Winter is Coming

One of the more engaging ideas in George RR Martin's Game of Thrones is the looming Winter that finally comes after a decade long summer, and with the winter, the lifeless and violent 'White Walkers' who descend from the North. For the people of the Northern lands, in Winter, the body suffers and the mind grows weak.

In our great Southern Land, after record temperatures over the Pre-season, and record losses to start to the season proper, a long Winter is coming for the Melbourne Football Club.

I would posit that the combined skills, talent and experience of our playing list has not been reflected in our results, losses of 78, 148 & 94 points. This implies that something other ability is contributing to our poor performance. After being 'privileged' enough to view the Dees first hand at the G over the past three rounds, here are my humble observations as to what these contributing factors are:

Gameplan + Fitness: The body suffers.

Neeld has brought a gameplan to the Dees, fundamentally built on 'Team Defense', which for him is validated by the success of this approach during his time as both defensive and midfield coach at Collingwood, the 2010 Premiers. What has become apparent in all three games this season is that Melbourne's defensive zone is too easily penetrated by rival clubs. Whether or not his defensive zone works in theory, his desire to implement at a time when his players are not appropriately fit for AFL (as he has himself admitted) is a key reason for such high losing margins. This was particularly evident this week. After a competitive half against the Eagles, it became clear to me (at least) that the players were unable to sustain the intensity required to make a defensive zone effective - primarilly due to fitness. By leaving their opponents and setting up a zone, yet unable to generate defensive pressure, Melbourne is allowing opponent teams to move the ball, uncontested, from end to end. Mentally, this eases the pressure on opposing teams and the Wall breaks...cue the 'White Walkers'.

Mindset: The mind grows weak.

Football has become increasingly complicated and mentally challenging for players. Young men are micro-managed by a bevvy of coaching and fitness staff. For many young Demons, the weight of expectation that comes with being high draft picks, the suffocating media analysis that follows losing performances - or in-house and off-field issues - compounds the natural anxiety which arises from fear of failure. A lack of fitness cannot simply explain the appalling first half defensive efforts against Essendon and Port Adelaide. Many players, if not all, seem to to remain psychologically scarred from the enormous losses that ended Dean Bailey's career as coach. We cannot know all the reasons why the Melbourne mindset is so weak, and many theories are well documented, but it clearly continues to contribute to our losses. We do not know what happens inside the club, but it seems fair to suggest that Neeld has been unable to rebuild the mental strength of the players, and is possibly adding to the psychic wounds by persisting with a gameplan that the players cannot implement over four quarters.

Playing List: Winter is Coming:

For the Dees, it will be a long winter, regardless of gameplan or mindset. Our playing list lacks the skills, talent and experience to have any serious impact on season 2013. When players cannot hit targets by foot over short distances, handball behind or above teammates running past to receive, and drop uncontested marks in the backline, gameplan and mindset are not relevant. Confidence does matter, and with confidence comes improved play, but we remain disappointingly poor at the fundamentals of the game, despite endless of hours of coaching and development. Neeld has chosen to slowly rebuild by giving the 2011 team a chance to display their wares, before culling heavily at the end of 2012. He does not have to answer to criticism for poor skills and decision making by players with 50 plus games experience.

What Next? A Winter of Wonders

For me, reducing the pain over the coming Winter will depend on the path Neeld and the coaching staff choose to take. I am certain that if a simplified gameplan - man on man defense for example - was implemented, the losing margins would significantly reduce, as opposition teams would face an extended contest across the ground. The issue here is that Neeld came to the club with the promise of a gameplan. To give up on his beloved defensive zone would be difficult, and make his job position highly vulnerable to attack based on his failure to 'bring a gameplan'. To not give up his gameplan would possibly leave him even more vulnerable to an early season sacking. Even if his gameplan will one day work, losses to teams such as GWS and the Suns would likely end his career.

I do wonder what will happen next, and can only hope Neeld and his men find the appropriate strategy, but hold no illusions that the coming cold will somehow be to our benefit.

Note: Much of what is written here has been written elsewhere and I acknowledge all those who contribute their ideas on this site. For my own sanity, I needed to write it down so as to hopefully stop thinking about it.

beat gws and brizzy 2 /3 and averyone will be positive. we shouldnt hang our heads in shame. better still to hang in and support, it makes a difference, i not happy about a lot of things but you must back thier judgement till the end of year, email me in 2 weeks when were 2/3 and have something positive to say. ps hope you enjoy the rest of season

beat gws and brizzy 2 /3 and averyone will be positive. we shouldnt hang our heads in shame. better still to hang in and support, it makes a difference, i not happy about a lot of things but you must back thier judgement till the end of year, email me in 2 weeks when were 2/3 and have something positive to say. ps hope you enjoy the rest of season

I guarantee you that we will not beat Brisbane. We will be lucky to beat GWS.

Winter has been here since 1965 with the exception of a couple of false Springs. It is a long dark winter and it's not coming it is well and truly here.

well written BW.

Ha - I saw that coming before I opened the thread (I love Game of Thrones!)

Watching Game of Thrones = Gratuituos Sex and Violence

Watching MFC = Gratuitous Free Kicks Against and Violence Towards Maggots

Nice post.

Watching Game of Thrones = Gratuituos Sex and Violence

Watching MFC = Gratuitous Free Kicks Against and Violence Towards Maggots

Game of Thrones = Oblivion (elder scrolls) tv show - enough said!

And before anyone jumps in: "now is the winter of our discontent" is part of an optimistic phrase.

Leading up to Dean Bailey's sacking after Disaster One-Eight-Six, it was strikingly apparent that Bailey had drafted for one game play, but footy had changed and rendered that game plan redundant.

The question is: how much had/has it changed?

Collingwood had instigated the press which had been emulated by, among other teams, West Coast.

The way I see it, Bailey's papers were stamped the night WC stomped us in Perth in early 2011. The Geelong game was merely an ugly coup de grace.

And yet, since 2010 when Collingwood won the flag as they ambushed the comp with the press, the two flags have gone to Geelong and Sydney; the former an attack oriented side, the latter a defence oriented side.

Neeld was appointed based on a promise to make the Demons the hardest side to play against in the AFL. This had attractions for those appointing him, as Melbourne had been hopelessly incapable of dealing with defence oriented footy. In short: we were flat track bullies and flat track bullied, smashing the scrubbers and getting smashed by the good sides. Neeld was supposed to address this inconsistency.

The thing is, was the appointment based on valid foundations? This year have been trounced by Port and Essendon, who employ Geelong styles and West Coast who still have their press & rebound.

Should we have gone for a Geelong style coach (Thompson disciple) instead of a Collingwood style coach (Malthouse disciple)?

And before anyone jumps in: "now is the winter of our discontent" is part of an optimistic phrase.

I've got another one for you:

“. . .and in the eyes of the people there is the failure; and in the eyes of the hungry there is a growing wrath. In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage.”

― John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath

Great Post BW. I particularly like your observation about the fitness level required to play the game plan. I think the club got a little bit ahead of it's self with the improvements in our level of fitness over the pre season. I think you are spot on when you say that we still do not have the required fitness level to execute Neelds game plan.

Gold Coast have a younger list than us and a more talented list than us and their fitness levels and competitiveness is better than ours.

I struggle to understand how we became so unfit and how our levels of fitness fell below every other club in the competition.

Winter is not coming, it's here, and it's going to be long and hard. Anyway, in a few weeks we will be able to occupy ourselves with the upcoming draft.

Gold Coast have a younger list than us and a more talented list than us and their fitness levels and competitiveness is better than ours.

I struggle to understand how we became so unfit and how our levels of fitness fell below every other club in the competition.

Winter is not coming, it's here, and it's going to be long and hard. Anyway, in a few weeks we will be able to occupy ourselves with the upcoming draft.

RobbieF, how can you say that?

Leading up to Dean Bailey's sacking after Disaster One-Eight-Six, it was strikingly apparent that Bailey had drafted for one game play, but footy had changed and rendered that game plan redundant.

The question is: how much had/has it changed?

Collingwood had instigated the press which had been emulated by, among other teams, West Coast.

The way I see it, Bailey's papers were stamped the night WC stomped us in Perth in early 2011. The Geelong game was merely an ugly coup de grace.

And yet, since 2010 when Collingwood won the flag as they ambushed the comp with the press, the two flags have gone to Geelong and Sydney; the former an attack oriented side, the latter a defence oriented side.

Neeld was appointed based on a promise to make the Demons the hardest side to play against in the AFL. This had attractions for those appointing him, as Melbourne had been hopelessly incapable of dealing with defence oriented footy. In short: we were flat track bullies and flat track bullied, smashing the scrubbers and getting smashed by the good sides. Neeld was supposed to address this inconsistency.

The thing is, was the appointment based on valid foundations? This year have been trounced by Port and Essendon, who employ Geelong styles and West Coast who still have their press & rebound.

Should we have gone for a Geelong style coach (Thompson disciple) instead of a Collingwood style coach (Malthouse disciple)?

As Bailey was of the Geelong School which focussed on playing at all costs and moving the ball through - or close to - the corridor, it's no surprise that Melbourne chose an understudy from the team that invented the press. Bailey's game was effectively self-destructive against good defensive zones, as it played directly into their hands, and had a disastrous impact on players such as Frawley and Grimes, who had previously had the freedom to run and carry the ball, and where now turning the ball over repeatedly (was it 7.11 Hawthorn kicked against in a quarter early in the 2010 season?).

It will be interesting to monitor the progress of the large number of assistants who worked not only under Malthouse and Thompson, but also Roos and Williams. These former assistants now make up the majority of senior coaches across the land. Playing lists obviously play a large part in outcomes, but coaching styles make a difference.

The question then is, if we were to choose a new coach, who would it be and what style would be want to emulate?

Although my original post is fairly depressing in its sentiment, my real feeling is there is plenty of upside to out current performance, but whether the current coaching personnel can bring out the best in their players, I have my doubts. Neeld has had a horrible journey the whole way, to turn this boat around would be remarkable, but I can only hope. I genuinely loved being at the game on the weekend, and I'll be there throughout Winter, regardless of how cold it gets.

Play him at FB.

Play him at FB.

Why?

He'll get killed.

Its not a disaster yet.

When there is no hope, that is a disaster.

Its not a disaster yet.

When there is no hope, that is a disaster.

agree, i think weve all thrown our dummies and now its time to go forward and be confident and upbeat about OUR club