old55

Looking at the 2021 GF team as the benchmark we are going in shorter to the QF. We have 5 personnel changes and matching them up: JVR for Brown, Smith for Jackson, Chandler for Spargo, Hunter for Harmes and McVee for Petty. It's this last one that signifies the change, but with wet weather forecast and still having 6 marking "talls" (May, Lever, Smith, JVR, TMac, Fritsch) as I have posted, I don't think we're "too short". We'll probably have a 6th change from the GF side depending on who is sub, I expect it to be Laurie over JJ. I think Collingwood bat deeper in their midfield but I think with Nick Daicos out, our top end talent is superior and therefore the ball will be in our half more: De Goey, Pendlebury, Mitchell, Crisp, Adams, J.Daicos, Sidebottom, Lipinski, Hoskin-Elliott Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw, Sparrow, Langdon, Hunter We killed them on KBW and it was only our errant kicking that kept them in it. With more time in our forward half, accuracy is going to be key tonight but I have a good degree of confidence because all of Fritsch, TMac, JVR, Smith and Chandler are reliable shots and Pickett and ANB can be good if they are on. We'll need goals from Petracca too. I think we win.

It's "we"

JVR? We've selected 6 marking "talls" if you count Fritsch and I do. We can play 3 forward and 3 back if necessary.

He hasn't heard of you either.

I think the Dogs 10 will fall before Croft gets bid. They'll either use it or use it to trade up earlier.

That would be in 2024 though because trade precedes draft.

It's pretty clear Brodie Grundy is off to greener AFL pastures in the trade period. We need a ready made ruck replacement. Max will be 32 next season and can't be expected to ruck solo the whole season. As suggested to me by @grazman, Matt Flynn is UFA at GWS this year, he won't cost us anything in draft picks, only salary and we just need to convince him to come across. A true mature ruck-forward would be nice but they don't grow on trees.

I agree, I know nothing first hand about U18 details, but on the reports a Watson + O'Sullivan double could be handy.

True, they'll be a mid 3rd rounder short of sufficient points IF Croft gets bid at 11 - probably not too hard to trade in the necessary though. Pick 4 and Croft would be a good haul for them.

Well he can at least enjoy playing with the top 5 pick that will be joining his club this draft period (thanks Titus).

Depends how strong the wind is blowing from the west. I'm in the Shane Warne stand on Level 4 in Q2 Row A behind the PRE goals. If it's windy I'll get wet despite what the chart says.

Cal Twomey has Duursma at 3 and Watson at 5 in his August Phantom Form Guide, that doesn't mean that's where he'll end up in November and it's not a Phantom Draft anyway - that's something Twomey does separately based on teams' preferences and not Twomey's outright rating. https://www.afl.com.au/news/1009306/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-august-ranking

If I'm the Dogs I'm not paying more than 10 and 17 (2420 points) for 4 (2034), that's a 20% upgrade on points. If I'm Melbourne I'm not paying more than 15 (1112) + 24 (785) + 34 (542) a similar 2439 points to the Dogs offering. The issue for Melbourne is that we hope 15 and 34 end up being later when the season ends and draft positions are set, whereas for the Dogs, Brisbane's 17 can't be much later.

The Dogs are well placed for GC's pick 4 (2034 pts) with pick 10 (1395) and Brisbane's 17 (1025), that's 2420 pts total - a very nice upgrade for both clubs.

I'm on record saying this trade would only be a success if Melbourne wins a flag with Brodie at the club and I'm continuing with that line. If we win the flag this year with Max making a solid contribution because he's playing fit in contrast with last year, then I'll consider the trade a success even if Brodie doesn't play for the rest of the year and gets traded at the end. Flags are hard to win and take a lot of ingredients.

Jake spoke very well in this interview, very positive and vey humble. I wonder if he and Steven May have direct input into backline selection decisions? https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/1422909/qualifying-final-media-conference-jake-lever

He can watch Maxy hold up the cup on 30 September on TV from Margaret River.

I haven't been impressed with Sydney's last two 4th quarter efforts 0.4 to 8.12 in total. Carlton will run over them if they're anywhere near close at 3qtr time. St.Kilda should be playing GWS at Marvel and would win there, but not at the MCG. Brisbane won't lose at the Gabba, even in the PF against Collingwood who will be beaten up by consecutive games against Melbourne and Carlton. We need to win the QF or otherwise it will be us in that boat.

Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton, GWS Collingwood, Port Melbourne, Brisbane Melbourne

Wet weather creates a selection problem for Collingwood too though who likely planned to go in with Cameron and Cox. Will they just go with one and can he go with big Maxy for four quarters?

Tom Lynch will play all next year at 31yo. If his foot is OK he should be able to play at least 2 more years. He's a very good player. Lynch has 2 years to run on his contract at Richmond, he's not going to play in their next flag. Their first pick last year was 49 and they have 25, 44, 62, 80 this year. They may be looking to improve their draft hand and Lynch would be valuable collateral along with Dusty. I'd definitely be interested.

Max said on Gus and Gawny that he couldn't se himself making 250 games.

Grundy going to one of our main competitors say either Port or Sydney over the next few years will result in a fair loss of IP. Of course Collingwood has rolled that same dice with us this year.

Trade period runs 9-18 October, we could be playing on 30 September. When do you think it's a good date for him to start investigating his future? Do you reckon we weren't talking to him until after Collingwood's GF last year?

Collingwood also have Moore, Murphy and McCreery to come in and 3 coming out for them who are not named in the VFL side.