Why ?

Demetriou has done absolutely nothing to make me think other wise.

Started with Judds Visy deal to give Carlton a leg up and has continued from there with the draw and now his new babies GWS and GC.

If the shoe was on the other foot and GWS or the Suns could manipulate the draft to suit themselves he'd give 'em the all clear and praise them for being creative.

You say Demetriou has given you no reason to think otherwise, yet your argument is purely hypothetical in that GWS or GC would be given the all clear to manipulate the draft, pretty flakey reasoning at best. Was it not GWS who were hatching a plan to get Jaeger O'Meara by trading themselves dodgily into the mini draft and the AFL shot it down.

So you really believe that GC or GWS would jeopardise getting the best picks that THEY need just to force the MFC to take Viney? You also then believe that Melbourne would pick him regardless of his worth....

As said above by other posters, it's paranoia gone mad. It looks like Viney is being rated by a lot of people as a top 5 pick.... the only way we are going to get shafted is if he isn't rated as a top 10 pick AND GWS or GC attempt to bluff us into taking him for more than he is worth. But it could easily backfire and we say No, and they have to take him... missing out on the true talent. Then who looks stupid?

It's so much easier if you 'Assume' that Viney is worth a top 5 pick which seems to be the case at the moment.... at the worst we have to pay basically what he is worth...

My point being exactly what you raise here. You state that we should assume he is a top 5 pick. Lets assume his value is pick 4 or 5 (for the sake of MY position). That means we have overpaid by 1 or two picks if we are left with pick 3 from a shyte year (assumoing GWS or GC bid). So in this instance, the father son system has not worked, it has made MFC overpay. Remember that when a club nominates a father son - they do not know what others will do. Perhaps if we did not elect him as a father son he would fall to pick 6. In this draft it does not matter becasue we might have picks 3 and 4, but in others it might.

While some people view this as a one or two pick valuation issue, the problem has potential to develop into far more of an issue in following years. There will be a time where the gap between the bid and the FS club pick is very small - maybe only 1 or two picks - but the talent discrepency is huge. Remember drafts like this (i.e 2007 where Cotchin and Kruezer were 2 clear standouts and the rest were a big gap behind). The FS club is almost morally bound to do the right thing, as it would start a terrible precedent for the FS club not to go through with a FS pick for the sake of one pick. What chance will they have of getting future FS targets to commit to the club?

I understand your points in that we may only slightly overpay - but overpaying is the problem. Clubs are comprimised beyond simple recruiting in terms of club culture and history with this system.

Lets not forget GWS want the best picks they can get in this draft. If they could get our first pick on an under 17 year old, why would they risk losing their pick to us and forcing us to give away our first pick if we want JV.

As for GC, a deal of a player cleared to them and maybe a swap of draft picks wipes out the scenario, not to mention them also losing the player they want by bluffing us and us calling the bluff.

We can do a deal with integrity and keep this process from becoming a complete sham.

The real winners here will be Bombers who will get Daniher at a late first round pick, way below what he is worth.

We would ONLY overpay though if they nominate him. If we don't rate him as a top 3 pick, or more specifically the MFC don't believe that his value warrants a top 4 pick (because we get pick 3 and 4) then I honestly don't believe that they would take him. Meaning that the GWS or GC do have to take him, and we effectively are given pick 2 AND 3 in the draft.

The stakes are too high to make a bluff that could cost you a top 2 draft pick.

Edited June 28, 201213 yr by Oucher

We would ONLY overpay though if they nominate him. If we don't rate him as a top 3 pick, or more specifically the MFC don't believe that his value warrants a top 4 pick (because we get pick 3 and 4) then I honestly don't believe that they would take him. Meaning that the GWS or GC do have to take him, and we then get by way of them nominating him pick 2 AND 3 in the draft.

Predicated on us not changing ladder position at the end of the season.

Best thing for us would be for JV to have a quiet finish to the year and a couple of other boys to come storming home. Then the risk for teams below us nominating him becomes great.

He's rated 2-3 in the draft, has been touted as a natural leader and one of the hardest players to ever come through the system, we've already been training him for a year so almost comes in as a 2nd year prospect, and he loves the MFC so in all likelihood is gonna stick around. We're probably taking him at number 3.

I think we'll survive.

We would ONLY overpay though if they nominate him. If we don't rate him as a top 3 pick, or more specifically the MFC don't believe that his value warrants a top 4 pick (because we get pick 3 and 4) then I honestly don't believe that they would take him. Meaning that the GWS or GC do have to take him, and we effectively are given pick 2 AND 3 in the draft.

The stakes are too high to make a bluff that could cost you a top 2 draft pick.

I cannot tell you how much I disagree with the bolded sentence. As Yossarian notes, Viney has a great deal going for him and we will pay the slight overs (if that) for him.

I don't think we will hesitate if they made us use Pick 3.

As I've said elsewhere, Viney will be in the red and blue next year, make no mistake about it.

Its no biggy, we pick the best available at 3 and 4, if thats Viney, then hell be picked.

If there is better available then Jack wont be picked, I dare say.

Viney might blow the championships apart and the speculation of GC and GWS picking him

will be well and truely put to bed.

Its no biggy, we pick the best available at 3 and 4, if thats Viney, then hell be picked.

If there is better available then Jack wont be picked, I dare say.

Viney might blow the championships apart and the speculation of GC and GWS picking him

will be well and truely put to bed.

We have to decide around 6 weeks before the draft.

From where I sit, if he is the best available we will nominate him and if he isn't the best available we will nominate him anyway and say that he was the best available...

We have to decide around 6 weeks before the draft.

From where I sit, if he is the best available we will nominate him and if he isn't the best available we will nominate him anyway and say that he was the best available...

thats about the long and short of it ..I agree

Some clubs in the recent past have done really well out of F/S picks, that they got for a much later pick than their value. The obvious example is Geelong with Abletts, Scarlett & Hawkins - 3 premierships to date. The idea being that all clubs consider it fair enough if another club pays unders for a F/S.

Because that's part of what F/S have always been about - even in the days of zoning before the draft, when clubs had first dibs on their F/S prospects. In other words, if a club gets a very generous deal in acquiring a F/S, that's always been 'fair enough'.

What's got up other clubs' noses about MFC in this draft is that they think we got overcompensated for Scully, despite him being a No.1 pick in a recent draft. That's the only reason they want GWS & GC to bid for JV. If it wasn't for the Scully compo factor, there wouldn't be a problem with us taking JV in the second round, considering where we're likely to finish. Yes, it's exceedingly generous, but that's part of what F/S is about.

How many other F/S's, apart from Murphy (who was a clear and universally-agreed No.1 pick), have had to be taken in the first 3? And how many clubs previously have had to pay overs, however slight, for a F/S?

The recent statement about having an MOU, rather than a binding contract, with JV indicates to me that at least some at the club have the feeling that we should be allowed to do what other clubs would be able to do in the same circumstances - take him in the second round rather than at No.3. Not because he's not worth No.3, but because what clubs would reasonably expect in the same situation is that there would be no dummy bids and they could take him in the second round.

Remember too that GWS & GC will have no access to F/S picks for a generation. That's what this is all about.

Edited June 28, 201213 yr by Akum

ok lots to take in here , , but if the lad really want to be a dee , and ive no doubt , can he say to others , bugger off , im not playing with you fools i, ll stand out of footy for a year , ? what then ???

I cannot tell you how much I disagree with the bolded sentence. As Yossarian notes, Viney has a great deal going for him and we will pay the slight overs (if that) for him.

I don't think we will hesitate if they made us use Pick 3.

Before you go off half cocked.... tell me exactly where that sentence actually disagrees with what you or Yossarian are saying? I said IF they don't rate him at pick 3 or 4 then they wouldn't take him.... (Nor would I expect ANY club in the AFL if they didn't feel the player warranted it) I personally have little doubt he warrants such a pick and it's a moot point.

It is almost certain that Melbourne will take him, and it's likely it will be with draft pick 3, but my point is that the reason we will have to use that pick is because I suspect that GC or GWS will 'Legitimately' rate him that highly as well. They won't be, and can't afford to play games if they cannot be prepared to take him on their list if MFC 'hypothetically' said no.

Before you go off half cocked.... tell me exactly where that sentence actually disagrees with what you or Yossarian are saying? I said IF they don't rate him at pick 3 or 4 then they wouldn't take him.... (Nor would I expect ANY club in the AFL if they didn't feel the player warranted it) I personally have little doubt he warrants such a pick and it's a moot point.

It is almost certain that Melbourne will take him, and it's likely it will be with draft pick 3, but my point is that the reason we will have to use that pick is because I suspect that GC or GWS will 'Legitimately' rate him that highly as well. They won't be, and can't afford to play games if they cannot be prepared to take him on their list if MFC 'hypothetically' said no.

We are saying all the right things to engender doubt that he is worth Pick 3 and that we will take him if we don't think he is worth Pick 3.

But they are all beautiful lies - we will take him at 3 if we are forced to. Whether we think he is the 6th best talent or the 3rd best talent.

You just don't overlook the son of a former great that is the toughest kid of his gheneration and has amazing intangibles that will make him an instantly valuable player.

ok lots to take in here , , but if the lad really want to be a dee , and ive no doubt , can he say to others , bugger off , im not playing with you fools i, ll stand out of footy for a year , ? what then ???

Then we'd be faced with the same problem next year I would have thought.

Although we can use our pick 3 for a player which isn't Viney- and next year if we climb higher than 17th, we will get better value with the Viney pick. But people will still complain we had to use a low pick on a player we could have gotten second round while X was available..

I want JV in the midfield 2013 round 1. If it's pick 3 then it's pick 3. Imagine our midfield now with a young "angry Mitchell" in it. Stuff the games, when it comes to the crunch we bite the bullet.

We are saying all the right things to engender doubt that he is worth Pick 3 and that we will take him if we don't think he is worth Pick 3.

But they are all beautiful lies - we will take him at 3 if we are forced to. Whether we think he is the 6th best talent or the 3rd best talent.

You just don't overlook the son of a former great that is the toughest kid of his gheneration and has amazing intangibles that will make him an instantly valuable player.

The club isn't going to be 'compelled' to pay more than they believe he is worth. I like seeing them stand up this way....(even if they are playing games) Again don't interpret / misinterpret this as saying I don't rate Viney, personally I do, and personally I think pick 3 might be about the right price. I would love nothing more than for him to rip up the rest of the season and be 1 or 2 meaning we get him for a steal, but you can't ignore the other talent around when making a call on Viney.

Is drafting an exact science all of a sudden?

There are waaaay to many examples of relative duds early and amazing talents late to get hung up on this.

Morton? D. Martin? Darling? Kreuzer v Cotchin?

Who can be bothered listing all the examples every draft?

I'd like to get Viney as a bargain like Ablett and co were obtained. History now. Essendung will get lucky with Daniher.

We got lucky saving $$$ on Skuldog and got what will turn out pretty robust compensation.

It's a strong position to be in.

my brain hurts....