Fat Tony

Drafting for needs makes a bit of sense after the top few picks because the talent pool is skewed and flattens off. That said, each recruiting team has emphasis on different things, so every club thinks they picked up a player who was better (or at least worthy) of their pick. Hawthorn would only look at good kicks in the late 2000s. The Tigers have favoured speed and pressure. We have favoured players who could win contested ball. Howes and Van Rooyen were almost certainly higher on our draft board than selected. I think we are in a bit of a unique position with our inside midfield, ruck and defensive talent being so strong. It meant that only outside midfielders and forwards would improve our best side.

The top 20 picks receive $90,000 base, picks 21-40 a base of $82,500 and 40+ receive a base of $80,000. He does not look 77kg. Even if he takes 2 years to build an AFL body, he will still be ahead of his father in terms of age to play his first game.

I think the first round salaries are a bit higher. Taj will need to put on a lot of muscle by the look of it and is a long way off it in terms of size. Hopefully he has a few more cms of growth as well.

The best midfielders are fairly short.

Looks a good pick up. Could be Fritsch II. Fits our needs pretty well and looks versatile.

Are we able to take a regular Rookie selection this year? Or is the list/cap full? Or are we just saving a spot for mid season? Who are the best players left undrafted?

Van Rooyen looks more likely to be a key defender at AFL level given his athletic profile and size. 194cm without great speed or endurance or leap. Who is the best current comparison as a AFL forward? Tex Walker? If he becomes a defender, hopefully he can turn into a Petty or Hurley type player.

To get real value out of the draft we should consider trading out of #17/19 to GCS who have a stack of future picks. They need to take another pick with Greenwood heading to North. I know everyone wants to open their Christmas presents early, but there is a price for that. Look at what GWS managed to receive by trading out of a similar pick last year. If GCS were to offer the GCS F1 for #17/19 plus Mel F2 we should consider it. Or #17/19 for 2xF2 & 2xF3. If we do go to the draft, I would prefer it we go for a midfielder or small forward with our first pick. I think we have shown that we can recruit good/great key position players via trades and I think Weideman can still make it with a bit of luck. Also, Jackson is such a unique player that he (and Gawn) enables us flexibility to play a forward line with one or two other talls.

Robbo kicked 419 goals and is fourth on the all time goal kicking list and only 7 behind Garry Lyon. He was the only 24 since 1964 to win a B&F (I think). I didn't see Ross Dillon play but Robbo has a much better CV for Melbourne.

Hawthorn looked dead in 1990. Carlton looked dead in 1994. Geelong looked dead in 2010.

Think we’ll be close or be able to swap a future fourth rounder to make it work. It will also depend on where Woewodin goes. I don’t think it matters that much if we get pushed back a pick or two next year anyway given we have already traded out of the first round.

Love how the skipper has used his first born child to put the heat on Clarry to sign a contract extension.

I highly doubt we would take him at pick 17->19. If he is still there we will hope he slides an extra pick to pick 21 and we get him for a discount.

The season opener should always be the top two Victorian sides at the MCG.

The Norm Smith Curse is over. The Clarkson Curse has begun. Long live the Clarkson Curse!

Looks identical to Shane!

Gawn was AA in his seventh season. English has played only five.

Baker was lucky to get a new contract IMO.

He went at #24 and I would think he’s worth about the same but it depends on the depth of the draft pool. Could be worth #15-30.

Bobby Hill looks a player to me and fits our needs. I would be keen but he’s probably worth a late first round or second round pick.

The real key to winning an AFL flag is to have players which are outperforming their salaries. Grundy is a top 20 player in the competition but is paid like top 5 and has a negative value contract. Buddy is one of the greatest players ever but now has a negative value contract. With free agency and player mobility being at an all time high, it makes less sense to take a skinny ruckman, particularly one which will take 3 years to become an AFL player and 8 years to reach his physical peak. Andrew might become one of the best players in the draft, but there is a decent chance that the club that drafts him is not the one that bares the fruit. Look at Tim English for the Bulldogs. He is looking like one of the best players in his draft and might take the mantle off Max Gawn. (English has shown a lot more than Gawn did in his early years and is now being paid a decent wage on potential.) But he has been badly exposed in two finals campaigns and the Dogs have missed out on flags, in part, due to their ruck weakness. Andrew strikes me as a poor investment for an early pick in the draft. He will take a long time to develop and then, if all goes well and he stays and his club and hits his peak, he would command a high wage. That all said, it will only take one club to pick him inside the top 20 and we will miss out here.

The issue with Andrew is he is so skinny. His profile says 70kg, which is at least 2 years from being strong enough for AFL. He doesn’t have the foot skills of Cox, so he probably won’t be able to play as a winger. It has taken Aliir till 27 to reach his peak and he was 90kg when drafted.

Isn't our future third embargoed as we have traded our future first?

The trade has cost us value in the range of pick #4-65 to shift the pick forward, but assuming we finish in the top 8, the cost is worth #40-65. One side advantage of holding a pick inside 20 is it slightly increases the chance of Andrew falling out to 21. (We won't get him otherwise.) We have been doing draft swaps which look bad in terms of value but then nailing the draft (Pickett and Bowey). It would be a terrible strategy if Taylor and co were not so successful.

I know Cerra has more potential, but Dunstan could be as good for us over the next two years and cost us nothing in terms of picks and less in cap space. Statistically they were very similar in 2021. Name Adam Cerra Luke Dunstan Team Fremantle St Kilda Origin Eastern Ranges Woodville West Torrens Date of Birth October 7, 1999 January 29, 1995 Age 21yr 11mth 26yr 8mth Height 188cm 185cm Weight 84kg 84kg Games 18 12 Kicks 13.9 14.1 Handballs 9.2 11.2 Disposals 23.1 25.2 Marks 5.2 4.2 Goals 0.3 0.1 Behinds 0.6 0.3 Tackles 2.6 4.9 Hitouts 0 0 Inside 50s 5 5 Goal Assists 0.8 0.2 Frees For 1.2 1.5 Frees Against 0.7 1.6 Contested Possessions 8 11.2 Uncontested Possessions 15.3 13.9 Effective Disposals 15.9 16.7 Disposal Efficiency % 68.80% 66.30% Clangers 3.3 4.2 Contested Marks 0.1 0 Marks Inside 50 0.4 0.2 Clearances 3.6 5.8 Rebound 50s 1.6 0.9 One Percenters 1.3 1.5 Bounces 0.1 0 Time On Ground % 76.1 82.7 Centre Clearances 1.1 2 Stoppage Clearances 2.4 3.8 Score Involvements 5.3 4.5 Metres Gained 407.3 366.6 Turnovers 4.3 5.4 Intercepts 2.8 3.8 Tackles Inside 50 0.3 0.7 AFL Fantasy Score 87.3 94.6 Supercoach Score 90.1 92.2