The Run Home

[leave it to deever 17,517]

14 hours ago, A F said:

I think we can win it from 4th. Particularly, if we play Collingwood in the QF.

Can you recall the last time we played pies in a Q?

[titan_uranus 25,043]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Scott has already started the mind games declaring:  We are the danger...!

Lets wait and see what they are made of when they play the top 3 teams in the coming weeks - the teams they need to beat in the finals.  Beat Coll (G), Port (KP) and Lions (Gabba) and it could make them GF favourites.

They will be going all out to finish 5th and get a home final.  If an an interstate team sneaks into 8th, most likely GWS the game will be at KP.  That would be a fascinating first final as GWS beat them at KP and both teams have improved since.

Hopefully the physical toll of their run home wears them down in the finals and they don't go beyond the second week.

The funny thing is they could easily be 8th at the end of this round (they lose, St Kilda beat North, GWS beats GC and then one of Essendon and the Dogs win, all of whom get to 10 wins and pass Geelong). 

They could even be out of the 8 if they shed a few percentage points and Carlton thump WC again (this is a bit fanciful as the gap is 11%…but WC are putrid…).

Of course, I rate them infinitely above St Kilda, Essendon and the Dogs, so they shouldn’t stay behind them for too long.

[leave it to deever 17,517]

14 minutes ago, layzie said:

Haha righto Chris Heisenberg!

In all seriousness they could be if everything goes right for them. This Brisbane and Geelong game is a real mover and shaker. 

I reckon the Lions will roll them in Brisbane quite easily.  Despite our memorable win, they looked very good indeed. And the Gabba is like Kardinia park for oppo teams. So best of luck Scott. Not.

[Kent 2,914]

20 hours ago, binman said:

Based on tbe bookies odds for the next two games and my estimate of the likely odds in the remaining games, the odds of us winning our remaining 6 home and away games is a tick over 9-1.

generous i would have thought

 

[old55 23,691]

It takes some good fortune to win the flag.  We have a competitive team, but things need to line up and it's possible from year to year that this doesn't happen.   I think we are well placed at this time, this year.

There's every chance we finish 4th and get an early crack at Collingwood in the QF, a win would clear a path to the flag, all at the MCG.  If we can avoid further injuries to star players and get Oliver and Fritsch back before finals, then our squad will be in good shape with a lot of depth and flexibility across all lines - forced by the injuries that we have had.  I think we've got at least 30 players who would not be out of place on the premiership dais and that is a big number.

I think the opportunity is aligning, whether we are good enough to seize it will be the question.  We're up against some formidable opponents in Collingwood, Port, Brisbane and Geelong who all have strong claims.

 

[leave it to deever 17,517]

11 minutes ago, old55 said:

It takes some good fortune to win the flag.  We have a competitive team, but things need to line up and it's possible from year to year that this doesn't happen.   I think we are well placed at this time, this year.

There's every chance we finish 4th and get an early crack at Collingwood in the QF, a win would clear a path to the flag, all at the MCG.  If we can avoid further injuries to star players and get Oliver and Fritsch back before finals, then our squad will be in good shape with a lot of depth and flexibility across all lines - forced by the injuries that we have had.  I think we've got at least 30 players who would not be out of place on the premiership dais and that is a big number.

I think the opportunity is aligning, whether we are good enough to seize it will be the question.  We're up against some formidable opponents in Collingwood, Port, Brisbane and Geelong who all have strong claims.

 

A lot I feel will come down to what happens with Oliver and Fritta. Also the Grundy situation and if Bbb will get better and if Milks holds his form. A lot of variables. We have been hampered by injuries from the get go this year. Hopefully we get some luck. 

[Demonland 73,140]

 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

19 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

My biggest concern in all this is Geelong.

I don't want them coming in hot. Even if they don't over take us inside the top 4, if they go on a run like they did last year, it could end as badly as last year did.

I want the Lions to smash them this weekend and destroy their faux confidence. 

Ok, firstly I think we can safely dismiss them finishing Top 4. They would need to need to win 2 more games than Melbourne and given our draw and their draw that's highly unlikely to happen. They will in all likelihood finish Top 8 as they would only need to finish 3 3 to make it. I reckon they'll finish 4 2 and finish 6th. If that happens the worst case scenario would me Melbourne finishing 2nd or 3rd, losing a Qualifying and having to host them in a Semi. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

I'm amazed that they're only paying $8 for the Premiership because they'd need to win 4 straight finals, with potentially 2 or 3 of them interstate. Everyone talks about last year's run. The reality is that had an incredibly soft draw in 2022 including playing both West Coast & North twice. They could easily have lost their Qualifying Final and then I don't think they would have been Premiers. Instead they got an easy Prelim against Brisbane and an easy Grand Final against Sydney, both of which had effectively plsyed their Grand Finals the previous week. This year is very different. Similar in a way to Richmond last year. Then of course all the 'experts' were saying they could win from anywhere (even though there was no historical evidence, just like Geelong) Did they? Will Geelong this year? Highly unlikely.

[YearOfTheDees 3,266]

Clarkson's first game back to be against us. 

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

Probably makes the North game a bit more of a danger game. Tassie is never easy, but there’ll be added emotion to this game.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

It’ll also be his 400th game as a Senior coach. Fantastic.

[Wodjathefirst 2,653]

19 hours ago, Demon17 said:

Maybe, but my hope is we just avoid the Pies in a prelim and a GF spot will be ours at least.  Thus I'm hoping we finish 4th to get rid of the Pies one way or another in Week 1.

When I start thinking about who I would rather play or not play against in the finals I (somewhat stupidly) begin to worry and stress big time. Can’t keep doing this for the next six weeks so…

For self press preservation reasons I am trying to adopt the mantra ‘anyone, anywhere, anytime’.  At our best (and luck with injuries) we can beat anyone. GO DEES.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

Lots of speculation about Melbourne's finishing position in the H&A. All will be a lot clearer after this weekend. If Port beat Collingwood then we can't reach 2nd. If Brisbane beat Geelong 3rd will be difficult. We beat Adelaide and 4th is pretty much sown up. I'm still thinking Collingwood vs Melbourne in a Qualifying is odds on at this stage which would be an excellent outcome, second only to Melbourne finishing 2nd and hosting a Qualifying at the MCG against Port or Brisbane (considerably less likely). I predict Geelong will finish 6th and on that basis finishing 4th will also work very well as we wouldn't play them in a Semi.   

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

1 hour ago, At the break of Gawn said:

It’ll also be his 400th game as a Senior coach. Fantastic.

If you're the sort of player to need this sort of impetus to a) commit to actions and b) have your skills magically refined compared to all the rest of your matches, then you're in all sorts 👌

[Adam The God 30,418]

1 hour ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Lots of speculation about Melbourne's finishing position in the H&A. All will be a lot clearer after this weekend. If Port beat Collingwood then we can't reach 2nd. If Brisbane beat Geelong 3rd will be difficult. We beat Adelaide and 4th is pretty much sown up. I'm still thinking Collingwood vs Melbourne in a Qualifying is odds on at this stage which would be an excellent outcome, second only to Melbourne finishing 2nd and hosting a Qualifying at the MCG against Port or Brisbane (considerably less likely). I predict Geelong will finish 6th and on that basis finishing 4th will also work very well as we wouldn't play them in a Semi.   

The absolute ideal scenario is us hosting Port or Brisbane at the MCG in a QF. But I concede this is very unlikely, it could happen though and that's a better outcome than Collingwood in a QF. We can win the flag from 4th, 3rd or 2nd.

[Demonland 73,140]

1 minute ago, A F said:

The absolute ideal scenario is us hosting Port or Brisbane at the MCG in a QF. But I concede this is very unlikely, it could happen though and that's a better outcome than Collingwood in a QF. We can win the flag from 4th, 3rd or 2nd.

I'd rather play Coll at the G or Port in Port than Bris at the Gabba.

[Adam The God 30,418]

7 minutes ago, Demonland said:

I'd rather play Coll at the G or Port in Port than Bris at the Gabba.

Agreed. But if we finished 2nd, we'd be playing Port or Brisbane at the MCG. Probably Port. I can't see Brisbane finishing top 2 now, but I've been wrong before.

[beelzebub 23,383]

Putting my Capt Obvious cap on now.........

We've see only too recently how a season's/final's campaign can run into the ground through injury.

This year will be no different..  Hopefully we're getting players back  ( in time ) to bolster our ranks... Other teams have avoid injuries too. They say there's a fair amount of luck in this game... Hopefully ours is better than others

We've seen a fair few players rotate through our selections this year. That might even provide a dividend later.

Still much to be played out before  September

[Willmoy1947 4,140]

2 hours ago, Demonland said:

 

By that time the North players should be real happy about the dirty being done on Brett Ratten and Clarkson being shoved into his place..

[beelzebub 23,383]

7 minutes ago, Willmoy1947 said:

By that time the North players should be real happy about the dirty being done on Brett Ratten and Clarkson being shoved into his place..

Think if I'm Rat....I'm putting the feelers out 😉

[Satan 2,881]

So much for a game vs north with no interest

[Demonland 73,140]

 

[Jaded No More 68,974]

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

 

And of course that one was against us 
 

[beelzebub 23,383]

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

And of course that one was against us 
 

Twas early days...  they're flying well now... eh..

Couldn't land on a carrier the size of the G

[Willmoy1947 4,140]

You don't pick up the equal best Coach and future AFL Board Membership without being able to do something other than change rules and eke out favourable draws for back end of seasons...