Little Goffy

Adelaide 7.6. 48 GWS 1.6 12 Carlton 7.5 47 GWS 5.4 34 Fremantle 6.7 43 GWS 7.1 43 Brisbane 6.7 43 GWS 1.3 9 GWS has the worst 'against' score in the game, at 181, but it might be more significant that they have given away at least 40 points in every game. There's not been one specific blowout. They obviously have a mixed record as far as their own scoring. GWS' total failure to score against the top teams is part of why Adelaide and Brisbane have such good percentage. But they did manage to crack Freo's leaky defense (second worst after GWS) and Carlton's rather inconsistent one. So the opportunity is there to clamp down on GWS' scoring, and to also enact a goal-fest of our own, and it might be the deciding point of whether our percentage can climb high enough to break past whichever of Adelaide and Brisbane falter. Time to find out if the 'falter when we're expected to win' curse covers the women's team as well as the mens. I don't think so, I think the leadership is too good on the women's team.

Trivia Question: How many coaches (including stand-ins after sackings) has Colin Garland played at least one AFL game under? Answer: 8 That's roughly one coach for every 17.5 AFL games he has played. Or, one new coach per 4.25 wins he has played in. I just really hope that, by whatever quirk of list management or sudden burst of form, he gets a run of games at some point this season and gets to play and win a final or four. Some excerpts from the 'footywire.com' bio: Wednesday, 7 October 2015 Colin Garland rejects free agency and commits to Melbourne until the end of the 2018 season. "I told my manager I didn't want to speak to any other club, but it's funny after seeing one of my great mates [James Frawley] win a premiership on the weekend, because you have to be envious of success," Garland said. "I was watching the game and people said, 'Wouldn't you love success?' and I said, 'It wouldn't mean anything to me unless it was with Melbourne'. Wednesday, 10 June 2015 Colin Garland will spend some time on the sidelines after undergoing surgery for a broken hand. Garland showed extraordinary courage to play out the Queen Birthday's game against Collingwood despite sustaining the injury in the first quarter. "[He] knew that we were struggling a little bit and one man down, so he played the whole game with a broken hand," Melbourne fitness coach Dave Misson said. Friday, 6 September 2013 Nathan Jones has taken out his second successive best and fairest award for the Demons, winning the Keith 'Bluey' Truscott Memorial Trophy. Jones won with 365 votes in a remarkably close count, just shading consistent defender Colin Garland who finished on 360 votes.

I kind of hope he does. I'm just glad not to be alone noticing it.

So, is Mitch Hannan's new nickname going to be 'Chomper', 'Dracula' or 'Floss'? Meanwhile, I'm a bit confused about exactly what Watts did today. One of those articles had him leaving early and going home sick, but also staying behind after the session to do some drills with a line-coach. If Watt's pre-season has been about transdimensional motion and he's now managing to be in two places at once, then we might have a serious player on our hands.

I expect he will, but I'm more interested in where. Even Hogan is taking a run through the midfield in the pre-season games. So many half-forwards in our team now, there's a question on where Watts fits in a structure that seems to be about giving Hogan more space closer to goal, balanced by having multiple players available to cause destruction by going forward at the right moment. Jack Watts - tall wing + sporadic relief ruck + roving third tall forward + pinch defender... I just want to see him play so I can find out what he'll be doing this year.

King has been put back onto the LTI list with a view to a slow and steady rehab, so I believe Smith now has a clean shot at round 1, if he can keep his form for full games through the pre-season. This is all so complicated, how do we fit everyone in?! hee hee haw haw

We've got some real selection headaches coming up, by the looks of it. Heee he ha ha hoo ha ha he hee ha ha haaaa (head drops off) Good times, good times.

Giants don't seem to be offering so much as a squeak against Brisbane at the moment. Which reminded me, Brisbane's actual scoring difference hasn't been so spectacular, it's just that their opponents have completely failed to score much of anything at all. One loss by even three or four goals would bring their % right back down. Anyway, destiny is of course in our own hands. With three rounds left to play, we're one game short and we play - One of the teams we need to pass, and Two teams which are winless and have % below 65.

Funny story - The Sydney Swans have been fined $20,000 for failing to properly update the central database of what injections and treatments two players received, ...on one occasion, ...although they did have detailed internal records which were readily available for cross-checking. So, let's see... Essendon... some 40 players, about twice a week, for at least 6 months, with no internal or central records kept. 2080 incidents x $10,000 an incident = $20.8m fines, minimum, if my quick maths is right. And that's just the central record-keeping side, not the failure to keep internal records at all. And of course, the record-keeping problem at Sydney was entirely involving common and explicitly WADA-approved injections. Y'know what, I really hate the Essendon Football Club. For everything they stand for, but most of all the 'we're so hard-done-by' whinging and the strutting around like they've successfully come through a period of being victimised.

How much fun is it watching a game of football to see who is going to break out in any given week? Women's game is so gloriously volatile at the moment.

I remember her really excellent commentary during the opening Carlton-Collignwood match. Clear enunciation and articulation, and almost everything she said was football related and actually making a point instead of waffling. Even if you're not paying much attention to the commentary, she has a pleasant voice that isn't annoying to have in the background. Is there anything Daisy can't do? It is getting ridiculous. Daisy Pearce is someone we should be hoping is a part of the culture of the Melbourne Football Club for the next half century at least!

It's a pretty terrible rendition. An unfortunate overdo of what should have been just a simple change.

We have so many possible options for trouble-making small half-forwards, the decision is just about random. Kennedy, Kennedy-Harris, Bugg, Melksham, Johnston, we could give Nibbler a try up there, send Vince on a goal-seeking holiday, or just give Petracca and Brayshaw extra time up forward. It is pretty much our best depth position, so it'll have to be decided competitively. Unless someone really stands out in the practice matches, we're not going to know who it is until the team sheets come out.

Definitely and definitely. An option to also get an all-purpose discount when bringing people with you would be good, too. The stadiums would love it, everyone drinks and eats more in a group.

That year, and a lot of the Daniher era come to think of it, was all very 'streaky'. Strings of losses and runs of wins, enough to drive us all mad. 2004 finished with 5 losses in a row. 2005 there was a 7-loss run that took us from competing for top spot against the Eagles in round 13, losing by just two goals in Perth, to barely scraping into finals at the last gasp. 2006 we started and finished the season shakily and dominated mid-season. Yeah, adding the fade-out at the end of 2016 to the equation, you'd have to say that for Melbourne it is a real problem to be in finals contention, it really messes them up. Yay.

So, to summarise - Some guy called Mitch Clearly ( who was given a <100 article space online to share it) reckons Watts is in the naughty corner and his 'round one place is in jeopardy'. ProDee, who is on record as maniacally obsessed with how much Watts sucks balls, is really into this and also reckons the rest of the world in general are morons and probably vote green. Everyone else is offering a mix of 'wait and see, I'm not going to jump at a rumour' or 'hang on, he's been looking fit and engaged in all the training'. I guess we wait and see. Will ProDee have to have Watts as his avatar for another year? Only time will tell!

It'd need to be a team effort. One poster shares the rumour from one source, another backs them up after 'talking to someone who would know', then a couple of fake accounts on bigfooty. It is almost unfair on the journo, you just know they'll bite. Anyway, to me, the 'poor condition -> omission' things would seem more credible if it were a case of 'point source' rather than 'general'. Arriving hungover to a session during the Gold Coast trip, rather than being generally unfit. Ooh, there we go, the rumour is getting some meat on it now.

End of 2016, Bulldogs (taking the field) were almost a year older and almost 20 games more experienced than the Demons. Here's the figures for the Bulldogs team that beat Sydney and the Melbourne team that beat Hawthorn a few weeks earlier. A fair age/experience comparison would be the Demons of 2017 to the Bulldogs of 2016. In fact, given that all of Oliver, Weidemann, Petracca, O.Mac, Wagner, Stretch, Hunt, Harmes, Salem and Brayshaw finished the season with at most 31 games, we'll probably still have twice as many 'actual kids' at the end of 2017 as did the Bulldogs ending 2016. That's not taking away anything from the Dog's achievement. As the same table above shows, both Sydney and Hawthorn had about half their team in the very top bracket for experience. What Footscray managed, from 7th on the ladder, was a genuine breakthrough built on terrific depth and a core of true stars capable of changing the tone of games, and having it all come together at just the right time. No shame in looking to the Dogs as an inspiration, but let's not pretend they got there on 'kids'.

While I think the 'tired players' thing was talked up a bit much at the end of last year, there is some case for it when you consider those last two games in particular. Bugg definitely faded at the very end of the season. Garlett was ill then a bit flat. Gawn's final two games were among his least damaging for the season. Hogan had clearly faded for about the last 6 rounds. N. Jones last two games, he was still getting it but not causing any great damage. Kennedy had a good first third of the season, ordinary second, and spent the final third of the season in the VFL. Kent copped a quad injury against Carlton and wasn't available against Geelong. Petracca was struggling to stay involved and alerts throughout the final games. Stretch's last couple of games were his least effective for the year. Vince had become quite erratic in his form in the late part of the season, those last two were poor. Even Viney was up and down for the last portion of the season, mixing some great games with some very ordinary. Wagner was another one who had faded late in the season and was back in VFL despite decent earlier form. Watts kicked just one goal in his final three games. Hmm, so that's 12 players who had a distinctly weak end to their season. I've actually turned a bit now that I've looked closer, and I'm more receptive to the idea of a 'tired team'. So, to the other part of the topic, how can we have any confidence it wont be just as bad in 2017? 1. Youth development. Yes, preseasons do make a difference, and especially for young players, which includes a big chunk of our list, on every line. 2. List improvement. Lewis, Hibberd and Melksham are all capable of contributing to run, have mature bodies and habits, and should between them play many more games than the entire 2016 group of delistings, to a substantially higher standard. 3. More rest. The steady stream of marks and goals from Jesse Hogan will give all Melbourne players more periods to refresh themselves during the course of each game, as well as allowing for better scheduling of interchanges without needing to sprint to the bench while play is on.

I actually agree. I've always had patience with Spencer, partly because he is an absolutely necessary backup, partly because of bonus marks for attitude and the often-overlooked tackling effort, and partly in hope that we could one day have the 2-ruck formation that would let both rucks perform at top potency, rather than facing attrition. The only question is whether a team can afford to share the ruck role between multiple players when only one of them is able to play other roles, and it is the one you'd want in the ruck most often. I just don't think you can have a player out there who is only getting 50-60% game time. That said, if Gawn turns into a 50-goal a year contested marking goliath who also can smash the ruck anytime he feels like it, and Spencer lifts to be a consistent bullocking brute ruck in his own right, then I wont be complaining!

Next week we play Carlton, where a win would put us into third place, a game clear of the middle-pack. That leaves us chasing one of Adelaide or Brisbane, just need one of them to falter and leave that second grand final slot open, and in such a volatile league, I'd be seriously surprised if they didn't both drop at least one game from the remaining four, and obviously one must, when they play eachother. It'd be hugely annoying if our early first game lack of composure (and a game disrupted by storms and lightning!) against Brisbane cost us the spot. Anyway, four games left - Carlton at Casey - A good defence and a good attack led by Vescio and fellow contested marker Jakobsson. Brianna Davey is a star, driving them from HB and wing, and a major reason they have the best disposal efficiency as a team. Carlton are VERY unlucky (don't mention free kicks) to not be one of the remaining undefeated teams. The Carlton-Melbourne game will be a major test of game styles - the top clearance team against the most efficient ball users, the top team for volume of inside 50s, vs the top team for contested marks and marks inside 50 - while the two teams share honours for total disposals and contested possessions. Honestly, it's a little sad that what I'd argue are the two best teams in the league have both been set a step behind the pace through unlucky losses in scrappy games. But such is life, and now one of them will be knocked out of the running in this game. Western Sydney at Blacktown - GWS lead the women's game for tackles, but are nothing special on clearances and last for contest possessions. It seems a more even group with a big midfield rotation - multiple players with 'good' but not outstanding clearances and disposal counts and so forth. In the midfield, Jess dal Pos and Ashliegh Guest are the main concern, racking up tackles, their fair share of clearances and contested posessions, but also having well above average disposal efficiency. Phoebe McWilliams is their forward threat - not only an impressive 80% goal accuracy, but a generally efficient use of the ball all. On the bright side, GWS have leaked goals, giving away at least 40 points in every game so far. Adelaide at TIO - Strangely, the team to beat is also the team with no big statistical notes. Only things worth mentioning are good but not overwhelming inside 50s, marks inside 50, and goals. That'll do it, though. This is built on three different players capable of bringing the ball effectively into attack - Randall, Marinoff and Phillips. Erin Phillips in particular stands out, with 4 goals, 3 goal assists, and top-bracket figures for inside 50s, clearances, marks, practically everything. However, having said all that, a Carlton supporter might point out that Adelaide only won by 3 points, despite a 15-8 free kick count. Bulldogs supporters might gripe that their inaccuracy, more than Adelaide's superiority, had more to do with it. Or possibly the 30-15 free kick count, too. In fact, I didn't even look at it at first, but Adelaide is averaging 22 free kicks a game, 7 higher than the average of 15, and still 5 higher than the next most awarded. Frees against is spot on average. Have I uncovered the first big controversy of the women's AFL? Fremantle at Casey - If you want confirmation of GWS' tendency to leak goals, just look to Fremantle, who scored 6 of their 10 goals so far against them. Of course, GWS also scored 7 of their 13 goals so far in that drawn game. Fremantle being behind only GWS for points scored against. So, for Fremantle you're looking at a team that so far has struggled to score AND struggled to prevent opposition scoring. As for individual players at Fremantle, Kara Donnellan stands out as an all-purpose midfielder, doing some of everything and doing it well, with good disposal efficiency. More on the inside, Lara Filocomo is a top clearance winner, with solid tackle and contested possession counts. Demon bias considered, Donnellan is no Pearce and Filocomo is no Paxman, however, a set of supporting inside types, like tackle-machine Ebony Antonio, mean that Fremantle have managed to keep up a high level of clearance wins.

I wonder if we're so used to thinking of older players as being in the 'will be gone by the time we play finals' category that there's a kind of subliminal lack of realisation of just how valuable Lewis can be. His game yesterday was, y'know, normal, for him, for the last three years. Which also raises the interesting point that after an excellent first nine years, his most recent three have been a step up on even that. He is only 30, his form has improved with age, signed a 3-year deal, and would reasonably be aiming to score a fifth premiership, keeping up his ratio of premierships/years. I also wonder how it is affecting the other older players. Will the recruitment of Lewis mark the turning point where older players, even if they are there as depth, start to think 'if I am in the team now, it means I'm in the team during the attack on a premiership', instead of just thinking they are there to babysit and then be forcibly retired. The other thing that intrigues me is this Gawn-Spencer relationship. Both had a good day, with good numbers (particularly given both played under 60% game time), but there's still a question on whether they really fit out there at the same time. It's unfortunate that the primary ruck, Gawn, is also the more versatile of the two. If only Spencer could contribute more around the ground or as a forward option!

The suspense is killing me. I really want to see Trengove return to AFL level and play out a good career even with just one or two premierships, its not like he has to win the Norm Smith. I'm glad there's the women's game to hold my attention in the meantime. Speaking of which, Jess Trengove, on a wing, that'd work. Though I doubt she'd give up her marathons. Maybe she could just be a fitness advisor for the squad, since she is also a physiotherapist and motivational coach.

Well, we've already beaten the premiers twice, so clearly we've got this in the bag.

You know what they say about how new young players sometimes take some time to 'feel like they belong' at AFL level? I get the feeling like the improvement we are watching in women's football makes sense if you think of it in those terms. The sudden switch-on in confidence as people realise during the week that they really can do this thing - I'd say it is the only explanation for the dramatic week-by-week improvement in the game. But so far, there's still nobody like our Daisy.