old55

I think we want Port to defeat Freo so we finish 4th. I think it's most likely that Collingwood defeats Essendon next week and finishes top. QF vs Collingwood at the MCG has more appeal than vs Brisbane at the Gabba.

Not in the PF or GF if we finish a lower ranked team gets thru to play us.

I think they'll get an exemption on covering a bid for Sanders inside pick 40 and get an end of 1st round compensation for McKay. I think there might be a riot from the other clubs if they get the Sanders exemption AND pick 3.

Blanck (22 games), DGB (27 games) are their tall backs. Koschitzke (46 games) and Ramsden (1 game) are their tall forwards. Reeves (36 games) is their ruckman, presumably with help from Ramsden - it's hardly land of the giants ...

Did I suggest otherwise?

It's dollars and age that are taken into account so the fact that McKay is 25 works in North's favour. The points bidding rules are exactly the same for Academy and F/S - 20% discount on the points. The only difference is that teams other than GC, Brisbane, Sydney and GWS can't cover a bid on Academy players in the first 40 picks. That's the rule North has to get broken (if Sanders is added to their Academy)

JJ being subbed last week indicated the FD weren't convinced by his performance. There aren't many compelling mid/forward alternatives though - Spargo, Woewodin, Laurie, Dunstan ...

I know it's incidental, but Hibberd is on 196 games, it's getting tight to reach his goal of 200.

I generally like your insights Watson, but that's a massive stretch. Spargo only had 2 turnovers in that match. https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=10899&advv=Y I don't think that was the reason. 11 possessions and zero tackles inside 50 might be closer to the mark.

Harder for GC against Carlton with King out.

I'm not disputing that there is a "high half forward" role. I am disputing that there is any evidence that Spargo plays it more effectively than Chandler. Again there is no available evidence AFAIK that Spargo has superior athletic attributes to Chandler. I looked at the Tracker on the AFL App which records the top 5 performers in the match across a range of running attributes. Here's the total number of times Chandler and Spargo have appeared in the top 5 in those categories this season. Total Sprints: Chandler 7, Spargo 0 Repeat Sprints: Chandler 5, Spargo 2 Distance at High Speed: Chandler 3, Spargo 1 Average Speed: Chandler 1, Spargo 1 Average Speed in Attack: Chandler 0, Spargo 3 Average Speed in Defence: Chandler 9, Spargo 1 Maximum Speed: Chandler 10, Spargo 1 I think it's very clear that Chandler is quicker than Spargo and there's some evidence in Repeat Sprints and Average Speed in Defence that he has good endurance and covers the ground defensively. You were critical of Chandler vs Carlton last week, but he was top 5 in Maximum Speed, Total Sprints, Repeat Sprints and Average Speed in Defence.

Or go with Smith who provides an aerial threat and a forward pressure on the ground ball.

Spargo, neither fish nor fowl

Unsure why people are favouring Football Club for the FC component of the initials when there's a more compelling alternative.

Gold Coast, Freo and the Saints can all win IMO.

Look I prefer 13 goal GF wins to 16 goal and 10 goal GF losses - but each to his own ...

I don't agree that Spargo and Chandler play significantly different roles - can you provide evidence? There's no good data on kms covered per game, but Chandler regularly features in the top 5 "speed in defence" measures which shows he's getting back there. I think Spargo is a capable AFL player but I think that Chandler has gone past him in every category: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=12&type=A&pid1=4150&pid2=6680&fid1=S&fid2=S Spargo's vision and kicking are his weapons but he has had 10 or more kicks only 12 times in 96 games. Your comparison of Spargo with Gryan Miers is very unflattering for Spargo, Miers kills him in every meaningful category: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=10&type=A&pid1=4150&pid2=6471&fid1=S&fid2=S Let's say for arguments sake that I accept your premise that Spargo plays a similar role to ANB. You know that the value this role is hotly debated - do we really need two playing it? And Spargo's contribution is way below ANB's: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=12&type=A&pid1=4150&pid2=4067&fid1=S&fid2=S

No

Yes but we won by 5 pts vs GC, 4pts vs Collingwood, 1 pt vs Brisbane and 4 pts vs Adelaide so it all cancels out in the end.

He's a very creative kick, but with 10 kicks or more 12 times in 96 games he just doesn't give enough impact.

WC home game too, humiliation in front of 51,172. That would have gone down like a cup of cold sick.

Well he's got 20 odd disposals once in 96 games so don't hold your breath. Look Spargo is a capable AFL player, I'm not a Spargo basher, but Chandler has gone past him in every area: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=12&type=A&pid1=6680&pid2=4150&fid1=S&fid2=S

Surely you're joking? Norm Smith is clearly the best coach - well in the conversation as best ever across Australian football, then Checker Hughes, then Goodwin. Daniher and Northey are in the next echelon.

I'm unenthusiastic about Spargo coming in when we have Kossie and Chandler forward already, and the likelihood of Smith heading there too. We want someone who can impact the play, Chandler has taken Spargo's place, he gets his hands on it more, kicks more goals and is quicker. He is just as disciplined and as good a gut runner as Spargo too. The idea that Chandler plays a significantly different role to Spargo is fugazi IMHO. I agree the cupboard is not exactly bursting with JJ alternatives - Laurie and Woewodin will be decent players but are not ready for pointy end of the season pressure, Harmes is erratic and down on confidence, Spargo doesn't impact, Dunstan is a turnover accumulator. I think it's a pity Howes got injured just when we might have taken a look at him a few weeks ago.

I think North are in a very strong position. They can tell WC that they'll take Curtin at 2, which would make perfect sense for their list needs. WC can either take Reid or Curtin at 1 or trade with North, who I'm sure will be very happy to take Reid, for 2 and something, and take Curtin with 2. North won't have to sell the farm in the trade because they have a strong position with 2. I think therefore that Reid and Curtin are out of reach for MFC and Walter goes to GC. From Cal's top 5, that leaves Duursma, McKercher and Watson in the range of our first pick.