binman

My tips and betting strategy for the day is as follows (with best bets bolded). Caulfield Race 1 no 1 Goldstream win Race 2 no 9 Pure elation win Race 3 no 7 Seberate and no 9 Ben Hucules both win Race 4 no 1 Gailo Chop win Race 5 no 1 Shoals win and place no 6 Smart coupe Race 6 no 2 Super Cash win Race 7 no 10 Scarecrow and box trif 1,2, 10 Race 8 no 10 Tshahitsi and 1 units win & place on no 5 Lord of the Sky Race 9 no 8 Fragonard win and saver on no 12 Barchetta JC Mark Zahra Warwick Farm Race 1 no 1 Satin Slipper Race 3 trifecta in order 3,7,5 for 1 unit Race 4 no 7 O’lordy win Race 5 no 1 Sanctimonius win Race 6 no 1 Single bullet place Race 7 no 4 Bonny Reilly win and quin 2 and 4 Race 9 no 6 Echo effect win JC Blake Shinn Morphettville Race 5 no 1 Itz Invincible win good luck punters!

G'day punters. Sorry don't do mulits. Bookies love them for a reason. I use Winning Post for my form, have done for many years. Unfortunately it now comes out Friday morning (except in selected newsagents) meaning i have to do my form Friday night. It takes me a good 2-3 hours to from properly for both Melbourne and Sydney. I'll do my form tomorrow night/sat morning and post my best on Sat morning

I really like Waterhouse trained horses in Sydney, but more so 1400 meters and above. I love that they are mostly front runners as you always get a good sight and there is no doubt that taken in totality horses that race on speed win more races. I hate backing a horse that gets caught in traffic or cop interference, which is obviously more of a risk for back markers. Front runners also even out the skill difference in jockeys (because jockeys at the front just have to focus on tempo, not weaving through traffic or timing their run), allow a jockey to control race temp and crucially in Spring ensure they are better placed on those days where there is a leaders bias (which seems to be happening more often).

Ta

Happy to have horse racing only thread.

Agree on name change of thread. A few years back i started a punting thread but got no traction so haven't bothered. I saw this one and assumed it was out of date. I love the horses but largely focus on the Autumn and Spring Carnivals. I also like footy betting, the line mainly. Autumn carnival is my favourite carnival. It stretches from aprox next weekend through to Easter, with ours first and then Sydney (and obviously their Autumn carnival is much better than their short Spring Carnival) whereas over Spring they overlap meaning big outlays. Also i find the form is more reliable over Autumn. In Melbourne there are smaller fields than Spring but importantly the form lines are much more reliable and easier to line up, with many horses coming through the same races. Also the consistently firm tracks help and some horses just like this time of year more. In Sydney the wet tracks make picking winners easier as it they knock out half the field. The Spring carnival is a lottery. The odds on futures are tempting but realistically they are always super weighted in the bookies favour given how many horses don't get to their GF. I only ever take them a week or so out, and even then not very often. Actually the only race i really look at for futures is the Blue Diamond. I liked the fight Long leaf has been showing but Olivander also appeals with how it has been running on.

Hoges is just indicating where he is un the pecking order up forward

Love a player with a typo in his name

do you think he will put on size in an AFL environment drunkn? Dec must love the Casey vibe at the club.

no you don't

i know the feeling.

You agree with yourself?

Agree. Leaving aside questions about the weird homo erotic analogies (we've been reamed, bent over again etc etc) the deal is fine. Considering Taylor's record we could well have a smokey earmarked for pick 35 or 3rd round and as we all know outside say the top 12 the draft is a lottery anyway. Many people argued we were bent over with Melk and even Hibberd. Melk is in our best 22 and Hibberd has been a suburb pickup - have we ever recruited a player who got selected in the AA team in their first year with us (or even subsequently?). As you say PD Lever is a perfect fit for our back line and i have no doubt it is the reason we were so keen to land him. Th other thing that has to be factored in is doing the trade early makes our trading a lot simpler now. We know what have in hand and what we can't offer. If the lever trade had held up other deals - which it may well have if not done to say the final day - this would have had unintended consequences and may well have cost us a player we were keen on. Good job Mahoney and crew.

Gary buckenara does a pretty interesting analysis here: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/melbourne/gary-buckenara-analyses-melbournes-list-after-the-2017-season/news-story/08afd8b49dedaf6938358873ff2d5b28 NB: if you care not a subscriber google this and go to the article direct (note their new website won't allow you to cut and paste the text from the summary to google, so you have to mnaully type it): Demons should rethink Watts trade Says this about Lever: 'The Demons are Jake Lever’s preferred new home after he requested a trade out of Adelaide and he’d be a nice addition to the backline as that intercept-marking player, which is so critical in the modern game. He is a third defender, not really a key-position player despite being 195cm. The Crows are asking for two first-round picks in a trade and to me, that’s overs. Melbourne currently has pick No. 10 so I’d offer that and potentially a second-round pick or a young borderline best-22 player such as Alex Neale-Bullen, who is an Adelaide boy, to sweeten the deal.' This comment from the comments section below the article made me laugh: Gavin 7 hours ago Lever is exactly what Melbourne need. Another easily physically intimidated player who fails to stand up in big games.

You have to love Demonland. Lever fails to poll in the top 10 at the crows B&F. There are two contradictory responses: It is clear evidence that the crows must have rigged the voting (out of spite? - must be because it makes little sense to deliberately under value him if you know you are going to negotiate draft picks ) because as we all know Lever is one of their best players, an AA no less (yes, yes, i know) who has had the best season ever for any young defender - better than Rance at the same age! Are the crows crazy asking for two first rounders? My response: I'm going to love watching the live stream of the bluey on Monday and watch Tmac's younger brother come top 10

Neeld didn't. He was about the process.

I think burton might not be the best person to be negotiating deals. I mean aren't most negotiations involving player's contracts financially motivated?

Some counselling for jack

Agree. The free lever 'gave away' right on the q time siren was incredibly soft. Didn't hurt them but geez. Meanwhile Saint Rance gets more protection than a la porchetta franchise

Actually i reckon hunt was tagged a bit in the latter part of the year. Or at least a fair bit of work put into him to stop.his run out of the back half. It worked too as earlier in the season it was one of our major weapons. I supwct his metres gained stats fell off a cliff

Agree. And i have no doubt this why we have targeted him and won't mind paying 'overs' (whatever that means)

Yep. Never a truer word spoken.

Well he better get used to it as he will be tagged next year at the dees. And given that likelihood we should temper our expectations. But so there is no confusion i am not potting Lever. A terrific young player and i'm rapt he will be at the dees.

Of course he will. And he's coming. But as i have pointed out many times about our defence - it will always struggle if we don't match the opposition's pressure just as the crow's much vaunted defence struggled today

And from afl.com (Ben Guthrie) those same players: Luke Brown – 3 Dubbed 'The Glove' by teammates, the small defender was under the pump throughout the afternoon. Out-bodied by Dustin Martin late in the second term in a one-on-one contest that he had no chance of winning. Will learn plenty from it. Kyle Hartigan – 3 Often played as Adelaide's deepest defender and spent some time on Dustin Martin when he went forward. Did not necessarily have a suitable matchup among Richmond's small forward line and often found himself tracking one of Dan Butler or Jason Castagna. Not his go. Jake Kelly – 4 Came off in the second term and appeared to be limited by a hamstring complaint. Got back out onto the ground but was part of a back line that struggled to contain the Tigers' forwards. Was at least strong in the air on a few occasions. Jake Lever – 4 The out-of-contract star took a couple of customary intercept marks in the first half and had Jacob Townsend for company for most of the afternoon. Lever had 15 disposals but, with the ball often on the deck in Richmond's forward line, he could not chop off kicks as effectively as he usually does. Could be his final game for the Crows, with speculation mounting he will join Melbourne in the upcoming trade period. Daniel Talia – 3 The miserly full back has made a reputation for not allowing his opponent to get off the chain. But this was not one of his better days. Opponent Jack Riewoldt was too athletic for Talia and there were a number of times where he trailed the Tigers spearhead into the contest. Rory Laird – 7 The All Australian defender was superb for the Crows across half-back in the first half, gathering 19 disposals. Was allowed the freedom to roam and he flourished. However, Laird couldn't exert the same influence in the second half as the Tigers ran away with victory.