Western

B: Daniel, Darcy, Gardiner

HB: Richards, L.Jones, Dale

C: B.Smith, Treloar, Liberatore

HF: Weightman, Naughton, West

F: Ugle-Hagan, Lobb, Hannan

FOLL: English, Bontempelli, Macrae

IC: Williams, Duryea, Johannisen, Keath

Reserves

B: Khamis, Busslinger, Crozier

HB: Scott, O'Brien, Raak

C: Baker, McLean, Bedendo

HF: Vandermeer, R.Smith, A.Jones

F: Clarke, Bruce, Gallagher

FOLL: Sweet, McComb, McNeil

IC: Garcia, Cleary, N\A, N\A

 

The Western Bulldogs have 2 spots available for train ons.

 

I feel Dogs will be top eight again in 2023 they have a bit of Star power and have strengthened their forward line with Lobb. Injuries could derail their year.

Great midfield, stacked fwd line, poor defence

theyll be up and down like usual until they fix the defence

surprised Bevo got an extension 

If jones is as fit as they think (decent length contract for someone his age) then they’ll be in much better shape. I feel the height in their forward line is very dangerous. Lobb releasing naughton to get less attention, possibly even 1 on 1s is a huge threat. Love watching him play, just wished his jumper didn’t have any white on it 

4 hours ago, DubDee said:

Great midfield, stacked fwd line, poor defence

theyll be up and down like usual until they fix the defence

surprised Bevo got an extension 

I reckon with Jones and Darcy their defence improves, issue for them is they don’t defend well enough in their forward half

A little side one, if Roarke smith isn’t in the ones, he’d make a great lock down back pocket. Not Salem like with his kicking by a long way, but hard at it and very capable of winning his contests and holding structure. Out of contract at end of year. 

10 hours ago, DubDee said:

Great midfield, stacked fwd line, poor defence

theyll be up and down like usual until they fix the defence

surprised Bevo got an extension 

Disagree entirely.

Bevo’s their best coach in the history of their club. Fact. Of course you sign him up. 

Forward line needs some defensive punch. If Hannan isn’t up to it they’ll need Charlie Clarke. And the 3 talls need to prove themselves.

Backline has 3 All Aus quality flankers in Dale, Daniel and Richards. Gardiner is good enough now as a lockdown tall. They need one of Jones or Keath to step up at full back. Keath was great in 2020 but couldn’t move last year and was never meant to be a full back anyway. If Jones can do it then Keath battles Darcy for CHB, ideally the veteran wins out. Relying on veterans and kid talls isn’t ideal but it can work. It’s similar to our hopes with JVR up forward.

Midfield is a bigger issue than the names suggest. The on ballers don’t defend and they’re lacking wing options. They’ll need Toby McLean pushing the star 5 mids for game time and providing a defensive role. And they’ll need to find an attacking wing from Vandermeer, Bedendo, Arthur Jones or even Sauce Baker!

Good side, expect more finals footy. Can Lobb kick them the score they need? Only time will tell. 

My starting line up is pretty much the same as @WERRIDEE though I think they’ll go with Keath ahead of Darcy who may or may not continue in defence.  It would be hard to know with Bevo the King of spinning magnets.

The Draw  The bad news– They play the Cats, Tigers, Freo and Port twice.  The good news is they play GWS and Hawthorn twice.  They also start the season with us at the MCG and then the Saints before playing Brisbane(H), Richmond (A), Port(A), and Freo(A).  They’d want to be on their mettle coming off the preseason or the season could almost be out of reach for them before we get to May.  

1. The Doggies are the most difficult side to make predictions on and have been ever since Bevo took the reins in 2015.  They are an intriguing proposition, having won a premiership and made a GF in his time there, but they have never finished top 4 at the end of the H&A season with him as coach (though came mighty close in 2021).  In fact the last time they made the top 4 was 2010.   So what to make of them going into 2023 because on paper they appear to be strong enough contender for the flag? They’ve picked up what would appear some missing pieces in Liam Jones and Rory Lobb, and while Dunkley might be considered a loss, clearly Lachie Hunter and Josh Schache weren’t required players – nor for that matter was Mitch Wallis who was delisted – but will they be missed?  Only the fullness of time will tell, but I think the ledger is tipped more towards the red than the black which I will discuss below.

2.  If you’ve read the previous three dives I’ve done into Adelaide, Brisbane and Carlton you may have noticed a recurring theme in terms of key factors I value in separating the contenders from the pretenders that is Defence and Contested Possessions.  I’d have to say that this isn’t any original thinking on my behalf, nor did I steal it from David King – these are key stats that many others rely on and have been around for a while and the Dogs over Bevo’s time help illustrate at least the first point.   In recent times the premier has always been one of the best three defensive teams in the competition. Since 2015 the Dogs in defence have ranked 7^th, 3^rd (2016), 8^th, 13^th, 12^th, 10^th, 4^th (2021*) and 11^th.   In 2006 the Eagles finished 4^th defensively and won the premiership – only twice since then in 2013-14 were the Hawks able to do it (5^th) – but they were also a 50 goal better side than the next best team as well.  Contested Possessions isn’t as compelling and sides like Geelong last year and Richmond previously have demonstrated you don’t need to be anything special in this area, providing you can offset it by being efficient with ball in hand or finding other ways to get the ball off the opposition.  The Dogs by the way were second last for intercepts in the competition last year which segues into my next topic. 

3. If the question were ‘Is the Doggies defence capable of being a top 3 side with the addition of Liam Jones this season?’ the simple answer is No.  They have two AA half-back flankers in Dale and Daniel and that’s an excellent start, but then it gets a bit patchy.  Richards and Duryea are more than handy small foils back there, but when you look at the other smalls that have rotated through there in the last few season most seem to have question marks over them and where their best positions are (as we return to Bevo spinning magnets).  Williams now seems to be preferred on the wing after some wobbly moments in defence, Crozier couldn’t cement a spot back there last year after a serviceable start crossing from Freo, Roarke Smith has been in and out as has JJ for injury reasons, but isn’t really a backman anymore.  Then we switch to the talls.  Does Jones help – you’d think so – 2^nd worst intercept side and not a single player in the top 50 in the AFL for Defensive 1v1s (https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html).

The trouble is Jones will be 32 when he shapes up for round 1 and the other talls ‘could’ be OK on their day, but aren’t A grade KPDs.  Ryan Gardner looks like being the safest bet to team with Jones and had a good season last year and while Keath tries hard and was busted by seasons end there are question marks over whether he can return to his 2021 form – he probably can, but if he doesn’t then the cupboard is getting bare, so bare they’ve been experimenting with Josh Bruce back there during the preseason.  O’Brien I’ve never been sold on and his 11 games last year after crossing from the Hawks before playing out the year in the VFL probably indicates that Bevo isn’t sold either.  Khamis and Busslinger are too young and inexperienced to be consistently effective and that leaves Darcy who was trialled back there last year… another nice segue.

4.  Darcy forward or back? To me he looks like the 2^nd Ruck/KPF apprentice which is what he did in U18s, but then Bevo throws him back as an intercepting tall at the back end of 2022.  With Jones back they probably don’t need him to play that role, but they also went and got Lobb the player other supporters love to hate – more on him in a sec.  Naughton is top shelf and JUH is starting to come into his own, but the Dogs rely heavily on goals from their midfield with Cody Weightman being the only consistent small forward for them.  It seems like they’ve got massive hopes for Charlie Clarke to be the second small, but in his rookie season that’s a little too early.  I can’t see a place there for Bruce if Lobb plays – you know the bloke that doesn’t want to ruck, doesn’t want to play at the Giants, doesn’t want to stay at Freo,– the guy that the footy world regards as the failed ‘Great Peroxide White Hope’ because he’s never lived up to the hype…. Can Doggies Fans expect him to revolutionise the way their forward line functions – again the answer is no.  What they can expect is what he has delivered as a tall forward/2^nd Ruck going into his 10^th season averaging 11 disposals, 4 marks, 11 hitouts and 1 goal again – Mehhh not much better than Luke Jackson whose barely played 3 seasons.

5. Does Dunkley and Hunter leaving weaken their midfield? Well- yes and no.  No because Hunter only played the 10 games last year and had fallen out with the coach (he did play all 25 matches in 2021 though), no because they were struggling to fit Dunkley into the packed midfield rotation with the quality of Bont, Macrae, Libba, Treloar. (He found himself on the HFF for longer than he would have liked).  Yes, because both Hunter(2018) and Dunkley (2022) are both  B&F winners – they can seriously play footy and you shouldn’t be making a habit of losing guys like that.  Yes because there’s no natural replacement to play on the wing  for Lachie or another player that immediately steps into the midfield and racks up 260 CP and plays with that defensive mindset that Josh did.  I’m leaning towards their midfield will be weaker, but by how much remains to be seen whether guys like Bailey Smith (the #1 turnover player in the competition) and Riley West step up to fill the void.

The player they can least afford to lose - given the amount of time discussing their defensive woes I was tempted to put down Liam Jones, or perhaps Caleb Daniel the man they rely on to pilot them out of the treacherous waters off half back.  In the end though it has to be Bont, He picks this team up and carries them on his shoulders, but last year those shoulders looked really sore.    He played 22 of 23 games last year with one week off being managed, but he wasn't right all year  and it was the first time since his debut year he's finished lower than 3rd in their B&F.  It's absolutely vital for them he's back playing closer to 90% this season than where he was last year. 

Am I any the wiser on what the Dogs will do this year… not really, but safe to say neither is the market they’re currently middle of the pack (=9^th) with Freo to make the top four and the top eight.  It seems no one is quite sure what they will do.  Can they make the top 4 – yes, Will they make the top 4 – nope.  They’ll be there in the eight, but they need a lot to go right for them to repeat the heroics of 2016 & 2021 and I’m not sure lightning will strike three times.  I’ve got them finishing eighth. 

*They were playing statistically the best defensive side in living memory - we all recall with great delight the floodgates opening with 35 minutes left to go.  I think the Doggies were still searching for answers half way through last season to figure out what went wrong.

Edited February 16, 20232 yr by grazman

I have them a bit like Carlton slipping out of the 8. They have to have everything to go their way to make the 8. Don't understand the recruitment of Lobb? Dunkley and even though they didn't want him Hunter should hurt them.

Thanks @grazman brilliant read, have to agree with all you’ve suggested. They are a very interesting ‘watch’.

On 12/17/2022 at 1:06 AM, WERRIDEE said:

Western

B: Daniel, Keath, Gardiner

HB: Richards, L.Jones, Dale

C: B.Smith, Treloar, Liberatore

HF: Weightman, Naughton, Scott

F: Ugle-Hagan, Lobb, Darcy

FOLL: English, Bontempelli, Macrae

IC: Williams, Duryea, Johannisen, Hannan

Reserves

B: Khamis, Busslinger, Crozier

HB: West, O'Brien, Raak

C: Baker, McLean, Bedendo

HF: Vandermeer, R.Smith, A.Jones

F: Clarke, Bruce, Gallagher

FOLL: Sweet, McComb, McNeil

IC: Garcia, Cleary

 

Revised best 44 for Western