AFL.com.au Dees Best 22

[binman 44,530]

1 minute ago, Watson11 said:

Except at the end of the year when Frost was getting the best forward (Hawkins, Franklin, Kennedy, Roughead...). 

He got hawkins for a quarter. I don't think he got franklin, bu could be wrong. And pretty sure Omac got Roughead.

And Kennedy toweled him up. 

[Watson11 2,246]

5 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

That is great - how do I see these stats?

http://m.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/

Definitely 

2 minutes ago, binman said:

A good example of the problem of taking stats in isolation.

For example by that logic Frost is a better one on one defender than May. But that's not the case.

One mitigating factor is Omac played in a more losing matches than Frosty, and in those games our pressure dropped off and oppo kicks inside 50 were better. The same issue applies to May obviously.

Another is that as FND points out for most of the season Omac go the oppos best and biggest forward. And performed well in most of those contest, despite giving away age, strength, weight and experience. Next year he will stronger and heavier, in fact he will keep getting bigger for the next two seasons, whereas Frosty is probably as big as he is going to get.

Omac is still in a kid in terms of the role he plays. His peak is 2 to 3 years ago. On that point here is a statistical comparison of may and Omac and the same stage of their career (Omac's last season and May's stats  for his 2014 season):

2018	Stats for Season	2014
25	Games	19
7.6	Kicks Per Game	10.5
4.0	Handballs Per Game	2.8
11.6	Disposals Per Game	13.4
3.8	Marks Per Game	3.8
0	Goals Per Game	0
0	Behinds Per Game	0.1
1.2	Tackles Per Game	2.3
0	Hitouts Per Game	0.2
0.8	Inside 50s Per Game	1.1
0	Goal Assists Per Game	0.2
0.2	Frees For Per Game	0.8
1.0	Frees Against Per Game	1.1
4.3	Contested Possessions Per Game	4.9
7.0	Uncontested Possessions Per Game	7.6
9.2	Effective Disposals Per Game	10.0
79.3%	Disposal Efficiency % Per Game	74.6%
2.1	Clangers Per Game	2.8
0.7	Contested Marks Per Game	0.5
0	Marks Inside 50 Per Game	0
0.1	Clearances Per Game	0.3
3.1	Rebound 50s Per Game	4.3
6.3	One Percenters Per Game	10.3
0	Bounces Per Game	0.7
96.0	Time On Ground % Per Game	95.5

I don't think frost is competing with OMac for a spot and if he is he in a spot of bother because Omac is ahead. I like frosty but his disposal is too unreliable and as result his risk reward ratio is too slanted towards risk. Which is an issue for him given the way he plays.

 

 Omac was getting the key defender until after our Geelong game when Frost went in front of him and got Buddy, Hawkins, Kennedy, Walker etc and yes a large part of it is our forward and mid pressure improved which IMO is the key to us being genuine flag contenders. But in that period Omac was getting the second forward so would have also had improved stats.  Omac and Frost will both be in the 22 next year until Lever comes back in and it probably comes down to who is in better form at the time.  Good position to be in compared to the issues we had when Lever went down this year.

[Watson11 2,246]

17 minutes ago, binman said:

He got hawkins for a quarter. I don't think he got franklin, bu could be wrong. And pretty sure Omac got Roughead.

And Kennedy toweled him up. 

Frost got Hawkins for a quarter at Geelong and 4 quarters in elimination.  Absolutely got Buddy and held him goalless.  Could be right about Hawthorn although I thought Omac picked up Schoemaker but can’t really remember.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Watson11

[binman 44,530]

22 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

Frost got Hawkins for a quarter at Geelong and 4 quarters in elimination.  Absolutely got Buddy and held him goalless.  Could be right about Hawthorn although I thought Omac picked up Schoemaker but can’t really remember.

Yes, you're right about the elimination final - i had somehow (perhaps conveniently) forgotten that. 

Pretty sure Omac got Roughehaed, but he is certainly not the power he was was and is pretty slow thses days which suits Omac. 

You are spot on though as we now have a big group of defenders, across multiple roles, to choose from. it was great to hear may talk about being keen to be part of an elite back line.

[old55 23,833]

Frost was good on Hawkins in the Elimination final, the times that Hawkins marked it were classic lapses by other players failing to fill the hole directly between Hawkins and the kicker.  No KPD could've stopped that - it's another illustration of how up field pressure and positioning is key to defensive success.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,962]

6 hours ago, binman said:

A good example of the problem of taking stats in isolation.

For example by that logic Frost is a better one on one defender than May. But that's not the case.

One mitigating factor is Omac played in  more losing matches than Frosty, and in those games our pressure dropped off and oppo kicks inside 50 were better. The same issue applies to May obviously.

Another is that as FND points out for most of the season Omac got the oppos best and biggest forward. And performed well in most of those contests, despite giving away age, strength, weight and experience. Next year he will stronger and heavier, in fact he will keep getting bigger for the next two seasons, whereas Frosty is probably as big as he is going to get.

Omac is still in a kid in terms of the role he plays. His peak is 2 to 3 years away. On that point here is a statistical comparison of May and Omac and the same stage of their career (Omac's last season and May's stats  for his 2014 season):

2018	Stats for Season	2014
25	Games	19
7.6	Kicks Per Game	10.5
4.0	Handballs Per Game	2.8
11.6	Disposals Per Game	13.4
3.8	Marks Per Game	3.8
0	Goals Per Game	0
0	Behinds Per Game	0.1
1.2	Tackles Per Game	2.3
0	Hitouts Per Game	0.2
0.8	Inside 50s Per Game	1.1
0	Goal Assists Per Game	0.2
0.2	Frees For Per Game	0.8
1.0	Frees Against Per Game	1.1
4.3	Contested Possessions Per Game	4.9
7.0	Uncontested Possessions Per Game	7.6
9.2	Effective Disposals Per Game	10.0
79.3%	Disposal Efficiency % Per Game	74.6%
2.1	Clangers Per Game	2.8
0.7	Contested Marks Per Game	0.5
0	Marks Inside 50 Per Game	0
0.1	Clearances Per Game	0.3
3.1	Rebound 50s Per Game	4.3
6.3	One Percenters Per Game	10.3
0	Bounces Per Game	0.7
96.0	Time On Ground % Per Game	95.5

I don't think Frost is competing with OMac for a spot and if he is he in a spot of bother because Omac is ahead.

I like Frosty but his disposal is too unreliable and as result his risk reward ratio is too weighted towards risk. Which is an issue for him given the way he plays.

 

I don't understand where you get the idea that Frost is too unreliable for diposal from the stats presented.  Disposal efficiency is only 5% different between them and 0.6 clangers per game.  I'd also like to see how that comparison would stack up for the second half of the year, when the stats might be reversed as I recall Frosty tidying up his disposal and decision making considerably.

The other minor thing of note is that Frost actually registered in the stats for score involvement, where as O Mac didn't.  Stacks up perfectly to me as I distinctly remember several great passages of play that were started by Frost deep in defense that went pretty much coast to coast and through the big ones.  The most memorable were against GWS and that awsome torpe from full back against the Hawks.  The stat comparison I'd like to see is meters gained @Watson11 - any chance you could pull out that stat.

Anyway Binman, I agree with you regards Oscar still being the junior player and potentially still with further physical and game development in him, which I'm really hoping for.  I quite like O Mac as well and I'm hoping that he matures into a player of similar quality and physical strength as big brother Tommy and it's a good position to be in for the MFC to have some decient backline depth.  Main point for me is that I'm a little suprised how almost all the media seem to have O Mac ahead of Frost, when both it's such a close run thing and everyone seemed to acknowledge at the time how good Frosty was at the end of the year.

 I'm not reading too much into anything for any of our players that game against Westcoast and probably particularly not the backline ones, it's hard to single any one player out when so many made such poor mistakes - you could say Brayshaw is a dud based on that one performance, but you'd be wrong.

[Watson11 2,246]

1 hour ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I don't understand where you get the idea that Frost is too unreliable for diposal from the stats presented.  Disposal efficiency is only 5% different between them and 0.6 clangers per game.  I'd also like to see how that comparison would stack up for the second half of the year, when the stats might be reversed as I recall Frosty tidying up his disposal and decision making considerably.

The other minor thing of note is that Frost actually registered in the stats for score involvement, where as O Mac didn't.  Stacks up perfectly to me as I distinctly remember several great passages of play that were started by Frost deep in defense that went pretty much coast to coast and through the big ones.  The most memorable were against GWS and that awsome torpe from full back against the Hawks.  The stat comparison I'd like to see is meters gained @Watson11 - any chance you could pull out that stat.

Anyway Binman, I agree with you regards Oscar still being the junior player and potentially still with further physical and game development in him, which I'm really hoping for.  I quite like O Mac as well and I'm hoping that he matures into a player of similar quality and physical strength as big brother Tommy and it's a good position to be in for the MFC to have some decient backline depth.  Main point for me is that I'm a little suprised how almost all the media seem to have O Mac ahead of Frost, when both it's such a close run thing and everyone seemed to acknowledge at the time how good Frosty was at the end of the year.

 I'm not reading too much into anything for any of our players that game against Westcoast and probably particularly not the backline ones, it's hard to single any one player out when so many made such poor mistakes - you could say Brayshaw is a dud based on that one performance, but you'd be wrong.

I think binman was comparing Omac and May at the same age.  

Frost had 222.85m gained per game versus Omacs 200m so not too different. Omac had 2.08 turnovers per game versus Frost 3.08.  Frost 2.77 score involvements versus Omac at 1.84.

They are close.  Different strengths and weaknesses.

[Gator 17,972]

Oscar is a little bit taller and surer than Frost.  He's less prone to a brain fade.  He plays more to his limitations. 

Steven May has many of the attacking attributes of Frost.  Frost stood up at the end of the year, but in choosing a collective six for 2019 I see Oscar's skillset as more complementary. 

Edited October 25, 2018 by ProDee

[dee-tox 4,835]

Oscar needs to develop some mongrel. Forwards need to earn their kicks. Brown, Kennedy, Cox, Hawkins etc. were far too physical for him.

Frost has Xfactor with dashing runs and torps. Did a good job when he came in. Should have been in much, much earlier.

Fritta definitely plays round one!

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,962]

9 hours ago, Watson11 said:

I think binman was comparing Omac and May at the same age.  

Frost had 222.85m gained per game versus Omacs 200m so not too different. Omac had 2.08 turnovers per game versus Frost 3.08.  Frost 2.77 score involvements versus Omac at 1.84.

They are close.  Different strengths and weaknesses.

Good points, but we are not talking age for age realitive development and ultimate potential, we are talking how gets picked in season 2019.  Are the meters gained and turnovers you quoted age for age or season 2018?  Certainly the turn overs are a little different to the clangers reported on the AFL site, but I guess that's not exactly apples for apples.

On the subject of stats, it's interesting to note that Oscar actually has one of the highest disposal efficiencies in the side, with all defenders (including Frost) performing significantly better for this stat than mids and forwards.  Still Oscar and Frost play a similar position  (though perhaps slightly different roles), so it's very close to an apples for apples comparison.  Interestingly Hibbard who most rate as an awsome kick doesn't have a very good disposal efficiency, all of which suggests that the more attacking the player, efficiency suffers.  All about making the right decisions at the right time on when to be more attacking or conservative and maintain possession I guess and is something that the team as a whole has got much better as.

Getting back more specifically to Oscar, some have certainly asserted that he has had a pretty charmed ride in a sense in terms of his development and being selected on the basis of future development ahead of his week on week actual performance, though that does present challenges in it's self (i.e. fronting up the next game with shattered confidence after getting smashed the week before).  If the circumstances are right, it might actually be good for him to go back to Casey to work on some of his weaknesses at some stage like everyone else has.

How times change though with people actually proposing and defending Oscar as being best 22 material.  Go back a couple of years and every second poster on Demonland was demanding that he be dropped and never played again, because he wasn't and would never make an AFL standard player.

[Watson11 2,246]

54 minutes ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Good points, but we are not talking age for age realitive development and ultimate potential, we are talking how gets picked in season 2019.  Are the meters gained and turnovers you quoted age for age or season 2018?  Certainly the turn overs are a little different to the clangers reported on the AFL site, but I guess that's not exactly apples for apples.

On the subject of stats, it's interesting to note that Oscar actually has one of the highest disposal efficiencies in the side, with all defenders (including Frost) performing significantly better for this stat than mids and forwards.  Still Oscar and Frost play a similar position  (though perhaps slightly different roles), so it's very close to an apples for apples comparison.  Interestingly Hibbard who most rate as an awsome kick doesn't have a very good disposal efficiency, all of which suggests that the more attacking the player, efficiency suffers.  All about making the right decisions at the right time on when to be more attacking or conservative and maintain possession I guess and is something that the team as a whole has got much better as.

Getting back more specifically to Oscar, some have certainly asserted that he has had a pretty charmed ride in a sense in terms of his development and being selected on the basis of future development ahead of his week on week actual performance, though that does present challenges in it's self (i.e. fronting up the next game with shattered confidence after getting smashed the week before).  If the circumstances are right, it might actually be good for him to go back to Casey to work on some of his weaknesses at some stage like everyone else has.

How times change though with people actually proposing and defending Oscar as being best 22 material.  Go back a couple of years and every second poster on Demonland was demanding that he be dropped and never played again, because he wasn't and would never make an AFL standard player.

They are 2018 figures. I agree with you re Omac.   If you look at career stats Omac is slightly ahead at 25.1% versus 26.7% for Frosty.  Frosts 2018 one on one stats support your prior views (and Goody's) that the forward/midfield pressure was the big issue with our leaking goals at times.  Frost didn't suddenly go from an average to great one on one player.  He was able to improve so much because our forwards and mids lifted the pressure out of sight.  If we maintain that in 2019 it really won't matter who is in between Omac and Frost, we'll be hard to score against and bolstering our defense is really icing on the cake.  May and Lever are also great leaders, so will help the mids remain accountable. 

[Blinkybill 276]

Frost and Oscar would both be in my best 22.

[Biffen 12,949]

Jordan Lewis?

Don't think so.

[Neil Crompton 5,747]

Given the improvement Frost showed last year, and he ended up best 18 let alone best 22, it would be a harsh call to drop him based on this body of work. As such, I’d like to see Goody give Frost a try on the wing. I think it could be an interesting experiment.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

13 hours ago, Blinkybill said:

Frost and Oscar would both be in my best 22.

How do they all fit in?

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

On 10/22/2018 at 2:35 PM, Demonland said:

 

On 10/22/2018 at 4:45 PM, deanox said:

Missing:

Fritsch, Frost, Preuss, Stretch, Hunt, Joel Smith, Garlett, JKH, Wagner, Baker, Petty.

Rookies:

Tim Smith, Maynard, Keilty

 

Probably the best 22 named, with the jury out on KK.

Looking at these two posts it shows how little depth we actually have. An 18 team competition stretches the talent so we are not alone. Would love Hunt to get his game together and be a regular starter. 

[binman 44,530]

On 10/26/2018 at 9:53 AM, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Good points, but we are not talking age for age realitive development and ultimate potential, we are talking how gets picked in season 2019.

The reason i put up the stats for May and Omac at comparative stages was to highlight that like May did  Omac is likely to improve significantly over the next say 2-3 seasons ad n is well on track to becoming one of the better big defenders.

Frosty has some upside perhaps but not as much and he is certainly unlikely to get too much stronger. 

on disposal the DE rating is always going to be higher for players playing deep back as they do a lot of short crosses and kicks to unmanned players. Mids are more likely to have take riskier  kicks, as is Hiiberd who often goes long to contest. I guess you argue Frosty plays a similar role to Hibberd so maybe his DE is ok.

But turnovers are the real issue. One more per game than OMac is a lot given turnovers from defenders often result in scoring chances for the oppo.

But as i have said i don't think Frosty is competing with omac for a spot. His competition is Lever, May and Hibberd (and possibly Hunt).

Frost's advantage over OMas is he is stronger (though that will change) giving him first crack at the biggest opposition forwards, like Hawkins. But in future May will almost certainly get those players leaving OMac on the second forward.

[P-man 13,366]

Frost deserves more credit for tidying up his disposal by foot this season. How temporary it will be remains to be seen but there was a marked improvement.

Assuming we have a few games to wait before Lever returns then hopefully we get an early indication as to who is more deserving to keep their spot out of Frosty and Oscar. I’d wager the coaches will favour Oscar.

[binman 44,530]

1 hour ago, P-man said:

Frost deserves more credit for tidying up his disposal by foot this season. How temporary it will be remains to be seen but there was a marked improvement.

 

Agree, his kicking was much improved. took less risky options, but didn't eliminate the risky kick all together. Which speaks to better decision making, which i suspect is what the club told him to work on at Casey. 

[Red and Blue realist 2,058]

On 10/26/2018 at 7:10 AM, ProDee said:

Oscar is a little bit taller and surer than Frost.  He's less prone to a brain fade.  He plays more to his limitations. 

Steven May has many of the attacking attributes of Frost.  Frost stood up at the end of the year, but in choosing a collective six for 2019 I see Oscar's skillset as more complementary. 

OMac will also be more inclined to stick to his task and stay last line of defence than Frost, May has mentioned that he played best when Rory Thompson played at the same time because he did this. Frost is getting a lot smarter but I still wouldn't trust him to stick to this all game. So I agree that OMac is more complementary of May and lever than Frost, but both could play if either of those were missing