Fat Tony

Thanks for the detailed reply. I would argue we that we have rarely ever gone to the hot spot with a congested forward 50, so it has not really been tested this year . I am sure it has in previous years though, which is when the percentages were developed. The other question is if we will persist with the same tactics if we go behind. Against GWS and Collingwood we abandoned the game plan in Q4 and in both games we got a bit lost with our tactics. It would be good to have a few games in the back end of the year which are not close (preferably winning by a lot) and we look to be a bit more attacking. We don't want to go behind in a final and not know what to do.

And the Dees coming from the tropics.

Telecast?

Binman, do you think the percentages change enough in our favour to kick it to the hot spot when Max is in the forward line? I think they probably do and we should be a bit bolder with our entry if he is there. The Salem goal versus GWS was something I would like to see more of from us. We went from the wing on a 45-degree angle with two 30m kicks. The risk of going from the wing to CHF with a long kick is high, so going in with two shorter 45-degree kicks is a better strategy. I also think the opposition should know by now that we are 95% going long into the pocket from the wing, so there should be a few holes inboard as they fold back to the pocket and so mixing it up a bit makes sense. The other option to mix it up is to do a full switch from the wing across the middle of the ground, which we never do on a slow play. This is clearly not a percentage play unless we have someone 100% on.

The MCC needs to give priority in the ballot to supporters of the teams in the GF. I realise this is tough as it means that tickets are not released until after the prelim finals.

Melksham was the most impressive today of the MFC players from what I saw. Daw was ver good in the ruck. I reckon he could easily be playing AFL. He hasn’t lost any athleticism from his fall. I reckon he will be a chance in the VFL best and fairest. Lockhart was good. So was Vandenberg. Sparrow was consistent and kicked a 54m bomb. Bowey didn’t get as much of the ball today but is so classy. I love how Hunt is playing but we wouldn’t lose much if they were to switch. Weideman hasn’t found the timing with his marking like last season or even in the vfl earlier this year. Smith will make blunders but is so good at closing to intercept and breaking lines off half back.

He’s a cross between Salem and Hunt in terms of pace and skill. Great balance and makes good decisions. Only issue at AFL will be height. Half back is his spot IMO.

Bowey is too good to be in the VFL. The kid has it all except for height. Will play 200 games.

I assume he will play. He played VFL after being sub vs the Crows.

I don't think I have underestimated what he brought. I said Brown was OK despite not kicking any goals and having very minimal impact to our scoring. (If you look at our goals, you will see he was rarely in the play when we scored.) I want Brown to make us better and we played exceptionally well with him in the side last night. However, we also played brilliantly against Richmond (without either Brown or Weideman), WBD (with Weideman being a minor contributor) and Brisbane (with Weideman being a minor contributor).

I agree with most of that. It is too early to see if Brown makes us better. We need either Brown, Weideman and/or Jackson to take a few high marks and kick straight for the forward line to really take a quantum leap. Brown and Weideman are not great pressure or ground ball players, so they MUST do this to justify selection. My analysis was designed to refute the consensus view that Brown was a key reason we won. Last night Brown was a target and played his role, but he had a minor contribution and virtually nil scoreboard contribution. Posters seem to see what they want to see and are drawing links that are not there IMO.

Yes it does overlook this and Brown had 3 score involvements but they were all behinds. Two of them rushed from his own shots at goal. Score Involvements vs Port 10 TMac, Petracca 6 Fritsch, Gawn, Oliver, Spargo 5 Jackson, Langdon, Pickett 4 Salem 3 Brayshaw, Brown, Hibberd, Hunt, May, Jordon 2 Harmes, ANB 1 Lever, Rivers

Yes Brown had 3 score involvements but they were all behinds. I am not sure if rushed scores are included as Score Involvements, but I am guessing they are and that one SI was when he kicked off the ground early in the game and it was rushed and another SI when his snap from the pocket was also rushed. As I said earlier, Brown was OK but not good. The key to the win was our amazing defence and Petracca, Kossie and TMac starring. IMO there is no clear evidence that we would not have won just as easily had we gone in unchanged. I also reckon TMac was pretty good last week but for his goal kicking. Perhaps the extra rest helped last night? Or maybe he just fluffed his chances against GWS? There is no way of knowing with such a small sample size.

Melbourne Goals vs Port Jackson from a set shot after a high mark. Brown was in the pack but it was kicked on his head and Jackson had the sit. Brown had no impact. (Not sure Brown was even on the ground.) TMac on the run from a Jackson handball. Brown had no impact. Spargo wins a high free and kicks a snap. Brown had no impact. Petracca out the back of the Port press. Port spoiled into the centre of the ground and we got a counterattack goal. Brown had no impact. Kossie long ping. Brown was looking for a handball receive from Fritsch, who fumbled and recovered to give the handball to Pickett, who kicked a ripper. Brown had no impact. Petracca’s snap. Kick long to Brown, who runs under a long ball but draws a contest. Picket gets a touch on the marking contest which spills over the back. Petracca kicks a fantastic snap under pressure. Brown drew his defender and was loosely involved in this one but really this was due to Petracca’s brilliance. Fritsch’s dribbling snap. The ball got out the back of Port’s press after TMac won a beautiful contest and kicked long to Fritsch, who took a juggling mark and snapped on his right foot. Brown had no impact. (Not sure Brown was even on the ground.) Pickett one hand mark and 50m. Oliver wins a clearance at half back and does a one-two with Langdon and kicks long to half forward. TMac and Kossie in the contest and Pickett takes a juggling mark and gets pummelled and wins 50m to the goal square. Brown had no impact. TMac from a mark and set shot after a clean centre clearance. Brown had no impact. TMac snap after a deliberate out of bounds free, he has his kick smothered and gets a handball back and kicks a curling snap. Brown had no impact. Petracca joe the goose. Long kick to Jackson at full forward. Roved by Jordon and Petracca gets rewarded for tremendous gut running. Brown had no impact. (Not sure Brown was even on the ground.) Kossie 50m bomb. Long kick down the line from the wing. Brown was in the area but could not get to the contest. Ball is dropped by Port defenders around Fritsch. Ball spills to Pickett who kicks a ripper. Brown had no impact.

There is no stat for that. BTW were Demonlanders asking the same question when Weideman was in the side? Brown was ok. Not good.

Don't mistake correlation and causation. Our forward line worked well last night because we got out the back of the Port press and Petracca, Kossie and TMac starred. Brown was OK. Not good, but not poor. He had zero goals, 10 possessions and just 3 score involvements. These are not the numbers of a good game for a full forward. He would have had a decent game if he had have held on to the two marks (which both could have been paid) and kicked the snap in the second quarter. Also, Brown replaced Sparrow, who had a big impact against Essendon and he also kicked a goal against GWS.

We could be sitting on a gold mine with Dandenong being our NGA region. The future of the game is African.

My solution is to play Petracca forward 70/30 and less minutes for Gawn. Jordon deserves more game time.

While maintaining the same back 7 is preferable, I really like what Bowey has shown in the VFL. Fast, skilful and courageous. He is good at getting up in the marking contests as well. Also, it as not as if the small back role is as disruptive as changing May, Petty or Lever. In the forward half, I am guessing Ben Brown will come in. However, I don't think the key forwards were the issue on Saturday other than they didn't kick straight. The issues are really our small forwards and centre clearances. I don't think bringing in Brown is necessarily the answer if we are asking him to play under this system. Our ball movement is either very slow and predictable on one side of the ground or quick on the counterattack down the middle or on the open wing. We don't need another tall forward for the slow ball movement because Gawn, TMac and Jackson are so mobile that they can push from contest to contest. For fast ball movement, Fritsch is a good target because he has plenty of space.

Part of that was the poor delivery and shallow entries inside 50 on the weekend. But our small forwards have been unproductive on both sides of the ball for 3 weeks.

I think our biggest issues at the moment are 1) centre clearances and 2) our small forwards are giving us nothing. I like Hunt as a forward option at this time because he can give us a bit more spark than Spargo or Pickett, who are both dreadfully out of form. He is better in the air than both and a longer, better set shot than both. While Hunt made some bad errors vs GWS in Q4, he almost changed the game in our favour. This is not an ideal change given Hunt has been very good down back, but we don't have much by the way of small forwards at the moment. Chandler and Bedford did not have great VFL games. The other reason to suggest Hunt forward is that we have other players who can play at half back in Bowey (who looks a future 200 gamer), Jordon and Brayshaw (not preferred). Bowey looks excellent in the VFL and, if he comes in, we might not lose much in defence. He is a better kick than Hunt is but not as strong.

We need to make a few changes given the 5 day turnaround. We lost games last year on short breaks and imo Goodwin made the mistake of not injecting enough fresh legs. I would like to see Hunt play forward and Bowey debut with Spargo out. The kid is classy. Hunt is a different option to Spargo in that he is more a lead mark forward. I think this is something we lack as our small forwards are all ineffective in the air. Bringing in Brown only makes sense if we are more direct with our ball movement. It also means Gawn needs to play 15% less game time. These are bigger changes than most fans realise and would require a big adjustment. I think an in form Weideman is a better fit given the way we play and how Fritsch is used. Petracca should be spending more time forward.

We didn’t know the fixture for R17 was going to have a 5 day break when the team was selected.

We did pretty well to get so close given how badly we performed at centre clearances and stoppages, how poor our kicking for goal was and how inefficient Petracca, Oliver and Viney were by foot. Despite losing the clearances by 15 and the midfield being so poor with kicking, we had more inside 50s, 4 more marks inside 50 and 1 more scores. The game plan is ultra defensive and we get lot of our scores from interceptions in the middle of the ground. GWS were disciplined not to give us these. The plan needs to be a bit more flexible to go through the corridor and use the open wing. Particularly if we bring in another key forward. The biggest concerns are our centre clearances and the output of the small forwards. While Hunt made bad errors in the final quarter, at least he gave a spark that Pickett and Spargo couldn’t provide. I would think about playing Hunt forward in place of Spargo and bringing in Bowey. In the centre we need to try to surge forward and not be so cute. Ben Brown not being selected was not the reason we lost. It was our midfield and execution in front of goal. Fritsch was good in the deep forward role but got poor delivery/supply.

We were pathetic on the short breaks last year. Time for redemption.