DeeSpencer

He'll be in red and blue. If other clubs were so keen on him they would've been in his ear and he wouldn't have signed the contract. Him signing on is a commitment from us to him and from the other way as well. If other clubs weren't even going to convince him based on cash and opportunity then they won't offer up a good pick either. Carlton have Levi Casboult who is around the same age and development as Fitzy. He doesn't have the speed but he has more size and contested marking ability. When combined with Henderson they actually have a very decent 1 and 2 key forward set up. They are now missing that third tall option who can do some of the leg work and/or play in the midfield. I would think they'd have a lot more interest in Watts than Fitzpatrick, who as we all know hasn't signed on.

Firstly points for trying D2014 but you can't delist Byrnes or Pedersen, they are contracted. But as for our improvement I think it will come because of a number of factors: 1. An experienced coach will provide a confidence boost in the players, you can see Craig already lifted them a notch 2. Increased talent and fitness across the midfield group - we simply can't get any worse here 3. The inclusion of Hogan, return of Clark, another season of Dawes will result in a lift, I feel it's almost impossible to get such a low return out of these 3 as we did from Clark and Dawes this year. To expand on our midfield, this year we've lacked depth and available talent. Here are some of the areas on balance of probability where we can improve - Toumpas having an easy preseason off the back of hip surgery - Viney missing a chunk in the middle of the year - Evans missing the second half of the season - McKenzie and Trengove having injury interruptions late in preseason - Matt Jones only in his first year/preseason - Kent not fully fit when he arrived at the club - Blease doing multiple ankle injuries - Grimes breaking his collar bone (and a decent break at that) - The draft/trade period The overriding factor that good clubs have is depth and pressure for a spot in the team whilst also maintaining a solid line up. Next year I really feel our backline should be looking much better than the start of this year. McDonald has improved as the year went on. Frawley, Garland, Terlich, Clisby showed enough as a group. Pedersen and Dunn as depth. The key forwards have to improve it's a given. The small forward's with midfield ability look much better if Kent improves and we can get Sylvia back to this role. The midfield is the one where it will be hard to be worse. How much better depends on a bit of luck - how well players come on, injuries, top draft picks being ready to play and then some clever trading which I think is imperative.

How exactly do you research or use statistics to measure the strength of opposition? That entire question is illogical. Blind freddy can see that Gibson is Hawthorn's CHB and often plays on the oppositions best or second best key defender where as Dunn played on Schultz in round one and Lindsay Thomas a few weeks back. They are the only real quality opponents I've seen him take. Besides from when he tagged Judd (well) and Ablett (disastrously). By the way a lot of great scientific discoveries have had absolutely nothing to do with research. They get tested with research eventually but the actual discovery has nothing to do with it. Penicillin is the obvious example. A lot of other medical discoveries were made by observations and intuition as well and not research. Actually most common antibiotics used to treat conditions have never been fully tested because you can't create an ethical trial these days. You can't find someone with pneumonia and check whether a standard dose of penicillin will treat it compared to no treatment because it's completely unethical to watch people get sicker without treatment that clearly works. In some ways that's what you'd have to do with Dunn. You'd have to find his replacement and design some nearly impossible trial to work out whether the evidence shows he is better than said player. To get a big enough sample it would have to go over many games, probably seasons, which most Melbourne supporters would find unethical because we'd be watching Dunn spud it up for no reason. AFL teams use statistics to find out trends in the game and to map strengths and weaknesses of certain players. They certain can't use them to provide detailed rankings of players, there are just way to many variables. In essence you are suggesting a moneyball theory of statistics outweighing vision and instinct and it just isn't possible in AFL.

I just saw that as typically bad sub editing. Classic put on a headline/title so people watch even though it has nothing to do with the content.

I don't think he gives us nothing offensively though. Yes he's been poor this year which I think stems from a bad start to the year (where he couldn't train his achilles was that bad and he was rushed back into the team) but when he's on he can win clearances. Against Gold Coast and even against Adelaide he got some contested ball and got us moving. I remember when he first came in to the team and wasn't purely tagging he was getting about 20 touches and some decent clearances as well as laying tackles. Now his lack of skill means he's better suited to tagging but I expect him to develop with the talent around him and make some contribution offensively. I'd even consider changing things up if we are getting smashed in contested ball next week against the dogs and let McKenzie have a free run at winning the footy and move someone else on to Griffen. Sylvia would be my first choice I'd love to get him to tag even just for one game as a learning exercise.

Autocol doesn't need logic, he has stats.

Sometimes he is lose, other times he takes a teams CHF and has historically done a very good job even with a good team around him. Gibson is a good ordinary player in a team with some stars. Dunn is a bad ordinary player in a team with no stars. But that gap between just been part of the side and actually been able to influence a game is a huge and important gap. It's one that Garland bridged this year and one that if we just had a couple of midfielders or small forwards who could elevate to that level then we wouldn't be discussing things like this thread.

I never said you didn't understand statistics, but you are starting to convince me that you don't. What I said is that this particular statistic is misleading in terms of Dunn's value. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-08-02/the-frugal-suspects So that actual statistic is Dunn has only conceded 3 marks or free kicks from 32 contests with a 50-50 ball. Which as the statistics and analytical genius I know you are you will have recognised is too small a sample size to make definitive statistic conclusions. As I mentioned there are a number of reasons I believe this is to be the case: 1. He's on lesser opponents and often has a height advantage over them 2. He's so far off the play it's not a 50/50 contest There are also reasons why despite the stat I still think he's a very ordinary footballer 1. His decision making is rubbish and disposal is shaky 2. The fake tough guy act when he really isn't hard at it 3. He rarely racks up stats for a rebounding defender with plenty of inside 50's to do so 4. He doesn't take nearly enough intercept marks or help out his other defenders 5. The stat says nothing of what happens after he's brought the ball to ground. And by the way I wouldn't delist Dunn. He is a near AFL quality player with some position versatility and has a good injury record. But I'd be mighty glad to see us winning games and if we do get to the stage of consistent wins I don't think Dunn would be in that team. As for your first line there full of mumbo jumbo - it reads like a Schwab sentence from Whiteboard Wednesday, and how did that turn out.

Hasn't been going too badly in the VFL since he left us. And we haven't exactly got better without him. Not to mention West didn't have the team success that Bolton did and isn't as good a communicator as Bolton in terms of media, not sure about coaching as they are different things. The way I see it our incumbent coaches can't be much chop. I see no reason not suggest getting some quality players, especially ones who played the right way like Bolton did.

Then the stats have fooled you. He's good in a one on one because he's often playing on small forwards who he has a height advantage on or the worst talls when Frawley/McDonald etc take the good ones. Not to mention he gets burnt on the lead or lost in traffic which doesn't go against him for that stat.

Yes and no. It's these little things and others like manning the mark properly that will instantly make us a better side. We were out played by Adelaide for most of the game on Saturday but at one stage in the last quarter it was 51 to 74 before we did our customary complete give up. Fix all the little things and we may well have been right in the game in the last quarter and who knows what might have happened after that. It's a huge problem in this team that they aren't only poorly skilled or under manned they are also completely ill disciplined and dumb. Spencer will be a half decent back up ruck if he only improved some little things regardless of whether he ever learns to mark or kick. And he's one of the guys who actually tries most weeks for some parts of games.

I've got no problem with someone acting tough but it will only impress me if they actually are tough. I'd rather a sniper like Campbell Brown because at least when its his turn to go you know he will. Same can't be said for Dunn. So in the mean time he should focus on actually playing football.

You didn't watch the game on Saturday where he gave away a goal for it. His niggle never puts the opposition off, it's just for his own inflated ego and is crap. He shouldn't waste energy and time when he clearly needs it to actually play football.

Apparently set to announce tomorrow that this will be his last year. Certainly if Roos comes and regardless I think he'd be perfect as a junior assistant coach helping out with either forwards or mids because he's played both positions.. Lots of experience and played the right way. We've already had Ling mentioned and Hayes (who will now play on for one more season) but Bolton would be another name for that list.

Hearty? Dunn's main problems are his brain and heart. Not sure I've ever seen him play a complete game with full effort and clear decision making. Usually one of the two are missing.

No but he's symptomatic. Here's a guy who's played FF, CHF, defensive flanker, tagger, wing, half back ball user, 3rd tall defender, back pocket and never cemented a spot with consistent football. He's actually been consistent for most of this year but at a very low level. It's also a surprise that he still is a guy who you have no confidence with ball in hand. You'd expect him by now to have established a tempo to what he does by foot. Ie. is he a take the game on guy who makes a few mistake but you put up with it because he sets up important play and generally makes attacking decisions (Terlich) or is he a steady and safe disciplined type like Garland who will choose a correct option or if in doubt go long to advantage. I think a new coach would leave him where he is position wise and hope you can develop better players to force him out of the side which shouldn't be too hard. I'd say a 188-192cm defender with proper skills and decision making would still be high on the list. 2 Garland's and no Dunn's would be lovely!

We'd get a lot more inside 50's with a second target besides Dawes who can actually present on the lead as well as another forward who can effectively apply forward pressure. Sure the midfield is rubbish but the forward create a lot of problems for themselves!

Same with when he ran through the middle of the ground yesterday, went to play on then got caught because he didn't back his first instinct. Everyone keeps saying drop him to the 2's to help build confidence, when clearly he dominates VFL and just needs time in AFL under the right coaching and mentality and it will come together for him. If we were actually winning games his decent performances and any flaws would just go without comment and we'd all be happy.

Need at least 11-12 mids per game. (Plus 5 defenders, 1 ruck, 1 ruck/forward, 2 key forwards, 1-2 designated small/medium forwards) Starting inside mids: Nathan Jones, Viney, Mckenzie (tagger) Starting outside mids: Toumpas, Evans Forward/mids: Kent, Howe, Sylvia Half back mid: Grimes Bench mid with flexibility: Trengove Sub: Blease (barely rate) Back up inside mids: ??? Back up outside: Matt Jones, Barry (wont be nearly fully ready by next year I'm confident) Other possibilities - Taggert, draft picks/mature age additions Don't rate: Tynan, Nicholson, Magner, Couch, Bail, Tapscott, Rodan, Byrnes as a mid So I think the best 11 isn't the worlds worst but the problem is we just don't have any real depth. Kent, Toumpas and Howe are inexperienced as midfielders as is Evans really. Trengove can barely get a kick and any list with Sam Blease is a shocker. Viney is carrying too much load. So we look again to next years draft and we replace guys like Rodan, Magner and some proper depth who we believe in. Then maybe Sylvia can spend time forward because he isn't a legitimate mid. The number 2 draft pick can rotate between AFL/VFL with guys like Toumpas, Kent and Evans either holding their spot or at least keeping said draft picks honest. I'd say you add an experienced player from AFL/VFL but get it right this time, a trade for a ready to go like a Taylor Adams and our top picks are classy and ready then I might be optimistic. There's not enough to be optimistic about yet. Even if we do develop what we have now for next year it's not enough at the moment

Well to go with some young hard nuts as well it could be worth a shot. The way I see it we've got potential in Garland, Frawley, Dawes, McDonald, Nath Jones, Trengove, Grimes, Mitch Clark etc that if we get the culture right now it might work. The problem was Neitz, Yze and White weren't really great leaders and that spilt down to Green, Bruce and Robertson and then on to Sylvia, Moloney and Davey. The MFC generation of players lost years may well just carry on if all of a sudden people start saying Nath Jones, Garland, Grimes and Frawley don't really care and are soft and then it will be 2020 and everyone will be saying that Jack Viney is unproffessional and soft as well (not at the ball but in terms of effort). There's too many list spaces to fill that bringing in 1 more experienced and reliable veteran isn't a bad idea.

Tom "I can sum up my Port career in one second' Harley, then continues to describe his Geelong career for most of the next broad cast. Complete [censored]. And if Baz is the best commentator in Perth can you imagine the worst?

Garland McKenzie tried but probably failed Toumpas points for actually attempting to get out in space at times Can't think of any other demon who really beat their opponent Grimes showed me what he could do back at half back with some weights, skill training and a bunch of confidence. Finds the footy and mops up with ease just has no strength to break a tackle or conviction to trust his options.

Hamish McGlachlan has an Adelaide link doesn't he, besides that it was Baz Zemplis was it not and who knows who the special comments clowns were but either way I don't think they were from SA. My point is it wasn't SA pump up SA it was channel 7 who are so stupid they actually think its fitting to celebrate like crazy how good a stadium is when it's about to be decommissioned from AFL. They also didn't realise Port play a huge game there next week! They also got stuck into Watts for his trade mark goal celebration where he points and claps the guy who set the goal up for him. There are 100 bad things you can get stuck into Watts for yet they pick a good thing! Edit: Actually it was Tom Harley, ex SA, ex Geelong, now in Sydney. Obvious a bloke who has no idea what a real city is and has managed to avoid Melbourne - which is probably a good thing for the rest of us!

I haven't seen much but I would point out the obvious in that today there were more Casey players than probably the rest of the season. Very unfortunate for Casey though that Hogan, Byrnes, Strauss, Fitzpatrick and Blease all got injured last week. To lose by 2 points when just any one of those 5 (or the 3 who got promoted to AFL in their place in Rodan, Toumpas, Frawley and Pedersen) would've been enough to get the job done. Nothing beats bad luck.

Well football isn't going so well for Watts. And his lack of intensity and effort must be contributed to by a fear of getting hurt. The 2 go together commonly. If we aren't going to drop Watts we may as well change the dynamic that he plays in.