AFL Round 5

[45HG 1,539]

Round 5 - yet another massive round of Aussie Rules. Obviously this year has been terrible, but I have found that writing these little columns has given me an outlet (despite the fact that most predictions I give should be reversed in order to be taken seriously!).

Essendon v Collingwood

Bang! It's the most over-rated, over-produced, over-hyped game on the calendar. I detest many things about it, but nothing more than the ridiculous glorification of (that's the way I see it, anyway) war and war stories and the incredibly tenuous link that the producers pull to tie together soldiers fighting for their lives and footballers being paid to entertain by kicking a ball around.

That said - it's a massive game. Made all the moreso by the standing of these two. One loss between them (to the highly-fancied Hawks) and both equipped to face the big stage.

As ever, form means little for this sort of game. That said, these teams have it.

Essendon are riding high (ha) with 4 straight wins, including a deconstruction of a St Kilda side the likes of which hasn't been seen for a decade.

Collingwood, with a shocking half of footy aside, have been very good in big games against the Blues and the Tigers. They're just going, however. The Blues had their measure for a good deal of the game but faltered late. The Tigers had their customary Richmond moment and conceded 8 straight goals (much to my confusion as I slept during this period). They dominated the Hawks early but were blown off the park and just got the job done against North.

Things in the Bombers' favour - they have massive form and their midfield is in unquenchable form.

Things in the Pies' favour - they have many dangerous goal-kickers, are well-atuned to the big stage and have won the last 7 against the Bombers.

My tip: The Bombers by 11

St Kilda v Sydney

The first game of Aussie Rules played for premiership points promises to be (in my view) a pretty disappointing one.

The Swans will be absolutely livid that they lost to the Cats the way they did. They were beaten to the ball and lost in the clinches. They won't do that again.

The Saints, too, lost in an uncharacteristic fashion. They were disorganised, had little of the ball and were regularly cut apart. The difference between the two sides is that, in my opinion, the Saints won't be able to do as much about their slip in form. It's simply the way they are headed.

The Swans will win too much hard ball and have too many goal-kickers. They've been a tough team to read this year (with two ok wins and one good quarter) but they will love playing on ANZAC day and should be too good.

Things in the Swans favour - they're a better team than the Saints and, importantly, they have an extra day's break.

Things in the Saints favour - they won a game against the Swans last year and may enjoy the trip to batten down the hatches. I think they'll need to learn that well, as they're losing it for mine.

My tip: Swans by 37

Fremantle v Richmond

Another massive test for the Tigers and a chance for the Dockers to stabilise a faltering campaign.

The Dockers' last 6 quarters haven't been much chop. To their credit, they stemmed the flow in the Hawks game after quarter time. The problem was that their stemming of the flow reflected that of a litre of milk that had been knocked from its perch - massive loss early and slow drips from there on until a predictable conclusion. A largely forgettable game where the Hawks just got the job done. The Dockers are tough to read. When they play well as a team they look very hard to top but when the team falters, they look below terrible.

The Tigers will rue 20 minutes of (what I assume to be) Richmond footy. They're looking a very good team this year, however, and I don't think the trip away will do them any harm at all. They'll enjoy the expanses of Patersons but will need to be very good by foot.

Things in the Dockers favour - their home ground advantage is exactly that, their well-drilled set up is hard to beat and they rolled the Tigers twice last year (once well against the odds).

Things in the Tigers favour - despite a shocking third quarter they're in decent form, they don't travel too badly and they have a good vibe about them.

A very tough game to tip, it really could go either way depending on which team clicks, for how long they do, and for how long the "Richmond thing" happens.

My tip: Tigers by 1

GWS v Gold Coast

At the start of the year, I thought this game was a certainty to be the "insert likely number 1 draft pick's name here" Cup.

But I was at that game yesterday...

Anyway, the Yawn Cup is here. At Manuka of all places. The AFL would've had a chuckle fixturing this little beauty.

GWS were plucky on the weekend. Their boys have a dip and, when their systems click, they can be pretty good to watch. When things go against them, however, they are below-Melbourneesque.

Gold Coast were disappointing. I barely saw any of the game so can't really comment and I don't care enough about this game to write much more.

Things in the Giants' favour - they were pretty good for 2 weeks and are returning to the scene of their first win - against this mob in the corresponding fixture last year.

Things in the Suns' favour - they've been in pretty good form and should enter this match with the confidence that they have a better midfield. They should get the job done, but they won't have it all their own way.

My Tip: The Suns by 30

Carlton v Adelaide

This feels a strange fixture. My guess is the AFL expected Carlton to be massive by now, and the Crows to be in red-hot form (whoops on both). Thus moving this game from Etihad. It feels like it should be an Etihad game. I suppose the Dogs are, really, that bad.

Anyway...

Another game to get a read of. In my mind, these teams are kind of similar. Carlton should shade the midfield whilst Adelaide have the easy out. It'll be interesting to see who is sent to The Mouse - stopping him could be key. Similar to the Tigers game, I think this could be a case of the team who makes the most of the run they get when they get it. I think that Carlton have looked better than Adelaide for the most this year and, at home, should get the job done in a tough one.

Things in the Blues' favour - running flair from Yarran and Garlett add an element to a star-studded midfield and the win on the weekend could see them hit form (in time for the Dees...)

Things in the Crows' favour - they pumped Carlton last year in their only meeting (though they look a shell of that now) and they have enough good players to, if they're in form, trouble any side.

My tip: Carlton by 17

Western Bulldogs v Geelong

Uh oh.

Pre-season I thought the Dogs were going to be terrible and vie for the bottom of the ladder. Round 1 put that into doubt. Rounds 2-4 brought it back with a vengeance.

As always, I've underrated Geelong massively.

This game could simply be a matter of how much Geelong care. That could see the margin range from 30-100 points. I'm worried it could be the latter.

Things in the Dogs' favour - they have some great names on their list (Griffin, Cross, Boyd and Cooney).

Things in the Cats' favour - they are immense and have won their last 5 against the Dogs.

My tip: Geelong by 63

Port Adelaide v West Coast

For this match 2nd versus 12th isn't a surprise.

The fact that it's in that order is. Port's win last week, for me, shows that they may hang around at the top for longer than I'd thought. West Coast's loss feels like they may be the Perth pretenders that I'd anticipated at the start of the season.

West Coast seem like they have too many good players to be losing. Port, however, have barely put a foot wrong all season - save for giving up a couple of early leads.

They have, however, played some trash teams. Melbourne, GWS and Gold Coast have been ticked off and, whilst they rolled the Crows they'd hardly want to give up 5 goals to them next time they play. How good West Coast actually is may determine this game. I don't think the Eagles are the real deal but I think they're much better than they've been going.

Things in the Power's favour - form. 4-0 can't be sneezed at. They attack the footy hard and can kick goals in a hurry.

Thing in the Eagles' favour - they've won the last 3 against the Power, have a star-studded lineup and, surely, can only play better than they have been.

My tip: Eagles by 17

Brisbane v Melbourne

As Eminem once wrote/rapped: back to reality, whoop there goes gravity.

Dees are going to fall back to reality. How hard will depend on how well the boys are able to keep their heads up when the run (and the crowd) goes against us. Given how poor we were at that last week (and the first 3) - my hopes aren't high.

The Lions have made a mockery of the NAB cup - so much so that I wonder if they'll have their winners cheque revoked! Nonetheless, they do well what we are rubbish at - and without Mitch Clark we'll struggle.

Last year, we won the inside 50 count but lost the game by ten goals.

I don't think we'll win the inside 50 count this year, but I think the result will be about the same.

The X factor in this game is the impact a win could have. Last year, the win took until round 10. The Dees won 3 of their next 12 (albeit against expansion sides) but also could easily have got up over the Dockers and Power. That'd make it 6 wins out of 13 to round out the year. Some confidence, some run forward of the ball and some good ball use around 50 could be massive.

I don't think we've turned the corner that early this season. 3 rounds of disgusting footy and two quarters of inept, pressure-free footy does not disappear that easily.

Things in the Lions' favour - home ground advantage (this really showed against the Crows) and Redden getting off at the tribunal is huge for them. They've won the last two against the Dees as well.

Things in the Dees' favour - momentum. 12 goals in a quarter could do monumental things.

My tip: Lions by 57

Hawthorn v North Melbourne

North Melbourne will become one of the best 1-4 teams in history.

That's not to say that they are very good. But 1-4 they ain't.

A deserved win arrived with a bang on Sunday. As the confidence of a win arrived, the Roos put their foot down against a hapless Lions side. Similar to Freo in that they need the whole side on board, the 'Roos have many lesser lights that can make life frustrating for the opposition.

For Hawthorn, however, lesser lights are just that. They're a well-drilled, skillful, arrogant unit who know how to win. 42-55 point wins against top 8 sides underscores their dominance (the thing with Geelong is, well, bizarre!).

North will try hard, they'll be tough to shake at times, but Hawthorn will control the match, will keep goals when it matters and, at the end of the day, will be too good.

Things in the Hawks' favour - they're the best team in the comp at the moment, in form and have won 4 of the last 5 against North.

Things in North's favour - the win may knock the monkey from the back and Schoenmakers' injury could free up the mighty Petrie.

My tip: Hawks by 27

Game of the Round

Bombers Pies

Thrashing of the Round

Cats Dogs/Dees Lions

Toughest to pick

Dockers Tigers

Upset of the Round

Bombers/Tigers

Closest tip last week

Missed the Dees over GWS by 2 points

[Guest rednblue4life]

upset of the round DEES by 3points

[45HG 1,539]

Went the wrong way...

[BarnDee 287]

us by 16

[jackaub 1,402]

put $100 on the dees at $5.80 too good o pass when I think we are a definite chance

definitly winnable if we go hard for long enough

[P-man 13,275]

Watching that game last night has made me think we may not be as far behind some teams as I thought.

[jazza 1,323]

Watching that game last night has made me think we may not be as far behind some teams as I thought.

were not far back as some think,the end of 2014 will give a good pointer to the list.

[Ted Lasso 17,018]

Had a dream last night that we beat them 92-74 howe kicked 6 and frawley kept brown to 5 touches haha, going on that ran down and put 50 dollars on a win