Farewell Sam Frost

[TGR 1,367]

27 minutes ago, Ben E said:

You continually impress me with your ingenuity (and absolute bloody mindedness) in including a derogatory remark about Lewis and/or his trade - no matter what the topic - in almost all of your posts (or at least the ones I happen to stumble across).

As that trade fades more into the distance (already three years ago, mind you), I’m just wondering who your new whipping boy(s) for the next few years will be. Ah wait, Lever or Preuss?

I’ll see your 10c and raise you last year’s prelim.

 

 

[Earl Hood 6,082]

21 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Whatever i say is only one opinion from an amateur observer WB.

Weighted average stats vs all defender peers, which include a significant negative factor for turnovers for all, show he was our best defender for the season.  Also well inside our best 22 ranked 11th, up a massive 19 places on his finish last season.  Statistically our biggest improver for the year by a country mile..up 26% on 2018.  And that, in a year where most where absolutely shizen in comparison.  Imagine IF he was playing in a team that was going just "Ok" this season, let alone 2018 levels.

Whilst that result was in a year of horribilis performance by many, we would need to see a miraculous turnaround by a stack of players, and a number of ordinary ones, to see him pushed outside or on the cusp of 22 if he maintains this year's output into 2020.  And what if he maintains this year's output and reduces the amount of turnovers significantly in 2020?  He takes another leap yet again.  Of course anythings possible, especially if his performance drops off next season (if he's still with us of course).

Just needs to be one KF that is pretty quick on the lead WB.  I can only refer back to one of the greatest lead up forwards of recent times in Rooey who stated that out of all defenders he had seen of late, Frosty was the last one he would want to play on due to his closing speed (ie., effective defense on a quick player such as Nick relies very much on athleticism and speed.

Rusty interesting to note on your weighted scores we had only 4 improvers this season and the club seems happy to send 2 of them on their way, in Frost and Stretch! And now the gossip is Frost might want out so our trade negotiation position  plummets. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

42 minutes ago, Earl Hood said:

Rusty interesting to note on your weighted scores we had only 4 improvers this season and the club seems happy to send 2 of them on their way, in Frost and Stretch! And now the gossip is Frost might want out so our trade negotiation position  plummets. 

Don't get too caught up in the Stretch improvement % EH.  Very flakey comparison as i only had two games of data to go on with his 2018 average (ie, barely an average).

However, he is ranked no.7 overall in 2019 (9 games a healthy sample), which on the surface you would argue probably worth keeping for run & carry depth on the outside.  The problem here is, and it's only my view, he doesn't run & break lines much from what i've witnessed.

Quite accurate with disposal though and we don't have too many of those.  Does he pull the trigger enough with his kicking beyond short safe kicks and take his opponent on often enough, at least to keep the FD & coach pleased to have him as depth etc?

Tackling pressure is up there ranked 10th on the list this season on averages so no issues there, especially given his size.  Ranked higher than Salem, Tracc, Jones.

Score involvements off a little ranked 17th.  Maybe not working hard enough both ways given he is effectively playing a winger type role between the arcs?  i50s ranked 17th and r50s 16th.

Frost on the other hand...at least worth trying to hang on to if possible.

Just as an aside Frosty gets criticised alot for turnovers and even i have concerns.  I know on another stat thread here champion data had him ranked poorly due to scores from his turnovers.  Ok so he's leaving his man, taking him on and breaking lines.  Turns ball over.  His man is often free and goals or goals through him.  But is this also a reflection of our mids inability to run defensively and help out?  Or alternatively an inability of say a Lever or May to cover off due to interrupted seasons?

Surprisingly Frosty is ranked a lowly 22nd in the team for average turnovers.  Lower is better here so he can't be as bad as we are making out surely.  Of all genuine defenders only Jetta (81.7%) and Lewis (77.6%) had a better DE% than Frosty (74.0), equal with O-Mac.  Keep in mind that Frosty was also our 3rd best intercept defender (7.4) this season just behind Lever (7.9) & Hore (7.5).

Edited September 25, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[Demons11 6,901]

42 minutes ago, Earl Hood said:

Rusty interesting to note on your weighted scores we had only 4 improvers this season and the club seems happy to send 2 of them on their way, in Frost and Stretch! And now the gossip is Frost might want out so our trade negotiation position  plummets. 

No offence but what a bunch of useless stats.

We won 5 games, do you really expect our list to improve after making the prelim in 2018 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

15 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

No offence but what a bunch of useless stats.

We won 5 games, do you really expect our list to improve after making the prelim in 2018 

I would have hoped so D11.  We lost the prelim (ie; not a GF which is the ultimate play off obviously) by 10 goals and a number of scribes had our list as primed and ready for a shot at the title pre-season.  Champion data had our list ranked No.1 also as you probably know.

Did i think we actually would?  No.  Pre-season i had us placed somewhere between 10th to 14th (or thereabouts).  Probably sub-consciously due to all the pre-season interruptis chatter.

2018 was a high level and there were always going to be a few who weren't going to match their 2018 levels for whatever reason but i don't think anyone expected such a mass drop as we've seen from so many this seaaon.  And especially not with such extreme variances.  5% to 10% sounds reasonable from some vs 2018 but for so many to drop as much as we see here?  Very few would have foreseen that sort of calamity.

Edited September 25, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[Demons11 6,901]

18 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

I would have hoped so D11.  We lost the prelim (ie; not a GF which is the ultimate play off obviously) by 10 goals and a number of scribes had our list as primed and ready for a shot at the title pre-season.  Champion data had our list ranked No.1 also as you probably know.

Did i think we actually would?  No.  Pre-season i had us placed somewhere between 10th to 14th (or thereabouts).  Probably sub-consciously due to all the pre-season interruptis chatter.

2018 was a high level and there were always going to be a few who weren't going to match their 2018 levels for whatever reason but i don't think anyone expected such a mass drop as we've seen from so many this seaaon.  And especially not with such extreme variances.  5% to 10% sounds reasonable from some vs 2018 but for so many to drop as much as we see here?  Very few would have foreseen that sort of calamity.

Sorry my comment came out wrong.  It was more around most players % wouldn’t improve based on the 5 win season not the fact we should have improved from one season to the next.

Still not sure my point is as clear as it should be.  Long day! ??‍♂️

Edited September 25, 2019 by Demons11

[Demons11 6,901]

32 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Don't get too caught up in the Stretch improvement % EH.  Very flakey comparison as i only had two games of data to go on with his 2018 average (ie, barely an average).

However, he is ranked no.7 overall in 2019 (9 games a healthy sample), which on the surface you would argue probably worth keeping for run & carry depth on the outside.  The problem here is, and it's only my view, he doesn't run & break lines much from what i've witnessed.

Quite accurate with disposal though and we don't have too many of those.  Does he pull the trigger enough with his kicking beyond short safe kicks and take his opponent on often enough, at least to keep the FD & coach pleased to have him as depth etc?

Tackling pressure is up there ranked 10th on the list this season on averages so no issues there, especially given his size.  Ranked higher than Salem, Tracc, Jones.

Score involvements off a little ranked 17th.  Maybe not working hard enough both ways given he is effectively playing a winger type role between the arcs?  i50s ranked 17th and r50s 16th.

Frost on the other hand...at least worth trying to hang on to if possible.

Just as an aside Frosty gets criticised alot for turnovers and even i have concerns.  I know on another stat thread here champion data had him ranked poorly due to scores from his turnovers.  Ok so he's leaving his man, taking him on and breaking lines.  Turns ball over.  His man is often free and goals or goals through him.  But is this also a reflection of our mids inability to run defensively and help out?  Or alternatively an inability of say a Lever or May to cover off due to interrupted seasons?

Surprisingly Frosty is ranked a lowly 22nd in the team for average turnovers.  Lower is better here so he can't be as bad as we are making out surely.  Of all genuine defenders only Jetta (81.7%) and Lewis (77.6%) had a better DE% than Frosty (74.0), equal with O-Mac.  Keep in mind that Frosty was also our 3rd best intercept defender (7.4) this season just behind Lever (7.9) & Hore (7.5).

Again useless stats.  Surely the fact he is equal with O Mac tells you that.  

I would also argue most players would take on more difficult kicks and this is what impacts their %.  Frost and O Mac both butcher 20m passes.

[Earl Hood 6,082]

11 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

Again useless stats.  Surely the fact he is equal with O Mac tells you that.  

I would also argue most players would take on more difficult kicks and this is what impacts their %.  Frost and O Mac both butcher 20m passes.

You are seeing it differently to me I am afraid. This year I saw Frosty’s use of the neat 20m hand drop onto his boot to a close target as an absolute plus. He has his limitations, this year he realises it and learns to lower the eyes and pick out a target 20m away, rather than boot the ball long hoping to hit a target. Not sure he butchured a heap of those, maybe he did. He still had the odd blind kick out of defence under pressure but so who doesn’t? He is not Rance but he has a lot of offensive attributes we could exploit if we had a good defensive coach. 

[Demons11 6,901]

5 minutes ago, Earl Hood said:

You are seeing it differently to me I am afraid. This year I saw Frosty’s use of the neat 20m hand drop onto his boot to a close target as an absolute plus. He has his limitations, this year he realises it and learns to lower the eyes and pick out a target 20m away, rather than boot the ball long hoping to hit a target. Not sure he butchured a heap of those, maybe he did. He still had the odd blind kick out of defence under pressure but so who doesn’t? He is not Rance but he has a lot of offensive attributes we could exploit if we had a good defensive coach. 

I am actually a Frost fan due to his offensive attributes but he has not a gun like a few are making him out to be. 

I am also not convinced they will actually play him in front of May, Lever, Petty and Tomlinson

[Earl Hood 6,082]

2 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

I am actually a Frost fan due to his offensive attributes but he has not a gun like a few are making him out to be. 

I am also not convinced they will actually play him in front of May, Lever, Petty and Tomlinson

Agree but there is a potential problem that we had to deal with year big time, injuries and depth. The chances of May and Lever all 22 is low. Petty may need to play forward again and Tomlinson, if he lands here, may be a swing man, half back, wing, forward, relieving ruck! Frost is at least resilient depth, he is usually available unlike May or Lever. 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, Demons11 said:

Again useless stats.  Surely the fact he is equal with O Mac tells you that.  

I would also argue most players would take on more difficult kicks and this is what impacts their %.  Frost and O Mac both butcher 20m passes.

Not all stats D11.  Some are actually utilised by clubs / coaches as performance measures.  Mostly ones that we rarely get to see.  Intercept marks would be one they would be looking at that is publicly available along with contested, pressure acts, tackles and some form of 1%ers (probably something more advanced than the public option).  Coaches / clubs would most likely also have their own player KPIs that they're expecting or hoping a player will achieve which probably alters from game to game depending on match ups / role being asked (both offensively and defensively) i would assume.

Some coaches can't stand stats and others might be a little more open.  In the end it comes down to the eyes of course.  Most clubs have a game day analyst looking at all this anyways and who probably have a bit more of this stuff going to a fro between line coaches and their relative players (defenders / mids / forwards etc) rather than the head coach.

But yes i agree KE% is pretty useless in isolation.  Champion has a kick rating that we never (or rarely) get to see that measures how well players do under various circumstances such as kicking to a target under pressure (both short kicks/ medium to long kicks etc), kicking to a target on a lead etc.  Unfortunately DE% and KE% is all we get publicly.  It's just a very rough guide as to how a player's trending IMO and needs to be looked at in terms of only comparing like with like (ie., defenders vs defenders etc. if there is such a thing nowadays given players tend to push into different areas of the ground at times, dragging their opponent up the field or looking for kicks on the wing etc).

Just to make your day, here's the kicking efficiency % of all MFC players for 2019 (excluding KK who i missed for some reason) who played two or more games for the year at round 9 vs where they finished at the end of season.  Obviously backmen are going to get plenty of cheapies out the back plus relatively easy kick out results etc which makes their numbers look better.  Mids under more pressure generally and expected to be lower etc etc...

Edited September 25, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[Brownie 5,969]

58 minutes ago, Earl Hood said:

You are seeing it differently to me I am afraid. This year I saw Frosty’s use of the neat 20m hand drop onto his boot to a close target as an absolute plus. He has his limitations, this year he realises it and learns to lower the eyes and pick out a target 20m away, rather than boot the ball long hoping to hit a target. Not sure he butchured a heap of those, maybe he did. He still had the odd blind kick out of defence under pressure but so who doesn’t? He is not Rance but he has a lot of offensive attributes we could exploit if we had a good defensive coach. 

Totally agree. His short passes really improved especially in the second half of the season.

Go back and watch the last few games. Ummm no, no-one would do that.

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

I don’t have an answer here, but what I find fascinating is what reasons  the Football Department see Frost as either expendable/problematic to their game plan going forward - or why they’re prepared to lose someone with trade currency, in service of obtaining what or whom going forward. 

Anyone make some sense on this for me?

[Adam The God 30,105]

47 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

I don’t have an answer here, but what I find fascinating is what reasons  the Football Department see Frost as either expendable/problematic to their game plan going forward - or why they’re prepared to lose someone with trade currency, in service of obtaining what or whom going forward. 

Anyone make some sense on this for me?

Pleasure.

When Frost sprints out of the backline with the ball under his arm, his team mates move into attacking positions up the ground. He then proceeds to turn the ball over by foot and the ball shoots back over his head, and out-positions his team mates.

In an effective team defence, you can't have a turnover merchant like Frost in your back 6. He's a hard trier and I like him, but if we're being serious, he completely undermines our defensive strategy. 

[Demon Disciple 12,052]

1 hour ago, Earl Hood said:

Frost is at least resilient depth, he is usually available unlike May or Lever. 

This cannot be underestimated. No he is no world beater, but he is a vastly superior defender to Oscar. No point having depth if they scrape the bottom of the barrel (OMAC).

[Adam The God 30,105]

48 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

This cannot be underestimated. No he is no world beater, but he is a vastly superior defender to Oscar. No point having depth if they scrape the bottom of the barrel (OMAC).

But is Sam capable of playing to a system? I don't think so. It ends up being Frostball, which is unsustainable. 

[Demon Forever 219]

Will signup with us! Watch this space

Edited September 25, 2019 by Demon Forever

[whatwhat say what 22,623]

2 minutes ago, Demon Forever said:

Will signup with us! Watch this space

is that because there aren't actually any offers from other clubs for his services after all?

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

49 minutes ago, A F said:

But is Sam capable of playing to a system? I don't think so. It ends up being Frostball, which is unsustainable. 

That ultimately comes back to good coaching and training methods / systems across all lines and excellent coaching at line level also AF surely, with coaches who know their business well and are great at communicating what's required etc.

Along with most putting in a full pre-season training as a unit together and ultimately finding some cohesion as a regular 22 (give or take a few changes but nothing like we've seen this season obviously).

If he can't carry out what's required and improve accordingly (vs set roles / requirements KPIs) within a reasonable time frame then like any other player he goes back downstairs until the coach / FD consider he is ready for another attempt / trial run.  It might take a month or more of adjustments/fine tuning/coaching at Casey.  Maybe more.

Isn't Frosty's development in this regard as much a test of our FD's skills and abilities as it is of Frosty himself?  If we let him go and wipe our hands i think this says more about the entire club than it does about the individual himself.

And let's assume Frosty moves on for whatever reasons (and i personally hope he doesn't), what's to say the same issue won't come up once again with another player who shows similar potential but also needs a few minor or more significant alterations?

Edited September 25, 2019 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Forever 219]

1 minute ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

is that because there aren't actually any offers from other clubs for his services after all?

Far from...

[Adam The God 30,105]

47 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

That ultimately comes back to good coaching and training methods / systems across all lines and excellent coaching at line level also AF surely, with coaches who know their business well and are great at communicating what's required etc.

Along with most putting in a full pre-season training as a unit together and ultimately finding some cohesion as a regular 22 (give or take a few changes but nothing like we've seen this season obviously).

If he can't carry out what's required and improve accordingly (vs set roles / requirements KPIs) within a reasonable time frame then like any other player he goes back downstairs until the coach / FD consider he is ready for another attempt / trial run.  It might take a month or more of adjustments/fine tuning/coaching at Casey.  Maybe more.

Isn't Frosty's development in this regard as much a test of our FD's skills and abilities as it is of Frosty himself?  If we let him go and wipe our hands i think this says more about the entire club than it does about the individual himself.

And let's assume Frosty moves on for whatever reasons, what's to say the same issue won't come up once again with another player who shows similar potential but also needs a few minor or more significant alterations?

Well, when we were playing effective system last season, Frost was in and out of the team. That's no accident. 

Despite greatly improving his 1v1, contested play, his spoiling, even his kicking, his decision making is still a liability. 

I find the idea that losing Frost will have Melbourne supporters up in arms, laughable. No, he doesn't need a run at Casey to get it right. He's been on the list for 5 years and been in the system even longer (8). His decision making isn't particularly better and he's reached his ceiling.

To imply that the coaches haven't told him how to work through situations better within game is naive IMO. They would regularly dissect his game and yet he continues to turn the ball over. But to tell Frost not to attack the game is to completely remove his biggest strength.

I think it makes sense for him to sign on with us at a reduced contract and play a depth role for us. He'll still likely get games due to the durability of Lever and May, and the fact that whoever our third tall defender is will take time to come on (Petty, Hore or Oscar).

Edited September 25, 2019 by A F

[WERRIDEE 5,433]

3 hours ago, Demons11 said:

I am actually a Frost fan due to his offensive attributes but he has not a gun like a few are making him out to be. 

I am also not convinced they will actually play him in front of May, Lever, Petty and Tomlinson

Petty should be forward it's where he's played his best football. Lever is a back pocket player and Frost is better than Tomlinson. Frost gets a game. SIGN ON PLEASE FROSTY!

[The Swimming Dee 1,904]

It’s called sell high my friends

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

32 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

Petty should be forward it's where he's played his best football. Lever is a back pocket player and Frost is better than Tomlinson. Frost gets a game. SIGN ON PLEASE FROSTY!

You have my vote Werridee.  Looks much more at home inside the Arc.  Haven't seen anything exceptional from him down back (so far) that makes me think he is more suited there.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Well, when we were playing effective system last season, Frost was in and out of the team. That's no accident. 

Despite greatly improving his 1v1, contested play, his spoiling, even his kicking, his decision making is still a liability. 

I find the idea that losing Frost will have Melbourne supporters up in arms, laughable. No, he doesn't need a run at Casey to get it right. He's been on the list for 5 years and been in the system even longer (8). His decision making isn't particularly better and he's reached his ceiling.

To imply that the coaches haven't told him how to work through situations better within game is naive IMO. They would regularly dissect his game and yet he continues to turn the ball over. But to tell Frost not to attack the game is to completely remove his biggest strength.

I think it makes sense for him to sign on with us at a reduced contract and play a depth role for us. He'll still likely get games due to the durability of Lever and May, and the fact that whoever our third tall defender is will take time to come on (Petty, Hore or Oscar).

There is no way of truly knowing either way whether he has or hasn't peaked AF.  Whether he's at the MFC or elsewhere, only time will tell.

He isn't a turnover king at all AF.  He had 21 players ahead of him this season.  Does he leave his man behind and the opp score either directly through his opponent or by having a spare up forward when he does turn it over up the field with a few caught out in offensive positions?  Seems likely eh. 

Unfortunately few others down back capable of escaping their opponents much of the time, which probably means they also aren't capable of running in support once he gets on one of his Frostball runs.  Is that lack of run / support more to do with a coaching game style (team rules) issue / or more a confidence / belief thing i wonder?  Or maybe personnel related...just don't have the leg speed in general?

That would mean an adjustment to ensure he finds a target by hand or foot much earlier into his manic runs or a few others need to run in support maybe (or if we don't have them we need to recruit a few in)?  Can't be that hard to fix surely.