John Demonic

Interesting. Thanks. So in determining the probability %, does this model use a particular method for each game? Bookies odds? For eg I was determining my 3/1 or 2/2 permutations based on many assumptions like Collingwood beating Port & Carlton, Freo beating WB. goes to show that 3/1 is difficult for any team, so it most likely comes with top 2 reward. The 2/2 is curious, I'd have thought falling out of the top 4 was the most likely, given the ladder % of other teams can catch up to us with easier fixtures of some of our rivals eg Bris/Sydney already are in the 120's

This ladder predictor is super fast, and you can run through the last 4 rounds in a minute or two: and change results to tweak the ladder. https://predictor.squiggle.com.au Going 2/2 is just annoying to predict where we end up as its going to be based on who we win or lose to, and what they end up doing but its far from ideal and will most likely have us outside the top 4. Heck, even winning 3/4 can have us outside the 4 on % If we can beat Coll/Carl/Bris and Freo win all their remaining games, then Friday night is basically the decider for 2nd and loser will end up between 3rd or 5th on %. Syd v Coll is a pretty big game that could decide that order. Melb/Syd/Bris or Melb/Coll/Bris will all come down to % Beating Freo, Carl and Coll is also going to make Melb v Bris most likely a battle for top 2 finish. But we all know this. Not worth thinking about losing to Collingwood but winning the other 3 is also going to mean us making top 2 comes down to Coll losing to one of Syd/Carl Some of the permutations are too much really with 4 rounds to go! Not worth getting worked up about.

This sounds like one hell of a party

The Naarm Smith Curse

2nd on the ladder and a QF against Brisbane in week 1 off the current ladder. All going to plan.

Fair enough. I guess I have less faith in Weid firing, than I do in Benny rehabbing from a knee injury.

That's like saying 'If Dunstan comes in and averages 40 disposals per game, it could be the end for Viney"

He doesn't always kill us. Goodwin has been known to put the clamp on him 'when it counts'

tl;dr Wednesday is stressful enough without having to do late night mathematics

Bailey Firstch

I don't envy the job of recruiters, having to watch teams like North regularly to form opinions on uncontracted players.

True. Naughton off covid, Bruce off injury, and both without a year to sync up. Good that we get them now than in a few weeks then. EDIT: One thing I remember this time last year from the First Crack show, is that they made sure Hannan got onto May, so that Bruce or Naughton could isolate Lever. They also had English floating forward to cause havoc. Interesting to see if they try this again.

The doggies pose a different challenge than our last 2 meetings, with Bruce & Naughton back together for the first time since his injury. Easy to forget he was leading the Coleman last year at one stage It might be too far gone for them, and we can bury them with a great performance, whoever they have in their team. But I still have them at their best, a harder challenge than Freo, so I concur.

It was very notable how big they were against us. Breaking tackles and making them stick. Anyway, Let's hope this topic becomes irrelevant and they choke a prelim to Sydney or Freo! (And we cruise past Bris/Carl provided we lock up top 4) *I refuse to acknowledge Collingwood exist

With all this talk of 198cm Bliclavs taking out Petracca & Cripps in successive weeks. I was thinking perhaps if we meet Geelong again, we can try a tactical shift of the 199cm ruck rover Dogga on Bliclavs, Gawn in ruck, Viney/Oliver in tight. Petracca up forward. If TMAC can get back then it won't make us deficient for size up forward either.

Another premiership?

Anyone wanting a splash more confidence and belief? https://www.afl.com.au/video/798583/who-s-your-premiership-tip-?videoId=798583&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1657656000001 Twomey and Riley Beveridge still backing us on the AFL Exchange. Sara Olle too. They're far less reactionary and clickbait than the channel nine commentators, and follow trends/stats more closely.

He dug himself a hole when it came to his attitude towards Lever. I reckon he'd sooner get delisted after this year or next, than go to another club for 3-4 years, purely out of pride/shame, over dollars/success. So sure, maybe not the best fit for us culturally. but from a pure technical ability, he surpasses everything we have in our forward 50 currently, hence the interest.

Maybe we could package him up with our 2nd and 3rd (36+54) and do a pick swap that could get us Collingwoods 2nd and 3rd (29-32 and 47-50) at a guess 🤷‍♂️ - They need forwards, have a history of recruiting nqr tall forwards hello quentin lynch, they will want more forwards if De Goey leaves with their cap space, and then they have the family connection.

Port & Bulldogs back 6's aren't too big a step up from the VFL I reckon. Undersized and constantly out of position this year. It might be the ample two games to debut JVR

I like your work on Wednesday's 360 Mr Montagna, but I think you might be a little off the mark on us potentially missing the 8

When we were up 2 goals to zip, I did not like the Petracca hit on Selwood after he got rid of it. Selwood dump kicked it directly to us, and we would've had a shot on goal to put us up 3 goals. I know we want to mentally intimidate them and their captain, but that wasn't the right time to do it. Minor quibble, but surely against team rules to give away silly free kicks.

Meh. No doubt we have some areas to address, but I'm not fussed about Skinny stadium in July. I'm more annoyed that Nadal pulled out of the Wimbledon semi vs Kyrgios tbh. Had a big Friday night/saturday morning of all footy and tennis planned.

Of course. I was just being facetious towards this Brown v Weid debate on the team changes/selection post each week