old55

I think it's a mistake not playing Grundy - Goldstein and Xerri physically will work over Max and JVR to their detriment.

I think Brodie plays this week. North, Carlton and Hawthorn each run two rucks. Despite Max's great form and high gametime, I don't think we want to [censored] him solo over that period. In the last 3 weeks when he has gone solo, it has been against opposition with a solo ruck. After Hawthorn, I think it depends. Selection will be fascinating.

We're going to have to beat Collingwood at the MCG somewhere along the line in the finals to win the flag, and FWIW I think we're the only team that can do it. I'd probably prefer it's early rather than late, I'm not sure I'm ready for a Melbourne vs Collingwood GF.

My advice is, avoid any suggestion of hand-to-hand combat

I think vs North and Carlton, who both play two rucks, we can go with both and get the "in game rest".

I think the Pies talent stacks up pretty well against ours. Let's start in the backline: Moore = May Howe = Lever Murphy = Tomlinson Maynard = Rivers Noble = Bowey Markov < Salem Quaynor (currently) > McVee

Michael Hibberd.

It's really a "disposal" backwards a "possession" is something different: Disposal: Legally getting rid of the ball, via a handball or kick. Possession: When a player grabs the ball with a reasonable amount of time to dispose of it. Includes groundball-gets, marks, handball receives, effective contested knock-ons and frees for. And there's a related important distinction between a "first possession" and a "clearance" First Possession: The initial possession that follows a stoppage, including a looseball-get, hardball-get, intended ball-get (gather), free kick or ground kick. Clearance: Credited to the player who has the first effective disposal in a chain that clears the stoppage area, or an ineffective kick or clanger kick that clears the stoppage area.

Open wide ... Clearance: Credited to the player who has the first effective disposal in a chain that clears the stoppage area, or an ineffective kick or clanger kick that clears the stoppage area.

I got the disposals and contested on the same site Footywre, e.g.: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_rankings?year=2023&rt=LA&pt=&st=CP&mg=1

https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ Turnover: Losing possession to the opposition in general play. General play excludes events that happen between a stoppage and the clearance. Clanger: An error made by a player resulting in a negative result for his side. Disposal clangers are any kick or handball that directly turns the ball over to the opposition. Frees and 50-metre penalties against, No Pressure Errors, Dropped Marks and Debits are all included in clangers.

I added some possessions data to the post, I think that's relevant. Look overall I'm a fan, gotta take the good with the bad. If he turned it over less he's be a star ...

They're available here: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=10918&advv=Y#t2 Here's some more information: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_rankings?year=2023&rt=LA&pt=&st=TO&mg=1 I think turnovers per possession and per contested possession are important to consider too though. Oliver 6 TO, 33 Possessions (5.5 per TO), 15.7 Contested (2.62 per TO) Petracca 5.63, 28.42 (5.05 per TO), 13.84 (2.46 per TO) ANB 4, 15.26 (3.82 per TO), 5.95 (1.49 per TO) ANB does turn it over at a pretty high rate.

And then next year and the year after?

I think there's no doubt that the FD prefer May, Petty, Lever in the backline and the hope was that when Ben Brown completed his "mini-pre-season" he'd be able to come back and perform effectively. That's why Petty went back and Tomlinson went out, not because we "abandoned the idea of Petty forward". But it clearly didn't work, and Tomlinson showed some form, so the Petty-forward option with Tomlinson-back was the best card we had to play. Goodwin has repeatedly said we're open to trying different things to improve.

Buddy was an absolute superstar but we were spared against us. https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/L/Lance_Franklin.html#opp

I think you imagined this, his record against us was very modest.

My more detailed plan is above, RIF

Agree, he's so great to watch and impeccably fair. He doesn't complain to umpires and he is a very clean player. There was one incident in the last quarter where, I think it was, Jack Viney tackled by multiple Richmond players and ended up on his back and Dusty genuinely accidentally fell over the top of Jack's upper body, it would have been so easy to "accidentally" land on Jack's head with his knees - many, many players would have done it - but Dusty took care to avoid that contact. He's a true champion!

Carlton is playing very well but I think the good thing about having them to come, is that they play a similar style to us but we're better at it. It's a different proposition against Collingwood, Brisbane and Adelaide where it's two different systems pitted against each other.

Magnificent success of the Petty, JVR, Melksham combination - that has to continue for the foreseeable future until Fritsch returns, but then I'm firmly in the Fritsch OR Melksham camp because of the associated forward pressure. I'm firmly in the three tall defenders camp too, so that means it's Tomlinson or Smith. I'm leaning towards Smith for his athleticism which complements May, who has lost his and, Lever who can lumber. That means it's McVee vs Hibberd IMO. But did anyone else think that it appeared that Salem can't bend down? He took some nice marks and made some nice plays towards the end of the game but there was at least one ground ball where he starkly tried to soccer it instead of bending down. I feel he has an injury and that may open a spot for Hibberd, at least temporarily. Alright, now to the major thesis, like Ulysses' sailors, I'm sticking to my line that the reason Max has been able to dominate solo for 3 matches is because Grundy has lessened his load throughout the season. I think it's seductive to hear the sirens' call that we go with him solo for the run in. but I remain doubtful that he can sustain the rage. In the next two weeks we have North (Goldstein and Xerri) and Carlton (Pittonet and TDK) who play two rucks, in addition Casey have the bye, I'm pretty sure the plan will have been to bring Grundy back against North and that's what I think we should do. He needs to come in for a small, most likely Woewodin, and that will place more load on our midfield which isn't ideal. Sparrow for JJ will help. I thought Harmes was pretty good apart from his two sprayed shots early and I'd retain him and maximise his minutes against North. I'd bring Smith into the team for Tomlinson, and go with a mid as sub to enable us to spread the midfield load that results from the loss of a small. In: Grundy, Smith, Sparrow Out: Woewodin, Tomlinson, JJ Sub: JJ The thesis gets interesting at the pointy end though. We may decide that there comes a point where we go with Max solo again at the crunch, and Grundy is sacrificed, like a lead-out rider in the TDF, for team glory.

I'd bring Grundy in to give Max an easier game. North have Goldstein and Xerri. We'd have to go with one less small in the rotation, probably Woey. Harmes (74%), Jordon (69%) to play more gametime.

I was wrong. Richmond really brought the heat and got out to 20pts three times. But we withstood and Max drove us home. That was a truly great win in an epic contest.

I did some historical percentage analysis. On that basis at this stage, IMO Port probably can't win the flag. Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne, Carlton and Geelong probably can. Year Premier Percentage Rank 2022 Geelong 144.2 1 2021 Melbourne 130.8 3 2020 Richmond 129.9 3 2019 Richmond 113.7 5 2018 West Coast 121.4 4 2017 Richmond 118.3 4 2016 Western Bulldogs 115.4 7 2015 Hawthorn 158.4 1 2014 Hawthorn 140.8 2 2013 Hawthorn 135.7 1 2012 Sydney 140.6 2 2011 Geelong 157.4 2 2010 Collingwood 141.7 2 2009 Geelong 127.4 2 2008 Hawthorn 131.9 2 2007 Geelong 152.8 1 2006 West Coast 120.4 3 2005 Sydney 116.4 4 2004 Port Adelaide 132.4 2 2003 Brisbane 121.9 2 2002 Brisbane 136.7 1 2001 Brisbane 127.6 4 2000 Essendon 159.1 1 1999 North Melbourne 115.7 4 1998 Adelaide 123.2 1 1997 Adelaide 121.6 1 1996 North Melbourne 127.4 1 1995 Carlton 137.8 1 1994 West Coast 132.2 2 1993 Essendon 119.1 2 1992 West Coast 125.9 3 1991 Hawthorn 135.9 2 1990 Collingwood 130.2 2 Mean 131.6 2.4 Median 130.2 2 Mode 127.4 2 Maximum 159.1 1 Minimum 113.7 7