Trust In This Team

[Jaded No More 68,903]

23 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I think of all the things I dislike about Demonland, revisionism tops the list. 

We were 17-1-4 with a percentage of 130%. That’s the entire season of course, not just the last month. 

Pre-bye we beat Geelong (prelim finalist), GWS away (they finished 7th and won a final), Sydney (finished 6th), the Dogs at Marvel, Brisbane, plus St Kilda, Richmond, Fremantle and Carlton (10th-13th - so not finalists but also not bottom sides). Post-bye we also beat Port away (prelim finalist).

Saying we didn’t click until round 20 ignores the stunning body of work we put into the first 17 weeks. Saying we got “beaten up” by the Dogs ignores that we’d already beaten them at Marvel, and is inaccurate anyway - that was a 20 point loss where it was single digits midway through the 4th quarter. 

We beat 16 of the 17 other sides that year (only missing out on Collingwood).

Our 2021 season was, from start to finish, supreme.

Thank you!

We were brilliant from round 1 until the grand final in 2021.  We haven’t been the same since and we will probably never see as perfect a season as 2021. 

[binman 42,897]

53 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

Collingwood seem to be doing a fairly good job at it, Binman. Or do you still not rate them?

Not being facetious, but have you watched their games this season? 

They have not played every game at finals like pressure. Nowhere near it, as evidenced by the fact that they are currently 8th for average contested possession per game (we are 2nd behind the Saints). 

I have watched all of their games and would argue they were only fully wound up against the Cats, Port, Tigers and the Bombers (and then only in the last q). Their pressure was average in their wins against  the Saints, Crows, Giants and Blues.

Of course I rate the Pies. But I also think they are well and truly overrated. 

In my opinion, the probability of us winning the flag is higher than the Pies winning it. In fact, i think the Lions are a better chance of wining the falg than the Pies. 
 

[bobby1554 1,244]

18 minutes ago, binman said:

Not being facetious, but have you watched their games this season? 

They have not played every game at finals like pressure. Nowhere near it, as evidenced by the fact that they are currently 8th for average contested possession per game (we are 2nd behind the Saints). 

I have watched all of their games and would argue they were only fully wound up against the Cats, Port, Tigers and the Bombers (and then only in the last q). Their pressure was average in their wins against  the Saints, Crows, Giants and Blues.

Of course I rate the Pies. But I also think they are well and truly overrated. 

In my opinion, the probability of us winning the flag is higher than the Pies winning it. In fact, i think the Lions are a better chance of wining the falg than the Pies. 
 

And yet they still won. I would suggest that if our pressure was off against those teams, maybe not Giants, we would lose.

As much as it pains me to say, and I would think most on this forum would agree, the flag is theirs to lose

[old dee 23,787]

I don't rate us, we had the near perfect season in 2021. Game plan had not been worked out, a number of players played together at their peak and almost no injuries. Hopefully I will be proved wrong but the next 3 matches will show if we are genuine GF participants. At present we look like the Dogs won the flag when everything fell into place and then faded to makeing  up the numbers in September. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Why do people keep comparing us to the Dogs of 16? Because they want us to fail and say I told you so?

In the two years after their flag the Dogs finished 10th in 2017 and 13th in 2018. They weren't even making up the numbers.

We went 16-6 to finish second in 2022 and our exit was disappointing yes, there were some reasons for that. This year we've been in the 8 at the end of every round and it remains to be seen where we finish. I do agree that the next three games are huge, I'd be happy with a 2-1 record.

[binman 42,897]

53 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

As much as it pains me to say, and I would think most on this forum would agree, the flag is theirs to lose

I agree most posters would have them ahead of us in terms of who is more likely to win the flag. 

But theirs to lose?

If you are right, and most do in fact agree with you, this would be the perfect example of what i mean by them being overrated.

The Pies are currently $3.75 to win the flag. We are currently equal second favorite with the lions on $5.

Personally, if I was to set a market, i'd have the dees favorite at $5, the lions at $5.50 and the pies at $6. But that's me.

So, lets' say the market has it got it right and $3.75 for the Pies to win the flag represents the 'true' odds ie they accurately reflect the actual probability of the Pies winning the flag. At those odds, they still fail to win the flag more often than they win it.

One only needs to revisit our 2022 season to reinforce that point - at the corresponding point in last year's season we were about $3.75 to win the flag too. 

 

Edited May 26, 2023 by binman

[Sydee 4,413]

52 minutes ago, old dee said:

I don't rate us, we had the near perfect season in 2021. Game plan had not been worked out, a number of players played together at their peak and almost no injuries. Hopefully I will be proved wrong but the next 3 matches will show if we are genuine GF participants. At present we look like the Dogs won the flag when everything fell into place and then faded to makeing  up the numbers in September. 

Gee I do hope you are wrong - I do agree that the next few weeks will be telling in terms of getting a read on where we sit amongst the contenders. 

[DemonWA 3,933]

Lots of good discussion in here. 

But still blows my mind that so many people (dees fans too!) post about footy as if the only way any enjoyment can be taken from it is to see your team win a flag (and/or be the most inform team in the comp at any given point). 

This is the best Melbourne team I've seen in my lifetime. Generational players on every line.  I've seen a flag. Might see another one,  might not. Either way, stressing about it wont change a thing. Strap in and enjoy the highs AND lows imo. 

[biggestred 5,076]

2 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

Lots of good discussion in here. 

But still blows my mind that so many people (dees fans too!) post about footy as if the only way any enjoyment can be taken from it is to see your team win a flag (and/or be the most inform team in the comp at any given point). 

This is the best Melbourne team I've seen in my lifetime. Generational players on every line.  I've seen a flag. Might see another one,  might not. Either way, stressing about it wont change a thing. Strap in and enjoy the highs AND lows imo. 

personally im desperate for another flag because a) this is the best dees team ive seen so we need to make the most of it and b) i want to see one in the flesh.

[DemonWA 3,933]

Just now, biggestred said:

personally im desperate for another flag because a) this is the best dees team ive seen so we need to make the most of it and b) i want to see one in the flesh.

Seems to be a common thought process. Sad to be so desperate that it sucks the enjoyment out of the home and away season though?!

[Adam The God 30,221]

1 hour ago, Engorged Onion said:

I'd be good to get an overall picture of how many quarters won scoring Collingwood (if they are a benchmark) have won.

The same for how many quarters won for pressure vs  opposition

Not that elite pressure equals winning each quarter of course...

Does Wheelo ratings do that @binman - I just checked and may have overlooked it

Collingwood:

Round 1 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 2 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost. 

Round 3 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 4 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost.

Round 5 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter drawn.

Round 6 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 7 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 8 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 9 - 4 quarters won.

Round 10 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

TOTAL - 26 quarters won, 13 quarters lost, 1 quarter drawn.

Melbourne:

Round 1 - 4 quarters won.

Round 2 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 3 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 4 - 4 quarters won.

Round 5 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost.

Round 6 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 7 - 4 quarters won.

Round 8 - 2 quarters won, 1 quarter drawn, 1 quarter lost.

Round 9 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 10 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost.

TOTAL - 27 quarters won, 12 quarters lost, 1 quarter drawn.

So we've had similar draws and won one more quarter, lead them in most statistics, except they've fallen over the line in two games when we failed to against Port.

[binman 42,897]

38 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

Lots of good discussion in here. 

But still blows my mind that so many people (dees fans too!) post about footy as if the only way any enjoyment can be taken from it is to see your team win a flag (and/or be the most inform team in the comp at any given point). 

This is the best Melbourne team I've seen in my lifetime. Generational players on every line.  I've seen a flag. Might see another one,  might not. Either way, stressing about it wont change a thing. Strap in and enjoy the highs AND lows imo. 

I could not agree more.

I'd add that framing each game as some sort of marker for our premiership chances makes it harder to objectively assess the performance on its merits.

The Suns and Tiger's games are perfect examples of that phenomena. Many mark our performances in those games down based on where the Tigers and Suns were on the ladder.

But both teams brought super pressure and played out of their skins, much like Port. Assessed in isolation, they were impressive wins by us.

It matters nought that that both teams have struggled since. Applying some sort of retrospective weighting to our performance based on their current ladder position (or even their prior position) means the games are not properly assessed on their merits. And does a disservice to the Tigers and Port for that matter too. 

A similar dynamic will play out if Tigers roll Port this weekend - 'see that's how poor we are travelling, even the tigers can beat Port'.

Edited May 26, 2023 by binman

[beelzebub 23,348]

21 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

Lots of good discussion in here. 

But still blows my mind that so many people (dees fans too!) post about footy as if the only way any enjoyment can be taken from it is to see your team win a flag (and/or be the most inform team in the comp at any given point). 

This is the best Melbourne team I've seen in my lifetime. Generational players on every line.  I've seen a flag. Might see another one,  might not. Either way, stressing about it wont change a thing. Strap in and enjoy the highs AND lows imo. 

Please don't think me rude,may i ask how long you've followed our beloved team ?

Me..  since feb 1965...  ive enjoyed 1.......ÒNE  Premiership.   Unfortunately remember decades of being irrelevant.  Suffered  through 2 inglorious decapitations 88 and 2000.

I'm rather keen on the idea of a flag...   not so much the nice participatory ribbon.

Cheers

[beelzebub 23,348]

6 minutes ago, A F said:

Collingwood:

Round 1 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 2 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost. 

Round 3 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 4 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost.

Round 5 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter drawn.

Round 6 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 7 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 8 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 9 - 4 quarters won.

Round 10 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

TOTAL - 26 quarters won, 13 quarters lost, 1 quarter drawn.

Melbourne:

Round 1 - 4 quarters won.

Round 2 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 3 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 4 - 4 quarters won.

Round 5 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost.

Round 6 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 7 - 4 quarters won.

Round 8 - 2 quarters won, 1 quarter drawn, 1 quarter lost.

Round 9 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 10 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost.

TOTAL - 27 quarters won, 12 quarters lost, 1 quarter drawn.

So we've had similar draws and won one more quarter, lead them in most statistics, except they've fallen over the line in two games when we failed to against Port.

And theyre on TOP..   nice view there ;)

Another good display that stats can mislead.... imo

[binman 42,897]

Just now, beelzebub said:

And theyre on TOP..   nice view there ;)

Another good display that stats can mislead.... imo

We were on top this time last year too.

[old dee 23,787]

35 minutes ago, A F said:

Collingwood:

Round 1 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 2 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost. 

Round 3 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 4 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost.

Round 5 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter drawn.

Round 6 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 7 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 8 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 9 - 4 quarters won.

Round 10 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

TOTAL - 26 quarters won, 13 quarters lost, 1 quarter drawn.

Melbourne:

Round 1 - 4 quarters won.

Round 2 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost.

Round 3 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 4 - 4 quarters won.

Round 5 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost.

Round 6 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 7 - 4 quarters won.

Round 8 - 2 quarters won, 1 quarter drawn, 1 quarter lost.

Round 9 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost.

Round 10 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost.

TOTAL - 27 quarters won, 12 quarters lost, 1 quarter drawn.

So we've had similar draws and won one more quarter, lead them in most statistics, except they've fallen over the line in two games when we failed to against Port.

All the above doesn't matter, the pies have won 2 games more than us and yet to play eagles, roos or hawks. appear to be playing with way more confidence. I might add they played for a month without a ruckman. 

[Adam The God 30,221]

Just now, old dee said:

All the above doesn't matter, the pies have won 2 games more than us and yet to play eagles, roos or hawks. appear to be playing with way more confidence. I might add they played for a month without a ruckman. 

By the same token, nothing matters except finishing in the top 4. And currently, we're in there.

Ruckmen are the most overrated players on the ground IMO. The reason Max has been so elite is down to his work around the ground, particularly, his elite marking.

[old55 23,548]

For the slow learners:

• Be positive all H&A, win the flag - universally happy
• Be angst-ridden all H&A, win the flag - momentarily happy
• Be positive all H&A, don't win the flag - mostly happy
• Be angst-ridden all H&A, don't win the flag - universally miserable

[binman 42,897]

42 minutes ago, old dee said:

All the above doesn't matter, the pies have won 2 games more than us and yet to play eagles, roos or hawks. appear to be playing with way more confidence. I might add they played for a month without a ruckman. 

And we had the best ruck of his generation missing for three weeks (four if you count the lions game, which is reasonable given how early that game he was injured), Lever and Hibberd both withdrawn right before games, Petty missing last week and Salem missing the first 9 rounds. 

We also have had much harder fixture than the Pies in terms of travel and breaks between games. 

I'm not sure how you could argue they are playing with 'way more confidence'.

We are scoring at a clip that we haven't under Goody since 2018 and continue to be defensively sound. After barely topping 100 points last year, we have done so 5 times already.

I take your point that they still have to play eagles, roos or hawks. Their percentage will no doubt improve on the back of those games.

But the fact remains that after 10 rounds, despite having lost 2 more games than the pies our percentage is 7 points better.  Doesn’t scream 'playing with way more confidence' to me.

If you came from Mars (planet not stadium) and read all the Pie worship palaver, you'd be justified in thinking they are some generational team that is a lock for this year’s flag.

When in reality, as exciting as they are to watch, and as impressive as many of their performances have been this year and last, they were in struggle town for years, lost 2 of 3 finals last year, didn't even make the Grand Final let alone win it and won their last flag 13 years ago.

Yet somehow that record is more imposing than ours:

• just missed finals in 2017
• prelim in 2018
• just missed finals in 2020
• win the flag in 2021
• make finals in 2022 after finishing second on the ladder (and yes, out in straight sets, but the pies only won one more final than us last year)
• not falling out of the top 4 for all but one or two games across two and half seasons(2021, 2022 and 2023) 
• currently sitting fourth at 7-3 with the hardest part of our season travel wise behind us and the highest percentage in the AFL (despite having lost more games than the supposedly high scoring pies and lions)

But sure, tell me all about how amazing Collingwood are. 
 

Edited May 26, 2023 by binman

[old dee 23,787]

2 minutes ago, binman said:

And we had the best ruck of his generation missing for three weeks (four if you count the lions game, which is reasonable given how early that game he was injured), Lever and Hibberd both withdrawn right before games, Petty missing last week and Salem missing the first 9 rounds. 

We also have had much harder fixture than the Pies in terms of travel and breaks between games. 

I'm not sure how you could argue they are playing with 'way more confidence'.

We are scoring at a clip that we haven't under Goody since 2018 and continue to be defensively sound. After barely topping 100 points last year, we have done so 5 times already.

I take your point that they still have to play eagles, roos or hawks. Their percentage will no doubt improve on the back of those games.

But the fact remains that after 10 rounds, despite having lost 2 more games than the pies our percentage is 7 points better.  Doesn’t scream 'playing with way more confidence' to me.

If you came from Mars (planet not stadium) and read all the Pie worship palaver, you'd be justified in thinking they are some generational team that is a lock for this year’s flag.

When in reality, as exciting as they are to watch, and as impressive as many of their performances have been this year and last, they were in struggle town for years, lost 2 of 3 finals last year, didn't even make the Grand Final let alone win it and won their last flag 13 years ago.

Yet somehow that record is more imposing than ours:

• just missed finals in 2017
• prelim in 2018
• just missed finals in 2019 and 2020
• win the flag in 2021
• make finals in 2022 after finishing second on the ladder (and yes, out in straight sets, but the pies only won one more final than us last year)
• not falling out of the top 4 for all but one or two games across two full seasons in 2021 and 2022, or this year for that matter
• currently sitting fourth at 7-3 with the hardest part of our season travel wise behind us and the highest percentage in the AFL (despite having lost more games than the supposedly high scoring pies and lions)

But sure, tell me all about how amazing Collingwood are. 
 

The above is mostly irrelevant. This is season 2023. They have played better sides than us and are 2 games clear. That is all that needs to be said. 

[DemonWA 3,933]

1 hour ago, beelzebub said:

Please don't think me rude,may i ask how long you've followed our beloved team ?

Me..  since feb 1965...  ive enjoyed 1.......ÒNE  Premiership.   Unfortunately remember decades of being irrelevant.  Suffered  through 2 inglorious decapitations 88 and 2000.

I'm rather keen on the idea of a flag...   not so much the nice participatory ribbon.

Cheers

You've got about 20 years on me, but I don't think it changes my point all that much!

[Demon Disciple 12,119]

2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Why do people keep comparing us to the Dogs of 16? Because they want us to fail and say I told you so?

Our 2021 victory was nothing like the Dogs in 16 aside from premiership droughts being broken. The Dogs were simply the best team of the finals, they werent the best team of the year. We were. We were minor premiers, and easily accounted for all comers in our finals.

[Demon Disciple 12,119]

20 minutes ago, binman said:

But sure, tell me all about how amazing Collingwood are. 
 

The filth are a good team, no doubt. They have been the best team of the year to date (so were we this time last year).

I just think that come finals when wins mean the most and fear of losing is all the more powerful, they'll once again be found wanting.

 

[binman 42,897]

14 minutes ago, old dee said:

The above is mostly irrelevant. This is season 2023. They have played better sides than us and are 2 games clear. That is all that needs to be said. 

Is that what you were saying about us this time last year OD?

[Jaded No More 68,903]

2 hours ago, DemonWA said:

Lots of good discussion in here. 

But still blows my mind that so many people (dees fans too!) post about footy as if the only way any enjoyment can be taken from it is to see your team win a flag (and/or be the most inform team in the comp at any given point). 

This is the best Melbourne team I've seen in my lifetime. Generational players on every line.  I've seen a flag. Might see another one,  might not. Either way, stressing about it wont change a thing. Strap in and enjoy the highs AND lows imo. 

I think for those of us who go every week without fail, even during the dark times, not being able to be at the game in 2021 really hurts.

I want to see a flag, really see it, and I think this is as good a chance as we've ever had. So it it disheartening when you see such a talented list not maximise their strength.

But of course this position is infinitely better than the dark days when you were no chance to win a game, let alone a flag. Doesn't mean we can't be critical of the side if they aren't performing at their best. 

Edited May 26, 2023 by Jaded No More