Scoop Junior's Match Preview - Dees v Dogs

[Demonland 73,136]

THE LAST HURRAH by Scoop Junior

Way back in Round 18 2003, Melbourne lost to the 16th placed Bulldogs at Telstra Dome in a game which may well have been one of the lowlights of Neale Daniher’s coaching career. Even for the struggling Demons, the game against the Dogs, who could not beat anyone in 2003, was seen as a mere formality.

Despite starting well, Melbourne soon lost its way and the confidence-sapped Dogs started to believe that they could snare a rare win. The Demons faltered late in the game and went down without a yelp by 21 points. After the match, Daniher appeared to be at his lowest ebb, almost resigned to the fact that there was only so much he could do with this group.

The Dees went on to lose their remaining four games to secure a priority pick and select the names of Colin Sylvia and Brock McLean at the national draft.

As Melbourne prepares to tackle the Dogs at the Dome this week, there are a number of parallels that can be drawn between this game and Round 18 2003. Once again, Daniher must be feeling as though he is at rock bottom and that his luck has completely deserted him.

With expectations of a big year, the Dees blew their season-opener against the Saints and then suffered key injuries in the next three games, while in the meantime succumbing to beatable opposition in the Hawks, Cats and Dockers. Melbourne then went up to the SCG with an inexperienced side and got what they expected - a 49-point drubbing by the Swans. Then, finally, with some key players returning and the side's form and luck starting to turn against Port, a couple dodgy decisions made it difficult for the team to get over the line.

With no luck in terms of injuries and umpiring, what the Demons didn’t need was Luke Hodge escaping a tripping charge to face the Dees in Round 2, Des Headland getting a 6 week suspension overhauled for Round 4 and Shaun Burgoyne having his 2 week ban overturned for Round 6.

It's just been one of those years where whatever can go wrong, has gone wrong.

Last week's game was close to the last chance the Dees had to make something of their season so with the Eagles at Subiaco next week, this week is the absolute last hurrah and that's if you happen to be the eternal optimist.

THE GAME: Western Bulldogs v Melbourne at Telstra Dome - 13 May 2007 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Western Bulldogs 64 wins Melbourne 82 wins

At the G: Western Bulldogs 3 wins Melbourne 5 wins

Since 2000: Western Bulldogs 4 wins Melbourne 9 wins

The Coaches: Eade 1 win Daniher 3 wins

MEDIA:

TV Channel 7 (delayed telecast commencing at 3.00pm)

RADIO 3AW MMM

THE BETTING: Western Bulldogs to win $1.33 Melbourne to win $2.95

LAST TIME THEY MET: Melbourne 18.11.119 d Western Bulldogs 9.14.68, Round 17, 2006, at MCG

After an even first quarter the Demons got right on top of the Dogs and with Adem Yze and David Neitz finding the goals the result was never in doubt after that.

The result put Melbourne into third place with what was seemingly an easy game coming up at Telstra Dome against likely wooden spooner Carlton. However, this game was also the last time that Melbourne has come close to fielding what resembles its full side. Byron Pickett and Aaron Davey went down with hamstring injuries during the match and Travis Johnstone withdrew before the following week's game with the same ailment. Melbourne has been plagued by injuries ever since and things have never been the same.

THE TEAMS:

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Backs: Jordan McMahon Brian Harris Dale Morris

Half Backs: Lindsay Gilbee Cameron Wight Ryan Hargrave

Centreline: Nathan Eagleton Scott West Ryan Griffen

Half Forwards: Daniel Giansiracusa Brad Johnson Matthew Boyd

Forwards: Mitchell Hahn Luke Darcy Jason Akermanis

Followers: Peter Street Daniel Cross Adam Cooney

Interchange: Dylan Addison Jarrod Harbrow Shaun Higgins Farren Ray

Emergencies: Cameron Faulkner Will Minson Sam Power

In: Harbrow Hahn

Out: Robert Murphy (injured) Sam Power

MELBOURNE:

Backs: Daniel Ward Nathan Carroll Adem Yze

Half backs: Nathan Brown Jared Rivers Daniel Bell

Centreline: Matthew Bate James McDonald Aaron Davey

Half forwards: Brad Green Brad Miller Cameron Bruce

Forwards: Colin Sylvia David Neitz Brent Moloney

Followers: Jeff White Simon Godfrey Travis Johnstone

Interchange: Lynden Dunn Paul Johnson Nathan Jones Matthew Warnock

Emergencies: James Frawley Ben Holland Byron Pickett

In: Brad Green Daniel Ward

Out: Ricky Petterd (hamstring) Byron Pickett (omitted)

HOW THE GAME WILL UNFOLD

Melbourne has a good recent record over the Dogs and has a better head-to-head record at Telstra Dome. The last time they clashed there was in Round 2 2006, with Melbourne right on top early before the fleet-footed Bulldogs ran all over them in the second half to secure a comfortable win. And that’s precisely what the Dees cannot let their opponents do if they want to register their first win for the season.

The Bulldogs are known for their kicking efficiency and pace, while Melbourne’s midfield has been a bit one-paced this year and their field kicking is arguably the worst in the league. If it’s an open, free-flowing game, say goodnight because the Doggies will rip us to shreds. The Demons need to make it a scrap in the middle of the park, and will be calling on McDonald, Jones and Godfrey to tackle hard and bottle it up.

The Dees' defence appears well equipped to handle their opposition forward set-up. Darcy will play close to goals and may be a difficult match-up with his height, but in the absence of Murphy the Dogs' forward line appears to have a sameness about it that should be manageable. Bell has been given the big jobs on the best mid-sized opposition forwards and did well on Ebert last week. Will he be given the tough task of minding Brad Johnson or will regular opponent Bruce be given the job? Higgins has kicked a number of goals as a small forward and could be the man for Bell if Bruce takes Johnson.

Another area the Dees look to have a bit of an edge is up forward. Neitz, Miller and Dunn could well exploit the Dogs' lack of height and strength in defence, provided the midfield supplies them with better quality delivery than has been on show this season. Harris has the body to match the big forwards, but Hargrave lacks size and Wight strength. Throw in Bate, who finally showed some form last week, and Sylvia, and the Demons may find themselves with an aerial advantage up forward. Speaking of Sylvia, it's about time he makes his mark on a game. Injuries aside, he just hasn't been able to make the most of his opportunities thus far. Ironically, had we beaten the Bulldogs back in Round 18 2003, we probably would have missed out on drafting him.

While a tall forward structure could worry the Doggies, it's equally likely that their quick defenders will run it out unopposed. And that's where their game plan kicks in and makes them such a dangerous side. Players like McMahon, Gilbee and Griffen are excellent movers off half back and deliver the ball well. Given space and time, they cut sides apart. So what happens when the ball spills up forward will almost be as important as the marking contest itself.

The Western Bulldogs are an interesting side. When they play well, they are accountable defensively and use their natural pace and attacking skills to kick big scores. However, they have shown the tendency to go missing and appear at times to take the wrong mindset into games. This results in them forgetting about their defensive duties and going all-out attack. When this happens and the opposition seize control in the midfield, they don't have the defensive structure to hold on and they can concede goals in a hurry. With a game against the winless 15th placed side, perhaps the Dogs may slacken off a bit in their work rate this week.

However, one would have to think that the Dogs should win this game. They have better form and more polish than the Dees and they are on their home ground. Melbourne has not played well at the Dome recently and despite a few more numbers coming back this week, doesn't appear to have the confidence to take it up to a quality side like the Bulldogs. To win, the Demons must pressure and harass, make it a scrap in midfield, apply immense forward pressure at the drop of the ball inside 50 and kick efficiently to their tall forwards. The Dees are definitely in with a chance, but on the evidence of Rounds 1-6, it's not easy to back them here.

[Hulett Packard III 166]

This is an excellent match preview. Even though you're not suggesting it's going to be easy, I feel confident for some reason.

[kieranbj 111]

With sylvia taken before brock. The loss against the Dogs may well have meant we would be with out our future captain and premier midfielder.

my mate and I (quiet unfairly) joke that Cam Hunter should be given life membership to the Dees for the part he played in delivering Brook to the club by being selected for the game against the Dogs despite being so incredibly raw.

[Scoop Junior 3,513]

With sylvia taken before brock. The loss against the Dogs may well have meant we would be with out our future captain and premier midfielder.

The picks went Dogs (priority), Blues (priority), Dees (priority), Dogs (rd 1), Dees (rd 1)

If we didn't have the priority, it would have gone Dogs (priority), Blues (priority), Dogs (rd 1), Dees (rd 1)

So the Dogs could have taken Sylvia at 3, depending on whether they rated him ahead of Ray. We then could have taken McLean at 4. So I think that game delivered us Sylvia rather than McLean.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Actually if both the dogs and blues were the only ones with the priority it would have gone, Dogs (priority), Blues (priority), Dogs (rd 1), Blues (rd 1) Dees (rd 1).

[Demon Head 292]

Actually if both the dogs and blues were the only ones with the priority it would have gone, Dogs (priority), Blues (priority), Dogs (rd 1), Blues (rd 1) Dees (rd 1).

Scoop's right because Carlton lost their first round pick that year.

[Nasher 33,617]

Scoop's right because Carlton lost their first round pick that year.

Indeed. If they'd had it, it would've gone Dogs, Blues, Dees, Dogs, Blues Dees... Carlton may well have taken Brock at pick 5 had they not had it confiscated. I guess we'll never know now. Bad luck Blues. :D