Demon Dynasty

JKH needs to be played (mostly) in the forward 50 if he is to have any impact IMHO. If we play him off a wing he will likely struggle defensively. Think we could have gone Bugg as another alternative as well but what you gain with forward pressure you lose in finishing in front of goal. Almost the reverse of JKH! Either way, playing JKH (mostly) forward releases Spargo to play a higher role (more of the time vs forward) allowing him to rotate with Melk and possibly Tracc, allowing JKH to play in his more suited position. Knows where the goals are if he can find some space. I have yet to see JKH bring any sort of decent sustained pressure at AFL level when we haven't got the ball and playing him higher up will leave us exposed on the counter. I might well be wrong of course and his defensive side might have improved but for mine he is only dangerous offensively, closer to goals (sub 40 meters or thereabouts). Left mostly in a forward role he just might snag 3 to 4 and be quite damaging IF he can bring form similar to that shown recently at VFL level and up it a notch against the big dawgs. If he goes into coasting mode when we don't have the ball i will spew up! Let's hope he has found a defensive side.

I think if we play Fritschkrieg off one wing and Spargo off the other we should be ok. Jeffy up forward and Frosty down back have some toe also. Need T-Mac, JKH and in particular Hogan and Jeffy to click and fire up forward for the above to work though, including a number of contested marks and plenty of pressure on their defenders to help out our mids and HBs. In addition we need to cover the corridor when we don't have the ball and push them out wide and down the lines on the kick ins. If this isn't working early with the usual zone press Goody has to be willing to go man on man in our forward half and also covering any individual Doggies that have speed through the middle. Effectively a plan B if the zone press is showing early signs of fracturing (this could result from the press getting too skinny or drawn too deep into our forward line, allowing the opp to get the ball out the back...something i feel we have erred with in the past on the wider expanses of the G). If we can't contain the Doggies on their slingshot 'attempts' at the G with this line up we will have learned nothing from the Saints debacle.

I hope so also SW. Can't see him impacting off the wing. Hopefully Spargo to push up as required.

I can't agree more. Just play your most suitable players in their best starting positions. T-Mac starting from the goal square pls.

JKH was very good on the weekend. Would be nice to see the Ins from last week get at least 3 weeks at it though, provided they don't have a mare along the way. Having said that Spargo had 0 contested possessions and only 2 tackles inside 50 so you never know. Spargo might have sailed very close to the wind but i don't think any of the 4 Ins were bad enough to see the FD hit the eject button yet IMO. 50+ point win also and first game back for over 10 weeks for some. Need a few weeks to find their match fitness / pace & the intensity of AFL again (not Spargo i realise...but still a green rookie).

Just my view but has to remain inside 50 or thereabouts DD and probably his best work will be inside 30. Resembles a quick thinking old school rover feeding off packs and getting into space for the opportunist snap or mark/set shot. The outside run further up field might happen as he develops a bigger tank but i think if he returns and is played higher up the field to start with it would be wasted and he'd end up back at Casey in no time.

Didn't do enough for mine DD but the conditions were atrocious. NQR (ready) for the step up just yet IMHO.

I would say 5 weeks....last reasonable game vs Crows. Might get one more go at it with this week a marginal improvement on the horribilis of last week where any improvement might have fooled some into thinking it was a reasonable game. JKH must be close to pushing him out after the Norf match. Hannan was reasonable also but had plenty of chances at senior level. More time needed at Casey to convince surely. ANB hasn't really shown much since the Doggies match either and against the Dockers i think enough has been said already regarding the state of his form. No obvious in form replacement at this point with his two way running capability so i reckon he stays for now. Needs to get more of the pill and improve his finish substantially to avoid the inevitable. Other than Melk and Joel Smith i doubt anyone else will be looked at. The FD will be frustrated with the Joel situation as (like ANB) there really isn't another obvious in form (tall) defender replacement presenting right now who hasn't already been tried. My gut feel is they will leave an unchanged line up vs the Doggies. Melk / Joel potentially on notice on the bench? JKH, Hannan (again), Vince (again) & Tyson named emergencies for encouragement?

Vander's first game back was noteworthy. The conditions might have suited him but the intensity, attack at the contest and effort was first rate. Nice to see he hasn't stopped taking the angry pills also. JKH easily the best finisher and got to the right places on many occasions reading the play well. As long as he's playing a role mostly close to goal I wouldn't mind seeing him given a stint in place of Spargo or Jeffy if the window opens at some point. Would be interesting to see how he handles the step up.

Any stats to back that DC?

6. Gus - no coincidence we win more often with Gus in the starting 3 mids 5. Tracc - played more time through the mid in place of Jones...working 4. Stretch - Solid return and found his 2017 mojo (against weak opp?) 3. Clarry - Choo Choo! 2. Gawn - Cruisin 1. Fritschkrieg - Like a mature red in a young body! SPECIAL! Apologies Viney, Harmes, Lewis & T-Mac

The other fellas must learn from others who are doing more of this Clint. The best, funnily enough is a rookie in FritschKrieg, followed by Brayshaw, Harmes and to a lessor extent Clarry. I say Fritschkrieg as he will allow a player to commit, side step around (breaking tackles also at times), once tackle is missed and player"s passed him he then has space in front to run on and has given himself time and space to find and hit his next target up field. The Tigers are brilliant at doing exactly that and effectively have a stack of Fritschkriegs running around making their opponents over commit, using evading skills with side steps/stiff arms etc and running around them to deliver up field or lateral. Very damaging old school football methods that aren't used by enough players (or who possibly aren't capable of doing so....not as easy as it looks when the pros do it as well as this eh).

12 rookies vs 7 for us. We did what needed doing. Fix the constant bombing and break neck running and bombing inside without looking for and hitting up more options in much better positions to score (on better angles and closer to goal...Lewis, Hogan, Viney & Jones the ones i recall tonight) and we win that by 15 goals

Not a bad return tonight after 10 weeks out. Would like to see him work harder at getting front and square more often though in coming weeks if he is to impact the scoreboard more often IMO. A few opportunities missed in that regard. Hopefully that will come with improved AFL match fitness in the next few weeks.

Jeffy

We do but some of our more experienced dish off too many bullet handballs to players in close. Especially in greasy / slippery conditions. Soft hands? Also lHogan needs to stop handballing to the opposition for the sake of handballing to anyone. Crazy.

Thats how you doit demons. Well done Hoges...fcs do more of that!!

Viney & Jones ...crazy chit from experienced players, especially in the slippery conditions

Hogan wow.... so far off being a good key forward right now

Tracc a solid game tonite. Loving the mid field starting 3 of Tracc, Brayshaw, Viney ..mostly no Jones, Viney & Clarry. Much better Goody

ANB golly ... cant hit a barn let alone a door!

Bomb bomb bomb bomb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb

Summary of the 2 teams - Last Round Statistical Comparison Note: The majority of the Docker's players are rookies (sub 50 games) giving the Demons a significant (in theory) on field advantage (5 less rookies), all things being equal. Top 10 Players Last Round Comparison - Score / Rank* * Scores do not account for ruckman's Hit Outs to Advantage. Team Score Form Comparison (from each team's last encounter allowing for this week's Ins/Outs) Demons: 62.33 Dockers: 54.32 Weighted Score Form Differential: Demons +8.01 Pure Stats Predictor: The Demons by 15 points* *Does not account for potential umpire bias

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Kicking efficiency takes into account clangers (i assume that's what you meant up there) & turnovers D4. It's far from perfect but is the best statistic we have and will ever likely see (as everyday punters). No doubt it has plenty of flaws but there's nothing else more meaningful which is available for us to gobble up at this point. The FD (Craig Jennings) would no doubt be getting their hands on more juicy data! A better indicator statistically is Champion Data's 'hit rating' that is much more robust as to who is kicking better under certain degrees of difficulty and pressure as per the excerpt below .... ....."Champion Data uses a measure called kick rating to assess a player's kicking efficiency (not to be confused with the standard kicking efficiency %) , which takes into account the degree of difficulty of kicks when measuring a player's kicking effectiveness. It assesses the pressure on the kicker along with the kicker's intended target and distance and direction to measure how difficult kicks were and come up with a kick's expected hit rate. The kick rating then shows the player's hit rate minus his expected hit rate to come up with a figure that is plus or minus zero. It is different to kicking efficiency, which measures the percentage of kicks that are merely effective (effectively results in a possession or to advantage outcome for the intended target/team). Trawling through match vision, Champion Data arrives at an ‘Expected Hit Rate’ figure for each type of kick (there are 446 different types of kicks possible from a statistical viewpoint) and the average hit rate a player is expected to attain based on the difficulty of kicks he has attempted. The rating a player receives is the difference between the actual hit rate and expected hit rate. Players are therefore able to receive an overall rating and a rating for types of kicks. A simple example shows how it works. Imagine the kick being measured is a long forward kick to a lead in the attacking midfield under implied pressure. It has been attempted 23 times in the AFL and 10 have hit their target, so the expected hit rate is 10/23 or 43.5 per cent if a player takes this kick once and hits the target, his hit rate would be 100 per cent, which means 100 minus 43.5 would give him a rating of +56.5. Every kick by the player is rated in such a fashion, then divided by the number of kicks to come up with an overall rating. If his kick had missed, he would have started with a -43.5 rating." ....