old55

Gold Coast, Freo and the Saints can all win IMO.

Look I prefer 13 goal GF wins to 16 goal and 10 goal GF losses - but each to his own ...

I don't agree that Spargo and Chandler play significantly different roles - can you provide evidence? There's no good data on kms covered per game, but Chandler regularly features in the top 5 "speed in defence" measures which shows he's getting back there. I think Spargo is a capable AFL player but I think that Chandler has gone past him in every category: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=12&type=A&pid1=4150&pid2=6680&fid1=S&fid2=S Spargo's vision and kicking are his weapons but he has had 10 or more kicks only 12 times in 96 games. Your comparison of Spargo with Gryan Miers is very unflattering for Spargo, Miers kills him in every meaningful category: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=10&type=A&pid1=4150&pid2=6471&fid1=S&fid2=S Let's say for arguments sake that I accept your premise that Spargo plays a similar role to ANB. You know that the value this role is hotly debated - do we really need two playing it? And Spargo's contribution is way below ANB's: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=12&type=A&pid1=4150&pid2=4067&fid1=S&fid2=S

No

Yes but we won by 5 pts vs GC, 4pts vs Collingwood, 1 pt vs Brisbane and 4 pts vs Adelaide so it all cancels out in the end.

He's a very creative kick, but with 10 kicks or more 12 times in 96 games he just doesn't give enough impact.

WC home game too, humiliation in front of 51,172. That would have gone down like a cup of cold sick.

Well he's got 20 odd disposals once in 96 games so don't hold your breath. Look Spargo is a capable AFL player, I'm not a Spargo basher, but Chandler has gone past him in every area: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=12&type=A&pid1=6680&pid2=4150&fid1=S&fid2=S

Surely you're joking? Norm Smith is clearly the best coach - well in the conversation as best ever across Australian football, then Checker Hughes, then Goodwin. Daniher and Northey are in the next echelon.

I'm unenthusiastic about Spargo coming in when we have Kossie and Chandler forward already, and the likelihood of Smith heading there too. We want someone who can impact the play, Chandler has taken Spargo's place, he gets his hands on it more, kicks more goals and is quicker. He is just as disciplined and as good a gut runner as Spargo too. The idea that Chandler plays a significantly different role to Spargo is fugazi IMHO. I agree the cupboard is not exactly bursting with JJ alternatives - Laurie and Woewodin will be decent players but are not ready for pointy end of the season pressure, Harmes is erratic and down on confidence, Spargo doesn't impact, Dunstan is a turnover accumulator. I think it's a pity Howes got injured just when we might have taken a look at him a few weeks ago.

I think North are in a very strong position. They can tell WC that they'll take Curtin at 2, which would make perfect sense for their list needs. WC can either take Reid or Curtin at 1 or trade with North, who I'm sure will be very happy to take Reid, for 2 and something, and take Curtin with 2. North won't have to sell the farm in the trade because they have a strong position with 2. I think therefore that Reid and Curtin are out of reach for MFC and Walter goes to GC. From Cal's top 5, that leaves Duursma, McKercher and Watson in the range of our first pick.

Cal Twomey said on Gettable he is confident the top 5 are Reid, McKercher, Duursma, Curtain, Watson in some order to be determined.

nice work!

Some heinous inclusions and omissions in their list but I'm happy enough with my back six - hell Steven May couldn't make it!

Will the close wins against Gold Coast and Brisbane assure us of a top 4 finish?

Have you got a job?

Tassie Johnson, Gary Hardeman, Sean Wight, Noel McMahen, Alan Johnson, Neville Jetta

1st is favoured to beat 4rh who then have a tough match up in the SF, win or lose, against 5th who likely beat 8th.

Happy to see the back of Smith, Cunnington and Cotchin. I won't miss them

I agree with all that - I think we're of the same mind on this - but I expect we're outliers.

I wonder if Mitch Lewis doesn't get up for the game whether the Hawks will go with two rucks and bring Meek in to partner Reeves? They have Lewis and Koschitzke forward recently so I think we need to go in with 3 tall defenders, I don't think we can go with May, Lever and Hibberd - we tried and dispensed with that set-up early in the year. I think we need Smith forward so that would mean Tomlinson back into the side - he has his well discussed good and bad points. As I've posted elsewhere I think we misused Grundy against Carlton and played him too much forward and not enough in the ruck. As @deelusions from afar pointed out in the Grundy thread, when he did go into the ruck in the 3rd and 4th quarters we turned the scoring around significantly. I'm probably Robinson Crusoe, but I'd stick with Grundy this week and have him and Max split the ruck and forward duties - 20-30% gametime forward each, covering when Smith or JVR are off on the bench. That would mean Tomlinson for a runner - JJ, we have been playing with an extra runner because we've traditionally gone with 2 tall forwards and 2 rucks, but recently we've gone with a total of 3 of these. This possibly means we need a runner as sub which pushes Hibberd out of the 23, unless we think that Rivers can go into the midfield when Hibberd comes on. I'm not enamoured with our running sub options: JJ, Harmes, Woewodin, Spargo, Laurie - for various reasons I don't have confidence any of them can have a major positive impact when they come on. So maybe we can go with Hibberd. In: Tomlinson Out: JJ B: May, Tomlinson, Lever, Salem, Rivers, McVee, Bowey M: Gawn, Grundy, Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw, Sparrow, Langdon, Hunter F: JVR, Smith, Melksham, ANB, Kossie, Chandler S: Hibberd This is what I would do, but not necessarily what I think will happen.

I do. There's a bit of MFC 2021 about them. It's going to be very hard for them from 5th though if we can win one ofthe remaining two games.

CHF and CHB don't exist anymore.

Carlton are very good - better than I thought, but we can definitely beat them. JVR x 2, Chandler and Salem all missed chances they usually nail and then there was the Petracca goal call. One of those five instances goes our way and we win. It's ridiculous to say we can't beat them.

That was the week before vs North. Grundy wasn't playing.