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2011 Odds

Sydney Dee
in Melbourne Demons

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Posted

The latest premiership odds make for interesting reading.

FLAG

1304 COLLINGWOOD 3.00

1313 ST KILDA 6.00

1308 HAWTHORN 7.00

1307 GEELONG 8.00

1316 WESTERN BULLDOGS 9.00

1306 FREMANTLE 13.00

1303 CARLTON 15.00

1301 ADELAIDE 26.00

1310 MELBOURNE 26.00

1314 SYDNEY 26.00

1309 NORTH MELBOURNE 34.00

1305 ESSENDON 51.00

1312 RICHMOND 51.00

1302 BRISBANE 81.00

1317 GOLD COAST 81.00

1311 PORT ADELAIDE 81.00

1315 WEST COAST 81.00

TOP 8

5041 ADELAIDE 1.75

5042 BRISBANE 4.50

5043 CARLTON 1.65

5044 COLLINGWOOD 1.05

5045 ESSENDON 3.50

5046 FREMANTLE 1.50

5047 GEELONG 1.35

5048 HAWTHORN 1.25

5049 NORTH MELBOURNE 3.00

5050 MELBOURNE 1.65

5051 PORT ADELAIDE 5.00

5052 RICHMOND 2.75

5053 ST KILDA 1.25

5054 SYDNEY 1.90

5055 WEST COAST 5.00

5056 WESTERN BULLDOGS 1.30

5057 GOLD COAST 6.50

TOP 4

5021 ADELAIDE 4.00

5022 BRISBANE 15.00

5023 CARLTON 3.50

5024 COLLINGWOOD 1.20

5025 ESSENDON 13.00

5026 FREMANTLE 2.75

5027 GEELONG 2.50

5028 HAWTHORN 2.00

5029 NORTH MELBOURNE 9.00

5030 MELBOURNE 3.50

5031 PORT ADELAIDE 17.00

5032 RICHMOND 8.00

5033 ST KILDA 2.00

5034 SYDNEY 4.00

5035 WEST COAST 17.00

5036 WESTERN BULLDOGS 2.25

5037 GOLD COAST 21.00

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    Ridiculously short all round. We are a genuine chance to sneak into the 8 but i rate us slightly worse than 50/50....say $2.25. The $1.65 on offer is a joke !

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    Now that Chippa has gone down-I would not be taking any of these ridiculously short odds.

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    • Author

    My thougts exactly. I was prepared to have a big lash at them if they were anything over evens for the finals, but I'll stay out while they are 8/13

    Edited by Sydney Dee

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    1.65 is appropriate for a final eight position. Most pundits think we will make it. If we don't Bailey will certainly be gone. 26.00 is appropriate for the flag and 3.50 for top four looks a little short.

    I would not be too concerned about the negative impact of Frawley's injury at this early stage of the year. One positive I can glean from this is that if there was any hint of complacency lurking in the ranks this setback will have snuffed it out by now.

    Edited by america de cali

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    TOP 8

    5049 NORTH MELBOURNE 3.00

    5050 MELBOURNE 1.65

    That one got me confused.

    How can a team that finished higher than us last year and has beaten us the last 8 times be so much less fancied to make the 8.

    Edited by Bring-Back-Powell

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    Ridiculously short all round. We are a genuine chance to sneak into the 8 but i rate us slightly worse than 50/50....say $2.25. The $1.65 on offer is a joke !

    agreed, 2.25 is exactly what I would have suggested was a reasonable number

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    •  

    My best bets from above odds:

    The latest premiership odds make for interesting reading.

    TOP 8

    5051 PORT ADELAIDE 5.00

    TOP 4

    5027 GEELONG 2.50

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    If I was a bookie, I'd be offering the same odds as above. It's not just with the knowledge of that Melbourne is on the up either, you must take into account the following when putting up an odds board:-

    * Melbourne's draw

    * Melbourne's improvement

    * Melbourne's punters (big punters)

    * Money already laid (indicators)

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    That one got me confused.

    How can a team that finished higher than us last year and has beaten us the last 8 times be so much less fancied to make the 8.

    See above post.

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    The odds are always like this at the start of the year - pathetic. Wait until a couple of rounds in and the money starts to flow. Then the books will be adjusted into more realistic prices.

    Wait until the Pie fans start ploughing their hard earned on back to back and then the odds will be wound out for the others!

    I would bet that at some point in the year we will be over 40 to 1 for a flag after we have lost 2 or 3 in a row.

    As for the 8 we are less than even money and given nearly half the teams will make the 8 we are a good chance. $1.65 seems skinny but not too far from what it should be - maybe $1.85.

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    I was hoping we would be a bit longer for top 8, but it is probably not that far off.

    Whose odds are these? I'm assuming Tab sportsbet. Would get better on betfair or sportsbet like usual

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    • Author

    I was hoping we would be a bit longer for top 8, but it is probably not that far off.

    Whose odds are these? I'm assuming Tab sportsbet. Would get better on betfair or sportsbet like usual

    They are from TAB Sportsbet. Other agencies for the Top 8:

    Sportingbet - $1.80

    Betfair - Averaging $1.91 (not much money in the pools)

    Betezy - $1.65

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    They are from TAB Sportsbet. Other agencies for the Top 8:

    Sportingbet - $1.80

    Betfair - Averaging $1.91 (not much money in the pools)

    Betezy - $1.65

    DEESBET - $1.65. (I know it is part of Betezy, but I thought it was at least deserving of a mention).

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    Final 8 betting for us is effectively a five horse race for 2 positions/ dividends, with the Crows, Swans, Roos and Blues our real competition. The remaining 12 teams can be exactly divided into " THE CERTAINTIES " and "THE HOPELESS ". The deciding factor for us may well be reasonable luck with injuries.

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    Final 8 betting for us is effectively a five horse race for 2 positions/ dividends, with the Crows, Swans, Roos and Blues our real competition. The remaining 12 teams can be exactly divided into " THE CERTAINTIES " and "THE HOPELESS ". The deciding factor for us may well be reasonable luck with injuries.

    No it won't be injuries so much that will determine our season as every team will be effected by them, it will be whether we can win away from the MCG.

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