickly enough during the middle part of the season, and still, people write off our chances at the pointy end and want to drop everyone etc.

Selwyn Griffith has made it plainly clear that players lose fitness as the season progresses and need to be topped up by additional kms in the legs and/or increased weights etc during the middle part of the season. 

Add to this, the additional weather factors of the June period, usually bring wet and ordinary conditions, and then you've got a recipe for increased disposal inefficiency, fumbling and an inability to get overlap and burst from stoppages, half back and any contested situation. Not to say it's impossible, but these factors are all in play and plainly influence results. Not just in our games, but league wide.

In Burgess' last year, Griffith was to shadow him and emulate his program the following years. Last year we had too many injuries and we allowed too many players to play through injury (taking from Burgess' philosophy of building resilience to injury). This year we're managing players better.

I've seen people suggesting we drop Chandler for a freshen up. Well, that's all well and good, but that's not really modern footy anymore. He won't be sitting around putting the legs up or he'll lose conditioning. He'll still need to do the same kms as if he were playing in the AFL, but it'll occur on the training track instead. So fatigue will be an issue in any games he or anyone else play until tapering occurs.

Some Demonlanders and MFC supporters on Facebook etc would like to think footy is as simple as when they played in the 90s or when played/play some ammo footy. Well, it's not, and without factoring in cumulative fatigue to decision making and ability to execute things like goal kicking, and somehow expecting 'leaders' to be better at this, I think is extremely flawed.

Look at our goal kicking accuracy between Rounds 1-9. We kicked the following scores:

R1 - 17.13

R2 - 13.4

R3 - 21.8

R4 - 19.12

R5 - 11.11 (this is the Essendon game off the back of a 6 break with travel from Perth, back to Melbourne, on to Adelaide)

R6 - 15.6 (we had an 8 day break into this, with this being the Richmond game on the 9th night)

R7 - 22.7

R8 - 13.12 (in a sluggish affair on the Gold Coast)

R9 - 15.13

Incredible accuracy. And then like 2021 and 2022, we started to struggle in game to get overlap, our contest work started to suffer, as did our ball movement and our accuracy started to decline.

Obviously, when ball movement starts to struggle, you're likely to get lower percentage options too. So remember how central and quickly we were moving the ball in the earlier rounds, and now how our ball movement has slowed and this has intersected with our poorer accuracy?

Since Round 9, we've gone the following:

R10 - 11.10 (lost clearances by 10 and were smashed on the outside)

R11 - 10.12 (goal kicking cost us, as did ability to execute clean disposals in the forward half and create turnovers in the forward half)

R12 - 8.13 

R13 - 8.18

R15 - 8.15

Marry all this up with cumulative fatigue, what Griffith said on the podcast and increasing the fitness base from the middle point to the back end of the season, and it's pretty undeniable we're going through the same stretch of heavy training again, which is having a huge impact on performance.

And then there's the clear drop offs during Rounds 11-19 in 2022 and Rounds 13-19 in 2021. These training blocks impact on accuracy, ball use and decision-making. That doesn't mean every result is determined by this, but when we do have results like the Geelong game or the Port or Freo games, it's too easy to simply say let's drop a bunch of guys, let's change our system etc.

Sure, we have to find the right mix at either end of the ground, and ensure we manage players properly, but we still have time.

In the back end of our season, there's less travel, weaker opponents, but there might also be some shock results up to that Round 19 area.

But the MFC does not exist in a vacuum. League wide, the standard of games has dropped overtly in the past month, something @binman has repeatedly pointed out.

I think top 2 *may* be out of reach now, but we're still very well placed for 3rd, particularly given Brisbane's own flakiness and their draw versus ours.

Edited June 24, 20231 yr by A F

9 minutes ago, A F said:

In Burgess' last year, Griffith was to shadow him and emulate his program the following years. Last year we had too many injuries and we allowed too many players to play through injury (taking from Burgess' philosophy of building resistance to injury). This year we're managing players better.

This is such a myth.  Burgo never had that philosophy.  His philosophy is always to play/train through soreness and fatigue but not through injury.  There is a big difference.

I’m a bit worried about our fitness/medical department to be honest. Since the Burgo/Brukner package departed our high performance management has been sub standard.  Last year cost us.  Oliver is the most recent red flag.

5 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

This is such a myth.  Burgo never had that philosophy.  His philosophy is always to play/train through soreness and fatigue but not through injury.  There is a big difference.

I’m a bit worried about our fitness/medical department to be honest. Since the Burgo/Brukner package departed our high performance management has been sub standard.  Last year cost us.  Oliver is the most recent red flag.

That was a typo. Resilience was the key word.

Can someone please tell me why, after Kozzie dominated on the ball in the opening round , and hasn’t been used since?

Thought i’d pop this here for context of accuracy.

 

 We're top 3 for goal accuracy in the league at 50.5% , league average is 48%

Further we are top 4 for shots a game - averaging 27, with Port 30.1, Adelaide and Brisbane on 28.8 and 28.1 respectively. League average 25.4 a game. 

@loges asked about the last 4 weeks.

8.15

8.18

8.13

10.12

34.58 or  41.46%  - 6.5% behind league average.

Last 4 rounds across the league up until this morning- 846 goals and 846 points. 50% accuracy.

So on the form of the last 4 matches - we are 9.5 goals per 100 shots short. That's effectively 2.5 goals a game (as we have around 27.5 on target shots a game).

3 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Thought i’d pop this here for context of accuracy.

 

 We're top 3 for goal accuracy in the league at 50.5% , league average is 48%

Further we are top 4 for shots a game - averaging 27, with Port 30.1, Adelaide and Brisbane on 28.8 and 28.1 respectively. League average 25.4 a game. 

@loges asked about the last 4 weeks.

8.15

8.18

8.13

10.12

34.58 or  41.46%  - 6.5% behind league average.

Last 4 rounds across the league up until this morning- 846 goals and 846 points. 50% accuracy.

So on the form of the last 4 matches - we are 9.5 goals per 100 shots short. That's effectively 2.5 goals a game (as we have around 27.5 on target shots a game).

So if we add the two goals to the Freo game, we win it.

Accuracy should improve as we head into the last 5 games of the H&A and finals.

On 6/23/2023 at 9:24 AM, Clint Bizkit said:

Ben Brown naturally straightens us up and brings the smalls into play as he brings the ball to ground in dangerous areas.

Yes he does, but he doesn't offer much defensively. He needs to harass the oppo when they have the pill.

On 6/23/2023 at 9:24 AM, Clint Bizkit said:

Ben Brown naturally straightens us up and brings the smalls into play as he brings the ball to ground in dangerous areas.

It appears the club has set Brown the last 8 weeks and finals.....let's see how that pans out

Stats don't tell the whole story as they don't relate to structure. We are a very defence-minded club and carry 3 smalls in the forward line to keep the ball locked in. Spargo, Kossie & Chandler with Neil-Bullen there for the same reason. So who in that quartet is currently kicking goals? There is your answer to the drop off in scores. Neither wingman, Ed or Hunter is kicking goals. Max/Grundy go forward and contest and bring it to ground but only a few goals. Watching both Geelong and Freo kick to leading forwards quite efficiently and giving their forwards space to move highlights that up forward we are to slow, not creative enough and only have Fritch and JVR as targets who have it bombed into them.

IMO plan A isn't working just as it didn't last year. Goody states that the forward line is a work in progress. I hope we are about to unleash plan B & C and change it up for the run home.

Compare Brisbane with Cameron, Mccarthy, Bailey, Daniher, Hipwood & Rainer or Geelong Hawkins, Cameron, Rohan, Stengle, Myers & Henry and you can see how settled they are and we still haven't sorted ours out. Time for the coaching staff to pull a rabbit out of a hat.

8 minutes ago, Older demon said:

Compare Brisbane with Cameron, Mccarthy, Bailey, Daniher, Hipwood & Rainer or Geelong Hawkins, Cameron, Rohan, Stengle, Myers & Henry and you can see how settled they are and we still haven't sorted ours out. Time for the coaching staff to pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Just on that.

 

Melbourne: Accuracy = 50.5%   Goal Per Inside 50's= 23.7 Scoring Shots Per game = 27

Brisbane: Accuracy = 49.4% Goal Per Inside 50's= 24.4 Scoring Shots Per game 28.1

Geelong: Accuracy = 52.9%: Goal Per Inside 50's= 26.7 Scoring Shots Per game 26.7

 

 

 

On 6/23/2023 at 7:52 AM, rpfc said:

They are not creating good chances against the best teams. It’s not simply ‘executing’ better in the 50. We don’t get it deep, and the amount of times we wait for Gawn to setup down there leads one to believe that we are bereft of ideas and forward options, especially ones we want to move the ball quickly to.

In both the kick out and kick to 30m from goal set up, it’s the waiting (usually for Max) that flags to the opposition the next play. Yes it’s obvious to our team as well, but I find it makes our marking target flat footed or tied up in that contest. Every team would work on what to do in this scenario coming into our games. As AF points out teams put players 10-15m off the landing zone with one front and square the other virtually playing third man up and marking easily across the front. We put two even 3 into the marking contest and getting tied up. In the inside 50m scenario I’ve quite often seen JVR not even attempt to mark but go in just to bring ball to ground. Again 2 - 3 of us going up 1 actually going for mark the other two as foils. Opposition sit one front square and one off and mop up time again. There were multiple times we had frittata, and another running goal side into space, but we just sat, waited for the set up. 

On radio last night Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data had a few interesting tidbits about us, including:

1. We are one of two clubs (Port's the other) to be top 6 in both conceding opposition inside 50s, and conceding scores from opposition inside 50s, noting that 14 of the last 17 premiers have been top 6 in both of these categories
2. Our profile over the last 6 weeks (which would be Rounds 10-15) is very similar to how we looked across the 6 weeks of Rounds 13-19 in 2021, including:
   1. scoring (15th in 2021, 16th now)
   2. generating scores from inside 50s (41% in 2021, 41% this year)
   3. generating shots on goal (7th most in 2021, 8th most this year)
   4. hard shots on goal (2nd hardest in 2021, 3rd hardest this year)
   5. accuracy (worst in 2021, 2nd worst this year)
3. Remembering that in 2021 this was our "poor stretch" and then we won the final four games and looked much better as we headed into finals - although I don't necessarily accept Hoyne's reasoning that we're about to flick a switch or something and it's all just going to come together. This would, though, align with @binman's views that we're in the middle of a poorer phase of play (for various reasons, including our training regime) but can expect to trend upwards from here.

34 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

On radio last night Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data had a few interesting tidbits about us, including:

1. We are one of two clubs (Port's the other) to be top 6 in both conceding opposition inside 50s, and conceding scores from opposition inside 50s, noting that 14 of the last 17 premiers have been top 6 in both of these categories
2. Our profile over the last 6 weeks (which would be Rounds 10-15) is very similar to how we looked across the 6 weeks of Rounds 13-19 in 2021, including:
   1. scoring (15th in 2021, 16th now)
   2. generating scores from inside 50s (41% in 2021, 41% this year)
   3. generating shots on goal (7th most in 2021, 8th most this year)
   4. hard shots on goal (2nd hardest in 2021, 3rd hardest this year)
   5. accuracy (worst in 2021, 2nd worst this year)
3. Remembering that in 2021 this was our "poor stretch" and then we won the final four games and looked much better as we headed into finals - although I don't necessarily accept Hoyne's reasoning that we're about to flick a switch or something and it's all just going to come together. This would, though, align with @binman's views that we're in the middle of a poorer phase of play (for various reasons, including our training regime) but can expect to trend upwards from here.

@titan_uranus - what radio station is this presented on?

21 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

@titan_uranus - what radio station is this presented on?

SEN. You can listen to it on the SEN Sports day podcast, and specifically the "Full On Footy Analysis with Daniel Hoyne".

55 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

On radio last night Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data had a few interesting tidbits about us, including:

1. We are one of two clubs (Port's the other) to be top 6 in both conceding opposition inside 50s, and conceding scores from opposition inside 50s, noting that 14 of the last 17 premiers have been top 6 in both of these categories
2. Our profile over the last 6 weeks (which would be Rounds 10-15) is very similar to how we looked across the 6 weeks of Rounds 13-19 in 2021, including:
   1. scoring (15th in 2021, 16th now)
   2. generating scores from inside 50s (41% in 2021, 41% this year)
   3. generating shots on goal (7th most in 2021, 8th most this year)
   4. hard shots on goal (2nd hardest in 2021, 3rd hardest this year)
   5. accuracy (worst in 2021, 2nd worst this year)
3. Remembering that in 2021 this was our "poor stretch" and then we won the final four games and looked much better as we headed into finals - although I don't necessarily accept Hoyne's reasoning that we're about to flick a switch or something and it's all just going to come together. This would, though, align with @binman's views that we're in the middle of a poorer phase of play (for various reasons, including our training regime) but can expect to trend upwards from here.

In relation to the first point, I have posted the updated "premiership metrics" for 2023. Melbourne currently rank in the top 6 in 18 of 19 of these metrics. The last 11 premiers all ranked in the top 6 in at least 14 of these 19 categories.