binman

My best on what might be a good day for favorites is Jaahmeh. Race 1 no 3 Caulfield. In a small field with only one orher realustic chance, red alto, 2.20 is terrific value. Surprised it is not in the red. Though surely will tighten. Could have gone cega magi or redzel but like races with 8 or less runners. Less chance of trouble in running.

Of course he will be. Just as he was when we had all defenders fit for thw first 8 rounds of the season. Sure frosty has been good last couple but not a patch on omac. The coach obviously agrees given last year and this year omac was selected ahead of him. But happy to make an avatar bet. None of his critics took my bet that he would play every game up to round 11. Im happy to bet he wont be dropped next season. He wont be dropped until rhe end of his career.

A terrific season. Still a kid and huge upside. A beautiful (and much underrated) kick as evidenced by the sublime kick to lewis that set up our first goal and the later one to maxy. He is very calm and makes excellent decisions with his disposals. The coach and team mates have complete trust in him. Rarely beaten one on one and has some big scalps this year. He is already strong but but will get much stronger, fill out and possibly still get a touch taller over the next three years. He is already one of the fittest players at the club and will only get fitter. Very durable which speaks to a fella who does everything right to prepare and recover. His key weakness is his pace and really is unlikely to get much quicker. So that will remain an issue but not a deal breaker, particularly with a fit and firing Lever playing alongside him. Like most big fellas won't hit his peak until he is 25, by which time he will have close to 100 games (and a handful of finals) under his belt. As i noted at the beginning of the season will be a 200 plus game player for the dees and a mainstay of our defence for the next decade.

Well yes. But in this instance Jessie's manager and his coach has come out and categorically stated he is staying at the dees. Which never happens when move is on the cards. So it is safe to assume he ain't going nowhere. Super offer or no super offer.

Of course clubs pay overs. Get desperate if that is the word you want to use. But in each of the above scenarios the player chose to leave so they could get more coin. It appears you are making the assumption that if a club makes a huge offer the player will naturally choose to accept it. But there are plenty of examples of plaers knocking back bigger offers. Kelly resigning with GWS is just one example . I'm sure Jessie himself knocked back a much bigger pay check from freo before resigning with the dees as did TMac no doubt. Riddle me this. Why would players knock back much bigger offers? Two reasons come to mind - loyalty and chance of winning a flag. Every example you listed above the clubs involved were an even money chance of winning a flag or better, but certainly no worse. Why on earth would Jessie leave a club that is a very good chance of winning a flag in the next 5 years and go to one that has zero chance of winning a flag in that same period. Players want success. They want to win flags. And even if they are motivated by money success brings coin. Being in losing team in the west for the next 10 years might earn Jessie a good salary in that time but that's it. Winning flags for a Melbourne club will provide opportunities to earn income for the rest of his life.

I think so. Weed was average in that period.

I can absolutely see the dees playing Weed, T Mac and Hogan together in the forward line and fully expect, if all 3 are fit, to see them line up in the forward line round 1 next year. I think they have shown their hand this year. I understand why some might query the wisdom of 3 bigs up forward, particularly with small forward lines being all the rage atm, as i don't think there are many examples of it working but TMac and Hogan are such aerobic beasts that they can get around the ground, offering down the line options, and Weed can play as the classic full forward leading from the square. With Weed and Tmac also providing great chop out duties for Max there would be big chunks of the game where only two of them would actually be in the forward line at the same time. Hogan for me is the CHF, Weed full forward and Tmac the third tall. Huge nightmare for defensive units and opposition coaches as not only do you need height and strength you need players with motors to match Tmac and Hogan. Throw in a team that gets huge inside 50 numbers and hopefully improved delivery of the ball into the forward line and you have a huge offensive weapon. Bring. It. On.

Hello DrD. I can only assume you have not seen this or the other posts directing you to it. Other wise your avatar would be changed already. So once again here is the your new avatar - i look forward to seeing it next to your name: So paging Dr D here is your new avatar (note; please ensure if needing to crop the picture below you get Mark's whole face):

Hello Dr. Please see my last post in this thread.

Hello Dr. Please see my last post in this thread.

Two completely ridiculous threads on DL for the last couple of months. This is one.

I was close to choosing avilus too. But it was too short. Same with grunt. I was close to choosing paret as best but even though i backed it hesitated. Class will out. In hinsight best was theanswermyfriend. Backed ir but really was too short

Sorry fellas on best bet. Wrong choice. Obviously. Cant use my home computer atm as renovating office. So trying to do stuff on phone. Got track bias right. Summer sham wrong. Note to self best bets should always be good horses. Actually had a fantastic day, with 7 winners. Three at mv.

Sorry summer sham is race 5 no 4 at mv. Currently 3.10 on fixed odds

Whoa what a trecherous day. Struggling to find a best bet. Rosehill super tricky with 3vyear olds coming back and soft with rain to come. Playing the valley as leaders track. Best bet a quirky one. Summer sham a place. Will get out in front and be very hard to get past.

Agree largely - except for him being near our best field kick. I reckon he is actually pretty average as filed. kick. When i listed the players who i think are above average kicks (only 12 in total) he was not one of them. Tries too many cute stabby kicks. Hogan is a gun and will be scary over the next few years as he gets stronger. Hawkins is a good comparison i reckon

My best for tomorrow, on what is a great day is Le Romain first up. Deserves a win and dropping back from group 1 class i ti think will get it done. Big weight but huge class edge over the second favourite Siege of Quebec, is unders in my humble.

Have done my form for Caulfield, Randwick and the group race at Morphetville. Really terrific days racing. Quietly confident. Will post my best tomorrow morning when i see how the tracks and odds come up. have posted my best footy bets here

Two stand out bets for mine in the AFL Tigers plus 14.5 Comment: I think the 14.5 line for the tigers is too short. I know tigers are resting players and Bombers are playing for their chance of finals but Tigers are a 6 goal better side and i would have that line at 30 points. Great value. I hasten to add my betting partner has Bombers as one of his best so i won't be betting in this game (unless i can convince him to go unders on TMP of 166.5 - i think it will be scrappy, low scoring game) GWS plus 4.5 Comment: GWS will win this game by 4 goals plus so a line of 4.5 is terrific value

No problemo. I quite like the early race each season as first and second up form is on the whole a pretty reliable indicator. Some just come back better than others i 'weight' first and second up form quite high in my form analysis. That said it is of course not exact and i often get bloused by horses that have rubbish first up form and the trainer has changed something or it runs out of its skin. The other thing about the early races is that some good horses peak early in their prep and fall away. And so you can get ok odds and then avoid the losses at shorter odds. One horse that comes to mind is Black Heart Bart

G'day punters. This weekend is the weekend my mate and i kick off our spring season on the punt. Love the run in from here to when the carnival proper begins. Always some great value and i think the next few weeks in Sydney are great from a punting perspective - particularly if wet as it narrows the chances. I look forward to buying the Winning Post on Friday morning and starting my form on the train into town. Will post my best bets on Saturday morning. I'm not into sports multis so happy for this thread to focus primarily on the ponies. That said happy to offer up my two best footy bets for remainder of the season. I have pretty good strike rate with the footy so if others want me to post my two best i will continue to do so

Very pleased the line in the gws game came in to 12.5. Would have spewed if that big game choker tex cost me me $

My best footy bets: Gold coast v tigers game to be over the Total Match Point (TMP) of 167.5 Comment: will be a low to no pressure game and the tigers will score easily and not be too fussed about giving GC some cheapies. I would set the line at 175 so goo value GWS to make their line of 15.5 v Crows Comment: Crows have nothing left to play for and players will to want to get injured. GWS have everything to play for and need a win to shore up a top 4 spot. Crows also coming off a high pressure derby. Good value Other's to consider if looking for multis (which i don't): Brisbane line of 25.5 looks tempting as they are in pretty good form and i reckon the dogs v bulldogs TMP of 178.5 is too short given there won't be much pressure and the roos to make their line of 22.5 is also good value given the dogs are limping to the line and roos want/need percentage

Total match points, which was 155.5. A bet that in previous years have done pretty well wirh and was my main footy betting option. But very few this season because unlike last few years has been super variable. Though if you had taken unders every game you would be well up.

Fortunately my mate disagreed with my tigers line bet. But agreed with the tmp bet. So a good win.