Everything posted by Fat Tony
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COVID & AFL 2021
There was no criticism at the time because it was not told to the Australian public. The decision not to order the Pfizer vaccine on 10 July 2020 was not known until 15 April 2021 when it was revealed by the ABC's Dr Norman Swan. The decision not to order the Pfizer vaccine (40m x $19 = $760m) will go down as one of the greatest government blunders ever.
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CHANGES: Rd 15 vs Essendon
We definitely could go smaller in the forward line if Weideman goes out. But we should go more like for like IMO i.e. more of a forward like Melksham or Chandler. My thinking is that we have been playing with fewer numbers around the ball at stoppages this year, so we don't need as many midfielders. If the opposition push up a forward at the the stoppages, we are happy to leave Salem or Lever as loose defenders, so even if we lose the clearances we have structure behind the ball to win it back. If we are even numbered at the stoppages, we rely on Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Viney, Harmes and Jordon to dominate the clearances. I think Sparrow is a midfielder only at this stage. He lacks forward craft and so he is the most obvious out for Viney.
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TICKETING: Rd 15 vs Essendon
While I really feel for the couples who have their weddings postponed, on the flip side, for many it could be viewed as a stay of execution.
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TICKETING: Rd 15 vs Essendon
https://twitter.com/cstanaway/status/1407122975128621059?s=20 Clint Stanaway indicating crowd capacity could be as high as 50%.
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CHANGES: Rd 15 vs Essendon
I still favour Weideman over Ben Brown but potentially neither are in our best side. That said, Weideman has been disappointing in the last three weeks. If he is going to get such few chances, he needs to convert in front of goal at 70%+. To be fair though, the games have been on smaller grounds meaning he has not had many one-on-one chances and he has had strong direct opponents the last two weeks in Harris-Andrews and Moore. I am just not convinced Ben Brown fits alongside our resting ruck. With Jackson in the side and Gawn's endurance, I think Gawn needs to be able to play as a forward for 20-30% of the game. (There are times we benefit from Jackson's energy around the ball.) And our pressure is non-existent with Brown and Gawn in the forward line. Viney comes in for Sparrow for mine. Sparrow was excellent against the Lions but just gets caught holding the ball too often. Melksham for Weideman would be the other change worth considering but only if we want to make a structural change. That said, Weideman would be expected to perform better on the MCG against a lesser defender.
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TICKETING: Rd 15 vs Essendon
The government overreach on outdoor activities has been ridiculous.
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Spirit of the Game
Viney only slowed because the ball had bounced into Lynch's hands. For Mackay, the ball was in dispute and he had every right to attack it. Not a big difference at all in my view.
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Spirit of the Game
I see a lot of the Jack Viney incident in the Mackay. Both players going for a ground ball and collision being inevitable due to the bounce of the ball and the proximity of the two players going for it. You can't have a 360 degree sport where possession is able to be contested and then completely avoid these types of incidents. This could have even happened in basketball, which is a "non-contact" sport with a round ball. On Mackay's speed being too fast, this is ridiculous. There is no rule about running too fast. And Mackay was not to know how the ball would bounce. It was just unlucky it landed in the middle of the two players after bouncing twice. Had the ball landed on the end, it could have landed straight in Mackay's hands. A suspension would change nothing in the way players attack the ball and would be a gross misjustice. Players like Selwood, Oliver and Judd are lauded for the speed in which they attack the ground ball. They are not going to stop and there will inevitably be another incident. There is no point sending a message if only a few players will hear it and even if they do, they will be confused as to what they should do. While I don't think you can ever completely reduce collisions in the game, the only way I can really see that they could be reduced is if they reduce the number of players on the field. The other thing to note is that by banning the bump, it increases the potential for head on head clashes.
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2021 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch
We have someone’s second round pick I think.
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2021 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch
On the Road to the Draft podcast, Cal Twomey said he felt Mac Andrew was pretty likely to get bid on inside the top 20.
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Trade Targets
Older players at clubs outside the premiership window should be targets. Players like Sidebottom, Breust and Seedsman would give us some outside class and complement our strengths.
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Blues Blues
I think an internal review made sense for us. We did not have any viable option to change senior coach as Goodwin had 2 years left and sacking him would have left us no money in the soft cap to hire a new coach. And it would have reflected poorly on the Board to sack Goodwin after extending his contract. You don't have an external review if you already know the what answer needs to be. Teague only has one year left, so they probably can change if they find a better option. If I was Carlton, I would seriously consider making a change. The Blues list is pretty good and their defensive system is very poor.
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2021 Injury List
Mostly luck I reckon. Each club spends $6m on getting 45 players up and running and the intel is shared across the league as staff come and go.
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2021 Injury List
According to the report, we will have no injuries other than the 3 ACL injuries after the bye.
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Rating 2021 team Against 1998, 2000 & 2018
The finals system now is the same as in 2000. We finished 3rd that year and won the qualifying final.
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POSTGAME: Rd 12 vs Brisbane
I think you are correct to say that Oliver has been a bit more willing to hold his position in the contest this year and wait for other players to get him the ball. The other players are also backing him in when it is his turn to go and so he isn't competing against our own side as much. Still, I this is only a part of his improvement. I think the clarity of our game plan has really helped Oliver this year and while his clanger and turnover stats are similar to his career, it doesn't feel like he hast had as many bad turnovers that have cost us goals. In our "slow" play around the Brayshaw boundary, the rigidity of the game plan means he is being asked to kick long to tall targets on the boundary unless there is something obvious on. In previous years, we were a bit more central in our ball movement and he would win more ball in "slow" play in the corridor, where he would look to go shorter with his kicks to a free man. This meant that some of his poor kicking was costly as we were ill prepared for a turnover. This really comes through in the distance gained statistic, where he is averaging 426m this year versus 299m over his career. Some of this is coming from run, but I think most is actually mostly from having more long kicks to contests in the back half. We are also playing a taller side this year which means that he always has a long option. In our "fast" play, when we are counter attacking, he is able to use his pace and power and he usually makes good decisions.
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Rating 2021 team Against 1998, 2000 & 2018
I just ran a little analysis on the squiggle site to see how the side stacks up against our previous sides. According to this analysis, this is the best side we have had. Year Attack Defence Average 1994 61.7 59.5 60.6 1998 60.1 59.5 59.8 2000 67.4 53.9 60.7 2004 (R18) 62.6 60.3 61.5 2018 62.9 61.8 62.4 2021 (R12) 57.2 69.2 63.2
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Rating 2021 team Against 1998, 2000 & 2018
I actually think he best patch I have seen us play was in 2018 when we won 20 odd quarters in a row. Lever and Hogan getting injured might have cost us at top 4 finish and a real chance to win it that year. Our performance against the Cats in the finals was good enough to beat anyone and we needed the week off and home ground advantage to win the flag. This year we have been playing a much more defensive game plan which is focused on minimising our turnovers and playing the boundary so that if we do turn it over we are set with defensive cover. We have only kicked 5 goals in a quarter 5 times this season, so I actually think we have another gear to get to offensively. We also can do better in the centre bounces given we should be the best in the comp with Gawn, Oliver, Petracca and Viney.
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CHANGES: Rd 13 vs Collingwood
Minimal changes for me. Langdon obviously comes in. Salem would benefit from 2 weeks rest. This might be a good opportunity to get his body right for the rest of the year. He is only just going at the moment. Melksham, Sparrow and Weideman would be closest to the fringe. Weideman was disappointing against the Lions but Harris-Andrews is an excellent defender. He needs to take his chances. I still want us to persevere.
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POSTGAME: Rd 12 vs Brisbane
Great post. This is certainly correct in the stoppages but we need to do much better in the centre clearances. When we get territory from centre bounce we either get a score and/or it gives us the chance to set up our defensive grid. I think our mids got first hands on the ball in the centre bounce a lot last night after the ruck contest but then our mids got hustled out of the clearance. I love the tactic of Max grabbing the ball because it is almost fail proof. Otherwise I think we would be better off generally with Max hitting forwards in the centre bounce and getting the surge game going. On another point, our defensive setups at D50 boundary throw ins was a bit wanting and they got goals from sharking our hits twice. Jackson also needs to think about how he attacks these contests, as his lack of strength leaves him open to his opposite number taking the ball.
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GAMEDAY: Rd 12 vs Brisbane
Strangle the life out of them Demons!
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Welcome back to Demonland: Tayla Harris
Good fit for us on field. We could do with a stronger full forward.
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Where will we play the Lions?
It is ridiculous that they aren’t allowing AFL players who are tested regularly to play at Alice this week. And at the same time they are asking for a new team. All take, no give.
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WELCOME TO DEMONLAND: DANIEL TURNER
Looks like Jeremy Cameron. Hopefully he plays like him.
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Where will we play the Lions?
NT want their own AFL team but won’t let us play this Friday. What a joke!