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It appears round one is flawed.

Bagdana
Bagdana
in Melbourne Demons

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I know this competition is just a gimmick but how is a team who've just played a half of footy supposed to be competitive against fresh legs?

This weekend, every team that played a consecutive half lost.

Match one - works, even match, better team triumphs.

Match two - whom ever played in match one (against the fresh team) loses.

Match three - whom ever played in match two (against a freshened, one match off, team) loses.

Correction, one exception, Collingwood beat G.W.S. but they're not really an AFL team are they?

By this logic, next week I expect us to beat GC and lose to Brisbane.

Can someone please tell me it's not all this simple?

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      On 19/02/2012 at 12:58, Territory said:
    I know this competition is just a gimmick but how is a team who've just played a half of footy supposed to be competitive against fresh legs?

    This weekend, every team that played a consecutive half lost.

    Match one - works, even match, better team triumphs.

    Match two - whom ever played in match one (against the fresh team) loses.

    Match three - whom ever played in match two (against a freshened, one match off, team) loses.

    Correction, one exception, Collingwood beat G.W.S. but they're not really an AFL team are they?

    By this logic, next week I expect us to beat GC and lose to Brisbane.

    Can someone please tell me it's not all this simple?

    Umm... Okay, it's not that simple.

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    Yep, I think you got it in one Territory. I noticed a similar pattern in a few early games last year as well...I almost took the odds of 13/1 for GWS v Pies just for that reason.

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    Seriously though, the NAB is about new players, different game plans, set ups, structures etc.. Whilst a win is great, it's hardly anything to base form from.

    I really don't read too much into it.

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    What is flawed is your sample: too small.

    Exhibit A (and I don't have a B) is Melbourne last year played consecutive games against Adelaide and Port and won both.

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    It is a flawed concept but it is only a pre-season cup, nothing more than a glorified practice match really!

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      On 19/02/2012 at 22:40, pitmaster said:

    Melbourne last year played consecutive games against Adelaide and Port and won both.

    Correct. In what you'd call a hostile environment to boot.

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      On 19/02/2012 at 22:52, H_T said:

    Correct. In what you'd call a hostile environment to boot.

    Was close to the high point of our year in 2011.

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    Yeah...sample is definitely way too small to even consider a trend.

    Not to mention there are way too many other variables to consider.

    You'd need to analyse the players that played in both games. If there were any injuries. The home ground advantage. The coaching strategies. Should i go on?

    Look up correlation statistics 101 for a better understanding.

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    I agree the sample is too small, fair point made. But I'll have a flutter this weekend on the whim as Wadda We Sing nearly did last weekend.

    Hopefully the small sample size means it hasn't affected the odds!

    D 4 Life, yes there are other variables that add to the formulation of a correlation between variables (winning and losing), I understand that. My hypothesis is, being knackered effects the outcome much more dramatically than most other factors. Collingwood resting half its team and Essendon travelling to Perth would examples of these "other variables" that one would need to consider.

    I do also understand that the outcome really doesn't matter and am just keen to have a look at the boys and whatever game plan is on show but, at the end of the day, just hope we escape without injury. I only mention it as I find the format... interesting.

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    Melbourne is taking 34 players this coming weekend. If we assume that every side is doing similar, the variables are far and wide.

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    Play as many kids as we can. Spread the load & cross the fingers nobody goes down. The NAB Cup in a nutshell.

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    The real question is why are Melbourne copping yet another interstate trip? In an even competition surely the teams that travelled last year should be playing at home this year. We copped the road trip from hell to Adelaide to play against two home teams, and now we're being sent to the Gold Coast. When will the AFL lay off and let Melbourne play a game at home?

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      On 20/02/2012 at 06:30, RalphiusMaximus said:

    The real question is why are Melbourne copping yet another interstate trip? In an even competition surely the teams that travelled last year should be playing at home this year. We copped the road trip from hell to Adelaide to play against two home teams, and now we're being sent to the Gold Coast. When will the AFL lay off and let Melbourne play a game at home?

    Next week.

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    Our interstate record is so poor i am happy to keep getting practise.

    Perfect time for Neeld to set a standard when travelling.

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    to be fair though its a trip to the gold coast...to play bris and the gc.

    it'll be a nice holiday with a heavier than normal training session on saturday night

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      On 20/02/2012 at 10:07, rolly said:

    to be fair though its a trip to the gold coast...to play bris and the gc.

    it'll be a nice holiday with a heavier than normal training session on saturday night

    And us poor members in Qld get an early couple of games under the belt! :)

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