old55

I'd bring Grundy in to give Max an easier game. North have Goldstein and Xerri. We'd have to go with one less small in the rotation, probably Woey. Harmes (74%), Jordon (69%) to play more gametime.

I was wrong. Richmond really brought the heat and got out to 20pts three times. But we withstood and Max drove us home. That was a truly great win in an epic contest.

I did some historical percentage analysis. On that basis at this stage, IMO Port probably can't win the flag. Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne, Carlton and Geelong probably can. Year Premier Percentage Rank 2022 Geelong 144.2 1 2021 Melbourne 130.8 3 2020 Richmond 129.9 3 2019 Richmond 113.7 5 2018 West Coast 121.4 4 2017 Richmond 118.3 4 2016 Western Bulldogs 115.4 7 2015 Hawthorn 158.4 1 2014 Hawthorn 140.8 2 2013 Hawthorn 135.7 1 2012 Sydney 140.6 2 2011 Geelong 157.4 2 2010 Collingwood 141.7 2 2009 Geelong 127.4 2 2008 Hawthorn 131.9 2 2007 Geelong 152.8 1 2006 West Coast 120.4 3 2005 Sydney 116.4 4 2004 Port Adelaide 132.4 2 2003 Brisbane 121.9 2 2002 Brisbane 136.7 1 2001 Brisbane 127.6 4 2000 Essendon 159.1 1 1999 North Melbourne 115.7 4 1998 Adelaide 123.2 1 1997 Adelaide 121.6 1 1996 North Melbourne 127.4 1 1995 Carlton 137.8 1 1994 West Coast 132.2 2 1993 Essendon 119.1 2 1992 West Coast 125.9 3 1991 Hawthorn 135.9 2 1990 Collingwood 130.2 2 Mean 131.6 2.4 Median 130.2 2 Mode 127.4 2 Maximum 159.1 1 Minimum 113.7 7

I think Richmond will be desperate with finals on the line, I think they should have beaten us on ANZAC Eve but for inaccuracy/accuracy differential, I think their backline is capable, their midfield is not missing anyone and is batting deep and I think they have just enough avenues to goal in Riewoldt, Martin and Bolton. If Lynch was playing I'd be even more pessimistic. I also admit there's a bit of MFCSS vibe, and it's been there all week, even ahead of the upset results that make the win more important for us. Sometimes "I got a feeling, a feeling deep inside ..." I have money on Richmond little-win. Hope we go with Hibberd as sub and give Smith a full game at Casey. I also think a loss at this time is not fatal for any of the contenders - hell if it is, put your money on Carlton for the flag. I will have a nibble at that though if Richmond wins.

Doubling down. Richmond to win, but it doesn’t mean our season is over.

We'll see if they try it soon enough.

But we don't need a "backup", we need someone who can capably share the ruck gametime with Max.

The preferred structure across the journey has been 2 KPFs and 2 rucks. I predict Grundy comes in for a small e.g. Woey, especially with Clarrie getting back.

I agree with the first paragraph but you're writing off 2023 in the second and I'm unwilling to. Max cannot go solo (ie with JVR) all the way into the GF, so we need to get Brodie back in, and as @A F says we won against Collingwood with them in tandem. An interesting ingredient to add to your 2024 recipe is Brodie Grundy MFC Premiership player.

Yes Max over estimated his own ability to adapt to play effectively forward and here we are. No surprise Max, being the champion he is, has come out with some great solo work while Brodie has gone back to Casey. But it can't continue through to the GF. Brodie will come back, probably next week. Then it gets interesting.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/that-looked-nasty-mark-blicavs-tom-hawkins-injuries-compound-geelong-s-shock-loss-to-dockers-20230728-p5dryb.html Thunderbirds are go!

My expectations were that Dwayne would say something stupid and he never disappoints.

Did you pay any attention at all to Max's condition last year? Did you pay any attention to Max driving Brodie's recruitment?

Max has 3 years left if he doesn't have to ruck full-time. The reason he played so well solo is because Grundy enabled him to have less load, but he can't sustain this. Max was behind recruiting Grundy and remains so. What's laughable is that people can't understand this.

So not happening then?

Collingwood has their full list available and it's very strong, well balanced and experienced. They have an excellent backline at least the equal of ours; they may not have the very top end talent of our midfield, but they bat measurably deeper; and their forward line is at least equal to ours. The only area we are superior is in the ruck, but a serious question remains whether we can convert that advantage into a result. There's a difference in method and that's the intangible come finals time. Their time is now though with Pendlebury, Howe, Sidebottom, Cox, Elliott, Mihocek and Mitchell all north of 30yo. There's a Geelong 2022 feeling in the air for me.

Harmes or Dunstan - it's not going to make the difference between winning or losing. Not really worth discussing. Hibberd in for Dusty and Rivers to the midfield at least has a potential to be influential on the result and genuinely experiments with Rivers midfield capabilities. A more worthy discussion.

did you BYO saw?

It's the most straightforward explanation though and is fully consistent with how MFC operates following AFL rules e.g. Jordon not coming on in the 21 GF. Why say "Goodwin just playing the media with naming him each week." when there's a simpler more obvious explanation?

Interesting - I was 65.

As posted above, Grundy is named on the extended bench in case Max gets an injury ahead of the game and he needs to come in. Are you happy to personally pay the fine if we have to bring in someone not named?

Most likely Petty for Brown and Harmes for Sparrow though. They might select Hibberd and rest McVee, there might be some concern about McVee getting beaten in successive weeks by Rankine then Dusty. It will be interesting to see. I'd like to see Smith for Woewodin to add more forward defensive pressure and aerial threat but I doubt we'll see it. I think Grundy comes in for a small when Clarrie comes back.

Potential for an enormous amount of egg on face if we win this year's flag with Brodie.

Yes and North are seeking a double whammy here. First to add Sanders to their Next Gen Academy late - I think there is a case for this because AFAIK he has been involved with them for a number of years and has only recently officially established his Aboriginality. Second, to bypass the updated rule that (apart from NSW and Qld teams) you can only bid on Academy players selected after pick 40 - I actually think that rule is too restrictive if you have invested long term in the player, maybe fairer would be no points discount up to pick 40. But nevertheless it's the rule and North are trying to bypass it. FWIW, I think they'll get their way. Sanders genuinely said on Gettable he was happy to go to North, he's very god friends with Harry Sheezel and there's talk that North will select McKercher, also from Tasmania like Sanders. North need KPs, even more so if McKay leaves. Maybe they're hoping that delivers pick 3 and they can take Curtain there. That would pose a risk and problems for any trade of our Freo pick to WC for pick 1 because they wouldn't get Curtain. A fair bit to play out ...

Don't win the flag = Disaster OK