Fat Tony

We conceded 21 scores vs Crows and 19 vs Hawthorn and didn’t win either largely due to goal kicking differential. I think the bigger issue is conversion and our ball movement being a bit too predictable and conservative. The other main problem at times is trying to get a perfect exit at stoppages rather than just getting a quick kick forwards.

I think the conditions helped the Hawks tactic of using scrappy entries inside 50. And like the Crows, they gambled a bit by going into the corridor with handball. Is that a weakness of our defensive structure? Not sure. In both those games we had a lot more scores but just did not convert and they hardly missed. That said, our strategy in offence is becoming too predictable and we should look to attack a bit more off half back, particularly from kick ins. Rivers was all on his own a few times on the open side for kick ins and was not used. I also think we are too conservative with our entries when kicking into a crowded forward 50 and would like to see us look to switch and/or kick it more central rather than deep into the pocket. The team has not had much practice coming from behind this year and has not been able to adjust from the rigidity of the game plan to attack mode. Rather than a complete change in tactics (as is currently required when we need to come from behind) I would prefer to see us tweak Plan A to be a bit more attacking.

We kick to the pockets too often, particularly when Gawn is in the forward line and its crowded. I know this exposes us to goals on the counter attack but it’s costing us. Plus Spargo has no range, Petracca is hit or miss, Kossie is missing too many, Oliver can’t kick straight and TMac has gone a bit cold.

My gut feel is that 'playing too safe' is a bit of an illusion and that we probably err on being too aggressive rather than too conservative. (Although our balance is very good.) I feel the only times we have been 'too safe' is because: a) we have not won enough clean contests on the wing; b) had to hold up due to being outnumbered ahead; or c) we have made skill errors in trying to break the game open. Jackson and TMac are particularly important to this part of our game because they are so good in the air and on the ground. I was not at the Lions game (and you can't see the whole ground from watching on TV) but I think they defended much better in the first half and stymied our attempts when we tried to play on and get overlap or got numbers behind the ball so we had to go slow. In the second half, they turned the ball over and even defended poorly on slow plays and we got overlap going. I would put the turnaround on their inability to sustain the defence for the full game and our handball skills being so good. (Plus we won the centre bounces.)

Great post again. A couple of other points: I am of the view that the pocket entry does not really suit Ben Brown very much. We are usually kicking to a pack of 4+ and he is rarely going to win those. The best chance he will have to kick goals may be from stoppages. We have been ultra impressive in getting handball overlap to break the game open at times this year. But IMO keeping 'speed on the game' and 'getting goals over the back' are really a function of winning clean contests on the wing and the opposition having a full press on. I don't think it is really a decision not to do it at times. Rather it is because we have not won enough wing contests or the opposition has set up to have a goal keeper in place.

Thanks for the detailed reply. I would argue we that we have rarely ever gone to the hot spot with a congested forward 50, so it has not really been tested this year . I am sure it has in previous years though, which is when the percentages were developed. The other question is if we will persist with the same tactics if we go behind. Against GWS and Collingwood we abandoned the game plan in Q4 and in both games we got a bit lost with our tactics. It would be good to have a few games in the back end of the year which are not close (preferably winning by a lot) and we look to be a bit more attacking. We don't want to go behind in a final and not know what to do.

And the Dees coming from the tropics.

Telecast?

Binman, do you think the percentages change enough in our favour to kick it to the hot spot when Max is in the forward line? I think they probably do and we should be a bit bolder with our entry if he is there. The Salem goal versus GWS was something I would like to see more of from us. We went from the wing on a 45-degree angle with two 30m kicks. The risk of going from the wing to CHF with a long kick is high, so going in with two shorter 45-degree kicks is a better strategy. I also think the opposition should know by now that we are 95% going long into the pocket from the wing, so there should be a few holes inboard as they fold back to the pocket and so mixing it up a bit makes sense. The other option to mix it up is to do a full switch from the wing across the middle of the ground, which we never do on a slow play. This is clearly not a percentage play unless we have someone 100% on.

The MCC needs to give priority in the ballot to supporters of the teams in the GF. I realise this is tough as it means that tickets are not released until after the prelim finals.

Melksham was the most impressive today of the MFC players from what I saw. Daw was ver good in the ruck. I reckon he could easily be playing AFL. He hasn’t lost any athleticism from his fall. I reckon he will be a chance in the VFL best and fairest. Lockhart was good. So was Vandenberg. Sparrow was consistent and kicked a 54m bomb. Bowey didn’t get as much of the ball today but is so classy. I love how Hunt is playing but we wouldn’t lose much if they were to switch. Weideman hasn’t found the timing with his marking like last season or even in the vfl earlier this year. Smith will make blunders but is so good at closing to intercept and breaking lines off half back.

He’s a cross between Salem and Hunt in terms of pace and skill. Great balance and makes good decisions. Only issue at AFL will be height. Half back is his spot IMO.

Bowey is too good to be in the VFL. The kid has it all except for height. Will play 200 games.

I assume he will play. He played VFL after being sub vs the Crows.

I don't think I have underestimated what he brought. I said Brown was OK despite not kicking any goals and having very minimal impact to our scoring. (If you look at our goals, you will see he was rarely in the play when we scored.) I want Brown to make us better and we played exceptionally well with him in the side last night. However, we also played brilliantly against Richmond (without either Brown or Weideman), WBD (with Weideman being a minor contributor) and Brisbane (with Weideman being a minor contributor).

I agree with most of that. It is too early to see if Brown makes us better. We need either Brown, Weideman and/or Jackson to take a few high marks and kick straight for the forward line to really take a quantum leap. Brown and Weideman are not great pressure or ground ball players, so they MUST do this to justify selection. My analysis was designed to refute the consensus view that Brown was a key reason we won. Last night Brown was a target and played his role, but he had a minor contribution and virtually nil scoreboard contribution. Posters seem to see what they want to see and are drawing links that are not there IMO.

Yes it does overlook this and Brown had 3 score involvements but they were all behinds. Two of them rushed from his own shots at goal. Score Involvements vs Port 10 TMac, Petracca 6 Fritsch, Gawn, Oliver, Spargo 5 Jackson, Langdon, Pickett 4 Salem 3 Brayshaw, Brown, Hibberd, Hunt, May, Jordon 2 Harmes, ANB 1 Lever, Rivers

Yes Brown had 3 score involvements but they were all behinds. I am not sure if rushed scores are included as Score Involvements, but I am guessing they are and that one SI was when he kicked off the ground early in the game and it was rushed and another SI when his snap from the pocket was also rushed. As I said earlier, Brown was OK but not good. The key to the win was our amazing defence and Petracca, Kossie and TMac starring. IMO there is no clear evidence that we would not have won just as easily had we gone in unchanged. I also reckon TMac was pretty good last week but for his goal kicking. Perhaps the extra rest helped last night? Or maybe he just fluffed his chances against GWS? There is no way of knowing with such a small sample size.

Melbourne Goals vs Port Jackson from a set shot after a high mark. Brown was in the pack but it was kicked on his head and Jackson had the sit. Brown had no impact. (Not sure Brown was even on the ground.) TMac on the run from a Jackson handball. Brown had no impact. Spargo wins a high free and kicks a snap. Brown had no impact. Petracca out the back of the Port press. Port spoiled into the centre of the ground and we got a counterattack goal. Brown had no impact. Kossie long ping. Brown was looking for a handball receive from Fritsch, who fumbled and recovered to give the handball to Pickett, who kicked a ripper. Brown had no impact. Petracca’s snap. Kick long to Brown, who runs under a long ball but draws a contest. Picket gets a touch on the marking contest which spills over the back. Petracca kicks a fantastic snap under pressure. Brown drew his defender and was loosely involved in this one but really this was due to Petracca’s brilliance. Fritsch’s dribbling snap. The ball got out the back of Port’s press after TMac won a beautiful contest and kicked long to Fritsch, who took a juggling mark and snapped on his right foot. Brown had no impact. (Not sure Brown was even on the ground.) Pickett one hand mark and 50m. Oliver wins a clearance at half back and does a one-two with Langdon and kicks long to half forward. TMac and Kossie in the contest and Pickett takes a juggling mark and gets pummelled and wins 50m to the goal square. Brown had no impact. TMac from a mark and set shot after a clean centre clearance. Brown had no impact. TMac snap after a deliberate out of bounds free, he has his kick smothered and gets a handball back and kicks a curling snap. Brown had no impact. Petracca joe the goose. Long kick to Jackson at full forward. Roved by Jordon and Petracca gets rewarded for tremendous gut running. Brown had no impact. (Not sure Brown was even on the ground.) Kossie 50m bomb. Long kick down the line from the wing. Brown was in the area but could not get to the contest. Ball is dropped by Port defenders around Fritsch. Ball spills to Pickett who kicks a ripper. Brown had no impact.

There is no stat for that. BTW were Demonlanders asking the same question when Weideman was in the side? Brown was ok. Not good.

Don't mistake correlation and causation. Our forward line worked well last night because we got out the back of the Port press and Petracca, Kossie and TMac starred. Brown was OK. Not good, but not poor. He had zero goals, 10 possessions and just 3 score involvements. These are not the numbers of a good game for a full forward. He would have had a decent game if he had have held on to the two marks (which both could have been paid) and kicked the snap in the second quarter. Also, Brown replaced Sparrow, who had a big impact against Essendon and he also kicked a goal against GWS.

We could be sitting on a gold mine with Dandenong being our NGA region. The future of the game is African.

My solution is to play Petracca forward 70/30 and less minutes for Gawn. Jordon deserves more game time.

While maintaining the same back 7 is preferable, I really like what Bowey has shown in the VFL. Fast, skilful and courageous. He is good at getting up in the marking contests as well. Also, it as not as if the small back role is as disruptive as changing May, Petty or Lever. In the forward half, I am guessing Ben Brown will come in. However, I don't think the key forwards were the issue on Saturday other than they didn't kick straight. The issues are really our small forwards and centre clearances. I don't think bringing in Brown is necessarily the answer if we are asking him to play under this system. Our ball movement is either very slow and predictable on one side of the ground or quick on the counterattack down the middle or on the open wing. We don't need another tall forward for the slow ball movement because Gawn, TMac and Jackson are so mobile that they can push from contest to contest. For fast ball movement, Fritsch is a good target because he has plenty of space.

Part of that was the poor delivery and shallow entries inside 50 on the weekend. But our small forwards have been unproductive on both sides of the ball for 3 weeks.