demon-4-life

So...I couldn't help myself, but got stuck into the stats as well. I'm looked at our 2014 comparison to the benchmark (Hawthorn) and how far off the mark we are. I then looked at the additions in players and picked a *rough* 22 and then did another comparison to see where any improvement has come from. Stats looked at were: CP, I50s, Goals, Behinds Best 22* used as the analysis in no particular order: B: McDonald, Dunn, Garland, Grimes, Frost, Lumumba C: Jamar, Jones, Tyson, Vince, Viney, Cross F: Hogan**, Garlett, Watts, Salem***, Howe, Dawes Int: Newton****, Kent, Jetta, Pederson Melbourne as a whole list vs Hawthorn as a whole list in 2014 were: CP: -12.6 I50: -14.9 G: -8.1 B: -2.6 By adding in Frost, Lumumba, Garlett, Newton and Hogan Subtracting Frawley, Bail, M.Jones, JKH and Gawn Using 2014 averages, predicted 2015 differential vs Hawthorn ends up being: CP: -15.2 I50: -15.2 G: -6.9 B: -2.2 Analysis of results: Going on goals and behinds alone, and although its an improvement, it still puts us 2nd last. Now, if we focus on the CP. From 2013 to 2014, we closed in to Hawthorn by 5.9 CP. If we managed to continue this trend down from -12.6 (2014) to say -6.6 (hopefully 2015), this will have us sitting around 10th in the competition. CP is highly correlated to I50s (0.77) and I50s is highly correlated to Goals (0.88). And to state the bleeding obvious, we need to increase our CPs. Conclusion: Again, stating the obvious, I think our fortunes for 2015 rests on our midfielders. We need to bridge the gap of the CPs. If our midfield is able to bridge that gap in CPs we'll see a huge improvement. Our hopes lie with Tyson, Vince, Viney, Cross, Jones, Salem, Newton, M.Jones, Toumpas, Brayshaw, Petracca, Riley. For the statisticians out there, I didn't bother doing a regression or multiple regression, because well, I couldn't be bothered. * Understand this 22 is a bit "top heavy". It is only an indicative. ** Jesse Hogan was assigned: 5.8 CP (best 22 avg), 2 I50s (stab in the dark), 2 Goals (stab in the dark) and 1 behind(stab in the dark). *** Understand that Salem was sub for a lot of the games this year. **** Newton 50/50 on whether he'll be in best 22.

Was watching some highlights of him. Thought he was really good. Then I realised the video was running at normal speed.

Extremely glad we got OMac. But I'd be surprised if he got a game in his first year. Just sayin'.

Anything that gets more footy on tv is better for the game. The stand alone sides might not get as much coverage, but I'm pretty sure they'll get more money from any tv rights.

Reckon Howe is going to step it up this year. Entering his 5th season in the AFL. Another season with Roos. Big season coming up. Calling it now.

Just went through some of the highlights of potential draftees. My view of it. Wright - Could be anything, but too much of a risk. Most of the highlights were him tapping. That being said, 200cm+ players with his mobility are bloody hard to find. Petracca - Big body, shrugs tackles, good peripheral vision. Has that bit of "X" factor and dash. Looks like the kind that can break a game open. Brayshaw - Love him. Good size. The kind of player that fans fall in love with. Nothing "flash", just gets in, does the work and does it well. McCartin - Looks natural. Knows when to lead. Looks to have the smarts. Lever - Wow. Very impressed by him. Athletic as anything. Plays taller than I expected. My ranking of the 5 assuming all were available. Petracca, Lever, Brayshaw, McCartin, Wright. Side note, also watched Billy Stretch highlights. Bloody impressed by him. Reminds me of a mix between Wingard/Wanganeen. Elusive, quick, strong. Struggles to get tackled. Very happy getting him with a 3rd rounder!

Whoa...pick 2? Thats overs. Surely Sam Blease is enough for all of them.

Would I take Josh Kennedy over: 2013 - Josh Kelly/Jack Billings? Too early, but probably. 2012 - O'Rourke/Plowman? YES 2011 - Coniglio/Tyson? Probably not. 2010 - Bennell/Day? YES 2009 - Trengove/Martin? Marginal. Probably not. Martin is very good 2008 - Nic Nat/Stephen Hill? YES 2007 - Cotchin/Masten? Probably not, but JPK def has more impact than Cotchin 2006 - Gumbleton/Hansen - YES 2005 - Daisy/Ellis - YES So, out of the last 9 drafts, 6 out of the 9 are a win, 1 is marginal and 2 are a probably not, but they're close. I'm pretty comfortable with this trade.

Of course I am. He has potential I kid I kid. I do agree Grimes' kicking is quite bad. But well, he's our captain. Nuff said.

Ahh the old "potential" trick. Watts has potential Trengove has potential So did Juice Newton, Cale Morton, Gysberts, Scully, Tapscott, Blease, Strauss, Lucas Cook... Shall I continue?

Just spoke to Paddy. Said, he'll only sign if this thread reaches 150 pages. Wanted to test the true passion of supporters before committing to the club.

And clubs that aren't run like businesses end up with low memberships, low attendances, in debt and unable to pay the full salary cap which then makes the club you support an unsuccessful club. That being said, at least its a loyal club. Just might not exist in the future.

I'm amazed at people not thinking this is part of a bigger deal. Out of curiousity, if this move leads us to our next premiership and a Beams or Dangerfield leads that charge, does that change people's view? Or are we all ok with not winning a premiership in 50 years, as long as we stay a "loyal" club?

WELCOME JEFF!

With the latest Bulldog (Griffen) requesting a trade, it has made me think about how good it has been to have a stable club. In this Jackson/Bartlett/Roos led club, I feel a sense of calm and stability. Its been a long time since there has been: No unwanted leaks of information Such united faith and adulation in our CEO Such united faith and adulation in our board. Clubs that are not Melbourne looking like basket cases. To see players wanting out of clubs like Essendon, Geelong, Collingwood, Doggies and the coaching debacles of Adelaide and Gold Coast, it makes me feel great that we know who our coach/es are for the next 5 years. We've got a core list that is slowly building. A long way to go to get the wins on the board and get within premiership contention, but its just a big sense of satisfaction that our backyard is in good hands.

Only 16 more pages before we land Danger! Make it happen people!

For those thinking Sydney are getting another leg up, lets not forget, we snared a young J.Viney for an absolute bargain as well...

You should have started it off with: "Pop quiz hot shot"

Thank you for your contribution to this club Chip. Wish you all the best and all the success in the future.

Never underestimate what "winning" can do to a mindset/culture.

I count 6. Unless you decided to throw in Ablett just to try and sway your argument.

What? There's no currency in an old, slow, short ruckman who can't jump? Who'd have thought.

Whats Butcher up to these days?

Are you after realistic ones or absolutely silly ones like Dangerfield, Sloane and Tex Walker for Pick 2, Pick 3 and Jimmy Toumpas?

I have every faith in Paul Roos and his strategy. His past record speaks for itself for trades/preseason draft 2005 - Ted Richards (recycled), 2006 - Peter Everitt 2007 - Marty Mattner 2008 - Rhyce Shaw 2009 - Shane Mumford, Ben McGlynn, Josh Kennedy, Daniel Bradshaw 2010 - None 2013 - Viv Miche, Dom Tyson, Bernie Vince, Aiden Riley Of each of those, I would say Daniel Bradshaw wasn't a success and Riley/Michie, the verdict is still out.