Little Goffy

I really hope the plan is to go with just a few picks in the draft, but keep them right at the pointy end. I.e. trade out 35 and a player for an advanced pick, or even a deal like Miller, 18 and 35 for Sydney's pick 7 (the magic pick, remember). By any account I've read it's a shallow draft with solid talent up to mid second round and then a major drop off. Promoting Valenti would certainly be better than using the same slot for pick 50-something. I think both Valenti and Spencer need to be promoted in order to keep other club's hands off them, since they can't be automatically re-rookied after the two years they have already had. The first pick in the PSD is always handy. Gives us that extra time to consider it and come up with a secret gem (last two - Jurrah from the outback and Martin from the amateurs, not too shabby!) So we've already accounted for the retirements of Whelan, Wheatley and presumably Robertson before we've even been into the main draft. Some of the 'real' picks will have to be found from trading players like Miller, and from the delisting of unlucky young players like Bell, Bartram and Buckley. I'd love to know how many of these guys we might be able to re-list as rookies in the way that West Coast picked up Steven Armstrong. A two-year rookie contract to them might work as a nod to 'we'll give you time to get your body right and see if you can develop again'. Because next draft and for a few after that, we'll be thrilled to have quality rookies we can promote when the draft for all the non-marketing-tool clubs starts at the second round.

I think that's why people are struggling so much with the draft thread, too. So many kids who just can't be judged yet.

We have a huge volume of talented 18-23 year olds, plus this year's intake. We have relatively few older players who are critical to the team, and I mean even in the 25ish range. We will only occassionally be losing 'core' or 'irreplacable' players of the next fve or even seven years. After that we'll see a wave of retirements from our current 'demographic bulge'. Remember that the compromised drafts of 2010-20?? will mean that other clubs won't be able to rebuild through the draft the way we have, and all clubs will be keen to collect tthe Brent Prismall types, decent looking players who aren't getting a chance at a power club. It also means that the 'penalty' of later draft order for top ranked teams is less significant. Meanwhile, we'll have the swell of talent that gives us the luxury of focusing on improving our picks, ie, late 1st round plus fringe player for slightly earlier first rounder. Throw in a few highly anticipated Father Son Selections (fingers crossed) and we're flying. Think about that age group we have so much faith in - seven years from now Cale Morton will be 26. He'll barely be peaking! Might not even have a Browlow by then. If these kids are as good as we feel they might be, good enough to win one premiership, then the fact is we're looking at a period of sustained success like no other since... ourselves. The stars are aligning for us, all we have to do is crush West Sydney and the Gold Coast.

Some basic descriptions of some of the guys we've been talking about, so everyone is on the same page, courtesy the 'Under-18 eye-catchers' reports of Jason Mcartney during the championships. Matthew Panos – Kicked three goals playing at centre half-forward. He took eight marks, including three contested, and had two scoring assists. Matthew has strong hands and presented well all day. His finishing in front of goal was exceptional and he also has good acceleration. He was hard to stop on the lead. Draft eligibility: 2009 NAB AFL Draft Jack Trengove – Jack is the South Australian captain. He was outstanding with 31 disposals, 13 contested possessions, six tackles, eight clearances and six inside 50s. He's got a mature body, kicks the ball well, is well balanced and makes good decisions. Jack played in the midfield and as a lead-up half-forward. He loves a contest and was ferocious with his attack on the footy. Draft eligibility: 2009 NAB AFL Draft Tom Scully – Was best-on-ground. He has a fantastic work-rate and when others were starting to tire, he was still working and running. Early on, he wasn't as clean as what he normally is, but he settled in pretty quickly. His hands in close were unbelievable – they were lightning and able to find teammates in space. Tom finished with four clearances and 33 disposals, including 23 handballs. He hardly missed a target with his hands. Draft eligibility: 2009 NAB AFL Draft Now, given that we are contractually obliged to select one NT player every draft, here's a couple of troppo prospects we might look at second round or later if we're lucky. Troy Taylor – No relation to teammate Mitch, he wears the lime green boots and plays like someone who wears lime green boots. He has got some Daniel Motlop about him. He is brilliantly quick on the lead and can take some spectacular marks and kick some great goals. He's got the bells and whistles and it's exciting when it gets in his area. He has some great natural talent. He has kicked six goals from three games. Draft eligibility: 2009 NAB AFL Draft Roland Ah Chee - Roland had 33 disposals, 11 marks, five clearances and six hard-ball gets. He pretty much did everything. I've seen Roland play at under 16s level and in last year's under 18 champs. He looks like he's got himself a lot fitter this year, as his work-rate against Tassie was outstanding. Roland really willed himself on to the contest. He has debuted this year in the SANFL and has been consistent at reserves level. Roland was also a very talented tennis player. If there's one thing that the TAC Future Stars Phantom Draft did, it's reassure me that there will be a good few options available at our second round pick, and that trading a player and pick 33(ish) for a higher pick would be a good call. (I.e. Miller to Sydney, they'll love eachother!)

Only when they aren't playing for Richmond.

Father-Son Rule is now pretty simple. We nominate an eligible draft nominee as a father-son selection. Other clubs may bid on the player, and we are then obliged to use our next available pick, AFTER the pick the other club nominated, to secure the player. If we choose not to do so, then the other club is obliged to take the draftee in question with the selection they nominated. So, if another club rated Grinter Jnr at, say, 25 and our next pick was 37, then we'd take him at 37. If Viney Jnr was rated by another club at 7 and our next pick was 12, that's where we'd have to take him. Unless of course we traded our pick 12... in which case it just drops to our next one. As always, there will eventually be some kind of manipulating the system controversy one day.

Uhh... the low number of interchanges may have something to do with the three players out for the game, plus the one who missed about a half sore and only came back on because there was nobody else to rotate with. Nothing to see there, I'm afraid.

Debut 2009 - Jetta, Bennell, Watts, Jurrah, Spencer, Cheney, (Not counting Meesen) Debut 2008 - Grimes, Morton, Maric, Weetra, Martin, Valenti, Wonaeamirri. I'd reckon Weetra is the one you're missing from 08. And to think... the 2010 debut list, given the high picks from 2008 draft who aren't likely to come in this year and the various picks from 2009 draft, will probably be just a big and perhaps even better. <thunder rumbles in distance>

My dream is Morton will be a 193cm Robbie Flower Robbie did lead the goalkicking for a few years, as well as killing the wing. And he was a skinny dude, too! Tenuous, sure, but I like to dream. Certainly I think Flower would be an ideal mentor for him.

I wonder, has Scully ever not been tagged? Not many teenagers are given quite that much attention. Throw that together with the amount of work Scully does in close anyway, and the kicking efficiency is pretty good. And yes, looking at under-18 stats, you'd have to say that there's a general 10% improvement within a year or two at AFL level, though obviously there are plenty of exceptions. Part of this is just the way the game changes. Remember also that we're talking about a kid with a berserk determination to improve, at the Judd/Buckley level, so set him up with a couple of AFL level coaches and he'll just bloom and bloom.

After last week's effort from everyone, the only reasons to drop a player would be suspension (obviously Sylvia) or to rest them. Resting looks like it could only really apply to Morton and Jurrah. Personally I'd like to see Jurrah keep going, he doesn't seem to be slowing at all, to me. Morton I love, but psychologically if he would understand that he is only being rested rather than 'cut', then I think a week or two at Casey might help him refocus. Bell is someone I always want to see come good. Something about him always seem right, even when he's doing things that seem so wrong. Dunn deserves a shot. Half forward, negating. If Jurrah gets rested then I'd have Newton come in to see if he can get a few positives out of the season.

When I said Jack Watts has supported Melbourne since high school... You know he is in high school now, right?

Brock Mclean did not support any club as a kid, so that he wouldn't have any torn loyalties when he was drafted. (Not kidding!) I think that counts, in as much as the Demons are his only ever club. I know Jack Watts has supported Melbourne since he was in High School...

Martin is smart enough and diligent enough to do it. If he started to look like he wasn't developing towards that, then it'd be worth narrowing his role. But if he can do it, well, let's not put any barriers in the way!

I've pointed this out on another thread too. 23,000 is as much as 8,000 more than we would have been likely to get against this opponent, in this weather, after those last few weeks, and in this extraordinary round. So let it go, huh?

I'll be there! I'll actually be there! I'm chipping away at this 'distance' part. It'll be great to actually get along to an event. See you there.

I thought both had fairly mixed games but where pretty good all up. Robbo really did look a lot like the Robbo we love, and did the things we love to see him doing. Rivers, much the same sentiment. The kicking was a big let down a few times, though. But, the Jared Rivers 'game' was back at least. Jack Grimes.

Can't take any pleasure in NikNat having a poor day. And I'd reckon WC wont be unhappy with the pick any time soon. BUT I can and will take a lot of pleasure from seeing a massive FAIL for all the bandwagoners who had been tearing at Watts with comparisons to a couple of good quarters from NikNat.

Yeah, whatever. For what it's worth, that's about 6-8,000 more than the game would likely have attracted normally, maybe more given the weather and the extraordinary set of tight and significant games over this round. Edit: Removed pointless personal comment and also thought to note that the effectively season-ending clash between the 'record-membership Hawks' and the surging Doggies only got 36,000. The whole state has set their football ration to sunday - I know people who won't be watching their team on sunday in order to make sure they see the Saints-Cats. And also, gee that Jack Grimes can play!

If we win, the story will be 'Did it for Jimmy'. If we lose, even in a big way, the story will be 'emotionally exhausted demons'. Come on, who would sink the boot in now, huh? And personally, I despise this 'do it for x' stuff. Does it mean you don't care if you don't win a game of football in the same calendar week?

Bingo! Exactly. Which I think means... midfielders first? I like your observation of the inside 50s / score assists. How about that, a constructive and informed use of statistics to illustrate a point borne out by match-day observations. Kudos.

Now, I know Bryce Gibbs was made a part of the Carlton leadership group before he'd even played a game, but we seem to have taken it to a new level with a player coming out and making statements for the club before he's even drafted... Scully backs Watts to find form I'll get in first - MAKE HIM CAPTAIN!

Just on the Watts comparison... Q1 - What do the following players all have in common? Tredrea, Hall, Brown, Pavlich, Fevola, Lloyd, Roughead, Riewoldt, Franklin? Answer; Stats about the same as Watts has now, in their first year. Only Richardson, of the current big name forwards, had a signifcantly better stats start with a whopping 11.4 possessions and 2.2 goals a game. Q2: How many games and goals did Wayne Carey get in his first season? 4, 1. Bascially, you have to go back to Gary Ablett Snr to find a star forward who really got going in their first season, the freak kicked 3 a game even in his first year.

Well, for a stretch there, I think it was just bum luck that we missed out. Injuries to guys like Schwartz, Tingay, Lyon, and just badly timed runs (like coming up against Essendon in 2000!), and of course the poor facilities and resources. But I watch myself for falling into self-pity and 'couldabeens, they wuz good times, for those who held out through the previous quarter century. I look forward to the old guard finally getting their well-earned reward soon.

Yeah, from all account he's returned to mediocre Wheatley, rather than handy attacking Wheatley. His defensive effort has never really been enough to justify him unless his attack, with that long kick, was up to it. Doesn't look like we'll see much more than some farewell games from him. He may get to play in the glorious round 22 win over St. Kilda. The secret reason I hope St. Kilda beat Geelong this week is that I want them to go undefeated right up until they hit us in round 22. It'd be historic! They'd hate us for a generation!