DeeSpencer

After the first round I believe the discount becomes 197 draft points So pick 54 can match any pick up to 41 straight up. Adding in pick 61 allows up to match any pick up until 34. Sydney have 26, 33, 38, 39, 40 most of which will be swallowed up by 1 player. North have 42, 47, 48, 49 and 58 most of which will be used on 2 players. Collingwood have 41, 44, 57, 59 and 60 to use on 2 players. Pick 54 and 62 will likely end up as something like pick 48 and 53. When added to a discount that's enough to match pick 26

I agree. So it makes me wonder if we'd do something like: Out: 2019 1st round pick + pick 28 In: Adelaide's pick 16 + Adelaide's 2019 2nd round pick Effectively trading to get our own first round pick back. Given the Crows have 8, 13 and 21 they might have got the 2 kids they really want with the first two picks and be happy to slide back from 16 to 28 for a potentially very nice upgrade next year if they improve and we regress. Port and GWS could do entertain a similar trade. GWS in particular might be keen to move out of a pick around that mark to avoid Adelaide's potential bid for their academy ruckman. From the history of NFL drafts which are somewhat similar to AFL drafts trading up usually costs a heavy price and I don't recommend it. To get a pick 15 you have to pay pick 10's worth of value and then you hope you're drafting a guy who's rated almost top 5 to make that happen. Throwing in a first round pick ups that gamble even more. I'm not sure it should be us but I hope someone rolls the dice and makes some live trades on draft night!

Great work @Demonland

Blakey (8), Thomas (13), Quaynor (14) and West (20) means those guys are 3 or 4 spots away in draft order from our pick 23. Stocker is interesting. Lack of break away speed and average endurance isn't an ideal list fit but he looks a lovely kick on both sides. He reminds me a bit of Angus Brayshaw with the way he moves in traffic and uses both sides, seems to hit his targets more than Gussy. Won the Morrish Medal in a similar run of votes to Gus placing in the Brownlow. If he becomes a lovely kick on both sides at AFL level then he'd be able to play half forward or half back as well as the midfield.

The AFL love two things more than pretty much anything else (aside from cash): 1. Poorly thought out rules 2. Acronyms/Initialism And now with the pre-season supplement selection period which they've dubbed the SPP they have both. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-15/new-rookie-rules-clarke-mumford-free-to-join-club-of-choice Any player who has been delisted or previously been through a National Draft can now be signed as a rookie from December until March as long as teams have an open spot. That's fair enough for Mumford and Clark, guys who have previous retired or being delisted and have played for years. It makes less sense for 19 year olds over looked in last years draft who should now enter this years draft, but as far as I can tell there's no rule stopping them Luke Foley from WA might be the best of the 19 year olds this year and a draft pick in the 20-40 range. I propose we get on the phone ASAP and advise him to pull out of the draft. We'll rookie him in December and promise him a hefty pay rise in a year or two. In a more likely scenario it also means for someone like Jay Lockhart or another mature age player we might fancy we can advise them to withdraw from the draft and sign with us in December.

Agree with most of that. Ely Smith seems a man amongst boys, has he played against men like Clarry did? McHenry looks like a scrappy school kid, hard to bring that to AFL level unless you're Toby Greene. Worse case scenario for Riley CD is he plays 100 games on a back flank but whether he's a gun midfielder is up for debate. Williams is risky as all talls are, agree I'd rather get a running player first unless there's belief he'd make a standout ruck down the track. McKenzie looks a solid no fuss wing/half back, ideally another for the 2nd pick or later. Butters is smooth as butter, he'll be gone. Zac Foot is one I'd really like. Reminds me of Rory Atkins who is one of my favourite players to watch when he's on. I think he's a later round prospect with class and footy smarts. Good endurance. I wouldn't be upset if we got him in the 2nd round.

Removing the elite 8 and the 5 academy/father son prospects - Blakely, Thomas, West, Quaynor and Scott. Also taking out Jones and Clark, too much top 10 buzz for them to last. 10. Luke Valente 13. Jackson Hately 14. Xavier Duursma 16. Sam Sturt 17. Xavier O’Halloran 18. Zak Butters 21. Ely Smith 23. Ian Hill 24. Bailey Williams 25. Ned McHenry 26. Liam Stocker 27. Jez McLennan 28. Curtis Taylor 29. Luke Foley 30. Riley Collier-Dawkins Worse case scenario 12 of these guys are gone by our pick. My guess is Hately, Sturt, Butters, Hill, Stocker and RCD are off the board. Same kind of names - Smith, Williams, McHenry, Taylor around the mark for our first pick.

I think we should have a look at Tom Berry, Jarrod's younger brother. For anyone who didn't watch much of Brisbane this year I'm very confident Jarrod Berry is a star in the making, as well as a captain in the making. Really good all round player capable of playing pretty much anywhere on the ground. Tom isn't as tall but has similar characteristics. If we're looking for versatile midfield depth then I'd be looking at Tom.

Judging from highlights videos can be fraught with danger but one look at this guys clips and I think he'll be way gone by the time our first pick comes around. Really good overhead, quick reflexes and a lovely kick. I doubt he makes it out of the teens yet alone to where our first pick will be.

Fair enough to say his form the last couple of years has been uninspiring and he's battled a lot of injuries but it's pretty clear what we think he has to offer isn't it? He has a lovely penetrating left foot kick, is a natural outside runner and has good size. We traded Tyson, Lewis is just about done and so is Jones. Adding a running player with a lovely kick to play wing or half back was a pretty obvious move.

Starting to see similar names matched to our first pick - McHenry, Williams, Ely Smith, O'Halloran. Yet to really fall in love with anyone tipped to go to us but there's some handy prospects.

From limited viewing I agree. Looks like the kind of player who usually drifts out to 30+, gets talked up in the media due to leadership and good performance. That said, it's often a fine line between the Jack Graham and Worpel types and the Mathieson/Dunstan types who aren't quick or skilled enough.

Falcons, Pats, Chargers. For the betting folk out there I think the Seahawks are too good to start with a 10.5 advantage

No I haven't. But I'm very suspicious of the idea that an 18 year old shouldn't eat until after 2pm. I get the point of fasted cardio before school, but what's wrong with breakfast at 8:30 before class, lunch at lunch time and dinner at dinner time!

Free agents are locked in to the cap due to the compensation and other factors. I raised that because you raised Buddy. Buddy's contract is locked in to the salary cap for the full length of the deal. See here: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/hawthorn/ty-vickery-salary-to-be-included-in-hawthorns-2018-cap-despite-retirement/news-story/56fc77cb474a66e7723c01df151ae8b8 The veterans list is completely outdated. Forget about that. Tippett had a dodgy ankle, didn't want to do the rehab, reached an agreement with the Swans to retire for a settled pay out instead of staying on the list in 18/19/20 and cashing his payment without ever playing. That's all fair and above board. The only saving for the Swans is the 80k that they would've spent on another rookie but now save by keeping Tippett on the rookie list using a spot. Mutually agreeing with a player for them to retire and then paying them out with a rookie spot is no advantage at all. Sydney and Hawthorn have done it because they have tight salary caps not as a form of getting around the cap. The Crows have done it as well. Other teams with more cap room have put retirement payments in to earlier years and saved a list spot.

1. Free agent money apparently is locked in to the cap. So I wouldn't be certain it will happen with Buddy. 2. Tippett wasn't a free agent. Bizarre circumstances meant he was a drafted player and wasn't even still on his initial Swans contract 3. They are using a list spot and paying money for a player who has retired due to injury. How exactly does that help them? The only salary cap saving they are getting is the basic 80k rookie wage. The rest of his negotiated salary will be included in the cap. Personally I can't see how paying a retired player is some form of cheating. They're wasting a rookie spot and a bunch of cap space on a guy who won't even play. I wish they did that with more players!

We have 8 list spots. No team should ever be adding 8 x 18 year old players to their list, yet alone a team that is hopefully close to contention like we are. A fifth of the list as babies in one season wouldn't be smart. Bargain basement retread players usually fail but so do the late round picks that take their spot. This year we've got enough list spots to add a couple of late round or rookie picks as well as a couple of mature players - be they delisted or state league types. Apart from mature depth that might contribute to the best side and play a number of games we have to add some older guys to strengthen the training standards, strengthen Casey and be low maintenance. I very much doubt we'll only add kids so my guess is the club is just waiting until draft night to weigh up the pros and cons of delisted players v state league players.

Why do you care? They are using a list spot on a retired player to pay out the contract owed to them. We have no shortage of list spots. The rookie list really has no difference to the main list these days, moving a senior player on to the rookie list does nothing to help or harm us.

I get the no alcohol thing, that's fine. Good for him. I know most kids have had plenty of drinks by 15 yet alone 18 but some haven't and if he's that committed to his footy then I kind of get that you'd go why even have a first drink? Can't miss what you've never had. There's plenty of other ways to unwind. The obsessive training concerns me. Especially the obsessive training with the dad, he might not be actively pushing him but he's condoning it. Surely there's a point of diminishing returns where you're just running up miles on a young body? Maybe he's the next Brent Harvey and can go for ages but what if he's the next Chris Judd who's body wasn't the same after about 25 and was pretty much done after 30? The obsessive diet concerns me even more and makes me worry he's not far from an eating disorder. He wouldn't be the first footballer. Weighing food and planning a diet is fine, but where's the harm in other people cooking for you or eating out at restaurants you trust? Combine that with the intermittent fasting and it's worrying behaviour. He's already drinking coffee every day - despite not liking it - to stay focused in school because his brain is crying out for some food!

I just saw Michael Apeness was delisted with a contract for next year and a promise of a rookie spot. Does a delisting not void the contract from the players point of view? Constantly injured but I think he's talented. Can or should we steal him from Freo and have a talented 3rd string ruck/forward?

I agree it's time to get a young player in to develop, but I also think the best back up key forward in modern footy is a key defender or ruckman given a role to play. Crash packs, tackle and kick the occasional goal seems to be the 2nd key forwards job and that's done better by a mature body than a young player anyway. The answer to the ruck and key forward depth might be best solved by the same player. If we were going purely for a needs player on the list we'd try to find a younger more athletic version of Pedersen. Not easy to find.

KC, Houston, Chargers

Couldn't find the exact article I remember reading but here's one from Oliver saying he was unsure what the draft combine meant and shocked to know 5 clubs were interested mid season. Clubs had interest in him but that doesn't mean he knew anything about professionalism and the AFL system. Plus he admits his skin folds were 96 after the TAC season! http://www.pressreader.com/australia/shepparton-news/20151120/282557312108186 Here's a story on Roos and the demons team recruiting Oliver. They put time in to learning about his family and his background. Then they set him up to live with the Brayshaw's and then Vanders/Trengove to develop his professionalism. Plus training with guys like Stretch. https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/from-a-parma-and-chips-to-an-afl-star-the-twisting-tale-of-melbourne-young-gun-clayton-oliver/news-story/e851d6ee0121dc71193c34897e04ba67 I think it's fair to say Indigenous players are more likely to suffer homesickness and missing training and being sat out for a game is a red flag but a red line is too much unless you have more to go on. It's the equivalent of ruling a player out on a bad highlights package instead of just putting it down as a concern and doing more research.

I remember an article that said mid year Oliver didn't even know there was a draft combine. After that he certainly improved a lot with extra fitness sessions but the article you posted was from July 1. I'm much more interested to know what Stack has done in the 5 months since than ruling him out from July. Cyril broke his arm in year 12. He didn't do any distance running at the draft camp and had terrible skin folds. He was picked on the basis of his year 10 and year 11 school footy and his pedigree as much as anything. The only thing the Hawks knew was that he stuck around for 4 years of boarding school - even if he did very little schooling, so he was probably going to stick around in Melbourne. They backed in Clarkson, their fitness coach, Chance Bateman's leadership and their culture. Watts getting moved on at 26 shouldn't have any bearing on 18 year olds in the draft.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I don't know anything about this kid, but imagine if Hawthorn felt similarly about Cyril Rioli in 2007. Imagine if we felt the same about Clayton Oliver when he was a chubby kid who couldn't make the Vic Country squads.