Everything posted by Red and Blue realist
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The 2019 Draft and Trade Targets Thread
I doubt we're any chance for Cameron, GWS cleared a fair bit off their books last year (Shiel, Lobb & Scully) so they have room for him and Cogs. However, I put in another thread that I'd be looking at trying to get involved with GWS at the trade table. They have pick 9 & 13 as it stands at the moment, but I think there pick will end up high. They have an academy kid who might get a top 5 bid. So if we could leverage that and say swap pick 3 & 25 for picks 9 & 16, plus Patton and Bonnar or Langdon, then I think we'd do well. We keep a reasonable first round pick plus get a tall marking forward and add ready to play player/s who are decent depth at worse. GWS keep a high pick plus get their academy kid, while removing more salary off their books. In the end it'd be out: Picks 3 & 25 for picks 9 & 16 (projecting out), Patton & Bonnar.
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POSTGAME: Rd16 vs Carlton
This is exactly why Preuss hasn't been getting a game. While he's had a couple of games where he kicked 2 goals, by and large he wasn't great beyond that. What I'd like them to do is to have a plan B if playing Pruess as a forward isn't working, to maybe play Gawn as a backman, with one of May, Frost or even OMac (if picked to replace Petty) swung forward when Preuss goes into the ruck. There is no rule that a resting ruck has to play forward and we all know Max is a great contested mark and very intimidating presence when he positions himself a kick/kick and half down the line when the opposition are coming out of their backline.
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CHANGES: Rd 17 vs Western Bulldogs
We manged to keep the ball locked in our fwd 50 for most of the first half and ANB we great with his run, chase and pressure. No way he goes out. I think it'll be injury replacement only, if Gawn is ready then he'll bully English and it should be a big advantage. Lever will be back as well. I think they'll also bring in omac for petty, so the same team structure is kept
- POSTGAME: Rd16 vs Carlton
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Bryce Gibbs
It'd be the equivalent of the NBA salary cap dump, David King wrote an article this week about selling draft picks in the future, but this is an area I think the AFL might actively get behind first. They might encourage older players on big coin to go to developing clubs while freeing up cap space of the club they are leaving.
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PREGAME: Rd 16 vs Carlton
I take it as the opposite, they know what he can do and won't be tempted into giving him a new contract so no point in playing him. Although, I still think they might, even if it's just so he gets the chance to pump up his value for another team to take him as a delisted free agent/trade. Just got the 2019 membership survey email, best thing will be to let them know in that too. Only a small section of the member base goes to the AGM, but I'd guess over 50% might complete that survey.
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PREGAME: Rd 16 vs Carlton
JHK is out of contact and might have his papers stamped, while I'd give him a chance that might just be the reality of it. Baker needed a week off, I also think Hore might get one when lever is right, first year guys find it hard to make it through a full year in the 1s, so nothing wrong with it if done right. There was an article on Dunkley this week so hoping to see him get a run.
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2019 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch
Same as the big leagues, if a draft was done on current players then I'd expect Cripps and Oliver would be right up there, whereas the reigning premiers probably wouldn't have a player taken in the top 10 (maybe McGovern). I like the idea of trading to get multiple good picks/players rather than going all out for 1 potential superstar.
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Can we please get some small forwards
Agree with this, plus we've been able to maintain our high inside 50 rate, so it's something we should be bale to turn around rather quickly. It started to look much better against Freo, looked alright in the first quarter and half against Brissy then fell away. I don't think Jeffy will go on next year, and we lost Kent and didn't really replace him, so we've still got holes with real energetic small forwards, but I think we're not as far away as most suggest.
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2019 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch
I'd like us to get creative this year and maybe send our first rounder to GWS, they have a young kid Green coming through who'll get earlish bids on (top 5), which they'd have to match with one of their 1st rounders. I was thinking we could send our first and second/third round picks to them for a combination of their first pick (from Essendon) plus another high pick, they don't have a second round pick this so maybe next years - plus Patton and Bonar/Langdon. Result: MFC out: Picks 3 & 39 - GWS out: Pick 9, Patton & Bonar. We could then look at Serong/O'Neil/Stephens (I'm just going of draft boards, not an expert by any means). We'd end up with a good tall, depth plus high end talent.
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It's The Preseason Stupid
Surely we want to play the same game plan no matter the team? So maybe there have been times where the coaches might have known the players aren't fit enough but completely changing the game plan would be much more detrimental, both to that game and long term?
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CHANGES: Rd 16 vs Carlton
Depends on Gawn's fitness, if he pulls up Ok, I still can't see him being 100%, so they might try and play him more forward, TMac's running has returned to close to what he can do so send him out to do the kind of role Melksham normally does. However, if they try and play Preuss as a 80% forward then I agree we would be too big with all 3.
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CHANGES: Rd 16 vs Carlton
He's played 1 good game this year, followed up by a terrible game. Given he's 28 and out of contract means he has to make every post a winner and he was really terrible yesterday. I'd prefer Preuss because we need to see what he can do, and I'd be leaving Weid in because he got a longer career with us.
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CHANGES: Rd 16 vs Carlton
Yeah Petty got done badly, but I'm glad Goody left him on Hipwood for so long, best way to learn. He'll go out this week because Carlton have lost Curnow so we won't need as many true talls. Lever in if fit. Hore looks like he needs a rest, but I'd love to see how he goes with Lever, I'd also be reluctant to take Hibberd out because we need to give our key backs as much time together as possible. For me it'd be: Lever, Preuss and JHK for Petty, T.Smith and Baker.
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Kobe Farmer
Just means he's doing all the right things and being exposed to as much higher level coaching/experience he can at his age. He's also been over with us as well. From what I understand the father-son and next gen have the same rules, so neither takes priority and it'll be up to him and his family to decide.
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Trac, time to play angry ?
Spot on, it's the same as Pendles, they have a skill set the allows them to predict the next movement better than a real bang and crasher such as Viney or Jones, so it's not like he can't take contact it's that he's trying to think about what happens once he got the ball rather than just getting the ball. One thing long term he needs to get better at is learning to consistently use his body strength to help create those next opportunities, but that'll come. I see him as being more Robbie Gray than Dusty Martin which a lot want because of his size.
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CHANGES: Rd 15 vs Brisbane
Get May to line him up like the Walters tackle in the first on Saturday, might have cost a free kick but I reckon it got under his skin for the rest of the game. Not sure Cameron would bite back as much, but would hopefully make him watch his steps.
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CHANGES: Rd 15 vs Brisbane
ANB just returned from injury as well, and I thought he did what he's there for, run, chase, pressure and tackle. Hannan was down, but not sure that Dunkley is a direct replacement for what Hannan brings. I think they'll end up giving Dunkley another game or 2 at Casey before he gets a call up, but might have talked him up to keep his spirits nice and high. I'd like them to play Fritsch forward, along with ANB, Hannan and Lockhart and try and go back to a real mobile forward line, with the talls all mobile as well. The only change for mine would be Hibberd for Wagner, with Hore to try and play in front of Cameron and cut off any chances he gets.
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Oscar McDonald
Yes Salem is in there, but I think we'd go with the 6 true backmen, the 4 set plus 2 more, then have 2 or so mids/utilities such as Salem, Jones, Fritsch, Lewis, KK etc. roll through there as well. They are more suited to a mid/back role than say Oliver, Trac, Harmes who are more mid/forwards.
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Simon Goodwin on SEN (26/6/19)
I was at the game and was very surprised when I looked at the stats the next day, he seemed to be much more involved, which is good that the coaches aren't blinding going off stats either.
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Oscar McDonald
Perhaps that's the reason why Frost hasn't been signed up yet? Not making a judgement call on any of them, but both OMac and Petty are in contract for 2020. We'd also get the most value for Frost at the moment, given the massive strides he's made this year. Realistically if everyone was fit our backline would be Lever, May, Jetta, Hibberd plus 2 of Hore, Frost, Petty and Omac, with a mid thrown into the mix as well (include Fritsch in that).
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Margin Call: Should we trade our early pick/s?
I think we need a little more quality depth, our front-line best 30 is still pretty good, we've just not had anywhere near out best 30 available to choose from for most of the year. If we had the chance to go from pick say 6 to swapping with GWS for picks 9/17, I'd be happy with that. They are the only team at this stage with 2 first round picks, besides the Gold Coast who will finish below us.
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ANB Close to Re-Signing?
Massively underrated for what he does really well, too many on here (as they always do) highlight a players limitations rather than look at what he brings to the team. No one else in the forward line chases, tackles, pressures as well as what ANB does, even his manic running to man the mark is a massive plus. When you've got a team with such a dominance in clearances who do sometimes bomb it into the forward line you need to lock it in as much as possible or if the opposition get it slow their movement out of the back 50. While he might not be as clean as some other small forwards, he does that better than just about anyone in the comp (when fully fit).
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Goody Presser (21/6)
We all want them to go out and just do it and win each week, but I've been talking about how we should be setting up to maximise the chance of wins in the long term. For instance should we be playing Jordy Lewis each game because he gives us a better chance of winning than say Lockhart/hore or do we give those guys a run and hope they become very important players for the future. We're not in a position to 'play the kids' because we're a young team anyway but looking at integrating personnel so they play better together for the future should hold a lot of weight.
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Goody Presser (21/6)
Yes but they don't just happen because we say we want a winning culture, it happens because we play the right way as a team. Just wanting it won't make it happen