Revised draft system - lottery

[CarnTheDees 52]

Bottom 4 into the lottery - 6 balls, 4 balls, 2 balls and 1 ball. 46%, 31%, 15%, 8%

[Sir Why You Little 36,963]

Bottom 4 into the lottery - 6 balls, 4 balls, 2 balls and 1 ball. 46%, 31%, 15%, 8%

I bet the AFL go for that in future. I don't all together agree with it but i think it could be the best compromise.

[Mousey 47]

Should be done like the NBA lottery!

Works well! Very rarely see much surprises only rarely and when it does it is a bit exciting being a fan when you find out how lucky you have got!

Lottery system are pretty bullet proof. Like the more chance you have the most likely you will get that pick etc. I think just having one a lone for our league would make teams try there very hardest to the end with the knowledge anything "can happen" in the lottery!. Also prize money for teams who make finals should be awarded.

PP should stay but only for the start of the second round like someone else said.

I think everything does need looking at.

The sheer fact that supporters of clubs are not going out to cheer for there team with 100% effort is the worry! It should NOT and NEVER be like this! Vlad has to relise this even if he continues to say TEAMS dont tank thats fine, have that! but the current system is making their fans not appreciate and most of all ENJOY the football each week for the last weeks!

It SUCKS at the moment AFL, it really sucks and i pray things change at the conclusion of this year

[Vipercrunch 2,820]

I think everything does need looking at.

The sheer fact that supporters of clubs are not going out to cheer for there team with 100% effort is the worry! It should NOT and NEVER be like this! Vlad has to relise this even if he continues to say TEAMS dont tank thats fine, have that! but the current system is making their fans not appreciate and most of all ENJOY the football each week for the last weeks!

That sums it up. The fact the so many Melbourne supporters weren't even slightly annoyed or dissapointed by a loss after the siren to a terrible Richmond means that the system has too many drawbacks and needs to be changed.

[Kit Walker 225]

Bottom 4 into the lottery - 6 balls, 4 balls, 2 balls and 1 ball. 46%, 31%, 15%, 8%

I like that (or some variation on the number of chances for each team) better than the entire bottom 8.

Still think that getting rid of the priority pick will eradicate most of the tanking talk/reality. Much more difficult to tank to finish last rather than simply to win less than 5 games. Also, the incentive to get pick 1 instead of 3 is a lot less than 1 & 2 instead of just pick 3.

[Toad33 57]

The draft system needs to change to stop all this talk about tanking.

Lottery system from BF (and elsewhere):

16th 8 balls

15th 7 balls

14th 6 balls

13th 5 balls

12th 4 balls

11th 3 balls

10th 2 balls

9th 1 ball

1 ball from the 36 is drawn for the number 1 pick. Continue until pick 8. If a team that has already been drawn is drawn again that ball is discarded until an undrawn team is drawn. 8th gets pick 9 thru to 1st at pick 16. From the second round onwards just revert back to 16th getting the first pick in the second round.

There is not sufficient incentive to try to finish 15th or 16th over 13th or 14th. The 9th placed team has odds of 36 to 1 of getting the number one pick so you can imagine that it wouldnt happen very often.

Priority pick:

Retain it but have it always at the start of the second round. There's benefit there e.g. a player like Blease but not enough to tempt a team to deliberately lose.

Just to clarify something for you all.

All a lottery will solve is the TANKING issue......

.....it does NOT guarantee the to most deserving or needing team gets the No. 1 pick, and last time I checked that was THE SOLE PURPOSE OF THE DRAFT, regardless of priority picks, to ensure the most deserving team gets access to the best player(s)!!

Go Dees - Worry about winning next year.

[Hannabal 4]

Just to clarify something for you all.

All a lottery will solve is the TANKING issue......

.....it does NOT guarantee the to most deserving or needing team gets the No. 1 pick, and last time I checked that was THE SOLE PURPOSE OF THE DRAFT, regardless of priority picks, to ensure the most deserving team gets access to the best player(s)!!

Go Dees - Worry about winning next year.

I agree. It's about helping the clubs that need it most.

[LITTLE STINGA 1]

The fact the so many Melbourne supporters weren't even slightly annoyed or dissapointed by a loss after the siren to a terrible Richmond means that the system has too many drawbacks and needs to be changed.

Yeah take away something that could only make teams like ours worse makes sense NOT. Even if their were no priority picks I wouldn't care if we won or lost. It's all about making the finals and all year we haven't been in the hunt so it's all about player developement. 2 of our best 3 players were 20 year olds in Petterd and Grimes. The week before Morton shut down a gun player in Goodes and Jurrah has been an excitement machine since he has come into the side.

As long as youngsters are showing good signs it doesn't matter if we win or lose this year, the priority pick just makes it a bit more of an incentive to lose. When no one is showing anything like from rnds 11 to 13 and we are losing then I would get worried.

If we were in Essendon's position I would be shattered but we aren't. All I want is for our kids to show improvement and for our club to have the best possible chance of recruiting the best possible kids available in the draft and that means losing. I don't have a problem with it and I don't know why people do there is no way to stop perceived tanking unless you want an uneven draft.

[Sir Why You Little 36,963]

Yeah take away something that could only make teams like ours worse makes sense NOT. Even if their were no priority picks I wouldn't care if we won or lost. It's all about making the finals and all year we haven't been in the hunt so it's all about player developement. 2 of our best 3 players were 20 year olds in Petterd and Grimes. The week before Morton shut down a gun player in Goodes and Jurrah has been an excitement machine since he has come into the side.

As long as youngsters are showing good signs it doesn't matter if we win or lose this year, the priority pick just makes it a bit more of an incentive to lose. When no one is showing anything like from rnds 11 to 13 and we are losing then I would get worried.

If we were in Essendon's position I would be shattered but we aren't. All I want is for our kids to show improvement and for our club to have the best possible chance of recruiting the best possible kids available in the draft and that means losing. I don't have a problem with it and I don't know why people do there is no way to stop perceived tanking unless you want an uneven draft.

Correct. Why are people upset at a system designed to help us? Don't get it.

There is no pleasing some people.....

[rpfc 28,253]

The lottery should to be weighted to how many wins a team have. And PPs should be doled out by the commission.

If every team outside the 8 finishes on 7 wins their chances should be the same.

Two teams on 4 wins, Three teams on 6 and, two on 8 and one on 10 would engender a complicated scenario (someone with a mathematics background could think of an algarthm, I can not) but...

10 wins - 2

8 wins - 6

8 wins - 6

6 wins - 12

6 wins - 12

6 wins - 12

4 wins - 25

4 wins - 25

Or on the strange occurence of:

11 wins - 1

10 wins - 2

9 wins - 4

8 wins - 7

7 wins - 10

6 wins - 16

5 wins - 25

4 wins - 35

I think it works well. And the team(s) balls go the team with the lowest number of wins when there number is called. Example: If the team on 6 wins gets the first pick the team on 4 wins will get another 15 balls to have a better than 50% chance for pick 2.

[Scully The Tank Engine 0]

Yeah sure WC, Collingwood and Adelaide will all be killing each other to win an extra $100K

Exactly. It won't work because those clubs are already immensly wealthy. It wouldn't have any impact on the final results. Not unless you could put up a $100 million dollar purse to be split... (which will never happen here...)

Pissy little financial incentives will never encourage clubs to give 100% effort 100% of the time..

We need a lottery system to ensure that everyone's pulling their weight imo....

[Sir Why You Little 36,963]

Exactly. It won't work because those clubs are already immensly wealthy. It wouldn't have any impact on the final results. Not unless you could put up a $100 million dollar purse to be split... (which will never happen here...)

Pissy little financial incentives will never encourage clubs to give 100% effort 100% of the time..

We need a lottery system to ensure that everyone's pulling their weight imo....

A Lottery System is and always will be a gamble-thus it too cannot be used either.

Which is the precise reason the AFL has not bought it in. If certain Clubs do not get their Tattslotto numbers in the draft, the Following season is as good as Cactus.

Lottery will not work.

[Scully The Tank Engine 0]

A Lottery System is and always will be a gamble-thus it too cannot be used either.

Which is the precise reason the AFL has not bought it in. If certain Clubs do not get their Tattslotto numbers in the draft, the Following season is as good as Cactus.

Lottery will not work.

The fact it is a 'gamble' is the exact reason why it should be introduced.

I guess you want to achieve something different from the draft system than what I do.

I'm for 'equity' of opportunity for clubs accessing young talent...

The fact Hawthorn and St. Kilda can win flags off the back off 'awful' on-field performance, and off mismanagement is a joke to me...

Edited August 7, 2009 by Scully The Tank Engine

[Trisul 664]

The fact it is a 'gamble' is the exact reason why it should be introduced.

I guess you want to achieve something different from the draft system than what I do.

I'm for 'equity' of opportunity for clubs accessing young talent...

The fact Hawthorn and St. Kilda can win flags off the back off 'awful' on-field performance, and off mismanagement is a joke to me...

Does the MFC not also fit this type?

[Scully The Tank Engine 0]

Does the MFC not also fit this type?

After this season, if we win less than 4 & 1/2 games.....yes it does.

Why the hell do we deserve to tear apart the competition in 2013 because we've been so bad for the last few years??

That's what the current draft system does...it rewards miss-management & poor performance..

You're actually better off deliberately losing and running your club into the ground, because that's the fastest way to a flag. Spend 4 years at the bottom rebuilding... Take Franklin & Roughead out of the hawks line-up & they would have been an also-ran in the finals last year at best...

[Einstein 1]

Since people are suggesting a lottery system, I thought I would give a brief history of the NBA lottery system.

The NBA instituted the lottery system in 1985 after the Houston Rockets were accused of tanking in order to get college standout Hakeem Olajuwon. The Rockets finished the season with a 29-53 record, but went only 7-20 over their final 27 games, and won just 1 of their last 10 games. At this time the first pick in the draft was determined by a toss of the coin between the two worst teams in each of the NBA Conferences.

So the NBA initiated the lottery system in 1985. Originally every team missing the playoffs had an equal chance of getting the first pick in the draft. The draw was simply the drawing of envolopes containg the emblem of each of the then 7 clubs that failed to make the playoffs from a barrell. The team drawn first would receive the first pick in the upcoming draft.

But the first NBA Draft lottery draw in 1985 wasn't without controversy. It is alleged that the NBA rigged the draw so that college star Patrick Ewing, overwhelmingly the top college prospect, would go to New York. It is alleged that the NBA wanted Ewing to go to New York because it was a big market club on the east coast (important for TV ratings) that would be for the benefit of the NBA, rather than have Ewing go to a small market club on the west coast. Also, the worst team going into the lottery was the Golden State Warriors who ended up with the 7th pick in the draft at the conclusion of the lottery, which led many to criticise the equity of the lottery system when the draft is supposed to help the poorer performing clubs most.

Here is some footage of the 1985 NBA Draft lottery. It is alleged that the New York Knicks envelope is creased so that NBA Commisioner David Stern would know which envelope to pull from the barrell first. See if you can spot the crease. It is suggested that at 0:45 of the clip, you can see the creased corner of the Knicks envelope. But it is hardly convincing evidence.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mN3OGRGybA

They revised their system in 1987. In that years lottery, only the top 3 picks would be determined by the lottery. Each of the clubs that failed to make the playoffs would still have equal chance of getting the first pick, but only the top 3 selections were decided by the lottery, with the rest of the draft order determined by win-loss records of the other clubs. This meant that the worst team at the very least would recieve the 4th pick in the draft. This format has been retained to this day.

In 1990 the lottery changed to give each of the clubs a certain chance of winning the first pick determined by worst win-loss record to best of each of the then 11 clubs that failed to make the playoffs. The worst club would receive 11 balls in the draw, the second worst 10, and so on.

In 1994 the chances of each club winning the first pick was weighted more in favour of the clubs with the lesser win-loss records, with the worst team receiving 25% chance of getting the first pick and the best of the non-playoff teams receiving 0.5% chance. Critics of this system argued it would encourage tanking to take place.

The draft lottery today is a very involved and complicated system that I will not go into detail here. But in essence it is a draw of 4 ping pong balls numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, with each club receiving a different number of ball combinations giving them a certain percentage chance of winning the first pick depending upon where they finish in the standings, with the worst team receiving the greater number of ball combinations.

In short, 14 teams miss the playoffs.

Team 1 - 25%

Team 2 - 19.9%

Team 3 - 15.6%

Team 4 - 11.9%

Team 5 - 8.8%

Team 6 - 6.3%

Team 7 - 4.3%

Team 8 - 2.8%

Team 9 - 1.7%

Team 10 - 1.1%

Team 11 - 0.8%

Team 12 - 0.7%

Team 13 - 0.6%

Team 14 - 0.5%

Only the first 3 picks in the draft are determined by the lottery. At the very least, the worst team will receive the 4th pick.

The lottery is held behind closed door with only NBA and club officials in attendance. The results of the draw are televised live across the country.

In my experience, tanking talk in the NBA never reaches the fever pitch that it does over here for the AFL. Teams do 'list manage' and their is the temptation to tank in order to receive a greater chance of getting the first pick in the upcoming draft. And I believe there is more of a temptation to tank in the NBA than the AFL, for the simple reason that in basketball a single player can change the prospects of an individual teams success greatly.

The NFL does not have a lottery system. The draft order is determined for all 32 clubs from worst record to SuperBowl champion. In my 25 years of keenly following of the NFL, I can only remember talk of tanking occurring twice, and even then it wasn't the heated debate we have here. Toward the end of 2005, there were various matchups between Tennessee, New Orleans, Houston and San Francisco, where it was widely held that losing would be in the best interests of the clubs involved, with the belief that the first pick would be highly rated Reggie Bush with Vince Young regarded as the likely second pick. In the end Houston finished with the first pick and defied popular opinion by selecting Mario Williams. Funnily, with hingsight, despite criticism at the time, it is looking like Houston made the right decision.

The issue is the priority pick. If there were priority picks in the NBA and NFL, teams would tank. No question. It would be worth far too much to the respective clubs not to. In the NFL, the club with the first pick, (unless they make trades for other picks), does not pick again until selection 33. The reward of 2 picks in the first 3 or 4 selections would be far too great a temptation for clubs not to tank.

Would a lottery system discourage tanking in the AFL? Possibly. But it's a matter of balance between discouraging tanking and rewarding poorly performing teams with help via the draft. I wouldn't be against instituting a lottery system, and I think the NBA probably have it refined as well as it could be, striking a reasonable balance between discouraging the temptation to tank and giving poorly performing clubs a good chance of receiving high draft picks from which to rebuild from.

But if the priority picks remain in their current form, clubs with the opportunity to collect a couple of picks in the first handful of draft selections, will always tank. And why wouldn't they.

I would keep priority picks, so to speak. But I would not make them the temptation they are today. I would just give teams that win less than 5 games in a season an extra pick in the 4th round of the draft. If a team finishes with less than 5 wins two years in a row, they would receive an extra 4th and 5th round selection. Not much, but the thinking being that if a team has a poor or ageing list, one or two extra later round picks gives them a chance to turn over their list and bring in one or two project players. That's all. Would clubs still tank in order to receive an extra 4th round pick? Maybe. But it's not the temptation that it is today.

The system needs to be changed. Just not this year thankyou. :D

[Ryan Dee 140]

Since people are suggesting a lottery system, I thought I would give a brief history of the NBA lottery system.

This is like 1500 words or something lol.

Did you write all of this?

[Einstein 1]

This is like 1500 words or something lol.

Did you write all of this?

Yep. Impressed? Got help with some articles off the net.

Just goes to show kids, university isn't a complete waste of time.

Edited August 7, 2009 by Einstein

[Ryan Dee 140]

Yep. Impressed? Got help with some articles off the net.

Just goes to show kids, university isn't a complete waste of time.

If you typed all that up urself for a forum thats not a bad effort. Not bad at all haha. B)

Edited August 7, 2009 by Mr Morton

[titan_uranus 24,970]

Only the first 3 picks in the draft are determined by the lottery. At the very least, the worst team will receive the 4th pick.

This is the way the AFL might go, if they choose a lottery path. It would be an absolute disaster if, based on this year, Hawthorn got pick 1 and Melbourne got pick 8 (I realise the probabilites of that happening are very small, but it's a possibility nonetheless).

Just to play devil's advocate, in 2007 the Bulldogs finished bottom 4, with 9 and a half wins. That's not such a dud season, but they'd have a pretty good chance of picking up a star in a lottery scenario.

[Rod Grinter Riot Squad 5,654]

The draft system needs to change to stop all this talk about tanking.

Agree with the suggestion, but would lessen the pool of teams that can get the first pick. Ie bottom 6 or bottom 4 then by ladder order.

Sorry if already suggested, can't be bothered reading all right now

[Rogue 585]

Lottery system are pretty bullet proof. Like the more chance you have the most likely you will get that pick etc.

It's still random. We could receive the 8th (or 16th) rank in the draft in 2008 and 2009, despite being the worst side going around.

Just goes to show kids, university isn't a complete waste of time.

Demonland, on the other hand...

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Yep this system keeps us all interested and involved each day.

If for example in this years Draft the Melbourne Football Club pulled out 4 dud balls in the lottery. Supporters & maybe even sponsors would walk away next year.

The System we have now aint great, but a lottery is potential disaster

.

Yup. Too much risk for not enough benefit.

[biggestred 5,015]

ive got this amazingly simple idea whereby you just do the entire order of the draft, picks 1-16, on the number of games won over 3 years, with the least amount first.

then teams like collingwood in 05 who play finals either side wouldnt get pick 3.

[titan_uranus 24,970]

ive got this amazingly simple idea whereby you just do the entire order of the draft, picks 1-16, on the number of games won over 3 years, with the least amount first.

then teams like collingwood in 05 who play finals either side wouldnt get pick 3.

This strategy has the problem of rewarding currently successful teams over currently crap teams by placing unfair weight on previous years. For example, there might be a time when a team finishes, over three years, bottom 4, then 9-12, then plays a prelim or even a GF. Yet this team would be getting a top 10 pick. Similarly, you could have a team that plays finals one year, then misses finals, then bottoms out, but they end up with a pick behind some of the presently better teams.

I think what all this talk shows is that there really isn't a drafting system that is going to solve everyone's problems.