The Premiership Window Closing?

[Dr. Gonzo 24,162]

On 10/01/2024 at 18:46, tiers said:

No.

2022 was crueled by injuries and we did not allow for recuperation and recovery during the season.

2023 was crueled by losing Petty and Melksham (who surely would have been worth 1-2 goals) and the illegal hit on Angus that affected our options in the first week of the finals.

Maysie was right - we are as good as them. Let's hope that better injury management and greater fortune with the timing of injuries will enhance our prospects for this year.

Excuses. Fact is when push came to shove we were found wanting two years in a row. This team needs a reality check, they are wasting a golden opportunity and seem to be content with 2021. That's a long time ago now and they seem to wilt under the pressure of big, hostile crowds.

2024 will tell a lot about the character of the players, coaches and club as a whole. Another flag with this list is non-negotiable.

Edited January 13 by Dr. Gonzo

[Dr. Gonzo 24,162]

On 10/01/2024 at 19:45, Sir Why You Little said:

That’s 4 Home Finals in a Row…..

Inexcusable.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,162]

On 11/01/2024 at 00:01, Stiff Arm said:

Best list we have seen for decades, multiple A grade players.

2022 should've been a premiership, given the mega start we had.

2023 was unforgivable for throwing away the flag. Injuries to Petty and Melk are weak excuses.

Maysie was spot on, we missed a golden chance.

Goody, Taylor and Lamb developed a super list that worked well in the 2021 hub, but couldn't perform or behave in the real AFL environment. Four home final losses in a row despite i50 domination, there are problems beyond a couple of injuries.

IMO if we don't get our [censored] together on 2024, it's a long time until we will be able to compete again.

Can you imagine how it might look if we slip to bottom 8, with no home base, a bunch of aging stars, a coach under the pump for performance on and off field, and the AFLs attention returning to their darling big 4???

We got comfortable believing the hype that the Club has returned to the powerhouse we were 60 years ago

Fortunes can change very quickly

On top of that there seem to be cultural/behavioural issues which have not been managed properly. Oliver, Smith and the smoke around Goodwin, there seems to be leaking from the club to push narratives in the media - the governance seems to have slipped since Jackson was at the club.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,162]

On 11/01/2024 at 00:32, Macca said:

Exactly

The replacement forward line stood up manfully and tried their utmost

But if our forward line looked like this do we lose either of the finals?

HF Petracca*/Kozzie**  Petty    Fritsch

F    Melksham    JVR/Brown   Chandler

*Petracca not able to play forward due to the loss of Brayshaw

**Kozzie not able to have stints on the ball as he was needed in the forward line

Dark italics - not available

So not only did we not have key personnel up forward but we lost all balance and flexibility (up forward)

Despite all that we went down narrowly in both finals

The above forward line would have helped us win the '23 flag, without such a forward line we had very little chance (of winning 3 finals)

 

As opposed to Collingwoods formidable forward line 🙄

Hill Mihocek Elliott

McCreery De Goey J Daicos

 

Kozzie wasn't able to have stints on the ball because the coaches refused to play him there. After his round 1 suspension he spent very little time in the centre other than attending bounces at the start of quarters.

[Macca 16,909]

29 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

As opposed to Collingwoods formidable forward line 🙄

Hill Mihocek Elliott

McCreery De Goey J Daicos

 

Kozzie wasn't able to have stints on the ball because the coaches refused to play him there. After his round 1 suspension he spent very little time in the centre other than attending bounces at the start of quarters.

Collingwood play a different style which allows them to keep their forward line open (they are a counter-attacking team)

Their delivery forward is miles better than most as well (and that includes us)

With our style of bombing it in, we really need quality forwards who can win their own ball.  And that style did deliver a flag

But no longer in my view, we need to change our style but we still need quality forwards as why wouldn't you want quality forwards (?)

My main concern are forwards creating separation and the delivery forward plus, I'd prefer a quality forward line

So I don't make excuses, blaming umpires is an excuse

Edited January 14 by Macca

[Dr. Gonzo 24,162]

Just now, Macca said:

Collingwood play a different style which allows them to keep their forward line open (they are a counter-attacking team)

Their delivery forward is miles better than most as well (and that includes us)

With our style of bombing it in, we really need quality forwards who can win their own ball.  And that style did deliver a flag

But no longer in my view, we need to change our style but we still need quality forwards as why wouldn't you want quality forwards

My main concern are forwards creating separation and the delivery forward plus, I'd prefer a quality forward

So I don't make excuses, blaming umpires is an excuse

So the problem was that we didn't adapt our game style to suit our personnel. 69 inside 50s vs 37 to Collingwood.

Besides that we clearly didn't turn up to play in the QF and/or were spooked. We allow ourselves to be bullied (and I'm not talking about the Maynard/Brayshaw incident). That is either down to complacency or a soft underbelly.

[Macca 16,909]

1 minute ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

So the problem was that we didn't adapt our game style to suit our personnel. 69 inside 50s vs 37 to Collingwood.

Besides that we clearly didn't turn up to play in the QF and/or were spooked. We allow ourselves to be bullied (and I'm not talking about the Maynard/Brayshaw incident). That is either down to complacency or a soft underbelly.

For most of those 69 entries the ball came straight back out ... we didn't enter the f50 with any science attached.  Plus, a number of the entries were repeat boundary side entries.  And we mostly bombed it in

So we need to change our style to a more efficient style plus, we are too slow entering the forward line and we don't use the corridor enough

The inside 50 count was almost dead even against Carlton but the same problem stood out - the way we enter the forward line, the speed of those entries and the quality of our forwards

If you just want to have a giant whinge without analysis, go right ahead.  You'll be joining the ranks of the miserable pessimists that reside here (nothing to offer but whinge, whinge, whinge)

So what's your analysis Gonzo? (whinge-free)

[Macca 16,909]

@Dr. Gonzo  ... I'm surprised you haven't mentioned crowd support and that apparently, we don't make enough noise?

After 1 flag, our crowd support should be at Collingwood or Richmond type levels?  Laughable

And in a close loss, you usually get stuck into the umpires as a default move.  Or perhaps we should just sack the coach, that'll do

Me, I've just never been a bad loser and would prefer to break down a game of football from a technical point of view.  And the sport is very technical

Our endeavour, energy and attack on the footy was first rate during the finals last year, we were just short on application

 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

22 minutes ago, Macca said:

For most of those 69 entries the ball came straight back out ... we didn't enter the f50 with any science attached.  Plus, a number of the entries were repeat boundary side entries.  And we mostly bombed it in

So we need to change our style to a more efficient style plus, we are too slow entering the forward line and we don't use the corridor enough

The inside 50 count was almost dead even against Carlton but the same problem stood out - the way we enter the forward line, the speed of those entries and the quality of our forwards

If you just want to have a giant whinge without analysis, go right ahead.  You'll be joining the ranks of the miserable pessimists that reside here (nothing to offer but whinge, whinge, whinge)

So what's your analysis Gonzo? (whinge-free)

I don't want to whinge because I do believe all our fwd injuries were the main issue.

There are just a couple of selections that irked me. Tmac was one. Would Grundy have marked a few of those bombs? Laurie as the sub another ... Too inexperienced for a final.( Although it's rare the sub has to play a whole game.)

Maybe Tmac was a hard call. All reports indicated he was moving well at Casey.

Come the Blues game Jvr was out so maybe we were stuck with a hampered Tmac.

Clearly they had no faith in Grundy and maybe we will never know why he was on the outer. 

If we had some quality forwards leading down the ground we certainly would have hit up the scoreboard more.

I think a lot of our season this year will rest on Jvr continuing his journey and Petty being fit. And a fully fit Fritta all year would be handy  Bbb will be a bonus. I don't hold much hope for Tmac. Can't say I've seen enough of the recruits to call on them.

I am concerned that when we make finals , the media will turn  those losses into a curse. Should be interesting.

It's going to be a big year and I for one can't wait now until it starts.

It's a frustrating mistress the old footy but one we love regardless.

At this point it's best to put aside gripes, complaints and questions and enjoy a fresh new season where we know we can and will compete. 

Go Dees.

Edited January 14 by leave it to deever

[Dr. Gonzo 24,162]

25 minutes ago, Macca said:

For most of those 69 entries the ball came straight back out ... we didn't enter the f50 with any science attached.  Plus, a number of the entries were repeat boundary side entries.  And we mostly bombed it in

So we need to change our style to a more efficient style plus, we are too slow entering the forward line and we don't use the corridor enough

The inside 50 count was almost dead even against Carlton but the same problem stood out - the way we enter the forward line, the speed of those entries and the quality of our forwards

If you just want to have a giant whinge without analysis, go right ahead.  You'll be joining the ranks of the miserable pessimists that reside here (nothing to offer but whinge, whinge, whinge)

So what's your analysis Gonzo? (whinge-free)

My analysis is that we are too predictable going forward, we just hack it in like banging our heads against a brick wall instead of taking time to be more creative with the footy. Is this coaches or players? A bit of both I think. We do need to change our style, and we didn't. That's where the whinge comes from.

Kozzie needs to spend more time in the middle, he has speed and creativity which we sorely lack.

The cultural issues need to be knocked on the head.

The team seems either too complacent or they have a soft underbelly. They talk a lot about wanting to have a great culture and being ruthless but actions talk and they have floundered when it mattered two years running.

Can we turn it around? Yes absolutely. Will we? I think that's yet to be proven especially with teams like Adeliade, GWS, Carlton and I think Freo pushing for a flag over the next couple of years.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,162]

16 minutes ago, Macca said:

@Dr. Gonzo 

Our endeavour, energy and attack on the footy was first rate during the finals last year, we were just short on application

 

I disagree, the way we came out against Collingwood showed that our endeavour was wanting. For a team that had a point to prove after 2022 it was extremely disappointing. We have allowed a 3rd rate hack in Cox to bully us for years and it happened again at the very first bounce where he ran straight into Max with his knee.

Our endeavour in the Carlton game was much better and we came out breathing fire but we didn't capitalise. I'm not so fussed about the Carlton game to be honest because other than the ignominy of going out in straight sets our dash was done in the QF.

Edited January 14 by Dr. Gonzo

[leave it to deever 17,511]

On 12/01/2024 at 00:12, Dee-monic said:

How long the window stays open depends on smart drafting and trading, as well as luck with injuries at critical times of the season. Nobody gets drafting 100 percent right, because it is far from an exact science. And trading can blow up in your face (eg the Grundy fiasco). But we still have a nucleus of talent that is the envy of most other clubs, as well as some promising youngsters. and maybe this is the season in which Van Rooyen will come to the fore as the full-forward we have been lacking. I still see the glass as half full rather than half empty. The deciding factor will probably be whether Oliver can sort out his personal life.

A lot of eyes on Jvr this year.

I would prefer him at Chf as I think he is more suited to it with his run and endurance.

Was last year a true break out year for the young man?

I think he showed enough that he's going to be a prominent player for some time.

Hopefully this trajectory accelerates more this year and he's up there competing in the Coleman.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

12 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

being ruthless but actions talk a

I was disappointed that it was really only Viney that remonstrated with Maynard. I would have liked to see the whole team jump the bloke but hey I'm not angry.

Hopefully kB round may see some natural justice. Again not angry.

Also for a bloke his size Max does get pushed around a lot but I guess that's just the nature of the man. He is a very decent chap.

 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,162]

6 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

I was disappointed that it was really only Viney that remonstrated with Maynard. I would have liked to see the whole team jump the bloke but hey I'm not angry.

Hopefully kB round may see some natural justice. Again not angry.

Also for a bloke his size Max does get pushed around a lot but I guess that's just the nature of the man. He is a very decent chap.

 

I'm not saying Max has to play aggro but he does have to play smarter I feel.

[Macca 16,909]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

My analysis is that we are too predictable going forward, we just hack it in like banging our heads against a brick wall instead of taking time to be more creative with the footy. Is this coaches or players? A bit of both I think. We do need to change our style, and we didn't.

So essentially we agree.  And it's the major issue (F50 entries) However, it's a complex issue as no one thing is to blame

It's on the midfield coach, the forward line coach, the head coach, the midfielders & the forwards

 

8 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

The team seems either too complacent or they have a soft underbelly. They talk a lot about wanting to have a great culture and being ruthless but actions talk and they have floundered when it mattered two years running.

I disagree, our energy, enthusiasm, attack on the ball and never-say-die attitude is first rate.  Where we fall short is on application & efficiency

Having 30 extra F50 entries in the QF final backs up my argument.  We got a lot of the ball and we got it forward but it was the way we got it forward that was the issue.

Plus, the style we have played requires quality forwards because that style leads to crowded forward lines and a lack of space for our forwards to lead into.  And a lack of space for the midfielders to kick to

So ordinary forwards with our style have very little chance

Collingwood by contrast have an extremely efficient style going into their F50 so their personnel up forward don't have to be that good

Average forwards just have to create separation as they've got heaps of space to lead into

As for culture issues, we've got 2 players with some issues.  It's not the whole club and as far as I can make out, it's no more than just 2 players

So let's not tar & feather everyone on the back of 2 players transgressing

[Clintosaurus 7,836]

7 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

I was disappointed that it was really only Viney that remonstrated with Maynard. I would have liked to see the whole team jump the bloke but hey I'm not angry.

The way the Pies are umpired, they would have been given 15 50 metre penalties and 5 goals for our response.

[layzie 33,748]

I'm tired of the excuses. Collingwood had a nightmare of a year with injuries and while their situation did come good at the right time they mostly got through it. Their most important player was missing for their final against us, it was all laid out perfectly and people still want to winge about our circumstances. If the team actually thought like this then it shows mental fragility which I've said all along can be changed but needs to be checked. 

I know people are getting tired of hearing this but when you lose 4 finals at home then I see no problem asking these questions, you don't continue to sit there and make excuses. You do that after 1 or maybe 2 tops. Do I think we got unlucky? Yes of course, especially with the Petty injury. But there are plenty that will point out that our gameplan stacked up and that we only lost by single margins and if we were more accurate blah blah. What's the excuse for that?

I'm beyond caring about hurting feelings or putting noses out of joints with this view. If you don't like it, please yourselves. When clubs like Port and Brisbane have exited finals like this in the past the overwhelming view here is that they choked. Use the same brush.

But the question is about the window and if it is closing, no it is not. Ib my view we could take a little step back this year but in the era of free agency and smart drafting we can very much put ourselves back up near 12:00 by acquiring new pieces. Our core is still strong. 

 

[Macca 16,909]

On the surface of it, if you were a neutral observer, you'd be thinking that we are trying to make things deliberately hard for our forwards

Of course, that's not true but that's what it might look like. 

There was a similar argument when Neeld coached us.  Our default move was to hug the boundary but with unskilled players, that was a recipe for disaster

And make no mistake, the Pies are leading the way with regards to levels of efficiency with F50 entries.  McRae himself was a very efficient footballer and his team reflects his style

Goodwin on the other hand was an A grade nuts & bolts player.  Nothing wrong with that either as fearless football results (remember that mantra?)

But the FD needs to adapt and offsetting crowded forward lines requires speedy entries througn the corridor.   Precision kicks as well

That's not always possible because of the pressure around the midfield but our default moves forward requires a way more scientific approach.  It's not like we don't have the personnel to carry out such an approach

[Roost it far 8,176]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

My analysis is that we are too predictable going forward, we just hack it in like banging our heads against a brick wall instead of taking time to be more creative with the footy. Is this coaches or players? A bit of both I think. We do need to change our style, and we didn't. That's where the whinge comes from.

Kozzie needs to spend more time in the middle, he has speed and creativity which we sorely lack.

The cultural issues need to be knocked on the head.

The team seems either too complacent or they have a soft underbelly. They talk a lot about wanting to have a great culture and being ruthless but actions talk and they have floundered when it mattered two years running.

Can we turn it around? Yes absolutely. Will we? I think that's yet to be proven especially with teams like Adeliade, GWS, Carlton and I think Freo pushing for a flag over the next couple of years.

We won’t change our style significantly, it’s not what Goodwin does. We did at the start of last year and although we were winning we were getting scored against too easily. It’s about minute improvements across the board,  it’s a mindset thing. Creating calm in the maelstrom. We just need to be a few percent smarter and cleaner. 

For mine it’s the glaring weakness of our otherwise incredible midfield. It’s that ability to create a little space where there is none and hit up a target outside the pack. Imagine if Petracca, Oliver and Viney could find a running Salem or Rivers once or twice more a quarter. That’s all it would take to make us a 3-4 goal a game better side. I’m not saying they don’t ever do it but if they could eradicate just a couple of their dumps out of packs we’d improve our score significantly.  How often did we get shown the footage on the Monday of the continual grab and disposal from those guys. 
For those wanting us to become the next Collingwood, all run and flair, it ain’t happening. On our day we’ve got that game covered in spades. 
Can we win it, I think we can. I also can see us finishing in 10th. It’s what makes this such a great season coming up. 
Oh and Xander Maguire is a dirty little grub 
 

[dazzledavey36 54,236]

14 minutes ago, layzie said:

I'm tired of the excuses. Collingwood had a nightmare of a year with injuries and while their situation did come good at the right time they mostly got through it. Their most important player was missing for their final against us, it was all laid out perfectly and people still want to winge about our circumstances. If the team actually thought like this then it shows mental fragility which I've said all along can be changed but needs to be checked. 

I know people are getting tired of hearing this but when you lose 4 finals at home then I see no problem asking these questions, you don't continue to sit there and make excuses. You do that after 1 or maybe 2 tops. Do I think we got unlucky? Yes of course, especially with the Petty injury. But there are plenty that will point out that our gameplan stacked up and that we only lost by single margins and if we were more accurate blah blah. What's the excuse for that?

I'm beyond caring about hurting feelings or putting noses out of joints with this view. If you don't like it, please yourselves. When clubs like Port and Brisbane have exited finals like this in the past the overwhelming view here is that they choked. Use the same brush.

But the question is about the window and if it is closing, no it is not. Ib my view we could take a little step back this year but in the era of free agency and smart drafting we can very much put ourselves back up near 12:00 by acquiring new pieces. Our core is still strong. 

 

Brilliant post.

[Macca 16,909]

3 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

I don't want to whinge because I do believe all our fwd injuries were the main issue.

There are just a couple of selections that irked me. Tmac was one. Would Grundy have marked a few of those bombs? Laurie as the sub another ... Too inexperienced for a final.( Although it's rare the sub has to play a whole game.)

Maybe Tmac was a hard call. All reports indicated he was moving well at Casey.

Come the Blues game Jvr was out so maybe we were stuck with a hampered Tmac.

Clearly they had no faith in Grundy and maybe we will never know why he was on the outer. 

If we had some quality forwards leading down the ground we certainly would have hit up the scoreboard more.

I think a lot of our season this year will rest on Jvr continuing his journey and Petty being fit. And a fully fit Fritta all year would be handy  Bbb will be a bonus. I don't hold much hope for Tmac. Can't say I've seen enough of the recruits to call on them.

I am concerned that when we make finals , the media will turn  those losses into a curse. Should be interesting.

It's going to be a big year and I for one can't wait now until it starts.

It's a frustrating mistress the old footy but one we love regardless.

At this point it's best to put aside gripes, complaints and questions and enjoy a fresh new season where we know we can and will compete. 

Go Dees.

Here's how I see it, deevs

If we had a way more efficient way with our F50 entries, it wouldn't matter so much about the quality of our forwards

But here's the thing, that style wasn't going to suddenly change midstream so once we started losing all our quality forwards, we were on a collision course to losing

Collingwood just won a flag without having a top-level forward line.  Why? Because they are exceptionally efficient with their F50 entries (and they play counter-attacking football at high speed)

They have shown the way but you know what (?), that breakneck counter-attacking style is a throwback to how footy was played prior to 2005

And McRae was a triple premiership player with a highly skilled team that knew how to move the ball quickly

So it's nothing new

We need to change and adapt and with the acquisition of McQualter, hopefully that adaptability happens

Edited January 14 by Macca

[Macca 16,909]

2 hours ago, layzie said:

I know people are getting tired of hearing this but when you lose 4 finals at home then I see no problem asking these questions, you don't continue to sit there and make excuses

Carlton went out in straight sets in 1975 and in 1976 but bounced back to win flags in 1979, 1981 & 1982

And since the early 70's, teams going out in straight sets has happened about 35 times by various teams

Carlton have been the biggest culprits transgressing 7 or 8 times but they also won 7 flags in a 20 year stretch

I reckon it comes with the territory as the law of averages tells us that these things are going to happen.  Unless you are the absolute standout best team and then it's an issue

But are we that good, layz?  I just see us as 1 of 4 or 5 contenders and we weren't clearly on top at the end of the season proper

And sometimes it goes the other way and you get lucky

Like us having an injury free season in 2021.  We got very lucky in that respect.  A lot of things fell our way and quite often, that's what it takes to win the flag

We even reversed things with regards to the umpiring in that GF

Free kick count was 19-13 in our favour against the #FreeKickBulldogs (conspiracy theory debunked)

 

Footnote:  Port Adelaide also went out in straight sets last year, not that the media will highlight that fact

#StraightSetsPort (bombed out of the finals 3 years in a row '01, '02 & '03) 

 

Edited January 14 by Macca

[Macca 16,909]

1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

There are just a couple of selections that irked me. Tmac was one. Would Grundy have marked a few of those bombs? Laurie as the sub another ... Too inexperienced for a final.( Although it's rare the sub has to play a whole game.)

We have to come to terms with the notion that Grundy's cards were clearly marked

Once a coach tells you that you are surplus to needs, the relationship is as good as over.  Especially for a player who was playing quite well in his role as ruckman

It should be remembered that Grundy himself wasn't sprouting his ability as a forward.  That was our notion

So in Grundy's eyes he's not surplus to needs elsewhere so he's on the move as soon as the axe comes down.  We can't ordinarily compare him to a player dropped because their form is poor (and is told that if he performs in the 2's, he can get back in the team)

We closed the door once we went in another direction (Gawn to ruck with JVR & T-Mac as back up ruckmen)

The ruse was naming Grundy as an emergency a few times.  In my view, Grundy wasn't under consideration

[dpositive 1,663]

i think we have the list to execute an offensive structure and rely on our defensive structure.

my tactic is 1 get in front 2 stay in front.

looking forward to undefeated for the year until a clean run through to the flag

[old dee 23,777]

On 12/01/2024 at 23:14, picket fence said:

You must be joking??! CLAYTON OLIVER is a superstar! Like Dusty is to Richtank, Bont is to dishlickers, Cripps is to Carltank..... 

He is our most influential player since Robby and RDB. Controllers use pawns? Yeah right but Oliver is the King! He also has not made it that way, and unless you know for a fact what issues he is dealing with, your comments are conjecture! Yeah I get the fact he wont play for a while BUT HE AINT IRRELEVANT....NEVER!

He maybe this year pf.