THE TOP SIX

[rpfc 28,784]

Well let's do it again.

Top 6 in 2009 - Davey, Bruce, Green, Moloney, McLean, and Sylvia.

A possible A grade wingman, 2 ageing B+ players, 2 injury prone and slow midfielders, and a young man who we all hope can be a damaging HFF.

Not the stuff flags are made of (to make that pithy).

Most likely 'Top 6 in 2010' - Davey, Sylvia, Moloney, Jones, Warnock, and Rivers.

Mostly owing to the fact that are defence is our strong area and the first four provide 100 possessions every game. No inside/outside dynamic midfielder present, and little speed mean that if this is our best 6 in 2010 we are not going to have that rapid improvement we all desire.

The 'Top 6 in 2010' that would see us improve significantly as it means the continued progress of important young players, and is possible given a proper pre-season - Davey, Sylvia, Grimes, Frawley, Morton, and Jones.

This puts a lot of pressure on the last 4 boys considering their ages (and some may question Jones but if we are to do well next year, we are going to have to get better in the clearances and he is our most naturally gifted clearance player). We know what Davey and Sylvia at their best can do, consistency is what they need.

Grimes in the midfield could be our dynamic in/out mid that we have crying out for, Frawley can be the Scarlett-like counter-attacking gorilla-tamer, Morton could be a Richo-resembling wingman that floats across at both end of the field and impacts the game, and I have already mentioned the importance of a clearance player like Jones stepping up and cleaning up his disposal.

Now I beleieve that this is their destiny, but it is all about how quickly they to get these destinations that will determine our improvement in this competition.

[45HG 1,559]

Rivers is no where near top 6 IMO

[Hannabal 4]

Actually, this thread popped into my head around the time the Brock news broke. I remember wondering if H had him in his all-famous top 6, which he did.

I think that says something at least about the quality of what we just lost.

No, it helps reflect why we came last.

Interestingly, the Blues top 5 place getters in their B&F were Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, and Fevola. Three of them were pick 1's and one other was a pick 3. It really is apparent how valuable top 4 picks are and that our own rebuild should reap tremendous rewards.

And yes, McLean was a top 5 pick and a soild 200 gamer. But he was certainly no star and we need them. The draft he came from must be in the worst 2 ever.

Edited September 30, 2009 by Hannibal

[rpfc 28,784]

Rivers is no where near top 6 IMO

The role he plays lends itself to a lot of action if the midfield remains shizen, so my 'most likely' Top 6 was a bit pessimistic on what we would achieve next year, a bit conservative.

But if Grimes, Morton, Frawley, and Jones can take on greater roles in 2010 (and the senior players stay injury free) we should have a decent season.

[Toad33 57]

Carlton don't have a "star top 6" yet though. Murphy is a good young player, but still turns the ball over with his disposal; Gibbs doesn't win his own footy yet, or hurt the opposition on the scoreboard; Simpson is a good player but no star; Waite is obviously injured and Fevola plays on his own terms. I said in my OP that Carlton's top 6 is presently overrated and you're falling into the same trap. I believe that their current position on the ladder pretty accurately reflects the rating of their top 6.

Also, stars make others around them far better players. We'd all be able to give examples where a seemingly very good player has gone to a struggling club and pretty quickly been found out to be no better than average; Heffernan and Blumfield immediately come to mind, but there'd be stacks more. The point being, if you assemble elite top end quality the ripple effect through the team is palpable. In other words depth becomes a by-product of an elite group of top players.

Finally, it just doesn't make sense that the bottom 6 of a team's 22 can possibly effect outcomes of a match equal to the stars in the team.

Just keep looking at the ladder from year to year. The evidence doesn't lie.

Great post Hannibal. I must have missed it the first time around.

The top 6 bottom 6 stuff reminds me of some comments I heard on the ABC back in the late '90s, by Leigh Matthews, before a Melbourne vs Essendon game, between his coaching stints at Colling^&^ and the Bears. I can't remember what game he was previewing but I remember the team most expected to win comfortably had injuries to 'average regular' players and had made some changes at the selection table that week.

He tipped the other team to win which prompted a 'please explain' from Tim Lane and the others.

He then proceeded to point out quite succinctly that the top 6 players of each team will most likely beat their respective opponents or at the very least break even. The middle 6 will break even and the bottom 6 on the day will determine the outcome. (He didn't mention anything about stars, he was more interested in a players 'reliability factor'.)

He was right. The team he tipped won.

At the time I was intrigued at how a complex labyrinth of factors that could effect the outcome of a game could be largely dismissed for something so simple.

It is something I have thought about and applied to tipping game results from time to time when teams on a winning streak lose some players; just to test his theory. Without knowing the exact numbers, I can say that around 75% of the time it is correct.

Which I guess begs the question.

How much does the stability of the playing personell in the team, or the lack of team changes week to week, influence the outcome regardless of the players ability?

Go Dees -Building for the future

[Rogue 585]

Rivers is no where near top 6 IMO

He's probably the most over-rated bloke on our list atm [fwiw, I like Rivers].

[rpfc 28,784]

He's probably the most over-rated bloke on our list atm [fwiw, I like Rivers].

I am well aware of the limitations of Rivers.

But I am also aware of the limitations of our list.

If we don't improve and he stays healthy he will be in our top 6 due to the sheer amount of footy he would see.

If a few of our young players come on, then his role will diminish and he will be not be in our top 6.

[45HG 1,559]

Out of fun, what would your top two for each part of the ground look like?

Frawley, Garland

Davey, Moloney

Jurrah, Bate

[rpfc 28,784]

Out of fun, what would your top two for each part of the ground look like?

Frawley, Garland

Davey, Moloney

Jurrah, Bate

Frawley & Warnock, Davey & Sylvia, Jurrah & Bate if we are decent.

Rivers & Bruce, Davey & Moloney, Bate & Green if we don't improve.

[45HG 1,559]

If we don't improve, Green won't be going forward.

[rpfc 28,784]

If we don't improve, Green won't be going forward.

Good point.

[beelzebub 23,383]

Most likely 'Top 6 in 2010' - Davey, Sylvia, Jurrah , Grimes, Trengove and Warnock

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Most likely 'Top 6 in 2010' - Davey, Sylvia, Jurrah , Grimes, Trengove and Warnock

If they stay on the park pretty close I reckon. Frawley and Garland also possibilities/

A couple of roughies, don't all laugh at once.

M Jamar, N Jones.

[beelzebub 23,383]

If they stay on the park pretty close I reckon. Frawley and Garland also possibilities/

A couple of roughies, don't all laugh at once.

M Jamar, N Jones.

I wouldnt laugh. If teh Russian stays he might well take another step up. That would be impressive and most welcome. Im still not altogether sure where Nuggets future will take him. He may well be impsired and directed by the presence of real skill and abilitiy in the newcomers to modify hisown game and step up the 'cleverness' of his game.

Garland is starting to concernme in teh same way Jared does..and infact Brocky did ( for me ). Repeated time in physical rehab etc is just a negative outcome in all reality if continual.

[Rogue 585]

Your top two for each part of the ground looks about right, 45.

Moloney's 'hard body' will be important.

If we don't improve and he stays healthy he will be in our top 6 due to the sheer amount of footy he would see.

The key defenders will be more important - Warnock and Frawley.

IMO Garland would also be more important if he was fit (and didn't get moved forward).

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

we have about 15 on the list who have either shown their worth on match days and/or got taken at a high draft pick

the best 6 of that lot should be very good indeed, I can only get it down to 10 extremely promising players; 2 KPF 2 KPD and 6 midfielders.

Watts (18), Jurrah(21),

Frawley(21), Garland (21),

Grimes (20), Morton (19),

Jones(21), Sylvia (24),

Scully (18), Trengove (18)?

All of those players have proven something already except the three 18 year olds, who are 1st/2nd draft picks

I'm confident with this group

[deanox 9,996]

i dont have the time to do it, mostly because i don't know complete stats ie height and position of everyone in H's original post however i woukld be very interested to see a break down of:

talls v smalls

age

mids vs backs vs forwards

inside vs outside mids

for the list of players that may make up apparent top 6 groups (i think this top 6 argument is on the money).

it would be interesting to see that list as a comparision for the top 4 sides, compared to the rest, to see if any specific combination of players seem to be more important (ie mids not forwards, forwards not backs, talls not smalls, KPP not flankers, if there is a specific age or games experience that is optimal).

i realise thats a lot of work, so if anyone has a spare 20 minutes and just wants to work out positional data ie mids vs forwards vs backs, i think that would make a very intersting read.

[scarlett 247]

we have about 15 on the list who have either shown their worth on match days and/or got taken at a high draft pick

the best 6 of that lot should be very good indeed, I can only get it down to 10 extremely promising players; 2 KPF 2 KPD and 6 midfielders.

Watts (18), Jurrah(21),

Frawley(21), Garland (21),

Grimes (20), Morton (19),

Jones(21), Sylvia (24),

Scully (18), Trengove (18)?

All of those players have proven something already except the three 18 year olds, who are 1st/2nd draft picks

I'm confident with this group

just wanted to bring this back to the top. after two solid games now who gets moved into the top six. and also the bottom six to see the gap between. the gap between is quite important too.

[pringle 42]

Top 6 now or predicted?

If I had to pick my best 6 so far this year, it would be:

Jamar, Davey, Grimes, Green, Frawley and (raffle Beamer, Warnock or McDonald (James)).

But going forward, I would think it is still VERY tough to choose. Do we base it on games played already? Because if so you would probably not have a Scully or Watts in there, even though we know they are likely to turn out as great players. I think Trengove has already shown he has the talent. Jurrah is a freak but does he have the application and body to make it big? There have been tiny glimpses from Scully (but tiny) and still not much from Watts (though I was at that Coburg vs Casey debut last year when he kicked 3 goals... and that turn onto the left boot to kick that ripper goal - albeit a floater - was special!!!

Anyway, I think there is still a loooong way to go, but interested to hear a few people's selections.

[Eth 4]

Geelong - Ablett/Chapman/Bartel/Selwood/Johnson/Scarlett (Corey/Ottens/Ling)

St. Kilda - Riewoldt/Hayes/Goddard/Dal Santo/Montagna/Koschitzke (Ball/Gilbert)

Thing about these two teams is that their second best 6 is still a really great bunch, as they'd read:

Geelong - Corey/Ottens/Ling/Enright/Mooney/Rooke

St. Kilda - Gilbert/Jones/Dawson/Ray/Milne/Gardiner or King

They'd be better than Richmond's best 6. Wait, their bottom 6 is better than Richmond's best 6. :D

Thanks Hannabal for this great post by the way

[e25 5]

GREAT bump.

Maybe though it should then be a top 8 or top 10, as then the drop-off in quality would be more prominent.

My demons top 6 would be:

Sylvia, Green, Grimes, Jamar, Davey, Frawley.

Jurrah, Morton, McDonald or Garland could easily slide in there and soon enough Watts, Scully and Trengove will also push to be included.

Now a little crystal ball gazing.

I think a good indicator is also the quality of player that you simply can't consider for the 6 (at least yet) - Rivers, Bate, Petterd, Bennell, Jetta, Bruce, Jones, Moloney.

In coming years Blease, Tapscott, Strauss & Gysberts.

[2014-Flag 0]

I touched on the importance of a club’s top 6 in another thread and thought that it would be a worthwhile exercise to evaluate the whole competition’s top 6.

For those that didn’t read the post in another thread let me expand. A few years ago Craig Cameron effectively denounced the widely held belief that “a team is only as good as the bottom 6 of its best 22”. He argued and conclusively proved to me that a team is only as good as it ‘best 6’. He pointed out that if one analyzed the end of year ladders over recent seasons there was a strong correlation between the ‘H&A’ ladder at round 22 and the quality of a club’s top 6 players. In most cases the ladder at year’s end mirrors the quality of the team’s top 6 players. Naturally, it won’t be absolute due to vagaries such as injury, but the pattern is undeniable. And it’s not to say that the bottom 6 isn’t important to a team’s flag chances, as we know that all great sides have good depth, but it’s the stars that determine how well a team can be built and how deep it will go into September. Carlton is a prime example that ‘no depth = average team’, plus I reckon their top 6 is currently overrated, despite Judd at the helm, as their young are still a couple of years away.

I’ve long held the belief that stars win flags and that our dearth of genuine top shelf stars has precluded us from ultimate glory even when we were regular finals contenders. Whilst our very best players since the AFL officially came into being in 1990 delivered sustained periods of success and many Finals appearances they fell short of being the games elite. More importantly, we haven’t had the champion midfielders that are almost always required to ensure a premiership. This gets back to the quality required in a team’s ‘top 6’.

It’s no coincidence that Connolly and Prenderghast have both earmarked in a recent article that it is players that have the ability to become “stars” that we would be targeting in the upcoming draft. It’s our lack of quality in our ‘top 6’ that more than anything else sees us languishing at the bottom of the ladder.

I’ve listed the players I believe to be the top 6 of all clubs below. It’s always a little subjective, but it won’t be far off. The players aren’t named in any particular order and I’ve included a couple of line-ball players of each team in brackets.

Would Geelong’s second ‘best 6’ be stronger than our ‘top 6’ ?

The clubs are in alphabetical order:

Adelaide - Thompson/Edwards/Goodwin/McLeod/Rutten/Bock (Vince/Porplyzia)

Brisbane - Brown/Black/Power/Adcock/Bradshaw/Drummond (Clark/Brennan)

Carlton - Judd/Fevola/Waite/Murphy/Gibbs/Simpson (Stevens/Thornton)

Coll - Swan/Didak/Davis/Pendlebury/Fraser/Lockyer (Cloke/Presti)

Essendon - Watson/McVeigh/Stanton/Lovett/Lloyd/Fletcher (Ryder/Winderlich)

Fremantle - Pavlich/Sandi/Duffield/Hasleby/Mundy/Schammer (McPharlin/Palmer)

Geelong - Ablett/Chapman/Bartel/Selwood/Johnson/Scarlett (Corey/Ottens/Ling)

Hawthorn - Hodge/Franklin/Roughead/Sewell/Mitchell/Rioli (Lewis/Bateman)

Melbourne - Green/Davey/Sylvia/Bruce/McLean/Moloney

North - Harvey/McIntosh/Simpson/Wells/Rawlings/Petrie (Swallow/Firrito)

Port - Cornes/Cornes/Burgoyne/Cassisi/Boak/Tredrea (Chaplin/Salopek)

Richmond - Richardson/Bowden/Deledio/Foley/Tuck/Tambling (Cousins/Jackson)

St. Kilda - Riewoldt/Hayes/Goddard/Dal Santo/Montagna/Koschitzke (Ball/Gilbert)

Sydney - Goodes/Kirk/O’Keefe/J. Bolton/McVeigh/Jolly (C. Bolton/Shaw)

W/Coast - Cox/Kerr/Priddis/Embley/Lynch/Selwood (Wirrpanda/Stenglein)

Bulldogs - Cooney/Cross/Lake/Murphy/Boyd/Higgins (Johnson/Giansiracusa)

Some of those 'top 6' are ageing, some in their prime, some still on the j-curve, and some all three.

As at the end of round 14 the AFL ladder is as follows:

Saints

Cats

Dogs

Pies

Crows

Lions

Blues

Bombers

--------

Power

Swans

Hawks

Eagles

Roos

Tigers

Dockers

Dees

Other than Hawthorn, would there be much change to a ladder of ‘top 6’ quality ? Hawthorn are the odd ones out due to the vagaries of injury, a late preseason, players having operations too late last year, being the hunted, etc, but overall Cameron was right. If you asses the quality of all club’s ‘top 6’ players you’ll find that it won’t be far off mirroring the league ladder.

It’s another reason why a PP is a must at year’s end. Scully just isn’t enough. We need quality and then some. With Grimes, Watts, Morton, Garland, etc, the talent is coming through, but it can’t come quickly enough. And much more is needed.

This is my order of the teams ‘top 6’ ladder:

Cats/Saints

Hawks

Pies/Dogs

Lions/Crows/Port

Swans/Blues/Bombers

The rest

How far off the current ladder ?

So when supporters try and predict our rise up the ladder keep in mind how far behind we’re coming from. For example, when our ‘top 6’ is finally ‘Watts, Scully, Grimes, Garland, Morton, and Blease’ then we’ll be well on our way to sustained success. It’s some time away, as most realize. And yes, there are 40 players on a list and it’s not just about your best players but building a great team through quality depth. The point remains though; it’s stars that win flags. Just look at the ladder.

NB: Melbourne was just about the hardest ‘top 6’ to assess. I can understand why supporters that aren’t overly enamoured with Moloney, Bruce, or McLean would say “they’re not in our top 6”, but their present value to the team suggests otherwise. But before supporters lose the point and start saying “what about Rivers, or player X”, just remember we’re crud for a reason and have little top end quality at all. So by all means insert the player you feel should be in our top 6 as it won’t change our position one iota on the ladder of ‘top 6 best’.

Interesting post.

I'd distinguish between our top six as of this year, and project to say two years time. Then look at the next six.

I'd also define top six as bot only skilled players, but those who will make the difference to losing and winning a grand final. In other word those players who have something special which oher team would find extremely difficult to handle come grand final day

As of today based on current form and proven capabilities, I believe our top six would be:

JamesMac, Sylvia, Jamar, Jurrah, Grimes, Davey

Next six currently:

Frawley, Petterd, Green, Bruce, Morton, Maloney

But in two years time it will be very different. I predict it will be (based on those who will make the difference on flag day in 2014)

Top six: Watts, Trengove, Davey, Jurrah, Scully, Gawn

Next six: Jamar, Grimes, Sylvia, Morton, Petterd, Frawley

Thoughts?

[Geddy Lee 582]

Interesting post.

I'd distinguish between our top six as of this year, and project to say two years time. Then look at the next six.

I'd also define top six as bot only skilled players, but those who will make the difference to losing and winning a grand final. In other word those players who have something special which oher team would find extremely difficult to handle come grand final day

As of today based on current form and proven capabilities, I believe our top six would be:

JamesMac, Sylvia, Jamar, Jurrah, Grimes, Davey

Next six currently:

Frawley, Petterd, Green, Bruce, Morton, Maloney

But in two years time it will be very different. I predict it will be (based on those who will make the difference on flag day in 2014)

Top six: Watts, Trengove, Davey, Jurrah, Scully, Gawn

Next six: Jamar, Grimes, Sylvia, Morton, Petterd, Frawley

Thoughts?

Today's 'next 6': Warnock over Moloney, Bruce, Ricky.

Also I'll be staggered if Gawn is good in 2 years time, look at the Russian and Sandilands. Took 5-7 years to unleash their fury.

I think Aaron Davey is our best player by so far it isn't funny, so I am glad he is in both yours.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Today's 'next 6': Warnock over Moloney, Bruce, Ricky.

Also I'll be staggered if Gawn is good in 2 years time, look at the Russian and Sandilands. Took 5-7 years to unleash their fury.

I think Aaron Davey is our best player by so far it isn't funny, so I am glad he is in both yours.

Until Watts plays AFL he is not in my top six but I understand his importance. He should be there after he establishes himself as an AFL regular. Agree on GAWN too!

I would not have Junior in there either. Important but that importance fades as he approaches retirement at the end of this year.

My top six:

Grimes- Mature, solid, dependable with great skills and awareness. Hopefully generate a number of meaningful counterattacks for 10 years + for MFC

Frawley- Watching him this year reminds me of a young Gary Hardeman. Probably the most exciting key defensive player I have seen at MFC for years. Will hurt teams both defensively with strength and judgement and offensively with his pace and attack.

Jamar-It all starts in the centre. And our good performances against the Woods and Adelaide have been triggered by the ruck and bullocking work of Jamar. Hope he keeps his fitness because he is light years ahead of his nearest contender Spencer for the ruck role.

Davey- Greater maturity and exquisite ball use can really hurt the opposition. Question mark about ability when giong gets tough or in September.

Trengove- Already at AFL pace after 3 games. Scary how good this guy could become.

Scully- Finding his way in his 1st year of AFL footy. Another star in the making with a big engine

Next top six

Jurrah- Could be anything as an AFL footballer with his inate skills. Hard to match off and unpredictable in the use of his skills. Come back soon.

Sylvia- Body is rigt. Minds getting there. Its now time for a strong impact player to influence games. Ability to slot 60m goals should not be overlooked

Morton- Silky skills with great aerobic capacity and football nous. Hard match up whether midfield and forward. Been sadly missed

Garland- Beautiful skills and judgement with good pace. Can play tall and small effectively. A read find.

Warnock- Plays the unseen stopper role. Important underrated cog in the line up.

McKenzie- When Jmac retires, McKenzies ability to contest tackle and use the ball well will be vital.

This will vary over time but I think the importance of our younger players and development is starting to show through.

[H_T 3,049]

I pinned this topic. Mainly because I think it's important and a good reference of discussion.

Hope that's ok.