Demon Dynasty

The 3 tall forward line only works if they play smart footy by at least one playing high and another leading out wider AND at least 2 are in good marking/goal kicking form. So far no one has stuck their hand up with T-Mac probably the only danger scoreboard wise. Swap a tall for a crumber FCS as per last week! We need run / speed on the outside particularly at the G and instead we have too many plodders spending time through the middle in Hogan, Tyson, Jones, Harmes and a dedicated insider in Clarry (who actually has a bit of toe once he gets outside but rarely does). Petty is a mile off AFL and Smith not much better. Frost has a number of flaws but at least gets to and spoils / intercepts more contests. Goody's not learning from his previous mistakes and his selections after the Pies match have made a slow team through the middle, slower, taking away a potential small crumber in Spargo for Tyson. As a bare minimum Spargo should have been in for Hannan wh's hit rock bottom last few weeks. Will need a huge lift, especially from Petty, Smith, O-Mac (super ordinary so far), Hogan, Jones, Viney, Clarry and Brayshaw (ordinary disposal) if we are to come out of this with the 4 points.

Summary of the 2 teams - Last Round Statistical Comparison Note: The omission of Vince and injection of Petty impacts experience / age average substantially and obviously adds an extra sub 50 gamer and one less in the 150 plus. . No time to alter. This obviously works in favour of the Saints on these stats although i have not altered for the Saints Ins/Outs. Approx guide only. Top 10 Players Last Round Comparison - Score / Rank* * Scores do not account for ruckman's Hit Outs to Advantage. Overall Team Score Comparison (from each team's last encounter) Demons: 55.08^ Saints: 59.97^ Weighted Score Differential: Demons -4.88 ^ includes the Saints/Demon "Ins/Outs" with notional scores for Geary, Joyce & Petty of 2.0 a piece and using Weids' average for the season of 1.513 (excludes hit outs to advantage in resting ruck roles). The Demons played a genuine top 8 side in it's last round vs the Saints only win against as bottom 4 club. The Saints coming off a buy so it's a long time between games to be judging any form now, especially using stats alone. The two glaring aspects of the Saints win against the Suns from public stats....Lack of pressure with only 9 one percenters vs the Demons 43. And clearances.... Demons 54 (against a top 8 rated mid field) vs the Saints 44 (against a bottom 4 team). We bring similar intensity vs Port with pressure on the ball carrier, inside winning the clearances AND provided we are reasonably efficient on the scoreboard and this SHOULD turn into a solid but not spectacular win. Fingers crossed we bring it. Pure Stats Predictor: The Saints by 14 points

I like the subtlety there Tracc. No pressure at all!

I think Spargo plays DZ. I will be stunned if Goody hasn't learned his lesson from last week going in without a crumbing small, which cost us dearly. Pretty sure he will come in for Harmes or Tyson.

Ditto on that....needs to bring some venom and mongrel and hit packs for the marking attempt and belt in to some contests like Reiwoldt. Can be as good or better at some point if he wants it badly enough.

Lingy sweating!?

If Jeffy puts in one decent game (decent pressure also) and Hannan drops off a little from last week, i have a feeling Jeffy will come straight in. Can Jeffy be bothered doing the pressure stuff though? Probably needs to kick 4 to 5 if he isn't pressuring much to get a call up if Hannan mucks (and i'm not wishing this on Hannan....just saying).

Looking like.... Ins: Weids, Pedders (*if T-Mac doesn't pass), Spargo, Petty Outs: T. Smith, T-Mac*, Harmes, Vince

Club needs to improve on who says what and when and also who is allowed into the inner sanctum / 4 walls ... pre-match. What the hell was that nonsense with BT before Friday night's game? He was even looking to sneak in some info off the pre-match white board and the message from the coach. The Pies don't even let him in post match for the roaming BS! The Maxy BS interview just before the match started also. Coach needs to take that mantle. MFC needs to be more ruthless and let the boys fully focus on getting into the finals for the first time in over a decade! Apart from the Captains/Coach on game day and one or two seniors being trolled out during the week...all others should be off limits on game day or weekly press rounds until we win our first final. It's time to impliment the FOF rule... [censored] Off Fugazi!

From what i saw against Coburg and the reports in general from those attending VFL matches MD that is hard to argue against.

I'm can understand your last point MD but Hannan's form has completely dropped away last 4 to 5 rounds. Jeffy not great either but it might have become a bit of a coin flip for the selectors. Wouldn't surprise me.

Weids for T-Mac i think Bingers. Smith more likely to stay but no certainty. Tyson was ok but we needed a small forward. Maybe Spargo / Bugg for Tyson/Smith? (a week too late) Frost has only played 2 matches although for many that might suffice!

Or maybe Spargo / Bugg for Tyson / Smith DC? Go smaller for the extra crumbs / goal potential and speed around half forward. Frost in for Vince could have covered the resting ruck role. Just need to compete and halve the contest when Maxy's resting. Any big body will do for Maxy as long as it's not a top liner.

Jeffy hasn't been in the mix lately de cali. Going in to Friday night's game without a small forward to crumb (and making an already sluggish midfield more pedestrian with Tyson for Spargo) was always going to play into the hands of Port. Allowed them to play an extra medium tall down back and kill the long bombs without a worry when the ball hit the deck. They selected no small defenders and no issue covering us on the outside through the middle either. Too easy ( >Goody"s selections / >Classy speedy outsider needed).

Sounds about right Gorg. Trouble is we have none of the above (at level / form required to acheive what's needed right now). Next year?

Dermy didnt take any prisoners either. While there's no room for Cameron (Dermy!) type incidents in the game, as Derm said... Hulks a big unit he needs to present, crash more packs and put a bit of fear into the defenders pushing back...get the ball to ground for the crumbers if he can't mark. Nothing new for a KPF role and certainly looks very easy from the bleaches. But needs doing. With Viney and now Tyson in the line up (assuming he stays), Hulk certainly doesn't need to be spending as much time in any mid field rotation role either (wasting energy that should be used making multiple leads / crashing packs in the forward line). Not his forte anyway. A bit of time occasionally across half back where needed to assist in icing a game or when trying to control momentum (contested marking / spoiling etc) but that's it. I have no doubts Goody & Co. will be trying to fix the mess (up forward) of the last few weeks, including some of the aweful delivery etc. However, he would probably need to train the crumbing/outside mid fielder mind set out of Hulk also that was useful prior to Viney / Tyson retuning but is now (mostly) redundant. Having an in form dual KPF of T-Mac at FF & Hulk at CHF is critical to our structure & short/medium/long term success. As soon as we move away from this base set up we will lose more often than win against rated opponents IMHO. If we are to make finals Goody will need to fix the above, and fast! No better opportunity than the next 3 weeks.

I get the stats from Footywire and compose them as a weighted average Skuit. Pretty basic and i'm sure any decent stats analyst would probably pick it to bits but after a few tweaks and a bit of reverse engineering (till about round 5 / 6 this year) i let it be as i found it to be a reasonably accurate guide as to how a player is fairing within a match / over the season. As you said there would be a number of biases and a few outliers in there if you weren't bothering to observe the games (always a better option of course!). A good example O-Mac, who tends to play a blanketing role and by design doesn't rack up many cheap stats out the back vs many other defenders. On surface the ranking makes him look ordinary vs other defenders but as we know, in most matches he has done a fine job so far with a couple of exceptions. I sometimes use it as a reminder to what a player might or might not be doing or how he is going vs peers in a similar role. Kind of a flag if you like, then link that up with "Stats Pro" to see if the reality in game is anything like what the composite (or the stats within it) are indicating. A handy reference point if you like as we sometimes forget what we've seen (at least i do anyway). You simply can't take in everything on the day and our vision sometimes blurred by various distractions / biases / beers / flag waving / the war office etc!

It will take a combined effort SW. This is a great test for the club and player to adjust the sails from starboard (crumbing fish role as mentioned) to Port (KPF - shark). If the FD weren't aware of it they certainly will now ? Next 3 weeks is a great opportunity to fix. I think they missed the fact that our delivery was horrid at times. But at other times it was in his area (as per fox video) and on a couple of occasions on the chest also which he missed. My understanding is forwards gain confidence with much that they do by scoring goals. Get him back to doing that and the rest should follow. P.S. Minor point but might have helped his confidence a little if T-Mac handballed to him in the square on Friday night for the goal. Bit risky though.

He would need to BAMF. Zero impact Zero goals last two critical matches. Can't agree more about getting him back to playing a key power position. With Viney back and now we've brought another mid in in Tyson, Hogan spending significant time up the field is simply not required. Our delivery was ordinary at times agreed, but a couple of other times he received lace out on the lead and tried to chest mark it instead of marking in front. Spoiled easily. Goody needs to get him back on track and fast in the next 3 rounds when we /he has the opportunity against lessor rated opponents. Derny's assessment is interesting..... https://www.theroar.com.au/tv/dermott-breretons-scathing-assessment-of-jesse-hogans-performance/

A quick stats form guide looking at the first 8 rounds compared to the last 5 if anyone's interested. There are some surprising and not so surprising movers as well as some big falls from grace. How the hec does Clarry do it!! '+' means no change in rank but an improved score eg.,., Clarry & Jones. Fritchskreig has had quite a month or so! Does the Hibb drop off coincide somewhat with Lever's departure? Hogan off the charts, but unfortunately in the wrong direction. # Missed 3 match minimum for ranking / comparative purposes in this block. * Did not play in first 8 rounds for comparative purposes. Note: Max would rank higher if 'hit outs to advantage' were included in weightings.

He wasnt terrible at all Steve. However, the decision to replace Spargo with him and leave us with no small crumber while adding an unnecessary slow to react and move Tyson to an already sluggish mid field, certainly was. Add a T-Mac likely injury omission (or far from 100% if playing - Nev as well), an out of form Hogan. Smith or Weid having to play a relief ruck role. A mid field that can't hit the barnside of a door inside 50 or manage a goal or more off its own boot, a team that struggles on the expanses of the G, and we are looking decidly shakey. Even against the lowly Saints. Alot needs to go right at the selection table and on the day if we are to have a solid win against an up an about Saints coming off a win and the bye. If it doesn't this could be a an ugly coin flip.

Under higher level pressure from a quality team this is about right OD. We've been found out so many times now. I also worry about teams taking it to us in the physical dept. We lack a few more goers who will fly the flag when the better sides try to bully us off the ball. The Hawks, Pies and to a lessor degree Port, all tried to get the edge on us here. The Hawks in particular seemed to succeed. The one player who stood up on the day and pushed back significantly was Kent, who also had a super first quarter, before fading like most unfortunately. Bugg & Harmes probably the other two goers i can think of off the top of my head. This might come to some with more game time but in reality it's probably more organic than taught. In addition we STILL haven't uncovered a true champion that can take hold of a match for a quarter or more of mad intensity / quality finish and change the momentum our way for a close win against quality opp.

SF aside from Salem / Melk at times and Fritsch probably more consistently, can you name me a player or more (especially another who runs through mid field) who is capable of hitting targets fairly often? Or at least kick it to their favoured / fat side? Some of our entries and work inside 50 by foot was abysmal on Friday night. I think Big M was about the only one i can recall, aside from Jones to Gus (which should have bee paid), who managed to show some poise and foot skills coming inside 50 when he found Smith. Contrast this with T-Mac's set shot goal accuracy. We need our mids to start kicking a few goals also. This bombing business just plays into our opponent's hands and makes us too predictable / easy to defend. Separation of key forwards would help also as we were doing when T-Mac first returned. What the hec happened to the fluidity up forward we were having after the Bulldogs game?

Goody has much to do if we are to make finals, let alone have an impact if we get there. This one of many key issues to address. If Goody does send him to the McGoos i sure hope he has a cunning plan in store! At the moment i'm not sure Tracc even knows what or where he is supposed to be from one quarter to another. Was progressing and tracking fine until bite gate and while not playing or regressing badly, appears to have stalled since. Hogan a major step backwards the last 2 weeks needs to be addressed also.

I'm almost over the whole AFL scene SF. I watched a little of the Norf / Dogs encounter. At one point a Norf player was tackled, went down on a knee while being tackled (broke that tackle...just), then tried another tackler on after running on a little more...disposed the ball incorrectly.... "play on" called. From that direct piece of play the ball then ends up on Norf's 50 arc, bounces off ground into an oncoming Doggy defender's bread basket. He gathers, gets immediately tackled... "holding the ball". I turned the game off at that point and went over to world cup (possibly a replay). Unwatchable.