Fat Tony

I think our biggest issues at the moment are 1) centre clearances and 2) our small forwards are giving us nothing. I like Hunt as a forward option at this time because he can give us a bit more spark than Spargo or Pickett, who are both dreadfully out of form. He is better in the air than both and a longer, better set shot than both. While Hunt made some bad errors vs GWS in Q4, he almost changed the game in our favour. This is not an ideal change given Hunt has been very good down back, but we don't have much by the way of small forwards at the moment. Chandler and Bedford did not have great VFL games. The other reason to suggest Hunt forward is that we have other players who can play at half back in Bowey (who looks a future 200 gamer), Jordon and Brayshaw (not preferred). Bowey looks excellent in the VFL and, if he comes in, we might not lose much in defence. He is a better kick than Hunt is but not as strong.

We need to make a few changes given the 5 day turnaround. We lost games last year on short breaks and imo Goodwin made the mistake of not injecting enough fresh legs. I would like to see Hunt play forward and Bowey debut with Spargo out. The kid is classy. Hunt is a different option to Spargo in that he is more a lead mark forward. I think this is something we lack as our small forwards are all ineffective in the air. Bringing in Brown only makes sense if we are more direct with our ball movement. It also means Gawn needs to play 15% less game time. These are bigger changes than most fans realise and would require a big adjustment. I think an in form Weideman is a better fit given the way we play and how Fritsch is used. Petracca should be spending more time forward.

We didn’t know the fixture for R17 was going to have a 5 day break when the team was selected.

We did pretty well to get so close given how badly we performed at centre clearances and stoppages, how poor our kicking for goal was and how inefficient Petracca, Oliver and Viney were by foot. Despite losing the clearances by 15 and the midfield being so poor with kicking, we had more inside 50s, 4 more marks inside 50 and 1 more scores. The game plan is ultra defensive and we get lot of our scores from interceptions in the middle of the ground. GWS were disciplined not to give us these. The plan needs to be a bit more flexible to go through the corridor and use the open wing. Particularly if we bring in another key forward. The biggest concerns are our centre clearances and the output of the small forwards. While Hunt made bad errors in the final quarter, at least he gave a spark that Pickett and Spargo couldn’t provide. I would think about playing Hunt forward in place of Spargo and bringing in Bowey. In the centre we need to try to surge forward and not be so cute. Ben Brown not being selected was not the reason we lost. It was our midfield and execution in front of goal. Fritsch was good in the deep forward role but got poor delivery/supply.

We were pathetic on the short breaks last year. Time for redemption.

Pretty sensible selection for mine. There would not have been the Demonland push for Ben Brown to come in had we kicked straight last week. And while Brown was solid in the VFL, 5 goals flattered his performance a little bit IMO. Moreover, Sparrow was the player mostly likely in the gun and he was very good last week in limited game time. My feel is that in order for Brown or Weideman to force their way up from the VFL, they really need to be taking some big high pack marks , covering a lot of kilometres and kicking straight. Without that trifecta they are both liabilities.

I think a big part of the reason we are kicking few goals from contested marks is our game plan on a slow play to kick long into the pocket. This is a defensive move to prevent getting hurt on the turnover. But it means that even when we do get a mark out of Jackson, Gawn or McDonald, they are kicking from a difficult spot. We get most of our goals from opposition turnover on the counterattack and these come in general play or from uncontested marks.

Correct. Ben Brown would have to play the role Fritsch is currently playing. Fritsch could play another role further up the ground, but including Brown and moving Fritsch results in a significant net reduction in team pressure because one of our smaller forwards is left out. Harmes is not really at risk at the moment IMO. He is playing too well.

Jetta started on Greene but was beaten. Then May went to him and he was better but he was beaten a few times on the ground. 99% sure Hibberd will play on him this week.

Fritsch averages 11.9 pressure acts this year. He is almost on target for a 50 goal regular season. Ben Brown averages 5.3 pressure acts for his career. Brown is a better player for the 5 instances in a game when the ball is kicked to his advantage. The rest of the game (99%) he is not.

Fritsch is our best goal kicker. Say no to drugs.

We had 23 scoring shots versus Essendon and only 22 versus the Bulldogs. The difference is all conversion. With the current forward mix, we are undefeated, including wins against the Bombers, Cats, Tigers, Dockers, Saints and GWS. Brown kicked 5 goals in the VFL and he was good and he moved a little bit better but it was not a dominant display by any means. He got 2 goals from lead up marks, one soccer off the ground when the ball fell over the back, another when the ball fell over the back in the goal square and one Joe the Goose. We all want Brown (or Weideman) to be the answer and take our forward line to the next level but the difference in game style and pressure between VFL and AFL is massive and I am sceptical if Brown's overall package makes us better. He might make us a goal better in offence but 2 goals worse in defence.

You are correct that they are not mutually exclusive. My concerns with Brown are what adding him to the side does to our forward pressure. It only makes sense to me if we want Gawn and Jackson to play less game time. Also, I think Sparrow would be stiff to be dropped. He only played 50% of game time on Saturday. In terms of Supercoach points per minute, he was ranked 6th in terms of effectiveness. (FYI the top rankings were Jordon, Salem, Oliver, Lever, Sparrow).

I am sure our cap is full to the brink. In saying that, I think forwards and outside midfielders are the most needed from an MFC list perspective. Here is a list of players I would think about: Charlie Curnow would be a player who could be anything and could be convinced in the need for a fresh start. It would be a risky move but could be a risk worth taking. The Saints seem to be keen on Ben King and so Tim Membrey could be potentially on the move. Breust is still a clever player who would add to our side. Gunston would be worth considering. Sidebottom is a player who the Pies might be willing to let go for the right pick. De Goey is another player the Pies may look to let go for cap reasons. Seedsman is a very good player. Ed Richards is finally getting an AFL game but would suit our side.

I like Breust as a target and also think we should be going for players who are deadly in front of goal. But you are being a bit harsh on your list. Fritsch has kicked 28.13 this year. He was ordinary last year but he has been excellent this year. Weideman kicked 19.8 last year and he has had the yips this year. He has kicked 49.29 for his career. Pickett and Jackson are second year players and don't appear to have fundamental techincal flaws. We should be confident that they will be at least average in front of goal. Gawn will always be 50/50.

I know there is a push for Ben Brown to come in, but I think the best solution to bolster our forward line is to play Petracca as a forward 65/35. I think he should continue to attend centre bounces and drift forward like Martin and Stringer. He is the best forward out of the midfield group and seems to have fixed his goal kicking woes. While this will weaken our midfield to some extent, I feel we have good cover in the guts with Oliver, Harmes, Viney, Jordon and Sparrow strong enough to win clearances.

We are 42% from the set shot and 46% from general play. We are slightly below the expected score given the difficulty of our shots. https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting

My post was just that he might pull up sore given he has not played for so long. I would not be surprised if he misses. You can only do so much work to prepare for a game of AFL football and he looked to be very tired at the end of the game on Saturday.

Usually we are on the same page 55 but not this time. Fritsch is very frustrating but is also our most productive forward. Brown's biggest hurdle is that Max is spending around 30% of the game forward at the moment and we can't ever have both Gawn and Brown in the same forward line. I am also not sure we need another big marking target. Our game plan is very structured for slow ball movement situations and we look to "narrow" the ground by going along the boundary. Because TMac and Jackson are so mobile, they are generally able to cover enough territory to get to the next contest in time if we win the first one. (Watch how often they are in one contest and we take a mark or get a free and then they are the long target the next time.) On the counter attack, Fritsch's mobility is much more valuable than Brown's marking. Brown/Weideman would get more opportunities if we were willing to use the fat side of the ground, but this is taboo and our strategy would need to change to allow this. The reason we are so cautious is that we are concerned about getting opened up on the counter attack. The defensive running of the midfield and wingers, May and Lever and the cautious way we are moving the ball is why our defence is so strong.

Viney played his first game for 9 weeks. If he is right to go, he is right to go. But I would be surprised if he isn't sore. My feeling is that we will need to nurse him through this year and particularly the next few weeks. It is really about getting him in tip top shape for September.

Obviously there won't be an issue with crowd numbers assuming no more outbreaks. Does anyone have information about sale times? MCC and other members?

No change for me with Petracca spending more time forward after the centre bounces. Viney could potentially need a week off and could be the sub with Jones coming into the 22.

My take: Jones was exceptional. Definitely the closest small to the AFL 22. Ben Brown was good but I am still not convinced he would add to the side. Jackson and TMac are so much more mobile. Weideman is badly out of form and had lost confidence in his goal kicking. Bowey would be playing AFL at most clubs. Classy and quick. Bailey Laurie will need to get a lot fitter to be an AFL player. Looked a bit overweight and lacked pace.

Viney had 34 pressure acts vs Essendon. Only Jordon vs Carlton (37) has had more all year.

Why not stay in contention forever like the Cats?