The Ultimate Forward

[Whispering_Jack 29,691]

In my preview about Melbourne’s game vs GWS Giants this Sunday, I bemoan the team’s current forward line woes.

However, SEN’s The Ultimate Forward puts three Demon players in the AFL’s top 20 forwards - Christian Petracca (8th), Bayley Fritsch (10th) and Kysaiah Pickett (12th).

The full list with their ratings is ~

1 - Toby Greene (GWS): 58.4
2 - Charlie Curnow (CAR): 54.9
3 - Mitch Lewis (HAW): 51.25 
4 - Jeremy Cameron (GEE): 51.21
5 - Taylor Walker (ADE): 50.9
6 - Tom Hawkins (GEE): 49.3
7 - Jeremy Finlayson (PA): 44.7
8 - Christian Petracca (MEL): 44.1
9 - Joe Daniher (BRI): 43.9
10 - Bayley Fritsch (MEL): 43.1
11 - Charlie Cameron (BRI): 43.07
12 - Kysaiah Pickett (MEL): 42.9
13 - Izak Rankine (ADE): 41.67
14 - Kyle Langford (ESS): 41.64
15 - Aaron Naughton (WB): 41.60
16 - Jack Lukosius (GCS): 41.4
17 - eq Nick Larkey (NM): 41.2
17 - eq Eric Hipwood (BRI): 41.2
19 - Todd Marshall (PA): 40.4
20 - Oscar Allen (WCE): 40.3

So why aren’t we scoring freely at the moment?

One reason could be that Clayton Oliver’s injury is forcing Christian Petracca to spend more time in the middle. However, it’s still got us more than a bit stumped about the recent run of inaccuracy in kicking for goal and the dramatic decline in scoring over the past five rounds.

[Older demon 2,736]

Agree, no Clayton means more mid-time for Trac who in the ideal world should be our Dusty. I put the inaccuracy down to Chandler and Nibbler missing set shots and lots of long shots. We have had very few lead up marks with a set shot from 30 metres out. I suspect JVR hasn't learnt to lead and tends to be the pack mark forward. Fritch occasionally leads but we bomb to a contest hoping the crumbs scout and snap. They keep missing snaps under pressure.

[Lord Travis 10,675]

It’s weird that Trac is classified as a forward. While he spends some time forward, he’s clearly a midfielder. He averages nearly 30 touches a game, approx 7 clearances a game, spends most of his game time around the ball and averages less than a goal a game. We’d love to have the flexibility to play him more forward at times, and we’d love for him to improve his scoring accuracy (28% and worst in the league!), but fact is he’s a midfielder and shouldn’t be part of these rankings. 

On another note, these rankings are dog****. I’ll eat my hat if Mitch Lewis is better than Jeremy Cameron, Tex Walker, Hawkins, Finlayson etc. Larkey being down the bottom of the list statistically equal with Hipwood is also a laugh. Credibility of these rankings is zero. There’s gathering data, then there’s analyzing data. Champion data can perhaps gather data fine, but their analysis is as accurate as a blind 4 year old [censored] themselves while watching Teletubbies and ranking things based off color. 

[Mel Bourne 4,515]

As far as our decline in accuracy is concerned, we have a case fairly contagious yips. 
 

It’s been hard to watch, but I’m not concerned that it’s anything to worry about. These things tend to move through like waves. What I’m more concerned about is the lack of connection, the lack of viable one-on-one options, the cluster-fudges of pack contests that produce too-little fruit, and the lack of crumbers at the foot of these contests. 
 

As far as this list goes, ranking-wise there’s a pretty decent chasm between 1st-6th and the rest. Interesting that Trac is in there, given he’s the only midfielder on the list. You’d like to see Bailey and Kossie higher, obviously. 

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,674]

I'll put this to all Demonlanders out there, plenty of discussions have taken place which i haven't been completely over. 

No doubt it's been mentioned to within an inch of its , I've been thinking about our forward line alot lately. (surprise, surprise 🤪)

If BBB were to make his way back in our Forward line would a predominantly front 6 of the following work?

Of course throughout the game players can interchange in and out e.g Gawn, Grundy, Petracca, Sparrow, Viney etc.

Pickett    Brown    Chandler/Sparrow

Fritsch   Van Rooyen   Smith/ANB

I can understand F50 pressure might be an issue but i do feel Smith, Fritsch and Van Rooyen do create tackle pressure inside F50 to help keep the ball in our scoring zone.

Our scoring before with our existing small forwards hasn't been damaging of late.

It's concerning i like others in the Deenation feel another tall marking forward will help out JVR considerably.

This would no doubt create some balance issues but could also help if we have an injury to a tall having an extra in the line up and the sub could essentially be a mid/ small fwd. (best of both worlds)

This may limit Gawn and Grundy around the ground but could also be effective in last qtrs as it would allow them to be fresher to jump all over them in the ruck and give us greater ruck ascendency.

The overall defensive pressure systems we have in place might be enhanced especially if Gawn is allowed to spend more time behind the ball and set up the wall of doom.

If things seem to clunky and don't work out we can always bring on the tactical sub which would preferably be a mid or small/fwd.

Would the presence of another Tall Forward in BBB hinder our overall defensive pressure in F50 and allow the ball to come out to easy or create extra panic for other teams defending the marking presences of BBB, Fritta, JVR and Smith?

Essentially an extra tall for a small forward/mid?

 

[Gorgoroth 12,910]

Personally I’d be bring bowey back into the side and I’d be moving Salem on ball, even if that means Gus has to go back to HBF as well. 
Salems kicking and decision making should be more utilised forward of centre. 

[Brownie 5,967]

9 hours ago, Older demon said:

Agree, no Clayton means more mid-time for Trac who in the ideal world should be our Dusty. I put the inaccuracy down to Chandler and Nibbler missing set shots and lots of long shots. We have had very few lead up marks with a set shot from 30 metres out. I suspect JVR hasn't learnt to lead and tends to be the pack mark forward. Fritch occasionally leads but we bomb to a contest hoping the crumbs scout and snap. They keep missing snaps under pressure.

Geez @Older demon from watching JVR all year at Casey last year, he leads really well.

However, the ball was coming in faster and he had space then. I don't think he's had any space to lead into. Watch his runs up the field to get lead up marks, he knows how to lead.

He's a young kid trying to cope with one or two best defenders on him and a ball usually lobbed in like a tennis ball.

As for Petracca, his set shots give him the complete yips right now. The last thing he wants to do is a drop punt from 30m out. He can't be considered our best forward.

Funny list.

[leave it to deever 17,506]

Traccas set shots are only slightly better than Max. As such it nullifies his forward prowess.

[Little Goffy 14,399]

In SEN's system, Petracca's rating of 44.1 includes ten points for inside 50s, 6 for goal assists, and 17 for score involvements. So, 33 out of his 44 points is coming from what are basically attacking midfield efforts. It does reflect that he is the most effective attacking midfielder in the game, but it doesn't turn him into a forward.

Pickett's rating reflects the fact that he is a small forward doing his all-round job extremely well and people need to get all the way off his back. Seriously, it is 2023 and there are still people who think small forwards have failed if one in three of their games don't sparkle on the stat sheet.

Bailey Fritsch is the best medium forward in the game.

The issue is that Curnow, Lewis, Cameron, Walker, Finlayson, and Daniher are the bulk of the top ratings, and in the old baseball term, their 'value above replacement' is pretty significant if their replacements are Van Rooyen and Smith.

Looking at the same ratings process for Tom McDonald and Ben Brown in 2021, you (roughly) get;

McDonald - 36

Brown - 39

They are both a level outside the top-20 group, but that's two key position talls making a very good contribution.

In contrast, Van Rooyen is going basically solo as a tall forward - our only player over 190cm to kick more than ten goals so far this season. His rating;

Van Rooyen - 30

He's a very respectable young forward, but we are 'missing' about 45 points worth of tall forward contribution compared to our own 2021 team, and the key forwards were not the superstars of that team.

So, there's your answer!

[Lucifers Hero 39,320]

Best to check the criteria behind the rankings when commenting on Petracca which are:

The points for the rankings have been weighted as follows: 

• 6 points per goal:  Unknown
• 4 points per goal assist:  2nd in Total GA
• 3 points per mark inside 50:  Unknown
• 3 points per tackle inside 50:  Unknown
• 2 points per score involvement: 1st in Total SI
• 1.5 points per inside 50:  1st in Total i50
• 1 point per behind:  Unknown 

Petracca AFL ranking in red

We may not like their methodology but given their critieria he deserves to the ranking.

fwiw, I don't like their methodology so wouldn't put him in the same category as the tall forwards, small forwards etc. 

If nothing else it shows his impact for our team and his often underrated capacity to be the 'game changer' something that can't be measured by any stat.

Edited June 29, 2023 by Lucifers Hero