Jump to content


Recommended Posts

Posted
1 minute ago, Watson11 said:

Except at the end of the year when Frost was getting the best forward (Hawkins, Franklin, Kennedy, Roughead...). 

He got hawkins for a quarter. I don't think he got franklin, bu could be wrong. And pretty sure Omac got Roughead.

And Kennedy toweled him up. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

That is great - how do I see these stats?

http://m.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/

Definitely 

2 minutes ago, binman said:

A good example of the problem of taking stats in isolation.

For example by that logic Frost is a better one on one defender than May. But that's not the case.

One mitigating factor is Omac played in a more losing matches than Frosty, and in those games our pressure dropped off and oppo kicks inside 50 were better. The same issue applies to May obviously.

Another is that as FND points out for most of the season Omac go the oppos best and biggest forward. And performed well in most of those contest, despite giving away age, strength, weight and experience. Next year he will stronger and heavier, in fact he will keep getting bigger for the next two seasons, whereas Frosty is probably as big as he is going to get.

Omac is still in a kid in terms of the role he plays. His peak is 2 to 3 years ago. On that point here is a statistical comparison of may and Omac and the same stage of their career (Omac's last season and May's stats  for his 2014 season):

2018 Stats for Season 2014
25 Games 19
7.6 Kicks Per Game 10.5
4.0 Handballs Per Game 2.8
11.6 Disposals Per Game 13.4
3.8 Marks Per Game 3.8
0 Goals Per Game 0
0 Behinds Per Game 0.1
1.2 Tackles Per Game 2.3
0 Hitouts Per Game 0.2
0.8 Inside 50s Per Game 1.1
0 Goal Assists Per Game 0.2
0.2 Frees For Per Game 0.8
1.0 Frees Against Per Game 1.1
4.3 Contested Possessions Per Game 4.9
7.0 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 7.6
9.2 Effective Disposals Per Game 10.0
79.3% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 74.6%
2.1 Clangers Per Game 2.8
0.7 Contested Marks Per Game 0.5
0 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 0
0.1 Clearances Per Game 0.3
3.1 Rebound 50s Per Game 4.3
6.3 One Percenters Per Game 10.3
0 Bounces Per Game 0.7
96.0 Time On Ground % Per Game 95.5
   

I don't think frost is competing with OMac for a spot and if he is he in a spot of bother because Omac is ahead. I like frosty but his disposal is too unreliable and as result his risk reward ratio is too slanted towards risk. Which is an issue for him given the way he plays.

 

 Omac was getting the key defender until after our Geelong game when Frost went in front of him and got Buddy, Hawkins, Kennedy, Walker etc and yes a large part of it is our forward and mid pressure improved which IMO is the key to us being genuine flag contenders. But in that period Omac was getting the second forward so would have also had improved stats.  Omac and Frost will both be in the 22 next year until Lever comes back in and it probably comes down to who is in better form at the time.  Good position to be in compared to the issues we had when Lever went down this year.

  • Like 6

Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, binman said:

He got hawkins for a quarter. I don't think he got franklin, bu could be wrong. And pretty sure Omac got Roughead.

And Kennedy toweled him up. 

Frost got Hawkins for a quarter at Geelong and 4 quarters in elimination.  Absolutely got Buddy and held him goalless.  Could be right about Hawthorn although I thought Omac picked up Schoemaker but can’t really remember.

Edited by Watson11
Posted
22 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

Frost got Hawkins for a quarter at Geelong and 4 quarters in elimination.  Absolutely got Buddy and held him goalless.  Could be right about Hawthorn although I thought Omac picked up Schoemaker but can’t really remember.

Yes, you're right about the elimination final - i had somehow (perhaps conveniently) forgotten that. 

Pretty sure Omac got Roughehaed, but he is certainly not the power he was was and is pretty slow thses days which suits Omac. 

You are spot on though as we now have a big group of defenders, across multiple roles, to choose from. it was great to hear may talk about being keen to be part of an elite back line.

  • Like 1
Posted

Frost was good on Hawkins in the Elimination final, the times that Hawkins marked it were classic lapses by other players failing to fill the hole directly between Hawkins and the kicker.  No KPD could've stopped that - it's another illustration of how up field pressure and positioning is key to defensive success.

  • Like 8

Posted
6 hours ago, binman said:

A good example of the problem of taking stats in isolation.

For example by that logic Frost is a better one on one defender than May. But that's not the case.

One mitigating factor is Omac played in  more losing matches than Frosty, and in those games our pressure dropped off and oppo kicks inside 50 were better. The same issue applies to May obviously.

Another is that as FND points out for most of the season Omac got the oppos best and biggest forward. And performed well in most of those contests, despite giving away age, strength, weight and experience. Next year he will stronger and heavier, in fact he will keep getting bigger for the next two seasons, whereas Frosty is probably as big as he is going to get.

Omac is still in a kid in terms of the role he plays. His peak is 2 to 3 years away. On that point here is a statistical comparison of May and Omac and the same stage of their career (Omac's last season and May's stats  for his 2014 season):

2018 Stats for Season 2014
25 Games 19
7.6 Kicks Per Game 10.5
4.0 Handballs Per Game 2.8
11.6 Disposals Per Game 13.4
3.8 Marks Per Game 3.8
0 Goals Per Game 0
0 Behinds Per Game 0.1
1.2 Tackles Per Game 2.3
0 Hitouts Per Game 0.2
0.8 Inside 50s Per Game 1.1
0 Goal Assists Per Game 0.2
0.2 Frees For Per Game 0.8
1.0 Frees Against Per Game 1.1
4.3 Contested Possessions Per Game 4.9
7.0 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 7.6
9.2 Effective Disposals Per Game 10.0
79.3% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 74.6%
2.1 Clangers Per Game 2.8
0.7 Contested Marks Per Game 0.5
0 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 0
0.1 Clearances Per Game 0.3
3.1 Rebound 50s Per Game 4.3
6.3 One Percenters Per Game 10.3
0 Bounces Per Game 0.7
96.0 Time On Ground % Per Game 95.5
   

I don't think Frost is competing with OMac for a spot and if he is he in a spot of bother because Omac is ahead.

I like Frosty but his disposal is too unreliable and as result his risk reward ratio is too weighted towards risk. Which is an issue for him given the way he plays.

 

I don't understand where you get the idea that Frost is too unreliable for diposal from the stats presented.  Disposal efficiency is only 5% different between them and 0.6 clangers per game.  I'd also like to see how that comparison would stack up for the second half of the year, when the stats might be reversed as I recall Frosty tidying up his disposal and decision making considerably.

The other minor thing of note is that Frost actually registered in the stats for score involvement, where as O Mac didn't.  Stacks up perfectly to me as I distinctly remember several great passages of play that were started by Frost deep in defense that went pretty much coast to coast and through the big ones.  The most memorable were against GWS and that awsome torpe from full back against the Hawks.  The stat comparison I'd like to see is meters gained @Watson11 - any chance you could pull out that stat.

Anyway Binman, I agree with you regards Oscar still being the junior player and potentially still with further physical and game development in him, which I'm really hoping for.  I quite like O Mac as well and I'm hoping that he matures into a player of similar quality and physical strength as big brother Tommy and it's a good position to be in for the MFC to have some decient backline depth.  Main point for me is that I'm a little suprised how almost all the media seem to have O Mac ahead of Frost, when both it's such a close run thing and everyone seemed to acknowledge at the time how good Frosty was at the end of the year.

 I'm not reading too much into anything for any of our players that game against Westcoast and probably particularly not the backline ones, it's hard to single any one player out when so many made such poor mistakes - you could say Brayshaw is a dud based on that one performance, but you'd be wrong.

  • Like 3
Posted
1 hour ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I don't understand where you get the idea that Frost is too unreliable for diposal from the stats presented.  Disposal efficiency is only 5% different between them and 0.6 clangers per game.  I'd also like to see how that comparison would stack up for the second half of the year, when the stats might be reversed as I recall Frosty tidying up his disposal and decision making considerably.

The other minor thing of note is that Frost actually registered in the stats for score involvement, where as O Mac didn't.  Stacks up perfectly to me as I distinctly remember several great passages of play that were started by Frost deep in defense that went pretty much coast to coast and through the big ones.  The most memorable were against GWS and that awsome torpe from full back against the Hawks.  The stat comparison I'd like to see is meters gained @Watson11 - any chance you could pull out that stat.

Anyway Binman, I agree with you regards Oscar still being the junior player and potentially still with further physical and game development in him, which I'm really hoping for.  I quite like O Mac as well and I'm hoping that he matures into a player of similar quality and physical strength as big brother Tommy and it's a good position to be in for the MFC to have some decient backline depth.  Main point for me is that I'm a little suprised how almost all the media seem to have O Mac ahead of Frost, when both it's such a close run thing and everyone seemed to acknowledge at the time how good Frosty was at the end of the year.

 I'm not reading too much into anything for any of our players that game against Westcoast and probably particularly not the backline ones, it's hard to single any one player out when so many made such poor mistakes - you could say Brayshaw is a dud based on that one performance, but you'd be wrong.

I think binman was comparing Omac and May at the same age.  

Frost had 222.85m gained per game versus Omacs 200m so not too different. Omac had 2.08 turnovers per game versus Frost 3.08.  Frost 2.77 score involvements versus Omac at 1.84.

They are close.  Different strengths and weaknesses.

  • Like 2
Posted (edited)

Oscar is a little bit taller and surer than Frost.  He's less prone to a brain fade.  He plays more to his limitations. 

Steven May has many of the attacking attributes of Frost.  Frost stood up at the end of the year, but in choosing a collective six for 2019 I see Oscar's skillset as more complementary. 

Edited by ProDee
  • Like 5

Posted

Oscar needs to develop some mongrel. Forwards need to earn their kicks. Brown, Kennedy, Cox, Hawkins etc. were far too physical for him.

Frost has Xfactor with dashing runs and torps. Did a good job when he came in. Should have been in much, much earlier.

Fritta definitely plays round one!

  • Like 4
  • Love 1
Posted
9 hours ago, Watson11 said:

I think binman was comparing Omac and May at the same age.  

Frost had 222.85m gained per game versus Omacs 200m so not too different. Omac had 2.08 turnovers per game versus Frost 3.08.  Frost 2.77 score involvements versus Omac at 1.84.

They are close.  Different strengths and weaknesses.

Good points, but we are not talking age for age realitive development and ultimate potential, we are talking how gets picked in season 2019.  Are the meters gained and turnovers you quoted age for age or season 2018?  Certainly the turn overs are a little different to the clangers reported on the AFL site, but I guess that's not exactly apples for apples.

On the subject of stats, it's interesting to note that Oscar actually has one of the highest disposal efficiencies in the side, with all defenders (including Frost) performing significantly better for this stat than mids and forwards.  Still Oscar and Frost play a similar position  (though perhaps slightly different roles), so it's very close to an apples for apples comparison.  Interestingly Hibbard who most rate as an awsome kick doesn't have a very good disposal efficiency, all of which suggests that the more attacking the player, efficiency suffers.  All about making the right decisions at the right time on when to be more attacking or conservative and maintain possession I guess and is something that the team as a whole has got much better as.

Getting back more specifically to Oscar, some have certainly asserted that he has had a pretty charmed ride in a sense in terms of his development and being selected on the basis of future development ahead of his week on week actual performance, though that does present challenges in it's self (i.e. fronting up the next game with shattered confidence after getting smashed the week before).  If the circumstances are right, it might actually be good for him to go back to Casey to work on some of his weaknesses at some stage like everyone else has.

How times change though with people actually proposing and defending Oscar as being best 22 material.  Go back a couple of years and every second poster on Demonland was demanding that he be dropped and never played again, because he wasn't and would never make an AFL standard player.

Posted
54 minutes ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Good points, but we are not talking age for age realitive development and ultimate potential, we are talking how gets picked in season 2019.  Are the meters gained and turnovers you quoted age for age or season 2018?  Certainly the turn overs are a little different to the clangers reported on the AFL site, but I guess that's not exactly apples for apples.

On the subject of stats, it's interesting to note that Oscar actually has one of the highest disposal efficiencies in the side, with all defenders (including Frost) performing significantly better for this stat than mids and forwards.  Still Oscar and Frost play a similar position  (though perhaps slightly different roles), so it's very close to an apples for apples comparison.  Interestingly Hibbard who most rate as an awsome kick doesn't have a very good disposal efficiency, all of which suggests that the more attacking the player, efficiency suffers.  All about making the right decisions at the right time on when to be more attacking or conservative and maintain possession I guess and is something that the team as a whole has got much better as.

Getting back more specifically to Oscar, some have certainly asserted that he has had a pretty charmed ride in a sense in terms of his development and being selected on the basis of future development ahead of his week on week actual performance, though that does present challenges in it's self (i.e. fronting up the next game with shattered confidence after getting smashed the week before).  If the circumstances are right, it might actually be good for him to go back to Casey to work on some of his weaknesses at some stage like everyone else has.

How times change though with people actually proposing and defending Oscar as being best 22 material.  Go back a couple of years and every second poster on Demonland was demanding that he be dropped and never played again, because he wasn't and would never make an AFL standard player.

They are 2018 figures. I agree with you re Omac.   If you look at career stats Omac is slightly ahead at 25.1% versus 26.7% for Frosty.  Frosts 2018 one on one stats support your prior views (and Goody's) that the forward/midfield pressure was the big issue with our leaking goals at times.  Frost didn't suddenly go from an average to great one on one player.  He was able to improve so much because our forwards and mids lifted the pressure out of sight.  If we maintain that in 2019 it really won't matter who is in between Omac and Frost, we'll be hard to score against and bolstering our defense is really icing on the cake.  May and Lever are also great leaders, so will help the mids remain accountable. 

  • Like 1
Posted

Jordan Lewis?

Don't think so.

  • Like 1
Posted

Given the improvement Frost showed last year, and he ended up best 18 let alone best 22, it would be a harsh call to drop him based on this body of work. As such, I’d like to see Goody give Frost a try on the wing. I think it could be an interesting experiment.

  • Like 1

Posted
On 10/22/2018 at 2:35 PM, Demonland said:

Screenshot_2018-10-22 Melbourne's best 22 for 2019 - melbournefc com au.png

 

On 10/22/2018 at 4:45 PM, deanox said:

Missing:

Fritsch, Frost, Preuss, Stretch, Hunt, Joel Smith, Garlett, JKH, Wagner, Baker, Petty.

Rookies:

Tim Smith, Maynard, Keilty

 

Probably the best 22 named, with the jury out on KK.

Looking at these two posts it shows how little depth we actually have. An 18 team competition stretches the talent so we are not alone. Would love Hunt to get his game together and be a regular starter. 

  • Like 1
Posted
On 10/26/2018 at 9:53 AM, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Good points, but we are not talking age for age realitive development and ultimate potential, we are talking how gets picked in season 2019.

The reason i put up the stats for May and Omac at comparative stages was to highlight that like May did  Omac is likely to improve significantly over the next say 2-3 seasons ad n is well on track to becoming one of the better big defenders.

Frosty has some upside perhaps but not as much and he is certainly unlikely to get too much stronger. 

on disposal the DE rating is always going to be higher for players playing deep back as they do a lot of short crosses and kicks to unmanned players. Mids are more likely to have take riskier  kicks, as is Hiiberd who often goes long to contest. I guess you argue Frosty plays a similar role to Hibberd so maybe his DE is ok.

But turnovers are the real issue. One more per game than OMac is a lot given turnovers from defenders often result in scoring chances for the oppo.

But as i have said i don't think Frosty is competing with omac for a spot. His competition is Lever, May and Hibberd (and possibly Hunt).

Frost's advantage over OMas is he is stronger (though that will change) giving him first crack at the biggest opposition forwards, like Hawkins. But in future May will almost certainly get those players leaving OMac on the second forward.

  • Like 1
Posted

Frost deserves more credit for tidying up his disposal by foot this season. How temporary it will be remains to be seen but there was a marked improvement.

Assuming we have a few games to wait before Lever returns then hopefully we get an early indication as to who is more deserving to keep their spot out of Frosty and Oscar. I’d wager the coaches will favour Oscar.


Posted
1 hour ago, P-man said:

Frost deserves more credit for tidying up his disposal by foot this season. How temporary it will be remains to be seen but there was a marked improvement.

 

Agree, his kicking was much improved. took less risky options, but didn't eliminate the risky kick all together. Which speaks to better decision making, which i suspect is what the club told him to work on at Casey. 

  • Like 1
Posted
On 10/26/2018 at 7:10 AM, ProDee said:

Oscar is a little bit taller and surer than Frost.  He's less prone to a brain fade.  He plays more to his limitations. 

Steven May has many of the attacking attributes of Frost.  Frost stood up at the end of the year, but in choosing a collective six for 2019 I see Oscar's skillset as more complementary. 

OMac will also be more inclined to stick to his task and stay last line of defence than Frost, May has mentioned that he played best when Rory Thompson played at the same time because he did this. Frost is getting a lot smarter but I still wouldn't trust him to stick to this all game. So I agree that OMac is more complementary of May and lever than Frost, but both could play if either of those were missing

  • Like 2

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Demonland Forums  

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles  

    TRAINING: Friday 22nd November 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers were out in force on a scorching morning out at Gosch's Paddock for the final session before the whole squad reunites for the Preseason Training Camp. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS It’s going to be a scorcher today but I’m in the shade at Gosch’s Paddock ready to bring you some observations from the final session before the Preseason Training Camp next week.  Salem, Fritsch & Campbell are already on the track. Still no number on Campbell’s

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports 3

    UP IN LIGHTS by Whispering Jack

    Those who watched the 2024 Marsh AFL National Championships closely this year would not be particularly surprised that Melbourne selected Victoria Country pair Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay on the first night of the AFL National Draft. The two left-footed midfielders are as different as chalk and cheese but they had similar impacts in their Coates Talent League teams and in the National Championships in 2024. Their interstate side was edged out at the very end of the tournament for tea

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features

    TRAINING: Wednesday 20th November 2024

    It’s a beautiful cool morning down at Gosch’s Paddock and I’ve arrived early to bring you my observations from today’s session. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS Reigning Keith Bluey Truscott champion Jack Viney is the first one out on the track.  Jack’s wearing the red version of the new training guernsey which is the only version available for sale at the Demon Shop. TRAINING: Viney, Clarry, Lever, TMac, Rivers, Petty, McVee, Bowey, JVR, Hore, Tom Campbell (in tr

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    TRAINING: Monday 18th November 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers ventured down to Gosch's Paddock for the final week of training for the 1st to 4th Years until they are joined by the rest of the senior squad for Preseason Training Camp in Mansfield next week. WAYNE RUSSELL'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS No Ollie, Chin, Riv today, but Rick & Spargs turned up and McDonald was there in casual attire. Seston, and Howes did a lot of boundary running, and Tom Campbell continued his work with individual trainer in non-MFC

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    2024 Player Reviews: #11 Max Gawn

    Champion ruckman and brilliant leader, Max Gawn earned his seventh All-Australian team blazer and constantly held the team up on his shoulders in what was truly a difficult season for the Demons. Date of Birth: 30 December 1991 Height: 209cm Games MFC 2024: 21 Career Total: 224 Goals MFC 2024: 11 Career Total: 109 Brownlow Medal Votes: 13 Melbourne Football Club: 2nd Best & Fairest: 405 votes

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 12

    2024 Player Reviews: #36 Kysaiah Pickett

    The Demons’ aggressive small forward who kicks goals and defends the Demons’ ball in the forward arc. When he’s on song, he’s unstoppable but he did blot his copybook with a three week suspension in the final round. Date of Birth: 2 June 2001 Height: 171cm Games MFC 2024: 21 Career Total: 106 Goals MFC 2024: 36 Career Total: 161 Brownlow Medal Votes: 3 Melbourne Football Club: 4th Best & Fairest: 369 votes

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 5

    TRAINING: Friday 15th November 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers took advantage of the beautiful sunshine to head down to Gosch's Paddock and witness the return of Clayton Oliver to club for his first session in the lead up to the 2025 season. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS Clarry in the house!! Training: JVR, McVee, Windsor, Tholstrup, Woey, Brown, Petty, Adams, Chandler, Turner, Bowey, Seston, Kentfield, Laurie, Sparrow, Viney, Rivers, Jefferson, Hore, Howes, Verrall, AMW, Clarry Tom Campbell is here

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    2024 Player Reviews: #7 Jack Viney

    The tough on baller won his second Keith 'Bluey' Truscott Trophy in a narrow battle with skipper Max Gawn and Alex Neal-Bullen and battled on manfully in the face of a number of injury niggles. Date of Birth: 13 April 1994 Height: 178cm Games MFC 2024: 23 Career Total: 219 Goals MFC 2024: 10 Career Total: 66 Brownlow Medal Votes: 8

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 3

    TRAINING: Wednesday 13th November 2024

    A couple of Demonland Trackwatchers braved the rain and headed down to Gosch's paddock to bring you their observations from the second day of Preseason training for the 1st to 4th Year players. DITCHA'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS I attended some of the training today. Richo spoke to me and said not to believe what is in the media, as we will good this year. Jefferson and Kentfield looked big and strong.  Petty was doing all the training. Adams looked like he was in rehab.  KE

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports
  • Tell a friend

    Love Demonland? Tell a friend!
×
×
  • Create New...