Little Goffy

Let's just take a happy moment to reflect on what the rest of that draft's top ten included - Patrick McCartin Jarrod Pickett Jordan De Goey Caleb Marchbank Paul Ahern Peter Wright Darcy Moore (F/S) Nakia Cockatoo And from outside the top ten, the only really potent prospects to come through are - Jake Lever, Isaac Heeney (Acad), Jack Steele, Caleb Daniel. So, however things go, I don't think we'll left left feeling like we were the dud drafters that year, with Petracca, Brayshaw, Neal-Bullen, Stretch, and Oscar. Also grabbed Garlett, Lumumba and Frost in trades.

It's alright, just takes the pressure off Salem, Viney, Petracca et al. As far as going under the radar goes, the top marks have to go to Billy Stretch who has been excellent this year. 24 disposals a game, 9 of them contested, some tackles, some clearances, exceptional disposal (at 85%) just the one clanger to his name, and yet to give away a free kick. Just steadily fulfilling the promise. Sorry, I know this is a Clarence thread, but it is relevant as far as remembering that Oliver, while a monster, doesn't have quite so much pressure on him because he's not the only kid turning the club around.

If we got Jake Lever, we would be on the brink of list management nirvana - strong in every role in every part of the ground. Hawthorn's acquisition of Josh Gibson comes to mind.

McCartin has had a wretched run with collision injuries and concussions, so hard to say how he'll turn out. But then again, Petracca has already had a full year out and then some, due to injury. Can't help thinking that the Saints were hoping for a Riewoldt, and got a Koschitzke. Meanwhile, Melbourne were hoping for a Petracca and got a Petracca. The Barry Prendergast 'warning' comes to mind - never recruit on the basis of how you imagine a player might be if they change in the ways you hope they will.

Thank you for bringing that thought into the conversation, always nice to remember Eddie McGuire is still miserable and only going to get sadder. I don't think Collingwood or Carlton have made much progress on their lists for quite a few years now. Between them, all they seem to have done is keep on feeding the GWS beast. Carlton keeps bringing in bundles of semi-adequate or 'might be handy' players without much real quality being added. They have lost more 'sure best 22' players in trade in the last five years than they've gained. The deficit from losing Eddie Betts alone hasn't been covered. There's been a few good draft picks, like Cripps and Weitering, but at the moment the best they can hope for is the Richmond situation of loitering around the middle of the table, with the same 10 players getting all the spots in the best and fairest every year for a decade. Collingwood have grabbed Howe, Greenwood, Dunn, White, Mayne and Wells in trade or free agency, because obviously the secret to sustained success is to bring in more of the older non-leaders with no big game credentials. Interestingly, all their recruiting under the age of 26 has been from GWS. Adams, Treloar, Hosking-Elliot. And they probably paid 'overs' for all three, even if the first two have been core players since arriving. Two first round picks for Adam Treloar, and then Heath Shaw for Taylor Adams. Meanwhile, Melbourne have managed a total list rebuild. As for our trading - I don't see a lot of overs, and most importantly, we didn't move ourselves out of any top-end draft positions. Bugg - acquired along with a pick upgrade from 10 to 7, in exchange for a third and fourth round pick. Kennedy - A complex multi-club deal, our share was "Melbourne received Kennedy and picks No.29 and 50 and gave up Howe and Toumpas " Frost - traded from Greater Western Sydney to Melbourne in exchange for pick 23, with the Giants sending picks No.40 (Nibbler) and No.53 (O.Mc) back to the Demons. Garlett - Picks 61 and 79. Haaa ha ha. We'll have to wait and see how Melksham (pick 25), Hibberd (pick 29) and Lewis (pick ha ha bite me Hawthorn) turn out. Tell you what, all these trades go direct back to the Taylor stamp, the total absence of draft picks from 10-39. He must really hate that range.

Only just noticed, we should add the two 'season long' results - Finish with a % greater than 100 Finish with more wins than losses. An odd one we knocked over last year thanks to Clayton Oliver is 'have any player experience more wins than losses in a season', last held by Lynden Dunn in 2006. Something I would love to see (and definitely counts as an embarrasing record) is removing our set of three players (Jones, McDonald and Watts) from the list of 'worst winning percentage' of current players. They are between 27% (Jones) and 29% (Watts), and would need to push to over 30% at least, to clear the list. For Jones than would need maybe half a dozen wins without a loss. Coincidentally, Jones is also the individual current player who has played in the most losses (162), despite being as much as 100 total games short of close rivals Robert Murphy (161), Kade Simpson (160) and Nick Riewoldt (157). This can be easily corrected in just a few games. Taking Watts, McDonald and Jetta off the current list of 'most games without ever playing a final'. Watts currently tops the list, and we MUST break the run this season, Watts moves onto the all-time list as well as onto the all-time list of most games prior to playing a final, even if we do make it next year.

Personally I'm a big fan of the 'high-low' draft strategy that the Taylor-period Demons have leaned towards - on the one hand using genuinely early selections and making them stick, and on the other hand being ready to 'churn' the late picks, giving multiple chances each year to bring in 'possibles'. High-low drafting under Jason Taylor: 2016, first pick at 46. 2015, picks 4 and 9, then 42. 2014, picks 2 and 3, then 40 2013, pick 9, then 40 At the Demons, Jason Taylor has never used a draft pick from 10 to 39. Anyway, sometimes it isn't just who you take or pass on in drafts that matters, it is who you keep or de-list. I don't think with our current administration we'll be seeing errors like the 7-year career of Michael Newton. Again that points to recognising the value of late picks and keeping them turning over. If a player is not going to deliver AFL quality, then they are not valuable to an AFL team, even if the replacement might be even worse, you can't rate below zero!

I took this as a challenge, I think I felt a compulsion to get a lid on. But really, even after looking over a whole lot of top picks and players in recent years, there just aren't many cases. I've done a run-through of the other 'teen star' contenders, I would be quite happy to have them be Oliver's peers and equals! The obvious 'set' of stars who managed to dominate a few games even as teenagers includes - Fyfe, Martin, Selwood, Bontempelli, Macrae and Cripps Others worth noting - Toby Greene, Harley Bennell, Chad Wingard, Oliver Wines, Isaac Heeney Lance Franklin managed two bags of six in his second season, but it wasn't until his third that he really took off (game for game, Hogan is a mile ahead of his curve ) For the record, saturday's effort was definitely the best individual game so far from anyone in Oliver's draft.

For me, it's Essendon and Carlton. These two clubs have been at a disproportionate share of our important moments in the last 20 years, right from the 2000 finals to the 2016 shock losses. I'll come back and edit this post later with a listing of the significant moments.

Funny story - The Sydney Swans have been fined $20,000 for failing to properly update the central database of what injections and treatments two players received, ...on one occasion, ...although they did have detailed internal records which were readily available for cross-checking. So, let's see... Essendon... some 40 players, about twice a week, for at least 6 months, with no internal or central records kept. 2080 incidents x $10,000 an incident = $20.8m fines, minimum, if my quick maths is right. And that's just the central record-keeping side, not the failure to keep internal records at all. And of course, the record-keeping problem at Sydney was entirely involving common and explicitly WADA-approved injections. Y'know what, I really hate the Essendon Football Club. For everything they stand for, but most of all the 'we're so hard-done-by' whinging and the strutting around like they've successfully come through a period of being victimised.

They'd want Mitch King as part of the deal, and I'm not willing to pay overs.

It would be a good bit of fun if we set up some kind of repeat of the Tyson/Salem/Kelly deal. Trouble is, what does GWS really need, at all, let alone what we have to offer that we'd willingly lose? Who knows, maybe they'll imagine Spencer as the successor to the great Simmonds, Jolly and Martin tradition of Demons rucks blossoming at other clubs.

Just playing Devil's Advocate... but what if Hird was telling the truth, and he really hadn't known about the illegality and scale of the Essendon supplements program, as adminstered by Dank, reporting to Robinson, reporting to Hamilton? What if he had sincerely believed that his admonishments, and request that no further injections be made without Dr Reid's approval, were taken seriously and had established a safe line of reporting? How is it that Hamilton and Corcoran, for example, haven't been drawn and quartered for public entertainment during one of the 'We are Essendon' marches?

Watched a couple of old highlight reels and the 'arrivials lounge' interview with him, and I must say there's more to him than my memory was telling me. He's actually capable of doing a whole lot of good things. He can kick it a long way with an excellent fast low arc. He can snap goals instinctively. He can chase opponents down. He has that energetic attitude of fast thinking and action in chaos, and trying things that aren't regulation. Now, I've sat with Essendon supporters many a time and seen them beat their hands on tables in frustration at Melksham because of the turnovers and the blunders, but I think a lot of that comes down to him actually trying to do something useful. A lot of those same Essendon supporters (back at the time) would spend the rest of the game groaning about handballing in circles at half-back, or tedious switches of play that come to nothing. So, anyone losing the plot now about how there's been a post about Jake Melksham in the Jake Melskham thread?

Something that makes list decisions a bit difficult is that we really have developed a lot of versatility across our small/medium players. It's hard to get a fix on pecking orders when they can be continually changing what they are there to peck! Obvious example being Neal-Bullen, Stretch, Bugg, Salem and Melksham. It's not quite clear exactly where they'll be positioned. If the midfield core group develops smoothly next year, with these five all be fighting (as well as Hunt, Wagner and Lamumba) to compete for the half-back roles? Same thing applies at the other end - Kennedy, Kent, VandenBerg, Petracca could all end up commanding a full-time midfield spot or all be primarily working across half-forward. Add to this versatility the fact that so many of the young players are 'promising but not guaranteed', and the fickleness of youthful form, we could find that over 2017 we have four too many or four too few. The key position deal seems a little more set. Mac, Mac, Frost down back, and Hogan, Weidemann, Watts up forward. Pederson as a swingman 'big utility' who won't be first in line for any one position, but could end up playing most games as the cover for any one of six talls! Dawes, sadly, looks thoroughly surplus to needs now, while down back where covering the risk of missing key position players is more important, both Dunn and Garland have more time left on their contracts, so the situation kind of offers its own answers. It's almost as if the taller the players get, the clearer the situation. Max Gawn must continue to be Max Gawn. Spencer is the absolutely essential backup.

I think if a deal came down to "Hibberd and Melksham for two second-round picks", I'd take it. Hibberd a much more valuable player, both in quality and position. I'd be quite content if it took an earlier second rounder gained through the 'academy points package deal' process to get Hibberd. Let's be honest, our drafting this year and maybe another is about running the turnover for any 'discount gems'. We have depth across midfield, forward line and even tall defenders. Basically, with Hibber adding an extra piece of consistency and class in defence, we're fine for 'ok, AFL-level' players for now. It is going to take a year or two to find out where the real deficiencies are in this young group (other than learning to run in supportive packs... sigh).

If anyone has reached their The Age limit for the month, remember you can just switch to 'incognito mode' (on chrome, or the equivalent on any other browser) and The Age's website wont be able to recognise you. Or you can find their counter cookie in your internet history files and delete it. State. Of. The. Art.

Something funny I noticed when I was looking at the charts in the article about "How Roos finally turned the Demons around". Our current run is our longest stretch of consecutive 'improved seasons' since the 1940s. Win count 1942-46 - 5, 7, 7(%), 8, and finally 13 (and a grand final appearance). The only other run of 4 in a row is 1923-26, going 3,4,12,14 and culminating in a premiership. It gets better for Mr Roos. That 1940s run is shared between Percy Beams and 'Checker' Hughes, who each coached a couple of those season, and the 1920s run is shared between Rattray, Wilson and finally Chadwick. Meaning that Paul Roos holds the Melbourne Football Club record for consecutive seasons of improvement as coach.

Probably keep - Surely Trengove is a keeper? It'd be pretty dumb to hold onto a player through their rehab, give them a few games where they showed they are still competent, and then dump them before they've had a real preseason with the group. Keeping him makes practical sense as well as avoiding that sour feeling. Kennedy-Harris has slowed his development dramatically since his early exciting start, but I'd imagine he's had enough bad luck and shown enough good glimpses to justify another season. Neal-Bullen we'd be mad to delist. Great depth at a low price, and looks constantly on the edge of stepping up and being a serious AFL contributor. No 'risk' or cost involved in keeping him, and there is real chance of a big upside. Pederson. Look below at the first line of the 'exits' - I see four senior players Pederson is ahead of, and stays ahead of given he can cover any of their roles and as a bonus is the only one who can also support in the ruck. He's the most versatile and most reliable of the lot. Probably farewell - Awkward times for Lumumba, Dunn, Garland, Dawes and Grimes. I wouldn't say any of them are out-and-out failures, but they all have limitations (which have driven a few Demonlanders mad... madder) and they have all been overtaken by others. Terlich and Michie are presumably both done at AFL level, despite being quite respectable at Casey. But there's the rub - three years ago both those guys, and all of the players mentioned above, would have been in our starting 22 out of a fully fit list. Newton I'm sad about - I thought he could have been a genuine attacking mid, but he just hasn't ever put it all together. Though he's young enough to be given some more time, I think as a club we're best served by trying a new kid. So, I've got 8 players on the probable exit list. Some might be worth a little bit in trade, at least enough to do a shuffle of academy cash-in picks which might get us one pick late in the first round. I like the idea of 'high-low' in drafts; early to get something we need, late for turnover of bottom-price 'possibles'. Scanning the draft prospect list, it seems there's two 'suitable for needs' tall half-backs, Witherden and Rotham, both tipped for late in the first round. Several of those likely to leave will be on decent pay, so our salary cap will open up a bit, to either secure the players we need to keep or to grab a loose player that fits our needs. The rest can be a collection of late draft 'interesting' picks for McCartney to see what he can do with. We'll go into the 2017 season with a deep midfield, a variety of talls both forward and back, more speed than we've had in many many years, and the game's best ruckman. Touch wood.

Progressing nicely, could become my favourite type of AFL player - a reliable best-22 quality who gets the job done and doesn't often stuff the whole thing up. May we see 200+ underrated games from the kid.

That game was a mad crazy party for kids. 18 - Oliver 19 - Stretch 20 - Petracca, Harmes 21 - Hunt, Hogan, Wagner 22 - Viney, Kennedy, Tyson, Kent. Eleven players on the field under 23 years old. And meanwhile, waiting injured, there's Salem, Brayshaw, ANB, O.Mac and the draftees. It doesn't mean a dynasty is starting, it doesn't mean all our problems are solved, I'm not getting ahead of myself, the lid is on, some of these kids wont sustain the standard long term, we're still getting a huge contribution from veterans like Jones and Vince, Pederson and... Garland? Lumumba?

If you want reasonably credible rankings for player from just this year, there's a few options to consider. Inside Football's http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/ The coaches association votes appear on the AFL website after every round. You can also just run with champion data, and sort by supercoach points by position (probably easiest using footywire) None are ideal, but all are better than the 'Official AFL Player ratings brought to you by schmuck'

Lynch-Hogan could be quite the shootout, the way the Suns and ourselves are defending against marking talls lately.

Max Gawn circa 1500BC

Top effort Rance, fail to compete, drop an elbow into the back of someone's head while they are lying on the ground, and then take a dive as soon as anyone gives you a shove. You're written off, pretty boy. You'll never get those three seconds back.