Footy tipping software

[M_9 1,793]

I've been running an on-line comp for the last 3 years and I'm toying with the idea of putting out in the marketplace next year.

It's a bit different from your usual comp in that the teams are weighted. I've offered a free copy to Demonland to run next year.

It's the same software as is used for this board, so it shouldn't be hard for them to configure.

Management takes about 10 minutes per week.

My weightings for round 22 are

Fremantle 70 v Collingwood 30

North Melbourne 30 v Port Adelaide 70

Geelong 10 v West Coast 90

Adelaide 50 v Western Bulldogs 50

Carlton 70 v Hawthorn 30

Sydney 60 v Brisbane Lions 40

Melbourne 80 v Richmond 20

Essendon 80 v St Kilda 20

So for example, if you pick the Dees and we get up you get 80 points

As well as your 8 selections you have to pick a certain winner (double points) and an upset (1.5 points)

I'd appreciate it if a few Demonlanders could take 5 minutes to register and tip.

I've disabled the activation link so any email address will do.

Have a go. You may have probs if you're using IE6.

Click here

I'd appreciate it if you could PM me with any problems (or post here)

Cheers, M9

[Nasher 33,166]

M_9 brought this to us last year, but we (read: I) never managed to get the promotions off the ground. It seems like a great concept.

[deanox 8,780]

looks good. perhaps the picking page could be a bit more detailed ie game venue/date/time...

[Rogue 585]

Sounds interesting.

How do you work out the weightings? Manually? Based on the betting markets? Are they static (fixed)?

[M_9 1,793]

Thanks for the tip Deanox. I'll definitely add that, probably as a pop-up window.

Re the weightings - I just pluck the numbers out of my head!

I've been running the program for 3 years on my local club site (http://www.torquaytigers.com.au) and it's been really well accepted by the few who've bothered to enter (14 this year). Last year a Demonlander picked up $60 for second place. My Dees mate DemonRay will collect $100 this year for first (unless he falls over this round).

I reckon someone will sponsor it if it runs on Demonland next year.

Re the weights. As I have to put the matches up Monday morning there's a fair bit of guess work involved (injuries, tribunal etc).

You could leave it until later in the week, but I don't think it's a big deal. You can go in steps of 5 eg Geelong 5 West Coast 95

Sometimes I adjust the weights with the idea of someone being able to catch up by picking the upset correctly.

I had the Dees as an upset when we beat Freo and got a total of 460 points that week.

I'll publish the stats for this season on my site next week - High score, Low Score, Median etc.

DemonRay leads but I don't think he's won a round this year.

[M_9 1,793]

Essentially the weights are static. You can adjust them but it's a matter of accessing the database, and probably more fiddly than it's worth.

I may look at adding an option for the Admin (you might need to help me with a bit of SQL Nasher )

[deanox 8,780]

Essentially the weights are static. You can adjust them but it's a matter of accessing the database, and probably more fiddly than it's worth.

I may look at adding an option for the Admin (you might need to help me with a bit of SQL Nasher )

RE the weights, what if you made the weights based on the ladder positioning and perhaps add a home ground factor? it might not be the fairest weighting but it would give you a consistent spread across the round and the season, and take out the effect of tribunal, injuries etc, allow you to get it up sunday night, and ensure that it is not arbitrary based on your decision.

perhaps you could rank the 16 teams as 16-1 then make the ranking a factor of the points difference between the teams. if it involves a team playing at home at a advantageous venue (ie geelong in geelong, WC in perth) that teams points value could be say doubled (or perhaps increased by a constant ie 5, to ensure that geelong on top isnt worth 32, compared to geelong on bottom worth 2). melbourne teams at home to interstate sides could get the same advantage.

[M_9 1,793]

RE the weights, what if you made the weights based on the ladder positioning and perhaps add a home ground factor? it might not be the fairest weighting but it would give you a consistent spread across the round and the season, and take out the effect of tribunal, injuries etc, allow you to get it up sunday night, and ensure that it is not arbitrary based on your decision.

perhaps you could rank the 16 teams as 16-1 then make the ranking a factor of the points difference between the teams. if it involves a team playing at home at a advantageous venue (ie geelong in geelong, WC in perth) that teams points value could be say doubled (or perhaps increased by a constant ie 5, to ensure that geelong on top isnt worth 32, compared to geelong on bottom worth 2). melbourne teams at home to interstate sides could get the same advantage.

Geez. You're making it complicated!

If Demonland choose to run with it next year you may be the person to frame the weights?!

There's just so many factors involved with AFL (coin toss re wind advantage, team make-up that you don't know about until the last minute).

I'd be interested to know your weights for this round. Sydney v Brisbane one of the harder ones.

[H_T 2,941]

It's a good concept, I'd be interested. Deanox suggestion of rankings is good.

Another suggestion could be to use initial Sportsbet HEAD to HEAD odds to help you with the weightings.

Ie. Geelong $1.01 West Coast $12

10.1pts : 120 pts

Essendon $5.75 StKilda $1.12

57.5pts : 11.2pts

Adelaide $1.75 Bulldogs $2

17.5 pts: 20pts

[M_9 1,793]

It's a good concept, I'd be interested. Deanox suggestion of rankings is good.

Another suggestion could be to use initial Sportsbet HEAD to HEAD odds to help you with the weightings.

Ie. Geelong $1.01 West Coast $12

10.1pts : 120 pts

Essendon $5.75 StKilda $1.12

57.5pts : 11.2pts

Adelaide $1.75 Bulldogs $2

17.5 pts: 20pts

I like to get the games up early in the week - Sunday night or Monday morning when I enter results. When do Sportsbet odds come out? Also the two weights must total 100 and go in steps of 5 so maybe Geelog 5 West Coast 95, Essendon 85 St Kilda 15 etc

[deanox 8,780]

Geez. You're making it complicated!

If Demonland choose to run with it next year you may be the person to frame the weights?!

There's just so many factors involved with AFL (coin toss re wind advantage, team make-up that you don't know about until the last minute).

I'd be interested to know your weights for this round. Sydney v Brisbane one of the harder ones.

haha sorry if im suggesting too much, but i think most people would rather a system that follows some sort of set rules than a random allocation of weightings. when you consider how many different combinations of tips everyone submits each week, it makes sense that the weightings should follow an equation or formula, rather than being a personal opinion of the 'tipping master'.

and as you said, weights would also change throughout the week as injuries, tribunal and other information is made.

i agree with high tower, either make up a formula for the weightings or use the initial head to head offered by sportsbet. or if your software can handle it, link the weightings to a constant up date from sportsbet so that voters get the weightings in real time. although i dont think that is worth the effort! lol

i like the idea, and i think demonlanders in general would be happy to beta test it for you, i know i would.

[deanox 8,780]

I like to get the games up early in the week - Sunday night or Monday morning when I enter results. When do Sportsbet odds come out? Also the two weights must total 100 and go in steps of 5 so maybe Geelog 5 West Coast 95, Essendon 85 St Kilda 15 etc

why do they have to total 100?

and it cant be too hard to make a program that will factor the values out to a total of 100 anyway.

[H_T 2,941]

I like to get the games up early in the week - Sunday night or Monday morning when I enter results. When do Sportsbet odds come out? Also the two weights must total 100 and go in steps of 5 so maybe Geelog 5 West Coast 95, Essendon 85 St Kilda 15 etc

why do they have to total 100?

and it cant be too hard to make a program that will factor the values out to a total of 100 anyway.

This was going to be my question Deanox.

edit: TAB Sportsbet odds are released Thursday I think. Sportsbet maybe the Wednesday - I will look into it...

[ChannellingHopgoodAgro 4]

Alternatively I could look into offering a branded comp using the footytips.com.au service (who I work for).

[Guest Golgothan]

Sportingbet & TAB odds are usually up by Tuesday, but it's usually just head to head. You have to wait until Wednesday or Thursday for the exotics, but if you based it on TAB Head to Head odds and 50-50 being both teams @ $1.85 then it shouldn't be too hard to work out.

[H_T 2,941]

Sportingbet & TAB odds are usually up by Tuesday, but it's usually just head to head. You have to wait until Wednesday or Thursday for the exotics, but if you based it on TAB Head to Head odds and 50-50 being both teams @ $1.85 then it shouldn't be too hard to work out.

Yep.

Ie. Adelaide $1.75 Bulldogs $2

Ratio: - 46.7pts:53.3pts

Essendon $5.75 StKilda $1.12

Ratio: - 83.7pts:16.3pts

Easy.

[Guest Golgothan]

You need to use an exponential to figure it out, find out where the 50-50 mark is ($1.85). The distance between 1.01 and 1.85 needs to be the same as the distance between 1.85 and 12, then it's as easy as finding the point where the value is

[M_9 1,793]

Alternatively I could look into offering a branded comp using the footytips.com.au service (who I work for).

The whole point is that this concept is different because of the amount of movement re the leaderboard from week to week, with punters scoring anywhere from 80 to 400 points.

It's a pretty complex piece of software consisting of a MySQL database (10 tables) plus 17 files with over 3300 lines of code in total (php and HTML).

Trust me, it would be difficult to change the program too much. Odds can always be converted and rounded to the nearest 5 whilst adding to 100.

[Rogue 585]

haha sorry if im suggesting too much, but i think most people would rather a system that follows some sort of set rules than a random allocation of weightings. when you consider how many different combinations of tips everyone submits each week, it makes sense that the weightings should follow an equation or formula, rather than being a personal opinion of the 'tipping master'.

Aye - that's what I was getting at

[H_T 2,941]

You need to use an exponential to figure it out, find out where the 50-50 mark is ($1.85). The distance between 1.01 and 1.85 needs to be the same as the distance between 1.85 and 12, then it's as easy as finding the point where the value is

It's not rocket science. $1.85 is the 50-50 mark.

If you add the two values together ie $1.75 and $2. You work there % each out of $3.75 being the total. Hence 46.7pts if Adelaide wins or 53.3 pts if Bulldogs wins. both points tally 100.

Same with this game: -

Working on % for each out of $6.87 total.

Essendon $5.75 StKilda $1.12

Ratio: - 83.7pts : 16.3pts

Rather than M9 guessing the ratio's of 80:20 for example, you go on "Hd to Hd" odds that have been posted on a Tuesday.

[M_9 1,793]

I'd like to see how others would weight Sydney v Brisbane.

Throw up some figures please people and we'll see how much we vary.

[H_T 2,941]

Ok.

Head to Head

Sydney $1.42 to Brisbane $2.75

Total $4.17

Sydney : Brisbane ratio therefore would be: -

34.1 pts if Sydney is picked and they win : 65.9 pts if you select Brisbane to win and Brisbane wins.

[M_9 1,793]

I'd like to see how others would weight Sydney v Brisbane.

Throw up some figures please people and we'll see how much we vary.

Currently TAB Sportsbet have Sydney $1.42 and Brisbane $2.75 which translates to Sydney 35 Brisbane 65 in my set up.

(and that's markedly different from my Sydney 60 Brisbane 40

I think I was going on Swans shouse performance last week when I posted the weights and forgot that the Lions have nothing to play for (but I still think they;ll win)

[Nasher 33,166]

Aye - that's what I was getting at

It probably wouldn't be too difficult to work out a weighting system based on the recent results, and write an app that updated them accordingly.

[M_9 1,793]

Only 4 Demonlanders had a crack last week. Here are the results

Place User Points

1 itsanightmare 150

2 danny_hughes 120

2 Nasher 120

4 Lucy 105

5 SimonKelly 100

I've posted this weeks matches with the weights aligned to the current market, except for Sydney v Roos which should be 45/55.

Here's the matches:

Hawthorn 35 v Western Bulldogs 65

Adelaide 45 v Collingwood 55

Sydney Swans 50 v North Melbourne 50

Geelong 20 v St Kilda 80

Have a go at picking 4 winners, a certain winner (double points) and an upset winner. It will only take you a few minutes to register and tip.

http://www.myafltips.com/V1/index.php?opti...&Itemid=119