JVM's Match Preview - Melbourne v Geelong

[Demonland 73,495]

SEVEN DAYS by J.V. McKay

I find it hard to believe that it was just seven days ago, on Easter Saturday morning, that I was sipping away at a café latte inside a little curbside café in suburban Melbourne and enjoying small talk with a friend. We were both a bit down in the dumps as both of us support teams that suffered defeat in the first round of the season (he's a fan of Geelong) so the conversation generally veered away from the subject of football until the time came to pick up the tab and move on.

Our parting comment was to the effect that thankfully, our respective football teams were taking on opponents at the weekend who were not to be feared by prospective finals participants in Melbourne and Geelong and that we would meet again in a week's time on the eve of Rivalry Round, with both having tasted the first victory for the year and in readiness to take each other on in an exciting blockbuster on the following day.

The history books have recorded what happened next. Geelong, playing two first gamers, simply whipped Carlton into submission and would have won their match by over 100 points but for the fact that they pulled up in the final ten minutes and allowed the Blues a few cheap goals in junk time.

Melbourne went the other way and lost ingloriously to the Hawks. To make matters worse the Demons are, in addition to suffering a massive form slump, undergoing one of the biggest injury crises in its history losing several key players in quick succession (and that came hot on the heels of the loss of Brock McLean for six weeks with a foot fracture sustained in round 1) - all in the space of seven days.

First cab off the rank was Clint Bartram who injured a knee in Saturday's training session. He's out indefinitely. Ten minutes into Monday's game skipper David Neitz went down with a knee that puts him out for four weeks, then down went Russell Robertson with a knee that could put him out for up to ten weeks. During the week, the team's best defender Jared Rivers was ruled out with a hamstring strain and Colin Sylvia, who starred on comeback with Sandringham and was a certain to be selected for the AFL this week, went down with "soreness". Who knows how long "soreness" can keep you out of the team at Melbourne?

So call me a coward but after the events of last week, I cancelled this morning's coffee meeting and instead of looking forward to tomorrow's game at the G, I was at one stage actually searching through the record books to ascertain what the Cats need to do in order to achieve an all time record breaking win against the Demons (it's a lot!). I even considered going bush for the weekend with a few bottles of expensive red (well, relatively expensive red).

On reflection however, I'm not that pessimistic about the game and I will turn up and face the music. After all, I'm a gambler and I get my inspiration from the bookies!

Don't get me wrong. I'm not about to join the Kiss of Death as the only tipster in the known universe to actually select Melbourne to triumph tomorrow at odds of $3.35 to win but those long odds remind me of a not too distant occasion when Melbourne met Fremantle at the MCG and the Dockers saluted the judges at even longer odds than that. I also go back to a famous game in about 1998 when an injury stricken Melbourne traveled to Subiaco and prevailed against the Eagles also at long odds against.

Then there's the example set by the Bulldogs in 2006. With only 25 players to select a team from in round 20, the Doggies showed enormous character to beat Adelaide who were premiership favourites at the time.

I figure therefore that there should be no reason at all why the collection of out of formers, coodabeens and never wases that is arrayed against Geelong tomorrow can't lift the club off the floor and give its fans something to cheer about in the interim period while many of the team's stars are recovering from their wounds and some promising youngsters are serving their mandatory sentences of a minimum of fifteen games at Sandringham before even being considered for selection and risked in senior AFL company (Malthouse was an absolute goose for picking three first gamers for last night's game v Richmond wasn't he)?

It can be done, can't it?

THE GAME: Melbourne v. Geelong at the MCG - 15 April 2007 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Melbourne 83 wins Geelong 116 wins 2 draws

At the G: Melbourne 51 wins Geelong 48 wins

Since 2000: Melbourne 6 wins Geelong 6 wins 1 draw

The Coaches: Daniher 6 wins 1 draw Thompson 6 wins 1 draw

MEDIA:

TV Channel 7 (delayed telecast commencing at 3.00pm)

RADIO: 3AW, ABC 774, KRock, MMM

THE BETTING: Melbourne to win $3.35 Geelong to win $1.30

LAST TIME THEY MET: Geelong 14.10.94 drew with Melbourne 14.10.94 at Skilled Stadium in Round 21, 2006.

Geelong were in a form slump and on their way to missing the 2006 finals while Melbourne had just demolished the Kangaroos. The Demons needed a victory if they were to have any chance of grabbing back a top four spot with the finals just two weeks away. Melbourne jumped to a 38-point lead well beyond the halfway mark of the second quarter only to be reeled in by a rampaging Geelong that kicked nine of the last eleven goals and received some serious help from the umpires to draw the game. Travis Johnstone was in fine form for the Demons while the best Cat on the day was Steve Johnson who thankfully will miss tomorrow because he's a very naughty boy.

THE TEAMS:

MELBOURNE:

Backs: Ben Holland Nathan Carroll Matthew Whelan

Half backs: Daniel Ward Paul Wheatley Daniel Bell

Centreline: Brent Moloney James McDonald Brad Green

Half forwards: Cameron Bruce Brad Miller Matthew Bate

Forwards: Simon Godfrey Mark Jamar Aaron Davey

Followers: Jeff White Nathan Jones Travis Johnstone

Interchange: Nathan Brown Ryan Ferguson Paul Johnson Adem Yze

Emergencies: Clint Bizzell Chris Johnson Ricky Petterd

In: Ben Holland Ryan Ferguson Paul Johnson Adem Yze

Out: David Neitz (knee) Jared Rivers (hamstring) Russell Robertson (knee) Chris Johnson

GEELONG

Backs: Corey Enright Matthew Scarlett Andrew Mackie

Halfbacks: Josh Hunt Matthew Egan Darren Milburn

Centreline: David Wojcinski Jimmy Bartel Shannon Byrnes

Half forwards: Paul Chapman Cameron Mooney James Kelly

Forwards: Nathan Ablett Brad Ottens Gary Ablett

Followers: Mark Blake Cameron Ling Joel Corey

Interchange: Tom Hawkins David Johnson Brent Prismall Travis Varcoe

Emergencies: Charlie Gardiner Joel Selwood Kane Tenace

In: David Johnson James Kelly

Out: Charlie Gardiner Joel Selwood

Umpires: Ellis Hendrie Avon

THE GAME PLAN:

Next!

WHERE THE GAME WILL BE WON AND LOST:

The Cats are full of confidence after giving Carlton an absolute shellacking last week. Everything went right for the Cats as they swept aside the insipid Blues. This week they come up against a team that's more insipid than the Bluebaggers. The Dees are playing without confidence, form or discipline and the game could be won or lost for this reason alone although we know from history that form can be such a fickle thing. It could come back when least expected!

With Melbourne already battling injuries it's absolutely essential that two big name players in Travis Johnstone and Aaron Davey can come back from the worst form slumps of their careers. If both can return to their normal output or even better, things would definitely be on the improve for the Demons. However, I can't see that happening if Neale Daniher decides to play Davey at full forward as he threatened earlier in the week. He would be of more use if given a free rein in the wide open spaces of the wings where he can use his pace to advantage by running through the lines. Perhaps Trapper could go to the other wing to release Brad Green to the forward line - a part of the ground where he shone in the early parts of his career.

Geelong's midfield is looking awesome with players of the calibre of Ablett, Bartel, Chapman, Corey and Ling able to run through the middle. James McDonald will need to be at his All-Australian best to stop Bartel while Nathan Jones will be put to the test against this calibre of opposition. The onus will definitely be on the Demon midfield to lift and at least they should be aided by Jeff White who also needs to return to form. Fortuitously, Steven King won't be around to give him a kick start (if you get my drift).

White can handle Blake and Ottens and it is to be hoped that he can generate drive and forward movement from the advantage he can gain in the ruck.

The Cats also appear to have the superior edge in their forward line but will depend on some youngsters in Nathan Ablett and Tom Hawkins to come up trumps twice in a row. That's no certainty!

Unfortunately for the Demons, the Geelong defence, even without Tom Harley, is also looking strong and should hold down a dishevelled and disrupted injury affected Demon forward line.

SOME VITAL MATCH UPS:

The game presents some fascinating duels and if Melbourne is to even come close to winning the game it needs to finish in front with all three of the following: -

Brad Miller v Matthew Egan

With two key forwards sitting in the stands, Melbourne needs something special from Brad Miller who was one of its few shining lights last week. If Egan can hold him, the Dees are in trouble.

The two Nathans – Carroll v Ablett

Carroll showed some glimpses of returning to his 2006 form which had some of the pundits touting him for All Australian selection as a full back at one stage. Ablett has been in fine form and he forms part of a tall forward line capable of tearing opposition defences apart. Melbourne’s defence, without Rivers is suspect. Carroll must keep Ablett down.

Ryan Ferguson v Cam Mooney

When these two teams met in a practice match earlier in the season Mooney was kept scoreless in the first half by Jared Rivers. When Rivers succumbed to the hamstring soreness from which he has apparently still not recovered, Mooney booted four goals in a masterful and match winning display at centre half forward. He is named to start against Paul Wheatley but I have a feeling that we'll see Ferguson line up on him at some stage. This is Ferg's chance to atone and, in doing so he might even generate the revival of a career sent off the rails by persistent injury worries.

THE WILDCARDS

Paul Johnson

Like Ferguson, Paul Johnson is a player whose career has stalled through injury. There are many doubters about PJ who say that he can't mark overhead and that he's simply not anywhere near the complete footballer. The former Liston Medallist is however, extremely agile for a tall man and I'm tipping that, given ground time, he could surprise.

Avon calling

I've had a gutful. For two weeks I have sat back and watched the umpires taking part in the carnage. Things are bad enough when your players own players stuff up constantly but it doesn't help when you give away the margin between winner and loser on consecutive weeks in free kicks and when the free kick differential virtually gives your opponent one extra player. What I'd like to see this week is some consistency and fairness and a free kick count of about 25 - 10 in our favour, five or six frees to us directly in front of goal and a couple of dubious 50 metre penalty goal assists to even things up. Now that's not asking too much in the interests of fairness, is it? (by the way I'm not bitter about the maggots at all!)

THE TIP

With so many big guns missing from the Melbourne line up, it's hard to see the Demons turning things around as dramatically over a period of less than seven days as is necessary to win this week.

Funnier things have been known to happen but I'm tipping Geelong to win by 29 points.

[Demon Head 299]

Funnier things have been known to happen but I'm tipping Geelong to win by 29 points.

Thanks for being so generous in your assessment.

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,820]

I particularly liked your "Avon calling"paragraph,JVM.

It's funny that it seems ridiculous to hope for umpiring stats in our favour like the ones we've had against us in the first two rounds.

We've got to stop giving away frees in front of goal! 11 resulting in goals in 2 weeks is far too many! Plus there were about 4 others that SHOULD have been goals, and several others that resulted more indirectly from forward frees.

Let's hope for more experienced and competent umpires this week!

[Apocalypse XXXI 243]

Very entertaining and I back you all the way on the issue of the umpires who have been shocking so far this year.