binman

Whoah that's better. I saw this pic on the phone and thought you were in bondage leather and chains with old wrinkly skin. Not that there;s anythging wrong with that. But now i see it is i assume the artist's chain and arm. By the by i thought our firts year was 1859. Also by the by love the tat

Very tricky day. here's my tips: best bet: gailo chop (good vale too, i think he is an energing stating satr and hrtnell won't catch him) Best value: snitty kitty Long shot/each way: Lord of the SKy Good luck all

Yep. My mate puts our bets on. Hopefully we got best fluc as it came in from 14s

I like him too. I backed him and Royal rapture who is alos good value. Super tricky day, particularly at Flemington and on days like this you can back a couple of horse in some races and still make a good profit (assuming one of them wins!). Have done this a few times today

I was tempted to make my bets bet Mark Zahra in the jockey challenge. Was terrific odds at 2.80. Good start from him with an early double and will be al but impossible to beat from here given the second fav Williams is yet to score point. I backed Clark for the JC in Sydney so whilst i didn;t back Santos 9forgot yout tip 77 - foolish) i was happy he got up as Clark was riding it.

Best bet Randwick Race 4 no 2 Deploy Bets value Randwick Race 8 no 1 Frolic Best longshot (or each way if you prefer) Flemington Race 6 no 5 Rimraam

Indeed. I dont mind the odd exotic much to my mates chagrin as the take out by tge bookies is so high and the long terms return well in their favour

My mate who i bet with is a huge Don Scott fan. Framing the market properly is critical no doubt and perhaps equally important is staking (which of course is related).

An edit/change to the above. Best bets are never going to just the best chance of winning, regardless of odds as sometime a horse that meets that criteria is going to be way to short to bother with, Winx for example. Last week the horse most likely to win anywhere in the country was She Will reign given the class edge and field size. But way too short to bother at $1.20 (unless you want to risk 10k). So my best bet definition would be: Best bet (the horse with the best chance of wining at backable odds - usually something like 1.70 and up in a field of say 8 horses, $2 for fields of 8-12 and $2.50 in fields over 12) Perhaps the bets idea is for each of us to define our best bet according to our own criterion, but we probably should know what that criteria is.

I agree on nominating an each way special. Or more accurately a bets longshot as i tend not to like backing each way. I usually prefer backing for a win for all horses, with my long shots often a saver in a race where i back something shorter. That said i wilI sometimes back a place if i think it is value (some horses, like Downhearted just don't win but often place). The other bet type is best value. Which is a little confusing i guess, in so far it is folly to back any horse that does not represent value (ie is unders) and really getting this aspect right is the key to winning in the long term. But what i mean about best value is a horse that i think is well overs ie over its true odds and therefore represents good value. To be really good value it needs to be over 4-1 or so (if shorter you need to put a sizable bet on to get value). To further confuse things is i guess a best bet could be the one you think is best value. but leaving that point aside how about each week we nominate: Best best (the horse i/you think is the best chance of winning, regardless of odds - logic would suggest that these are usually likely to be short) Best value (the horse is that well overs, in your opinion) Bets longshot (lets say a horse paying over $10) Using that criteria, last week my selections would have been: Best best: Itz Invicible/Gailo Chop Best value: Black Heart bart, before its scratching obviously and Super Cash after Bets long shot: Lord of the Sky

From the above i hard two hard luck stories. Backed Smart Coupe for a place (which i rarely do ie back the pace) but i thought it would lead and prove very hard to run down and thought was terrific value for a place. I also thought Lord of the Sky was chance in the Orr, in part because it is likes to lead but it is also an under rated horse who has a pretty good rating and was way unders. Had a little on the win and more on the place. It loomed up and i though it was with a chance but it obviously peaked on its run. going forward i think Gallo Chop will do well and Merchant Navy will love Flemington

I guess for me it s coupe of things (why i don't factor in time). Habit is one factor. The other is that i am yet to be convinced it is a really useful indicator and i tend to think in recent times it is over relied on. My queries about the usefulness of time as indicator is that that tempo and track bias (and tracks almost always change over a long carnival day) is such a critical part of Australian racing and so few races are truly run. To slightly contradict myself, when i am making my final decisions i do take into account the views of tipsters about closing times and will look at a the last few splits for 1000 - to 1600 metre races but more as something small to factor in. But i get why people like time as a tipping tool and certainly some swear buy it. Which is why sometimes i can't understand why some tipsters pick particular horses ie ones i have rejected because of what i emphasise in my form. With weight as guide i tend to say 1kg is 2 lengths as and each rating point is a length. So a horse at 115 will beat a horse at 111 by four lengths at equal weight (assuming all other factors are equal - which of course they never are!). if the horse rating 111 has two kilos less they will dead heat. I know this differs from mots but it is the guide i use.

Only heard it on the radio and really it was not a great call from Matt Hill. he barely called hartnell until the end and thought my outsider tip Lord of the Sky was a real chance with 100 to go.and didn't run in the top 4! Agree blanket finishes are crap for form. Caulfield is not a great racetrack and it leaders bias is reall issue as luck in running invariably plays way too big a role. On the other hand it does suit some horses and track record can be a good guide, which can help select winners. Never really considered time but definitely consider weight as ratings and weight go hand in hand.

In my form analysis i put a big emphasis on things such as record at the trip, first and second up form, record at the track and record in the relevant conditions . In this my ratings often reflect the Whitway rating in Winning Post as they use similar criteria. Tosen Stardom has an average record at 1400 - after Saturday 0 from 5 and also an average first up record (after Saturday 11–2–2–0), and for that matter not a brilliant Caulfield record (after Saturday 6–1–1–1), which added to my previous comments abut the track favoring leaders (which ironically turned out not to be so correct in the Orr with Hartnell coming late, though haven't watched it yet - was it from far back?) explains why i thought he was way too short. By the by the way i do form is also why i often miss horses that good tipsters select as obviously horse sometimes defy their record across those areas listed above. But no doubt Tosen Stardom can win next up. A terrific horse as is reflected in his ratings. A big change for me in the last few years with doing form is trusting ratings more and now i put a lot of credence in them, particularly in group and listed races (my favourite for ratings is mares set weight races as they often throw up a ratings special). Tosen stardom is at 115 and twice a group 1 winner so it would be folly to not consider him next start. but i suspect he is a big track horse and Fleminbton is his go.

Never in doubt!

Its funny, there always seems to be one or two horses that makes up ground on leaders tracks. Like Seberate (at 15-1) who i backed in the last. I reckon some horse like having 2 or 3 to chase and relax into it. The problem comes lining that form up next time and i reckon many tipsters over rate how good the run was ('made ground against the pattern' blah blah blah). Leaders tracks are a real issue, particularly at Caulfield. Some horse simply don't have chance either because they miss the kick, have poor luck in running or are natural swoopers and don't like racing on speed. The problem for me is i do my form and we put all of our bets on a the start of the day so if i guess it is going to be really leaderish and i'm wrong i'm in trouble. Also by the end of the day it oftens evens up (which i take into account) but not always!

Looks like i'm right that the track is a bit leadrish. I have always thought Punter's Lament would be a great name for a horse. I have had my fist punters lament for the carnival already. Hayes has dome brillinatly with 2 years olds in the filast 2-3 years and i had planned to back his horses in race 2 and 3. Late change of mind say me just do so in the 3rd race and going with Pure elation instead in the second. Annoying to see Enbihaar win at 10s and then my two outsiders get back and have no chance in the next.

Down hearted was another horse i though was way unders. Just not a winner

Shoals i would have to say in Caulfield but Itz invicible is a good thing and in a very small field reasonable value, so lets say Itz invicible I bet with a mate and he does all the actual bets (i can't manage online bookies - too dangerous) and i do the selections and email accross to him. I have cut and pasted above and edited to remove staking.

Some comments about today. I reckon Tosen Stardom i way unders. I think the track will favour front runners as it will be bone dry and leaderish and like last last year will come home but too late. Inside draw no help. Very disappointed Black heart Bart is out as i had him on top and great value. I also think Silent Sedition is too short.

My tips and betting strategy for the day is as follows (with best bets bolded). Caulfield Race 1 no 1 Goldstream win Race 2 no 9 Pure elation win Race 3 no 7 Seberate and no 9 Ben Hucules both win Race 4 no 1 Gailo Chop win Race 5 no 1 Shoals win and place no 6 Smart coupe Race 6 no 2 Super Cash win Race 7 no 10 Scarecrow and box trif 1,2, 10 Race 8 no 10 Tshahitsi and 1 units win & place on no 5 Lord of the Sky Race 9 no 8 Fragonard win and saver on no 12 Barchetta JC Mark Zahra Warwick Farm Race 1 no 1 Satin Slipper Race 3 trifecta in order 3,7,5 for 1 unit Race 4 no 7 O’lordy win Race 5 no 1 Sanctimonius win Race 6 no 1 Single bullet place Race 7 no 4 Bonny Reilly win and quin 2 and 4 Race 9 no 6 Echo effect win JC Blake Shinn Morphettville Race 5 no 1 Itz Invincible win good luck punters!

G'day punters. Sorry don't do mulits. Bookies love them for a reason. I use Winning Post for my form, have done for many years. Unfortunately it now comes out Friday morning (except in selected newsagents) meaning i have to do my form Friday night. It takes me a good 2-3 hours to from properly for both Melbourne and Sydney. I'll do my form tomorrow night/sat morning and post my best on Sat morning

I really like Waterhouse trained horses in Sydney, but more so 1400 meters and above. I love that they are mostly front runners as you always get a good sight and there is no doubt that taken in totality horses that race on speed win more races. I hate backing a horse that gets caught in traffic or cop interference, which is obviously more of a risk for back markers. Front runners also even out the skill difference in jockeys (because jockeys at the front just have to focus on tempo, not weaving through traffic or timing their run), allow a jockey to control race temp and crucially in Spring ensure they are better placed on those days where there is a leaders bias (which seems to be happening more often).

Ta

Happy to have horse racing only thread.