THE BIG QUESTION!

[old55 22,853]

THE ONE IN A MONTH'S TIME AND ONE IN A YEAR'S TIME WILL NOT BE TOUCHED BY GC

That's broadly true but not exactly true - the 2009 draft is "compromised".

The qualifying age for the 2009 draft is being raised by 4 months so approximately 1/3 of players will roll-over into the next year.

The pool will be approximately 2/3 of a "normal" pool.

I'd still be keen - perhaps even more keen because of this - to have picks 1 & 2

[Guest Schtacker]

That's broadly true but not exactly true - the 2009 draft is "compromised".

The qualifying age for the 2009 draft is being raised by 4 months so approximately 1/3 of players will roll-over into the next year.

The pool will be approximately 2/3 of a "normal" pool.

I'd still be keen - perhaps even more keen because of this - to have picks 1 & 2

so they are essentially strengthening the 09 draft(1+1/3rd) at the expense of the 08 draft(2/3rds)? Doesn't this mean the 09 draft has DOUBLE the talent of 08? AND they are giving the massive concessions of that draft to GC? Sheesh

In any case it won't really affect us provided there are no top4-pick contenders that are cut off by the raising of the date - even if there is we just get the 5th best pick anyway

[45HG 1,539]

No, it means that 2010 will have a better, and bigger, talent pool because the kids that are too young for next year's draft, will be old enough the year after

[Guest Schtacker]

No, it means that 2010 will have a better, and bigger, talent pool because the kids that are too young for next year's draft, will be old enough the year after

sorry you're right I mean to say

"strengthening the 10 draft(1+1/3rd) at the expense of the 09 draft(2/3rds)? "

[45HG 1,539]

Yeah.

But in '10 we'll hopefully already on the way up anyway, not to mention that 6 of the first 10(?) picks i think are going to GC, so we won't get anything anyway.

Even if '09 is "compromised" pick 1 and 2 will obviously be more beneficial than just one pick. I hope our team improves immediately, and i beleive it will.

We will put better, more consistent performances in on the park and our processes will start to click over. However, i honestly just don't see us being able to win more than a handful of games next year, though obviously that will come later.

[Guest Schtacker]

Yeah.

But in '10 we'll hopefully already on the way up anyway, not to mention that 6 of the first 10(?) picks i think are going to GC, so we won't get anything anyway.

Even if '09 is "compromised" pick 1 and 2 will obviously be more beneficial than just one pick. I hope our team improves immediately, and i beleive it will.

We will put better, more consistent performances in on the park and our processes will start to click over. However, i honestly just don't see us being able to win more than a handful of games next year, though obviously that will come later.

yeah wasn't bemoaning the '10 draft in relation to us, we better bloody well not be on the bottom then, just commenting on what a bounty the GC receive on account of getting all those picks in a draft that is essentially twice as strong as the year before it

Yes, as I said, 1+2 will most likely be the best 2 available anyway. There might be a kid who is a month over the cutoff, in which case we will effectively get 1+3

"I hope our team improves immediately, and i beleive it will.

We will put better, more consistent performances in on the park and our processes will start to click over. However, i honestly just don't see us being able to win more than a handful of games next year, though obviously that will come later."

I agree that is the best and most likely outcome. We improve to the point we are not a shameful joke we were this year, but this does not translate to any more than FOUR(4) wins

I am honestly perplexed that anyone could disagree

[Tigers Dayz 2]

We will put better, more consistent performances in on the park and our processes will start to click over. However, i honestly just don't see us being able to win more than a handful of games next year, though obviously that will come later."

I agree that is the best and most likely outcome. We improve to the point we are not a shameful joke we were this year, but this does not translate to any more than FOUR(4) wins

I am honestly perplexed that anyone could disagree

So if we improve and Bailey's game plan comes together and 5-6 wins appears possible, given 2 wins will come from WCE depending on the draw, are you recommending tanking, er, sorry list management, already?

[Guest Schtacker]

So if we improve and Bailey's game plan comes together and 5-6 wins appears possible, given 2 wins will come from WCE depending on the draw, are you recommending tanking, er, sorry list management, already?

are you telling me you would give up a top4 draft pick for ONE or TWO extra wins? Like what happened in 2007?

as already discussed, tanking (losing on purpose) is not the issue here - it's whether or not we would better off if it worked out that way

the idea that we would actually lose on purpose from the beginning of the season is ridiculous and actually impossible if you think about it

[Tigers Dayz 2]

are you telling me you would give up a top4 draft pick for ONE or TWO extra wins? Like what happened in 2007?

as already discussed, tanking (losing on purpose) is not the issue here - it's whether or not we would better off if it worked out that way

the idea that we would actually lose on purpose from the beginning of the season is ridiculous and actually impossible if you think about it

I think we need to get over 2007. I will say here and now that I was a supporter of MFC only winning no more than 4 in 2008, for the draft picks.

The advantages for winning no more than 4 games are that we get to choose the players we want for 2 of the first 4 picks.

Against that, these are the top 4 draft picks over the last 15 years who have won premierships; Hodge, Headland, Roughead, Ottens, Heffernan, Judd, Ellis, Croad, Fosdike.

Not a huge list for supposedly so much value. Measure that against the financial values of Sponsorship, Membership, Gate; which may depend on winning games.

[Yze_Magic 3]

Ummm we have bottomed out the last two seasons, and people want to do it again in 2009?

No thanks.

get Ryan O'Keefe, get everyone fit and push for the Finals next season.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,389]

Winning 5 or 6 games next year would be the worst thing that has happened to the MFC this decade.

Either we push for the finals and win every second week, or win 4 games. We MUST take advantage of the last uncompromised draft as we need to recruit talent more than any other side. The list overhaul is no-where near complete.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,389]

get Ryan O'Keefe, get everyone fit and push for the Finals next season.

You know that won't happen YM.

The club couldn't attract a Division 4 player from the Eastern Footy League in our current state.

[Tigers Dayz 2]

Winning 5 or 6 games next year would be the worst thing that has happened to the MFC this decade.

Either we push for the finals and win every second week, or win 4 games. We MUST take advantage of the last uncompromised draft as we need to recruit talent more than any other side. The list overhaul is no-where near complete.

Tell us why we need to win no more than 4 games to overhaul our list. Show me the evidence that 2 of the first 4 draft picks will then drive us to finals and premiership success. And don't give me any of that crap about 2007, or how I could not be a fit and proper supporter!

Then advise how we survive another year at the bottom of the ladder from a Membership, Sponsorship and Gate perspective.

It's time to work everyone as hard as possible. Another 'list management' year won't do anyone associated with the club any good.

[Guest Schtacker]

Tell us why we need to win no more than 4 games to overhaul our list. Show me the evidence that 2 of the first 4 draft picks will then drive us to finals and premiership success. And don't give me any of that crap about 2007, or how I could not be a fit and proper supporter!

Then advise how we survive another year at the bottom of the ladder from a Membership, Sponsorship and Gate perspective.

It's time to work everyone as hard as possible. Another 'list management' year won't do anyone associated with the club any good.

How can you argue it is NOT to our advantage to have it? Wouldn't you rather have Kruezer AND Cotchin instead of David Myers or somebody?

As far as the gate/members/sponsors side is concerned, we'll survive - we have been crap for 44 years one more is not going to matter.

Do NOT have the cattle at this stage. An extra pick COULD mean a Judd or a Franklin in the side which would make a world of difference.

People say it's a raffle, well, what we are doing is buying two tickets in that raffle which obviously increases our chances of winning! Or maybe we get two prizes!

[Rogue 585]

It's time to work everyone as hard as possible. Another 'list management' year won't do anyone associated with the club any good.

Four wins will be far better than 5-6.

[Tigers Dayz 2]

How can you argue it is NOT to our advantage to have it? Wouldn't you rather have Kruezer AND Cotchin instead of David Myers or somebody?

As far as the gate/members/sponsors side is concerned, we'll survive - we have been crap for 44 years one more is not going to matter.

Do NOT have the cattle at this stage. An extra pick COULD mean a Judd or a Franklin in the side which would make a world of difference.

People say it's a raffle, well, what we are doing is buying two tickets in that raffle which obviously increases our chances of winning! Or maybe we get two prizes!

David Myers, from Essendon?? Sorry I don't understand.

I think the 44 years of crap will come home to roost fairly quickly if we don't improve. Got to get wins, money, members and gate, or syonara baby.

We have some cattle now with 5 or so more coming. The footy dept lives or dies on those choices. An additional pick in 2009 vs some immediate improvement is no longer a choice we can live with. We cannot have another bad year to get one additional pick. Other than the drafts of 2000, 2001 and 2007 the extra pick may not have helped much compared to what you lose financially languishing. It comes down to sensible selection through the draft

Let me explain; Trent Ormond-Allen 1993, Don Cockatoo-Collins 1995, Brent Grgic 1996, Chris Lamb 1998, Scott Thompson 2000 (wanted to go home),Luke Molan 2001, Nick Smith 2002. These are all first round national draft picks. We have done better lately IMO.

Too late for raffles.

Four wins will be far better than 5-6.

We just need to do our best. We may only win 4. If that happens there will be questions asked about the game plan.

[Guest Schtacker]

David Myers, from Essendon?? Sorry I don't understand.

I think the 44 years of crap will come home to roost fairly quickly if we don't improve. Got to get wins, money, members and gate, or syonara baby.

We have some cattle now with 5 or so more coming. The footy dept lives or dies on those choices. An additional pick in 2009 vs some immediate improvement is no longer a choice we can live with. We cannot have another bad year to get one additional pick. Other than the drafts of 2000, 2001 and 2007 the extra pick may not have helped much compared to what you lose financially languishing. It comes down to sensible selection through the draft

Let me explain; Trent Ormond-Allen 1993, Don Cockatoo-Collins 1995, Brent Grgic 1996, Chris Lamb 1998, Scott Thompson 2000 (wanted to go home),Luke Molan 2001, Nick Smith 2002. These are all first round national draft picks. We have done better lately IMO.

Too late for raffles.

We just need to do our best. We may only win 4. If that happens there will be questions asked about the game plan.

Myers was pick 6... would you rather him or to have Kruezer AND Cotchin on the list?

The way I see it there is a very good chance we get an at least handy player with that extra pick - it is like if you a lucky dip for two players out of the following group (top4s)

Matthew Kreuzer

Trent Cotchin

Chris Masten

Cale Morton

Bryce Gibbs

Scott Gumbleton

Lachlan Hansen

Matthew Leuenberger

Marc Murphy

Dale Thomas

Xavier Ellis

Josh Kennedy

Brett Deledio

Jarryd Roughead

Ryan Griffen

Richard Tambling

Adam Cooney

Andrew Walker

Colin Sylvia

Farren Ray

Now come on that's an excellent group of players - we can expect to get 2 players of that ilk, probably the better ones like Cooney and Thomas - to me it's a tremendous advantage over a pick 6ish and I think you aren't appreciating that - as you seem to think it's more to do with luck than it actually is. There is a hardly a dud in that group and half of them are out-and-out guns

[Tigers Dayz 2]

Fair point, but I'm not sure 8 of the 20 names above would help us to a flag, so it is a bit of a raffle, but still a good hit rate.

No doubt priority picks have helped Hawthorn, St Kilda, Carlton, Collingwood, but they've got the support base to bottom out for a lengthy period and survive.

Three of those teams may still not win a flag in the next 3-5 years.

I'm still not convinced we would "manage" not more than 4 wins for the additional choice of a top 4 bovine, and risk further loss of our already faltering support base.

[Sir Why You Little 36,670]

OH MY GOD

Have you read any of this thread at all? If you have, you have completely missed the important point on which the whole discussion is based.... I mean what the hell do you think we are all talking about?

How many times do I have to tell people something so simple

THERE ARE TWO MORE UNTAMPERED DRAFTS BEFORE THE GC COMES INTO THE COMP IN 2011

THE ONE IN A MONTH'S TIME AND ONE IN A YEAR'S TIME WILL NOT BE TOUCHED BY GC

WE WILL QUALIFY FOR A PRIORITY PICK AT THE START OF THE DRAFT IF WE WIN 4 OR LESS IN 09

Please, i'm begging all of you, remember this and don't commit thread pollution by coming in and stating things that are just plain WRONG

win 4 or less = 2 picks in the top 4

win 5 or more = 1 pick around the 5-10 mark

this is FACT. this is so simple to understand.

FFS

Dont take me for a fool!! 2009 Draft is compromised. The age requirements are shifting so a lot of those presently elligable will not be ready till 2010.

This is the last draft where all the talent is available. After this year getting early Draft Picks will be a cherished memory. Don't forget Western Sydney will follow in the next 3-5 years God forbid. The way to make our club attractive is to start demanding a winning culture from Supporters Officials & Players.

We blew our chance of 2 years of bottoming out in 2007 & cartank knew it.

[Guest Schtacker]

After this year getting early Draft Picks will be a cherished memory

except for draft pick 1 and 2 which we will receive the following year.

Having picks 1,2,3,5,7,9 etc unavailable is a real compromise. The chance we might have to settle for the 3rd best kid instead of the 2nd because of the age requirement is far less of a compromise. 09 draft is a bounty for the taking and it's a bounty we just to have to take

[Sir Why You Little 36,670]

except for draft pick 1 and 2 which we will receive the following year.

Having picks 1,2,3,5,7,9 etc unavailable is a real compromise. The chance we might have to settle for the 3rd best kid instead of the 2nd because of the age requirement is far less of a compromise. 09 draft is a bounty for the taking and it's a bounty we just to have to take

My understanding of the 2009 Draft is that the GC will have almost unlimited picks of all 17 year olds, add to that the shifting of age requirements i mentioned above makes this years draft the last one to be "as we know it" If these new teams were not being Manufactured i would totally agree with you, but i dont think we can afford to ever think like that again as the safety net is so much smaller from next year. I dont believe it is worth bottoming out for a whole year for a couple of 18 year olds who may be as successful as Luke Molan. The MFC must be a Strong Business not a cozy little soup kitchen for losers.

[Guest Schtacker]

My understanding of the 2009 Draft is that the GC will have almost unlimited picks of all 17 year olds, add to that the shifting of age requirements i mentioned above makes this years draft the last one to be "as we know it" If these new teams were not being Manufactured i would totally agree with you, but i dont think we can afford to ever think like that again as the safety net is so much smaller from next year. I dont believe it is worth bottoming out for a whole year for a couple of 18 year olds who may be as successful as Luke Molan. The MFC must be a Strong Business not a cozy little soup kitchen for losers.

well mate your argument would have some merit if you had bothered to get your facts straight and not completely miss the point

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/05/2356155.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_AFL_Draft

2007 draft = Kruezer

2008 = Watts

2009 = Scully or whatever

2010 = Gold Coast plunders

SO, NOW do you accept what I am saying in that it is most certainly in our advantage to finish on 4 wins or less next year?

poor form

[Rogue 585]

We just need to do our best. We may only win 4. If that happens there will be questions asked about the game plan.

By who? If we only win four, it's not necessarily the game plan.

Our list is a long way behind many of the other teams.

I expect us to be much more competitive (%) than this year, but I'm not sure that'll be reflected in the wins/losses.

PS. When it comes to the draft, I don't think comparisons from 15 years are are very relevant, considering the advancements in talent scouting/recruiting.

[Sir Why You Little 36,670]

well mate your argument would have some merit if you had bothered to get your facts straight and not completely miss the point

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/05/2356155.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_AFL_Draft

2007 draft = Kruezer

2008 = Watts

2009 = Scully or whatever

2010 = Gold Coast plunders

SO, NOW do you accept what I am saying in that it is most certainly in our advantage to finish on 4 wins or less next year?

poor form

The point is if we were going to bottom out 2007-8 was the time to do it as you illustrate. Last year we stuffed up, our coach of the day then went to Carltank soon after. I don't think we should waste all of next year for one Draft pick. You Do-Fair enough but don't make out that i am a fool. The MFC has got to start looking like winning club or we shall not keep anyone, let alone a first draft pick.

[Tigers Dayz 2]

By who? If we only win four, it's not necessarily the game plan.

By supporters, members and sponsors, and those folk who pay their money. If it's not because of game plan and execution, then what is it?

Our list is a long way behind many of the other teams.

Why? We have a year's further experience under the belt of Morton, Garland, Farmer, Warnock, Bate, Jones, Buckley, Dunn, Frawley, CJ, PJ, Petterd. Wonna, Maric and Grimes have had a sniff. McLean and most other longer term injured players should return.

I expect us to be much more competitive (%) than this year, but I'm not sure that'll be reflected in the wins/losses.

I do, because of expected improvement in the above players and their ability to execute Bailey's game plan, whatever that is.

PS. When it comes to the draft, I don't think comparisons from 15 years are are very relevant, considering the advancements in talent scouting/recruiting.

Fair enough.