Actually next year there is still going to be 21 players and 1 sub.

Didn't they forward you the memo?

Meant the year after...

The FD is fortunately way ahead of most posters on here. Big bodies for ruck contests won't be needed.

The rules for rucking have changed in 2013. No grappling and no bounces around the ground = talls and big leapers are the way to go. Gawn and Spencil will be safe even with limited football capabilities. Martin not, although as an athlete he can get to contests. Jamar will struggle because he doesn't jump and is not an athlete......but is signed up, so he stays.

NicNat will have a ball......

I have a different take on the NicNat thing. He doesn't like physical contact in ruck duals, grappling is safe for him as no one is running at him. This is why opposition rucks have started to get into his body at centre bounces. The rule change to throw ins and around the ground ball ups allows them to do this in any ruck contest now and he will find it uncomfortable.

With the new rules a ruck man will need football smarts, strength and timing, this will always beat a pure athletic leaper.

Old, has succinctly summed up why the club would prefer the File to Martin.

Martin isn't a great tap ruckman, but plays his best footy as a first ruck and he's useless as a forward. He's a very athletic player that certainly has his moments, but his limitations get exposed when his best value is an area we already have covered.

Pedo, or the File as he's affectionately known, is a far better forward prospect than Martin and I'd expect Clark to do most of the rucking in the forward-line if Jamar plays a kick behind play. I really see the File as a terrific third banana to Clark and Dawes. But he can also play in defence. He's got good pace and is agile. He may take the odd ruck contest, but his value lies in being another big forward. Clark is the best ruckman at the club, so I don't mind him taking those 20 minutes when Donuts is getting his rub down.

Clark - 60 goals

Dawes - 35 goals

File - 35 goals

Byrnes - 25 goals

That would work for me.

I have a different take on the NicNat thing. He doesn't like physical contact in ruck duals, grappling is safe for him as no one is running at him. This is why opposition rucks have started to get into his body at centre bounces. The rule change to throw ins and around the ground ball ups allows them to do this in any ruck contest now and he will find it uncomfortable.

With the new rules a ruck man will need football smarts, strength and timing, this will always beat a pure athletic leaper.

He didn't like physical contact when he was 19, but I don't see it as an issue now. Naitanui more than holds his own in this regard.

Jamar worked him over early in his career and negated his leap by jumping at him early, but Naitanui can counter those tactics now.

Clark - 60 goals

Dawes - 35 goals

File - 35 goals

Byrnes - 25 goals

That would work for me.

I'd be happy with:

Clark - 50 goals

Dawes - 30 goals

File - 20 goals

Byrnes - 15 goals

He didn't like physical contact when he was 19, but I don't see it as an issue now. Naitanui more than holds his own in this regard.

Jamar worked him over early in his career and negated his leap by jumping at him early, but Naitanui can counter those tactics now.

Further to RJays comments, I think the ruckman that gets the prime position FIRST will have advantage,... sure NicNat can jump over the top of people, but he can't make contact without giving away a free, and the ball is being thrown up, so it won't go up as high, and he wont have a lot of time to settle himself either.

Don't think he has a great engine on him either.... so he would want to improve that a bit too.

If we have Dawes and Pedersen in the fwd line then Clark can go into the ruck for 20 minutes and, as someone observed, we really get a lot of drive when he's in there.

Old, has succinctly summed up why the club would prefer the File to Martin.

Martin isn't a great tap ruckman, but plays his best footy as a first ruck and he's useless as a forward. He's a very athletic player that certainly has his moments, but his limitations get exposed when his best value is an area we already have covered.

Pedo, or the File as he's affectionately known, is a far better forward prospect than Martin and I'd expect Clark to do most of the rucking in the forward-line if Jamar plays a kick behind play. I really see the File as a terrific third banana to Clark and Dawes. But he can also play in defence. He's got good pace and is agile. He may take the odd ruck contest, but his value lies in being another big forward. Clark is the best ruckman at the club, so I don't mind him taking those 20 minutes when Donuts is getting his rub down.

[media=]

great show wisedog

He didn't like physical contact when he was 19, but I don't see it as an issue now. Naitanui more than holds his own in this regard.

Jamar worked him over early in his career and negated his leap by jumping at him early, but Naitanui can counter those tactics now.

He still struggles with it at times though 'Ben' and it is a way to get him particularly with the angles that will come into play at throw ins and around the ground given there will not (I may be wrong on this) be an imaginary line like at centre bounces. He's a talented kid and I'm sure he will come to terms with it but I don't think it will be the free hit many think. A ruckman will need more than just athletic ability.

I'd be happy with:

Clark - 50 goals

Dawes - 30 goals

File - 20 goals

Byrnes - 15 goals

Yes, I may be a little greedy.

If Clark plays 22 games he should kick over 60. He played 11 games this year, but was subbed out twice at half-time, so he averaged 2.9 goals per game for the full 10 he played.

In 2011 Dawes was on track to kick 39 goals if he'd kept up his average from his first 12 games prior to fracturing his knuckle.

In Pederson's last 12 games of AFL footy he has kicked 20 goals at an average of 1.66 which extrapolates to 36 over 22.

Byrnes kicked over 30 goals two years running when he was last a staple in the Geelong team - 2010. I'd expect an average of at least one goal per game.

But yes, things rarely work out the way you hoped they would.

I'd be happy with:

Clark - 50 goals

Dawes - 30 goals

File - 20 goals

Byrnes - 15 goals

I'd be happy with that only if you add.

20 Goals from Davey

20 Goals from Blease

20 Goals from Sylvia

and another 30 Goals from the Midfield.

Plus throw in another 30 goals from cameo performances

Edited October 22, 201212 yr by Chippy

Add 20 to Jeremy Howe

;-))

I'd be happy with that only if you add.

20 Goals from Davey

20 Goals from Blease

20 Goals from Sylvia

and another 30 Goals from the Midfield.

Plus throw in another 30 goals from cameo performances

Jones, Trengove, and all the other mids (excl. Howe and the ones you mentioned above) combined for 63 goals. Not a bad effort...

If you are scoring at home, you really want to hitting 15 goals a game - about 330-350 a year.

Clark, Dawes, Pedersen, Byrnes, and Howe: 150 goals.

Sylvia, Jones, Trengove and Blease: 70 goals.

Assorted mids: 40 goals.

That's all I can see really...

We kicked 220 goals in 2012.

You are suggesting 260 in 2013, which raises the question of how much better will we be in 2013.

Is a 15% increase in goals OK? Was 2012 a down year for scoring given the absence of LJ, decline of Brad Green and Moloney's strike?

I think we'll get close to 300 goals.

Edited October 22, 201212 yr by PaulRB

Can we make Peter File nominate for the PSD if North are going to stuff us around?

Trade Martin to Bris for pick 33, use pick 33 on Ray, take the Pedo with PSD3 for "free."

Is this too simple?

Can we make Peter File nominate for the PSD if North are going to stuff us around?

Trade Martin to Bris for pick 33, use pick 33 on Ray, take the Pedo with PSD3 for "free."

Is this too simple?

Yes it is. Pedo is contracted to NM. No draft for him.

Old, has succinctly summed up why the club would prefer the File to Martin.

Martin isn't a great tap ruckman, but plays his best footy as a first ruck and he's useless as a forward. He's a very athletic player that certainly has his moments, but his limitations get exposed when his best value is an area we already have covered.

Pedo, or the File as he's affectionately known, is a far better forward prospect than Martin and I'd expect Clark to do most of the rucking in the forward-line if Jamar plays a kick behind play. I really see the File as a terrific third banana to Clark and Dawes. But he can also play in defence. He's got good pace and is agile. He may take the odd ruck contest, but his value lies in being another big forward. Clark is the best ruckman at the club, so I don't mind him taking those 20 minutes when Donuts is getting his rub down.

Clark - 60 goals

Dawes - 35 goals

File - 35 goals

Byrnes - 25 goals

That would work for me.

I think its ridiculous to speculate on goal kicking. Dawes for example never kicked more than 30 in a season at The Filth, Its a big leap to think he can kick a lot more with us. His 5 years were 5, 5, 16, 30, 27 goals. Pederson would even be lower I imagine.

The very definition of speculation is to take what you do know and extrapolate into extended areas.

Dawes's ability to kick goals this season was hampered by two things.. recovering from injury and being played as much in the ruck as much as a forward. Despite this he still manages 16.

Humour me.

2010 20 games for 30 goals. @ 1.5/game

2011 18 games for 27 goals @ 1.5/ game

2012 23 games for 16 goals but ought to factor in approx ( for sake of argument ) 50% penalty for other duties. We could theorise @ approx 1.4 /game therefore.

Thats fairly consistent despite injury and played oop.

why is it so unrealistic to suppose therefore 22 games in red and blue @1.5 for 33 goals ??

i reckon thats exactly what he'll do...30-33 goals in 13...all things being equal

I think its ridiculous to speculate on goal kicking. Dawes for example never kicked more than 30 in a season at The Filth, Its a big leap to think he can kick a lot more with us. His 5 years were 5, 5, 16, 30, 27 goals. Pederson would even be lower I imagine.

well obviously we are hoping he hasn't hit his peak yet - remember the bloke has only 2 seasons and 16 games over Jack Watts

The very definition of speculation is to take what you do know and extrapolate into extended areas.

Dawes's ability to kick goals this season was hampered by two things.. recovering from injury and being played as much in the ruck as much as a forward. Despite this he still manages 16.

Humour me.

2010 20 games for 30 goals. @ 1.5/game

2011 18 games for 27 goals @ 1.5/ game

2012 23 games for 16 goals but ought to factor in approx ( for sake of argument ) 50% penalty for other duties. We could theorise @ approx 1.4 /game therefore.

Thats fairly consistent despite injury and played oop.

why is it so unrealistic to suppose therefore 22 games in red and blue @1.5 for 33 goals ??

i reckon thats exactly what he'll do...30-33 goals in 13...all things being equal

I Love Like a bloke with stats.

You should be employed by Alan Koehler.

My guess was based on, that we will be better defensively, therefore stopping opposition score blowouts.

But in doing so, will only require 12 goals to win games.

Wishful thinking, but realistically I think we are still about 2 years away from being a final 8 side.

Gee we certainly have been side tracked from the "Cam Pederson Thread"

A demonland thread sidetracked ?

Never happens

Was a mention on Trade Radio that North might be reconsidering their willingness to trade Pederson having lost Macintosh.

Just Barrett rambling on possibly but he did mention that they are now considering keeping him as a 'backup'.

Cam Mooney about to berate Melbourne for trading our early picks.

Cam Mooney.....WOW....they got the brains trust onto it!