1/2 Way - Rnd-11 {Predicted ladder positions}

1 St Kilda 40

2 Collingwood 36

3 Fremantle 36

4 Sydney 36

5 Port Adelaide 36

6 Geelong 32

7 Bulldogs 24

8 Melbourne 20

--------------------

9 Carlton 16

10 Brisbane 16

11 North Melbourne 16

12 Hawthorn 12

13 Essendon 12

14 Adelaide 12

15 West Coast 8

16 Richmond 0

This is my surprise results after finding & utilising the 2010 AFL Bailey ladder predictor. Watts yours?

http://www.afl.com.a...46/default.aspx

Edited May 9, 201015 yr by dee-luded

Just say we were to make the eight at year's end.

Barring a bad run with injuries we could well cause a few headaches. Think Friday night's team plus Watts, Morton, Wonaeamirri and Jurrah, possible even Jetta and Gysberts if they keep up their improving form. I'll tell you one thing folks, we're going to be a very, very, very good side sooner rather than later.

After Rnd 11

1 St Kilda 40

2 Geelong 36

3 Fremantle 36

4 Collingwood 32

5 Sydney 32

6 Western Bulldogs 24

7 Melbourne 24

8 Port Adelaide 24

9 Carlton 20

10 Brisbane 20

11 North Melbourne 20

12 Hawthorn 16

13 Essendon 12

14 West Coast 8

15 Adelaide 4

16 Richmond 4

Richmond for a shock win over Port based on the fact nobody has won the week after playing us

Edited May 9, 201015 yr by eth38

1. St Kilda 40

2. Collingwood 36

3. Sydney 36

4. Geelong 32

5. Fremantle 32

6. Port Adelaide 28

7. Western Bulldogs 24

8. Melbourne 20

9. Carlton 20

10. North Melbourne 20

11. Brisbane 16

12. Hawthorn 12

13. Essendon 12

14. Adelaide 12

15. West Coast 8

16. Richmond 0

Interesting exercise dee-luded. We should beat West Coast. We should lose to Geelong. Port Adelaide and Carlton are line ball. Factoring in our poor record interstate, I've skeptically budgeted for a loss to Port. Best case scenario is 6-5 after round 11.

Edited May 9, 201015 yr by paddo

Did the whole season. 8th with 11 wins. Nearly put Essendon vs Lions at Docklands as a draw, but I made it an Essendon win, which kept us in because Brisbane were 9th on percentage

St Kilda - 40

Collingwood - 36

Geelong - 32

Bulldogs - 32

Port Adelaide - 32

Fremantle - 28

Sydney - 28

Melbourne - 20

Carlton - 20

Lions - 20

Hawthorn - 16

North Melbourne - 16

Essendon - 12

Adelaide - 12

West Coast - 8

Richmond - 0

I went through the whole season and had the Dees finishing on 11 wins and scraping into the finals on percentage. But realistically, I think our losses to Collingwood and Bulldogs will keep us out. Carlton will be the major threat.

1. St Kilda 40

2. Collingwood 36

3. Sydney 36

4. Geelong 32

5. Fremantle 32

6. Port Adelaide 28

7. Western Bulldogs 24

8. Melbourne 20

9. Carlton 20

10. North Melbourne 20

11. Brisbane 16

12. Hawthorn 12

13. Essendon 12

14. Adelaide 12

15. West Coast 8

16. Richmond 0

Interesting exercise dee-luded. We should beat West Coast. We should lose to Geelong. Port Adelaide and Carlton are line ball. Factoring in our poor record interstate, I've skeptically budgeted for a loss to Port. Best case scenario is 6-5 after round 11.

I'll try the full season scenario & se what I come up with. I think the Crows are about to improve.

Prediction after Rnd-22

1 Geelong 76

2 Fremantle 76

3 Collingwood 72

4 St Kilda 72

5 Sydney 64

6 Bulldogs 60

7 Port Adelaide 60

8 Brisbane 40

--------------------

9 Melbourne 36

10 Carlton 32

11 Essendon 28

12 Adelaide 28

13 Hawthorn 20

14 North Melbourne 20

15 West Coast 16 = Priority Pick 6

16 Richmond 4 = Priority Pick 4

Edited May 9, 201015 yr by dee-luded

I've been thinking would making the 8 this year be better for the group or worse?

Would they get a bit complacent where as say finishing 9th, 10th might mean more hunger?

Based on current form excluding possible upsets

Melbourne for the season

11 wins - 11 losses

This is far beyond my expectations at the start of the year

On top of that I believe Carlton may also total 11 wins - 11 losses as well

So dependent on both teams % at the end of the season, so will be Melbs position be determined, possibly 8th or 9th

Therefore a win against Carlton is a must if Melbourne has any expectation of being higher than 9th at the end of the season

Based on current form I expect Melbourne to be 6 wins, 5 losses after round 11, and in the overal scheme on the season I think will be battling for 8th spot with Carlton, Port Adelaide and maybe Hawthorn (if they get their act together) come seasons end.

This is beyond my expectations as I was looking for 6 - 8 wins for the year at the start of the season. This then begs the question, do we want to make the finals one year ahead of schedual?

If we make the finals it will be in 8th spot, and they may be the danger of then having happen to us what happened to Essendon in the finals last year. Is this experience good for them or counter productive? What's everyones thoughts on that?

Based on current form I expect Melbourne to be 6 wins, 5 losses after round 11, and in the overal scheme on the season I think will be battling for 8th spot with Carlton, Port Adelaide and maybe Hawthorn (if they get their act together) come seasons end.

This is beyond my expectations as I was looking for 6 - 8 wins for the year at the start of the season. This then begs the question, do we want to make the finals one year ahead of schedual?

If we make the finals it will be in 8th spot, and they may be the danger of then having happen to us what happened to Essendon in the finals last year. Is this experience good for them or counter productive? What's everyones thoughts on that?

We take september action if we earn it. Finishing 8th we may have an MCG final & then who knows what might happen.

Experience you cannot buy. I don't think bailey will allow complacency-it just doesn't feel like its around Melbourne at present

Maybe Jim Stynes is helping rid that one.

If we make the finals it will be in 8th spot, and they may be the danger of then having happen to us what happened to Essendon in the finals last year. Is this experience good for them or counter productive? What's everyones thoughts on that?

I would love us to make the finals this year. Who cares if it is 8th and we get done like the proverbial dinner... I get the feeling that the current playing group would take away the positive that we were widely expected to finish last again and that they have therefore by far exceeded all expectations; in fact, I get the feeling that some of the players would actually lift in a final and that we could get past the elimination round.

What I like at the moment though is the fact that if the Saints win by just a few points tonight, we actually move up the ladder one place, despite our loss on Friday.

I would love us to make the finals this year. Who cares if it is 8th and we get done like the proverbial dinner... I get the feeling that the current playing group would take away the positive that we were widely expected to finish last again and that they have therefore by far exceeded all expectations; in fact, I get the feeling that some of the players would actually lift in a final and that we could get past the elimination round.

What I like at the moment though is the fact that if the Saints win by just a few points tonight, we actually move up the ladder one place, despite our loss on Friday.

If we finishes eighth would be a mighty effort.

Edited May 10, 201015 yr by jayceebee31

I'm not overly fussed if we sneak in or just miss out, I think either result would provide the boys with plenty of motivation heading into next year. The important thing is we can maintain our present form for the entire season. I know we can expect the odd performance like the one we dished up against North, but if we can stay competitive, even on our off days, this year will have been a major success.

Based on current form excluding possible upsets

Melbourne for the season

11 wins - 11 losses

This is far beyond my expectations at the start of the year

On top of that I believe Carlton may also total 11 wins - 11 losses as well

So dependent on both teams % at the end of the season, so will be Melbs position be determined, possibly 8th or 9th

Therefore a win against Carlton is a must if Melbourne has any expectation of being higher than 9th at the end of the season

IMO all of this pre conjecture is getting us ahead of ourselves. Not our discussions, but our potential ladder positions are mostly due to the poor form of some teams who rightfully Should be expected to be performing above us. Hawthorn/Adelaide,,,,, & Essendon/West Coast should be our equals. This is having the effect of artificially pushing us up.

This is beyond my expectations as I was looking for 6 - 8 wins for the year at the start of the season. This then begs the question, do we want to make the finals one year ahead of schedual?

If we make the finals it will be in 8th spot, and they may be the danger of then having happen to us what happened to Essendon in the finals last year. Is this experience good for them or counter productive? What's everyones thoughts on that?

I think any experience at this stage is definitely worth while. I'd rather the players be overawed now rather than when we're a more realistic chance in a year or two.

I doubt Essendon's finals exit had much to do with their slump. They managed to get the best out of themselves under a new coach, but ultimately they were grossly flattered by the result. To be honest, they're about where I expected them to be.

Melbourne have taken the long road to success and have a far greater scope for improvement. When we 'arrive' it will be a long stay.

9 to 10 wins. (Predicted 8 wins).

Its no shame but I dont think we will make the finals this year.

The losses to the Pies and Dogs will cost us but hopefully we have learnt the lessons.

I wonder if younger bodies will tire toward the end of the season.

Rs 9 to 18 (sans Essendon and Adelaide) look tough.

Based on current form I expect Melbourne to be 6 wins, 5 losses after round 11, and in the overal scheme on the season I think will be battling for 8th spot with Carlton, Port Adelaide and maybe Hawthorn (if they get their act together) come seasons end.

the funniest thing i have read today....no chance of that happening

the funniest thing i have read today....no chance of that happening

Not even with a fit Mitchell, Franklin and Burgoyne on the park? I think they'll have a bit of a surge but finish on around 10 wins.

Not even with a fit Mitchell, Franklin and Burgoyne on the park? I think they'll have a bit of a surge but finish on around 10 wins.

they have completely lost interest this year, and come after the split round any player with the slightest niggle will be moth balled and sent for surgery

9 to 10 wins. (Predicted 8 wins).

Its no shame but I dont think we will make the finals this year.

I did the lot, and came up with ten wins... and in one or two I was giving us the fifty-fifty call.

No shame at all...

Though it puts the Pies and Dogs games in a different light. Every team loses close ones as the season progresses... just not close ones we SHOULD have won.

9 to 10 wins. (Predicted 8 wins).

Its no shame but I dont think we will make the finals this year.

The losses to the Pies and Dogs will cost us but hopefully we have learnt the lessons.

I wonder if younger bodies will tire toward the end of the season.

Rs 9 to 18 (sans Essendon and Adelaide) look tough.

Agreed, no shame. This whole year (thus far) has already exceeded my expectations after the 1st game against the Hawks and the practice match form leading into the season.

2011 is a massive crunch season.

the funniest thing i have read today....no chance of that happening

Your probably right, they're a weird one Hawthorn, how do you go from being premiers to being so bad so quickly?

9 to 10 wins. (Predicted 8 wins).

Its no shame but I dont think we will make the finals this year.

The losses to the Pies and Dogs will cost us but hopefully we have learnt the lessons.

I wonder if younger bodies will tire toward the end of the season.

Rs 9 to 18 (sans Essendon and Adelaide) look tough.

Your right about the young bodies tiring, especially during 9 - 18 RR.

Hopefully this is where the depth we're trying to create can help us with this problem. If players like Gysberts, Maric, Jetta, Strauss etc, etc can play a few games to give the likes of Scully, Trengove, McKenzie, Grimes one or two rest weeks then hopefully we should be able to keep our form going till seasons end.

I love it when Melbourne wins, but lets all take a deep breath and consider the following three questions:

1. How are wqe doing at Docklands this year? (one more to go)

2. How are we going on the road this year? (six more to go)

3. Are we winning the close ones or losing them?